I think analytics have a place in football. A fairly significant place. I believe in using every tool that is available to you and analytics is one of those tools.
To be clear, I consider it a "tool" rather than a mantra. The problem is that relying strictly on analytics to the degree we wanted to use it has never resulted in championships.
The only other thing I want to add is to make a comment about Joe Banner. Dude was probably the Godfather of analytics, yet the same people who love Sashi hated Banner.
Banner hired Sashi. He started the entire thing when he was in Philly and brought it to Cleveland. According to Wickersham's article, Sashi went to Haslam and made a pitch to return to the things that Banner had started a few years earlier.
In my perfect world, I think it would be great if you could somehow get a football guy like Dorsey and an analytics/business guy like Banner to work hand-in-hand w/the football guy having the ultimate say while having a ton of respect for what the analytics guy has to offer.
I think we are now developing that. Dorsey listens to Depo and Depo understands if Dorsey goes another way. There may have been, or may be, times where Depo changes Dorseys mind on a player.
I think top picks is pretty easy for both sides except at QB. It's starting in maybe round 3 where analytics is of it's biggest value. Helping to sort out all the players who bunch up on the traditional grading scale in the mid to late rounds. That is where you probably see players pop out the most..either to the good or bad side of things.
Good thing we nailed it at QB last year with both Dorsey and Depo in agreement that Baker was the guy we needed to pick.
This is a very good distinction you've made. I don't think it's coincidence or happy accident that we've found guys like Schobert, Larry O, and Avery.
"Hey, I'm a reasonable guy. But I've just experienced some very unreasonable things." -Jack Burton
-It looks like the Harvard Boys know what they are doing after all.
Hasnt that been the same way it's always been, though? But now we have a new name for it.
In any sport, people scout , they evaluate, look at stats and measurables, learn about the person, make their selections and after that, they hope they got it right.
It has. Baseball has always been ahead in that area...tracking ERS, OBP and things like that since the beginning really. In football it was just yards gains, 40 times, things like that. Probably the first extended metric in football was YAC...when did that become a talking point, early 90's maybe? Now we hear about yards after contact and other things.
It's just scouting with the numbers and not with a stopwatch. They both bring value.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
I think analytics have a place in football. A fairly significant place. I believe in using every tool that is available to you and analytics is one of those tools.
To be clear, I consider it a "tool" rather than a mantra. The problem is that relying strictly on analytics to the degree we wanted to use it has never resulted in championships.
The only other thing I want to add is to make a comment about Joe Banner. Dude was probably the Godfather of analytics, yet the same people who love Sashi hated Banner.
Banner hired Sashi. He started the entire thing when he was in Philly and brought it to Cleveland. According to Wickersham's article, Sashi went to Haslam and made a pitch to return to the things that Banner had started a few years earlier.
In my perfect world, I think it would be great if you could somehow get a football guy like Dorsey and an analytics/business guy like Banner to work hand-in-hand w/the football guy having the ultimate say while having a ton of respect for what the analytics guy has to offer.
I think we are now developing that. Dorsey listens to Depo and Depo understands if Dorsey goes another way. There may have been, or may be, times where Depo changes Dorseys mind on a player.
I think top picks is pretty easy for both sides except at QB. It's starting in maybe round 3 where analytics is of it's biggest value. Helping to sort out all the players who bunch up on the traditional grading scale in the mid to late rounds. That is where you probably see players pop out the most..either to the good or bad side of things.
Good thing we nailed it at QB last year with both Dorsey and Depo in agreement that Baker was the guy we needed to pick.
This is a very good distinction you've made. I don't think it's coincidence or happy accident that we've found guys like Schobert, Larry O, and Avery.
Thanks. Like I said, the top 2-3 rounds are fairly easy to get right on a long curve average. In years past it seemed like it was more luck then anything if you hit some later round picks.
I think Higgins is a good example of a pick in round 5. He got off to a slow start, but is showing his worth now. Everybody seems to think we need to sign him again.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
I thought so too, which is I skimmed the article before posting paying very careful to this part, the only part about Dorsey's first draft.
