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Warren Sharp has a pretty good strength of schedule model. In the off-season he bases it off the Vegas odds. It is much more accurate than basing strength of schedule off of last year’s records.

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Plus, let's remember that Tennessee's defense (front 7 ) was one of the best in the NFL last year. And their run game has a dynamic duo


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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I don't have issues with Lesmerises yet. May not agree with everything he says, but i do think some of the things he says is interpreted wrong.

On that note, there isn't a bigger bozo on the planet than Tony Grossi. We deserve better than that clown.

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Originally Posted By: Punchsmack
The Browns are the Vegas favorites to win the NFC North.


The AFC North, sure I like our chances. But the NFC North, that could be ambitious.

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
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Doug Lesmerises ......... I’ve been on 12-4 for over four months.


This guy is a bozo. His articles always suck. Predicting 12 and 4 before both free agency and the draft is illogical. It's crap like this that brings unnecessary heat to the coaches.


Color me illogical, then, because I made the exact same prediction when I first saw the final list of who we'd be playing back in December.

Based on who we were and who they were at the end of that season, I saw, and still see, a very realistic 12 wins.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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9 and 7 low end 14-2 high end. We come out of those first 8 with 5-3 or 6-2 and oo its on.

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First goal. Win the Division.

Then try and get a bye the first week.

After that just win baby.

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First goal, win a game.

I think it's going to be a growing-opportunity season. I'm excited and hopeful but if I'm betting money (an I probably will be) I see 8-8. A lot of people will see that as a big disappointment but I'm not so negative about it. A lot of people think we're tee'd up for this year but I think it's more likely next year (I know, the old nails on the chalk board words). But this is the 1st year for a coach that has never led at any level and a lot of new moving parts and still some pretty important holes. I'm not expecting another miracle draft. It also worries me that there's going to be a lot of noise, lots of prime time lights and talk. I don't see that as a good thing in year 1 of lift-off. Anyway, I think we'll get better as the season progresses and part of the reason the odds below get a little stronger as the season progresses. Something like...

Week 1, Tennessee: Win Odds:40% L - 0-1

Week 2, at New York Jets: Win Odds:55% - W - 1-1

Week 3, L.A. Rams: Win Odds:30% - L - 1-2

Week 4, at Baltimore: Win Odds:40% - L - 1-3

Week 5, at San Francisco: Win Odds:55% - W - 2-3

Week 6, Seattle: Win Odds:45% - L - 2-4

Week 7, bye:

Week 8, at New England: Win Odds:30% - L - 2-5

Week 9, at Denver: Win Odds:45% - L - 2-6

Week 10, Buffalo: Win Odds:55% - W - 3-6

Week 11, Pittsburgh: Win Odds:50% - L - 3-7

Week 12, Miami: The Dolphins Win Odds:65% - W - 4-7

Week 13, at Pittsburgh: Win Odds:45% - W - 5-7 (Yea, I know)

Week 14, Cincinnati: Win Odds:60% - W - 6-7

Week 15, at Arizona: Win. Win Odds:60% - W - 7-7

Week 16, Baltimore: Win Odds:55% - L - 8-7 (when did we last sweep Balt?)

Week 17, at Cincinnati: Win Odds:55% - W - 8-8

But I think variance is high, like +/- 3 games. So it could be anywhere from 11-5 to 5-11 depending on injuries and what ever else happens. But I think the middle of the bell curve distribution is right around 8-8. Too much has to go right and not go wrong for us to be higher than 10-6 IMO.




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Originally Posted By: 10YrOvernightSuccess
First goal, win a game.

