DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2019 NFL Season 2019 NFL Draft Move Up

No. Honestly, I think trading down might our best bet.

Never trade up if it’s not for a QB.

We have (2) 3rd round picks and (3) 5th round picks, so it might be a good idea to trade up a little later in the draft, rather than the 1st round. Maybe you try to jump back into the 2nd round, or to move up in the 3rd round with a package involving those extra picks in the 3rd and 5th.

I like the thought of White. I just can't see taking a WR in the first round. Metcalf looks good, but IMO, there are too many good defensive players to pass up for a WR.

I know that popular opinion is we should go DT, LB, or WR, but I subscribe to the theory that the 4 most important positions are QB, LT, CB and DE/Edge Rusher. I *think* we're set at QB, so I'd like to go DE, CB, or LT - in that order - at 17. That assumes we re-sign Greg Robinson at LT, and it also assumes there's no Joe Thomas type talent at LT that will be there at 17. A dominant pass rusher at LDE, opposite Myles Garrett, would go a long way towards making this a dominant defense. Ditto, another shutdown CB to put opposite Denzel Ward. So those are my two spots to go for at 17, DE or CB. Reportedly, this is a very deep draft for interior D-Line, so I'd go there with our 2nd round pick. I have no idea about the LBs in this draft, and I think we're okay at WR right now if we re-sign Perriman.

I'm just not sure how important it is to have that one #1 WR.

The Bengals have had AJ Green. What have they won?

The Cardinals have had the great Larry Fitzgerald, and they haven't won consistently.

How many championships has Julio Jones won in Atlanta?

Deandre Hopkins? Mike Evans? Adam Thielen?

I think it's far more important to have a balanced receiving corps, and if you have a star, great, but don't over-invest in one.

Heck, the Steelers had pretty good ones in Brown and Smith-Schuster, and they were found in the 6th and late 3nd.

I think that it's going to be easier to "find" good receivers now that we have Baker.

Using this logic there is no point in getting any highly talented skill player, because modern history shows that the Pats win the Superbowl with the isle of misfit toys.

We should focus on how to build our team and not how the Pats build theirs. As they say, results are not typical.

Trade up to the back of the first to get a team option.

Yes. But I didn’t think that’s what we are discussing.

If it were up to me, we’d trade back every year. Future picks are gold, especially when you are trading back from the middle of the first round.

And you'd be spitroasted alive on here.

I don't know about trading up in the first round, but I think that we will probably trade up in one or two later rounds because we have 11 picks and we can perhaps acquire a guy or two who can help us win now.

Thankfully, Sashi is gone and we don't have to worry about playing to lose so we can win in the future. Dorsey wants to win now and in the future. I prefer that philosophy.

Belichick uses analytics, but he would never tank and in fact, he never did tank.

Thank God that we have talent so that we can build now! We don't have to play those losers that Pettine and Farmer got for us. Thank God we had a plan and stuck with it. How mad would the forum be if we currently had Trubisky instead of Myles Garrett? Sometimes, you have to look at the long term and not the immediate short term.

Except for when he did in 1993, when Todd Philcox started 3 games after BB cut Kosar when Testaverde was down with a separated shoulder. They were 5-3 contenders when Kosar was cut and they finished the season 7-9. The question isn't whether Kosar was better than Testaverde - at that point in his career, he wasn't - but please, Todd Philcox?

http://www.nfl.com/schedules/1993/REG/BROWNS

Take one of our 3rd's and a couple 5th's and move up into the late 2nd, that gives us 1 1st 2 2nd's and a 3rd on day one and day two ...

Note: The guy that whines about Sashi being discussed in a thread is the first one to bring him up.....again.

Note: The guy who complains about me making things personal is the first guy to make things personal yet again.

Dave, you are not going to like this, but I don't think BB was tanking. I think he believed that Kosar was damaged goods and that he wasn't buying into what BB was selling. I think he believed Kosar to be a guy w/diminished skills, a guy who didn't buy in, and a guy who had too much power due to all of the love from the fans and local media.

I don't think he was tanking at all.

I get that. We might do that. I really have no idea.

I just think that we might move from the middle of round 2 to the top of round 2 or the bottom of 1. And we might move from the middle of round 3 or 4 to the top of one of those rounds.

Think about this. Say Hakeem Butler is available in the top half round 2, would you consider trading up to get him?

It'll cost to much to trade up in the 1st round. Just go BPA.

I think it would be worth trading up in round 2 or 3. We have the picks to do so, and the price won't be as steep.

I don't now what we will do or what is the best move, but this is what I've been trying to say. It makes more sense to me, but that doesn't mean I am right. Just a feeling...