"For once, Haslam didn't parade in friends to watch last year's draft. It was a scout's draft. The analytics team had limited influence. Dorsey was skeptical of their helpfulness when he first got the job. He told an associate that he didn't need "[something] nerds" to tell him how to evaluate players. He's since warmed up, sources say."
He can spot talent, he got fired from KC for mismanaging the budget. The benefit of all of us, we learn from our mistakes, we become better. Dors is a baller
Using analytics to draft makes NO SENSE ... NONE ... it isn’t baseball where its the pitcher against the batter ... the fielder either makes the play or he don’t ... baseball is an INDIVIDUAL SPORT .. the SS either makes the play or he don’t ... its not dependent on the other 10 guys around him doing there jobs like it does in football ....
BASEBALL is 100% more suited to ANALYTICS than football is when it comes to evaluating players performance and talent ...
And at the end of the day .... they can talk til their blue in the face ... how many World Series rings does the king of analytics have? ... after his stint in Oakland he never really did anything ... his last and longest run was with the Mets ... they STUNK just as bad when he was there as they did before and after he arrived ... ANALYTICS really helped them .. ... they prolly had to much money for analytics to work ... ...
He made one of the DUMBEST TRADES in baseball history when he ran the dodgers ... kinda like trading up for Kizer when he was here ... ....
We made so many DUMB ASS moves when him and Sashi were paired together ... i mean look at how many choices we have in the STUPIDEST MOVE contest ...
1. drafting Corey Coleman at #15 2. Drafting 4 WR’s in the weakest WR draft in decades 3. Signing KENNY BRITT 4. Moving up to draft Kizer 5. The QB rooms we had under Sashi/Analytics boy 6. Drafting Cody Kessler 3 or 4 rounds before ANYONE had him projected ... OK .. maybe this one doesn’t belong here but it was DUMB AS HELL ...
And the analytics department sure has improved since we hired King John as opposed to when the lawyer ran it .... but the menZas will tell u it’s the analytics department ...
I will say ... I could see where it has a place HISTORICALLY in moving down a few spots from late in round 1 to the upper part of rnd 2 or trading back for future picks as the draft moves on ... i could see where it has value there .... but as far as SINGLING OUT A PLAYER ... give me a break ... IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE ...
And even historically it boils down to the PLAYERS that are available ... like in bone’s thread ... IF it makes sense to trade up from 17 to 11 for someone we really covet ... U DO IT NOW cause we have a TON OF TALENT ... where on the other hand if the players available at #17 are all ranked very very closely to the guys u have at 22 or 23 (just an example .. ) then it makers sense to trade down ...
It definelty has a place in teams tendencies depending on down and distances ... it’s HUGE there ... although I’ll tell u straight up ... UNLESS I COULD DOMINATE THE PATS doing what i tend to do in situations ... i would do whatever is the exact opposite of what the analytics say i have done in the past way more often than not cause u know the hoodie has done his homework ...
I think there are certain positions that analytics can be more helpful than others.
On defense, I'd say less helpful with defensive secondary, as coverage b/w Corners and Safeties can change and you truly depend on the guys around you. Same with the LB spots.
I think the most useful analytic spots would be on the d-line, between DE and DT spots. You may say being double teamed would throw off some of those numbers, but the beauty with analytics is you can breakdown the numbers and separate those 1 on 1 moments vs being double teamed moments and come up with a conclusion.
On offense, I think style of play calling could greatly shift the numbers, as well as the level of your competition. I believe the HB and QB spots would be difficult to use analytics based on that. I don't think there would be true apple to apple comparisons.
The most useful analytic spots to me would be O-line. More consistency there than any other offensive positions.
Not sure on WR and TE. I think there is some value there, but their success hinges on the QB, and again style of play calling. I think I'd go more with my eyes on most offensive positions (outside of oline), versus relying on the numbers to make a decision.
You know, the real ignorance on DT is this constant purposeful misrepresentation of other people's positions and points of view. Literally NO ONE is taking anything away from Dorsey. Not even members of the Mysterious Sashi Cult. And the only people making the claim that Dorsey has gone 100% analytics or that he should are people like you and Vers who again, are purposefully misrepresenting other poster's positions.
