DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum What Me Worry?

You are arguing generalizations.

I am looking at specifics.

I'm not arguing the overall numbers.

I'm looking at sub-sets. I'm looking at the film of Baker actually playing. I'm trying to mesh that with contextualized data.

You've disproven nothing. You argued against a position that wasn't taken. By posting a link to an article that came to the conclusion that teams should throw deep more, I might add.

You are looking at two variables (short vs. long.) I'm trying to look at "all" of them, on a play-by-play basis, taking defense into account. A deep throw can be less risky than a short throw in certain circumstances. I'm not saying, "is always less risky."

You get frustrated when people don't agree with you. I get frustrated when people don't take the time to think about what I'm actually saying (sometimes trying to say and not all that coherently). People, not just you, want everything black and white. I'm trying to sift through shades of gray.

A DB with his back to the ball is less likely to make an interception than one who is facing it. Would you agree?

The deep vs. short passes overall numbers don't take that into account. They include all deep and short passes regardless of what the DB is doing.

If a DB is sitting back deep waiting on a ball that is in the air a long time, I imagine it is much more likely to be intercepted...as you said. If he's hauling ass trying to chase down a 4.4 speed receiver who got past him when he was in man coverage, he's probably less likely to get a pick. Throwing to the receiver in the 2nd situation rather than a receiver running a shorter route with a defender over top, waiting, trying to bait him into throwing, while he's looking right at it, would appear to be less risky.

Not all deep/short throws are created equally.

On a play by play basis long passes equal almost six times the likelihood of being intercepted as short passes do. The jury is in.

Maybe your research could slightly alter this but the actual outcome won't overcome that. Let me know how that works out for you.

I don't get frustrated when people don't agree with me. I get frustarated when people fly in the face of common logic. Many things about the game of football are subjective and differing opinions can apply. That doesn't bother me at all. But when people flatly deny something that's so obvious anyone can see it and people who actually study the game know it? Yeah, that can be frustrating.

Listen up you old coot. You like to argue. I have known you for near 20 years now. Badgering each other on the boards, and breaking bread at more than a couple of tailgates.

One proof I offer is you never end without the last word.

It doesn't matter how wrong you are, you maintain you are right.

I don't follow your logic.

You're basically saying a QB should throw it short every time because "on every play long passes are more likely to be intercepted."

I'm saying it depends on what is going on during the actual individual play.

Which makes more sense?

Why do we worry about a QB being able to read defenses and see the field?

Following your logic (or at least what you wrote), a pass to a receiver 30 yards downfield whose defender fell down and he has no one within 20 yards is more risky than throwing a pass to a triple covered back in the flat, with two of the defenders being between the QB and RB.

Feel free to say, "Oh, okay. I see what you're saying." Or, keep digging in. Whatever.

That sounds logical....

IMO, very much of the probability statistics do not take game situation into account.

For instance, how many long passes are thrown in absolute desperation by QB's who just aren't very good, which is why they are often in desperation mode? How many short passes are designed to be as safe as possible for similar QB's? How often do good, accurate QB's need to take risks, compared to the not-so-good ones? How many long passes "float" for far too long?

Take the going for it on 4th down, or two-point attempt numbers, sure, if Baker is the QB, I think the odds are in favor. However, if our QB is Kizer, then I take the safe option.

Game situation is more of a factor at the moment of choice than the stats in general. There is no "average" game, player, or play.

Swing and a miss!

Long passes carry more danger which is exactly why they're attempted less often. There are certainly situations in which the long pass makes a lot of sense. Being behind late in a game. You throw some mixed in to keep the opposing defense honest and loosen up there coverage. Sometimes you'll find an obvious mismatch in coverage.

The problem here is that in this debate you have decided to move the goal post. At first you tried to make the point that long passes didn't carry more risk. Now since that has obviously been debunked you've moved on to "Then why throw them at all".

That's not going to work.

You're wrong!

I can't believe this is even being debated.

You're understanding of my argument may have changed, but I used "can be" from the first post on the topic. You are the one insisting on arguing absolutes. My argument was that they don't always carry more risk. As far as moving goal posts, you're the one trying to move my argument into something that it never was.