Tanking or not, it was sheer hubris on BB's part to go forward with Todd Philcox when Kosar was on the team, until Bill unceremoniously dumped him. I think Bill himself would say that he handled the situation poorly, in retrospect. Anyway, its a long time ago and it doesn't really matter anymore. I have heard Kosar state his admiration for Belichick, and also that they have become friends over the years. If Bernie can let it go, I certainly can too. I just think of it as a sad chapter in Browns history, because IMO the events of 1993 - the sacking of a local icon - laid the foundation for the estrangement of Art Modell from the Cleveland community, which led to the move.

We view the situation differently, but I understand and respect your position.

I can't argue w/that.

I honestly no longer think it's best to trade up in the draft. Instead we should use our extra picks to trade for established NFL players. The Pats have actually been doing that as of late, allowing their free agents to leave, which nets them even more draft picks the following year through compensatory picks. They're set up for 6 picks in the first 3 round this year. 2 of which come from compensatory picks.

I would trade up a couple spots for an inside pass rusher like Oliver or an ILB like Devin White. Not much else would interest me. But that's just me. No idea what Dorsey will do, nor do I care to speculate. And, of course, you would have to have a willing trade partner that won't rob you blind. (Not that Dorsey would allow that to happen.) We'll know in a couple months.

The problem with trading up from 17 is that we would have to trade up pretty far to get a significantly more talented player.



(https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/)

The above graph is from stretches from 1980 to 2005, as you can see there is a pretty steep drop off around pick #6. This means to dramatically increase our chances at getting a great player we'd have to trade up a good amount. In order to do that we'd have to give up a good amount (probably a future first round pick). Giving up future draft capital is never a good idea. Furthermore, trading up one or two spots won't increase our odds of getting a great player, so we'd just be giving up value for only a little bit of an increase in odds at drafting a better player.

The draft is largely a guessing game. If you are playing a guessing game, you'd rather have more guesses (draft picks) than less.

I say this every year (except last year with the #1 pick) -- I'd trade down every time. Literally every year I'd trade out of my first round pick (if other teams are willing). As I said above, if you are picking in certain areas of the draft your chances of picking a superior player are not much better if you are picking after the top sixish. Trade down, pick up more guesses, and pick the best player when your name comes up.

You all just love your draft picks, and stockpiling them.

No thanks, Eric Mangini. Don't want to trade down. I'd trade up for Devin White, but that is an early opinion. I might change my mind later.

By trade up, I mean into the top 7 or so. He seems like he could be a stud

Wasn't Mangini's first year the draft where our first pick was abeau Bell in the fourth round or did that fall under RAC?

I just don't see a lot of the most highly rated WRs making a huge difference for their teams. When you have a QB who spreads the ball around, a "difference maker" WR is still just going to be one of the corps. Yes, you want competent WRs ..... but those highly drafted, highest end type guys often really don't seem to be difference makers.

Let's look at the top 20 WRs in the NFL in yards last year:

Julio Jones. 1st round.
Deandre Hopkins. 3rd round.
Mike Evans. 4th round
Tyreek Hill. 5th round
Smith-Schuster. 2nd round
Michael Thomas. 2nd round
Devante Adams. 2nd round
Adam Thielen. UDFA
Antonio Brown. 6th round
TY Hilton. 3rd round
Robert Woods. 2nd round
Brandin Cooks. 1st round
Keenen Allen. 3rd round
Kenny Golladay. 3rd round
Odell Beckhem. 1st round
Tyler Boyd. 2nd round
Stefon Diggs. 5th round


Those are the WRs in the top 20 in yards last year. The other 3 are TE. 3 of the WR were taken in the 1st round. 2 of the 1st rounders in this list lost more than they won last year, though, in fairness, Beckhem JR was hurt much of the year.

Find receivers with abilities you feel you can develop. Banking on a 1st round WR to come in and be a superhero might not be the best option. Often they are nothing special, whereas other positions have a better value and success ratio.

J/C - Unless someone tumbles, I think we will stand pat or maybe trade down a few spots. I think, like a few others have already commented, where we may trade is up from our 3rd round slots or even maybe up from our 2nd using the mid round picks.

Murphy, Wilkins, Burns, Polite, Sweat, Adderley, Thompson may all be there at 17 but I reckon at least a couple of those guys may slide a little.

Now if Quinnen Williams or Ed Oliver was there at 12 ish maybe then you trade some of that mid round candy to pick them up. However, I think that's a pipe dream on Williams and Oliver may slide due to concerns re: his size but I think he's going to be a studly 3-T.