I've noticed the critics of analytics in Cleveland fall in to 1 of 3 categories:
1) they don't know WHAT it is 2) they know WHAT it is, but don't understand how it's being implemented and used or 3) they know WHAT it is and HOW it's being implemented and used, but still choose to misrepresent the issue.
I get if some people don't see the need for analytics, or simply just prefer the old school way of finding talent. That's cool. Personally I find that concept a bit limiting, but I get it, and I wouldn't consider someone ignorant for holding that position.
Baseball and analytics probably are a naturally suited pair. But it's truly ignorant to believe and push this notion that they are trying to fit football into a baseball shoe. BAtting averages, etc ARE NOT analytics. They are a component of a SYSTEM. and like with any other system, components can be changed out.
And someone, please correct me if I'm wrong, but when DePo was first developing the concept, wasn't he originally trying to sell it to Football before he got a shot with Baseball? I'm fairly certain I read it on an article posted here when he first got to Cleveland. But I could be wrong.
Peen really does make a really good point, grounded in common sense about the impact of analytics in your mid- to late rounds (I'd also add undrafted talent) versus the 1st and 2nd. My understanding of the role of analytics here was to quantify as many traits as possible to help create a predictor model. It's not perfect. It's not even meant to be because you'll always have the random human element. But what it (hopefully) can do is increase your odds of finding talent and getting a long term return on that investment from sources that normally don't get as much attention i.e. mid to late and undrafted.
It's also a concept DePo has been using to structure the organization.
That's about it. Analytics wasn't brought here to replace a good football eye. It wasn't meant to have a robot signing the card on Draft Day.
"Hey, I'm a reasonable guy. But I've just experienced some very unreasonable things." -Jack Burton
-It looks like the Harvard Boys know what they are doing after all.
It isn't me thinking it. It was reported in the article by the dude who actually spent time w/Dorsey, Haslam, and the Browns.
Y'all can make up all the stuff you want, but there are quotes out there by people who matter.
Dorsey must have had one helluva analytical staff at K.C. too with finding those mid round gems there as well. The man has truly been blessed that way I guess.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
It isn't me thinking it. It was reported in the article by the dude who actually spent time w/Dorsey, Haslam, and the Browns.
Y'all can make up all the stuff you want, but there are quotes out there by people who matter.
Dorsey must have had one helluva analytical staff at K.C. too with finding those mid round gems there as well. The man has truly been blessed that way I guess.
Sounds a lot like, in order to try to be and stay successful, you use whatever means available.
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe." Damanshot
As luck would have it, Dorsey must have had a great analytics department in K.C. I mean he certainly chose some very good mid round picks there as well. He's such a lucky guy!
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
Sashi was so great that no other team has hired him.
And he was fired when?
hehehe...look at our History... nothing new especially for a Economics guy more so General Manager.
1. Clark, Don't think he ever got another NFL job may he R.I.P.
2. Garcia or Butch for that matter, never got an NFL job.
3. Savage, outside of the Senior Bowl never got an NFL job.
4. Kokinos, oddly the shortest tenured GM/top personnel guy I think is the only one back in the NFL in a simple personnel capacity with the Ravens???
5. Heckert, I thought the most capable, I don't believe is back in any NFL capacity, I could be wrong if so in a minor role.
6. Lombardi, Outside of BB's little rat I don' think he has any NFL job.
7. Farmer, I don't think he is back in any capacity.
8. Which brings us to Sashi. Probably has offers in corporate affairs and working somewhere. He really put us in great shape more than any other mentioned on this list. I still say THANK YOU SASHI
9. Dorsey, honestly I think in 1 year has done for this Organization what all of the above combined have done!
jmho
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off! Go Browns! CHRIST HAS RISEN! GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
I actually think there's a decent chance we'll see Sashi in the NFL again. Maybe not for another year or two because I think the League is waiting to see if the plan he started can be brought to fruition AND if it's worth the cost.