You keep saying they are always more risky. The obvious response, in my mind, was "then why ever throw them?"

Everything else being equal, deep throws are more risky than short throws- you'd be right if that is all you were saying. However, everything else is never equal outside of a spreadsheet. The risk of a throw depends upon innumerable variables, not just distance.

People can read it all for themselves. I'll let it go at that.

We had high draft picks and cap space for years and years and years. And our team was largely incompetant at tranforming that into wins. We couldnt do it.

I credit John Dorsey with 100% of our pending success. He is an exceptional judge of talent. And we would be nowhere without him.

I get that in general, historically, good GMs have never wanted to come here. Because "Cleveland". That has a lot to do with our historic failures.

So, if these other teams want to turn themselves into the equivalent of an expansion team....Well... they better have a damn good GM/scout team lined up to get out of that hole.

That's all I have to say about that.

Yeah, you would think people could see how much cap space and draft capital we've had since what seems like forever and where all of that got us enough up until now to understand what you said. But they have to try and dismiss reality.

I had go back and read what the start of all this was, why sudden hate for the long pass?

Grimm Brown was saying likelihood of a pick 6, and surely everyone understands that a short out intercepted leaves the intercepter with nobody between himself and the end zone,

while a deep pass intercepted , (or even a pass intercepted in the back of the end zone from a play originating in the red zone), leaves X PERCENTAGE of the offensive players still in position to make a tackle on the intercepter and " more real estate" he must traverse before it becomes a pick 6.

Thus making it less safe, pick 6 wise, or do I mean more safe.
: The deep pass, less likely a pick 6.

Actually, this started because some of us disagree w/how well Baker is reading coverages post-snap and then someone made a crazy comment about the 8 yard pass. Suffice to say that any comments that aren't glowingly positive in regards to Baker Mayfield will be challenged and even ridiculed.

I dont mind if you guys criticize Baker's post snap reads or whatever aspect of his game.

For the simple reason he studded out, and if there are reasons he can get even better....well I'm all about it because he will become the GOAT. And it wont even be close based on the trajectory he is on.

For me, it's Battered Browns Fan Syndrome. In the back of my mind, I can't shake the feeling it will all come tumbling down. The only reason for that is because of our past failures.

But that's really quite ridiculous when I really think about it. A QB doesn't set rookie records just by accident. Our RB doesn't put up nearly 1,000 yards in a partial season by accident. Our offensive coordinator doesn't design plays that work by accident. Our GM doesn't just suddenly lose his ability to judge talent.

But is this like 2007/2008? When we nearly missed the playoffs but then 2008 happened and it all came crashing down? I don't think so. Just totally different situations. I don't think anyone is going to say Mayfield and Derek Anderson are the same kind of players.

*Side story* I remember watching the preseason games in 2008. I think it was the first preseason game, we were all pumped up because of our success in 2007. This was going to be our year, finally.

First preseason game, the Browns O marches down the field and Anderson hooks up with Braylon Edwards for a beautiful acrobatic touchdown catch. I remember thinking to myself "oh man, maybe this IS our year!"

And, out of nowhere, a huge thunderstorm happens. Lightning, game delayed. Just a sudden short tempest. Crennel decides the field isn't safe for the starters anymore, so it's backups from then on in that game.

I think it was just a couple days later that Edwards is racing barefoot and gets his foot stepped on. He misses most (if not all) of the rest of the regular season. And everything just went downhill from there.

*end irrelevant side story*

Anyway, I need to get over my "we've sucked in the past, so something will happen to us because we're cursed" mindset. That's a loser mindset. There are reasons to be excited for this season, and it isn't just "we slapped a new coat of paint on a dilapidated outhouse" like we did in 2008. We actually seem to have a foundation to build on.

Could things happen? Could injuries derail us? Sure. But that's the NFL. It happens to every team.

JMHO

Well, the fact is that regardless of the look it has to all come together on the field. Im not overly concerned but seemingly ideal teams have failed alot.

https://twitter.com/obj

Odell Beckham Jr
Verified account
@obj
12h12 hours ago

I ain’t gone lie..I woke up feeling dangerous!! 😭😭😭

1,431 replies 24,415 retweets 134,514 likes
Reply 1.4K Retweet 24K Like 135K