Can a franchise tear it down to the studs and be remade in to a successful organization?
We may be seeing something similar with what Gruden's been doing with the Raiders, albeit maybe a bastardized version. If the Raiders are going to do it, now is the time because IMO one of the biggest challenges of that method is having a fan base loyal enough. Moving to Las Vegas they have to build that base up locally at least. They may feel like they can get the fan support maybe a new expansion team would get which gives them a couple years to get good.
Purely speculation on my part. I know. But considering the current state of the Browns I have to believe other struggling organizations are looking a little closer at how we've done it than maybe before.
"Hey, I'm a reasonable guy. But I've just experienced some very unreasonable things." -Jack Burton
-It looks like the Harvard Boys know what they are doing after all.
And the only people making the claim that Dorsey has gone 100% analytics or that he should are people like you and Vers who again, are purposefully misrepresenting other poster's positions.
Please don't use my name and then lie about what I am saying. I used a direct quote from the article by Seth Wickersham that gave us inside information on what has gone on w/the Browns.
Here is the quote and a link to the article:
Quote:
He knows he wasn't a fashionable choice, but he was Dorsey's choice, just as the Mayfield pick was Dorsey's pick. For once, Haslam didn't parade in friends to watch last year's draft. It was a scout's draft. The analytics team had limited influence.
There is also this:
Quote:
Today, Dorsey not only got his preferred coach but also his preferred structure. Kitchens will report to Dorsey, forcing collaboration and eliminating the appeals court to Haslam. Nobody knows if it will matter, given how Haslam operates. But for one day, at least, it feels good to be a Brown. As Dorsey privately told an associate: "I flexed my muscles and got what I wanted."
I think he's correct about that. Sashi should have never been in the personnel dept.He's claim to fame was in the legal side of things.I guess he did a good enough job in Jacksonville to get hired here. just because someone was stupid enough to put him in charge of football ops.shouldn't preclude him from getting back into the legal side of the NFL.
I think he's correct about that. Sashi should have never been in the personnel dept.He's claim to fame was in the legal side of things.I guess he did a good enough job in Jacksonville to get hired here. just because someone was stupid enough to put him in charge of football ops.shouldn't preclude him from getting back into the legal side of the NFL.
I may be mistaken, but I think he was referring to Sashi getting a job similar to his last one here in Cleveland. That is why he said "I think the League is waiting to see if the plan he started can be brought to fruition AND if it's worth the cost."
I don't think Sashi will get another NFL GM job, or another NFL job. For a few reasons. Mainly, he's a nummbers guy, he's never been a scout guy. I'm not sure why he would get into the scouting personnel side again. Thath said, I think he's going to make a highly sought after consultant for teams. Whether they discuss strategy, coaching or the draft, being an NFL consultant does pay very well.
I believe Sashi is one of the headliners of Sloan next month. It'll be interesting to what he has to say.
5. Heckert, I thought the most capable, I don't believe is back in any NFL capacity, I could be wrong if so in a minor role.
He worked for the Broncos until his death last year.
Heckert died??? He's young. Oh man sorry to hear that. I really like him and wished Mangini made him the GM and not Kokinos. Falcons Owner paid Ernie Arcosi to make a list of the best GM Prospects.
He gave him a list of three. Dimitroff Heckert Kokinos
Dimitroff was first interviewed and got the job on the spot.
A year later I think was Mangini's turn and he chose Kokinos but had interviewed Heckert and I think there was a power thing so he went with Kokinos...and why his era never got off the ground.
If only he and Heckert could of gotten along. ::sigh::
So so sorry to hear and now read about his passing. 51.. smh
Defense wins championships. Watson play your butt off! Go Browns! CHRIST HAS RISEN! GM Strong! & Stay safe everyone!
Sashi came in here and did the job he was hired to do, he gutted this team and amassed huge draft capital through trades, tanking, and trade downs. When his job was completed we brought in a guy who is a personnel guy. It was all part of the plan, including knowing we were going to be horrible for a couple season, and now we are sitting pretty. I love Dorsey, but he doesnt have the ammo to do what he has done without the job Sashi did .
You may be in the drivers seat but God is holding the map. #GMSTRONG
It sounds like Sashi wasn't just hired to do the job. Instead, the plan was his.
It was doomed to fail because no organization can w/stand that much losing. The multiple firings are evidence of that.
But actually it hasnt failed , we are right where the plan was meant to put us. We are loaded with young talent , cap space, and draft capital.
Some may argue that the object of his tenure changed when it appeared he was in over his head. And our "good luck" was a result of how badly he failed. Personally I don't think you can "flip the script" in one year without the whole thing being part of the plan from the beginning. In that case, you can only call him a fall guy or a genius, not much room in between. He handed Dorsey five picks in the first two rounds of the 2018 draft... and $100M cap.
Quote:
"Any personnel man worth his weight would be excited," said Dorsey. "Sashi did a great job creating some draft picks and some salary cap space. ... To me, this is an opportunity that not many personnel guys in my position would pass up."
John Dorsey ~ Dec 8, 2017
The next logical step would seem to be giving credit to ownership. For whatever reason, fans aren't ready to do that yet.
It sounds like Sashi wasn't just hired to do the job. Instead, the plan was his.
It was doomed to fail because no organization can w/stand that much losing. The multiple firings are evidence of that.
But actually it hasnt failed , we are right where the plan was meant to put us. We are loaded with young talent , cap space, and draft capital.
Some may argue that the object of his tenure changed when it appeared he was in over his head. And our "good luck" was a result of how badly he failed. Personally I don't think you can "flip the script" in one year without the whole thing being part of the plan from the beginning. In that case, you can only call him a fall guy or a genius, not much room in between. He handed Dorsey five picks in the first two rounds of the 2018 draft... and $100M cap.
Quote:
"Any personnel man worth his weight would be excited," said Dorsey. "Sashi did a great job creating some draft picks and some salary cap space. ... To me, this is an opportunity that not many personnel guys in my position would pass up."
John Dorsey ~ Dec 8, 2017
The next logical step would seem to be giving credit to ownership. For whatever reason, fans aren't ready to do that yet.
I agree with that sentiment, and while we talk about the big names like Mayfield etc. He built a foundation to build on and I am so excited because we have potential to be REALLY good, for a REALLY long time
You may be in the drivers seat but God is holding the map. #GMSTRONG
Ya ... when the thief hired Sashi he knew the chefs were gonna fire Dorsey and Bake would be there at #1 and King John would pick him ... ..
Sashi got fired because he couldn’t find a QB and made the thief fire him either by disobeying a direct order or because the thief chose Hue over Sashi .... after the by week debacle at the factory of sadness the thief had his hand forced ... one or both of them had to go ...
U guys just make crap up that makes no sense ....
NONE ... let me guess .. lee Harvey was the lone shooter and ET is home ...
Fate
I started a thank u Sashi thread the week after he was fired casue he left us in great shape ... i’ll Give the thief credit for being EXTREMELY LUCKY ...
U wanna give him a pass for being the worst owner in the history of sports ... be my guest ... i’ll Be thankful he got lucky ...
I mean seriously ... u guys are suggesting the plan was to go 0 - 16 EVER ... ya .. ok .. ...
OH .. and the fact they knew Watson would get hurt that early in the season was a stroke of PURE GENIUS ... that crystal ball logic netted us Ward and Chubb ...
We were BLESSED ... and lord only knows we were due ...
IT WORKED OUT GREAT .... but to tell me that was the plan is 100% ILLOGICAL and IGNORANT ...
I think you misconstrued what was said to be the actual plan and made a lot of assumptions.
This is why the board is continually getting more difficult to read. I mean who are the ones making stuff up here? Where in the world did anyone say we knew Dorsey would be a free agent in a few years when we hired Sashi? Blasphemy.
No one suggested the plan was to go 0-16. Why do you think we wanted Hue fired?
I mean we could play the game you guys want to play. There's a handful of you who do the exact thing you are claiming others are doing. In fact YOU are the ones making stuff up. We could all play that game if you want, but this place wouldn't be that much fun.