I think it's going to be a growing-opportunity season. I'm excited and hopeful but if I'm betting money (an I probably will be) I see 8-8. A lot of people will see that as a big disappointment but I'm not so negative about it. A lot of people think we're tee'd up for this year but I think it's more likely next year (I know, the old nails on the chalk board words). But this is the 1st year for a coach that has never led at any level and a lot of new moving parts and still some pretty important holes. I'm not expecting another miracle draft. It also worries me that there's going to be a lot of noise, lots of prime time lights and talk. I don't see that as a good thing in year 1 of lift-off. Anyway, I think we'll get better as the season progresses and part of the reason the odds below get a little stronger as the season progresses. Something like...

Week 1, Tennessee: Win Odds:40% L - 0-1

Week 2, at New York Jets: Win Odds:55% - W - 1-1

Week 3, L.A. Rams: Win Odds:30% - L - 1-2

Week 4, at Baltimore: Win Odds:40% - L - 1-3

Week 5, at San Francisco: Win Odds:55% - W - 2-3

Week 6, Seattle: Win Odds:45% - L - 2-4

Week 7, bye:

Week 8, at New England: Win Odds:30% - L - 2-5

Week 9, at Denver: Win Odds:45% - L - 2-6

Week 10, Buffalo: Win Odds:55% - W - 3-6

Week 11, Pittsburgh: Win Odds:50% - L - 3-7

Week 12, Miami: The Dolphins Win Odds:65% - W - 4-7

Week 13, at Pittsburgh: Win Odds:45% - W - 5-7 (Yea, I know)

Week 14, Cincinnati: Win Odds:60% - W - 6-7

Week 15, at Arizona: Win. Win Odds:60% - W - 7-7

Week 16, Baltimore: Win Odds:55% - L - 8-7 (when did we last sweep Balt?)

Week 17, at Cincinnati: Win Odds:55% - W - 8-8

But I think variance is high, like +/- 3 games. So it could be anywhere from 11-5 to 5-11 depending on injuries and what ever else happens. But I think the middle of the bell curve distribution is right around 8-8. Too much has to go right and not go wrong for us to be higher than 10-6 IMO.


You only see us as 1/2 game better than this previous season ...... when we had Hue and Arians fighting and bashing skulls for almost 1/2 the season ...... while adding experienced and competent coordinators, what should be vastly improved special teams, adding great talent on the DL, and OBJ? (not to mention greater experience playing together for the offense, and growth by Mayfield)


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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
Originally Posted By: 10YrOvernightSuccess
First goal, win a game.

I think it's going to be a growing-opportunity season. I'm excited and hopeful but if I'm betting money (an I probably will be) I see 8-8. A lot of people will see that as a big disappointment but I'm not so negative about it. A lot of people think we're tee'd up for this year but I think it's more likely next year (I know, the old nails on the chalk board words). But this is the 1st year for a coach that has never led at any level and a lot of new moving parts and still some pretty important holes. I'm not expecting another miracle draft. It also worries me that there's going to be a lot of noise, lots of prime time lights and talk. I don't see that as a good thing in year 1 of lift-off. Anyway, I think we'll get better as the season progresses and part of the reason the odds below get a little stronger as the season progresses. Something like...

Week 1, Tennessee: Win Odds:40% L - 0-1

Week 2, at New York Jets: Win Odds:55% - W - 1-1

Week 3, L.A. Rams: Win Odds:30% - L - 1-2

Week 4, at Baltimore: Win Odds:40% - L - 1-3

Week 5, at San Francisco: Win Odds:55% - W - 2-3

Week 6, Seattle: Win Odds:45% - L - 2-4

Week 7, bye:

Week 8, at New England: Win Odds:30% - L - 2-5

Week 9, at Denver: Win Odds:45% - L - 2-6

Week 10, Buffalo: Win Odds:55% - W - 3-6

Week 11, Pittsburgh: Win Odds:50% - L - 3-7

Week 12, Miami: The Dolphins Win Odds:65% - W - 4-7

Week 13, at Pittsburgh: Win Odds:45% - W - 5-7 (Yea, I know)

Week 14, Cincinnati: Win Odds:60% - W - 6-7

Week 15, at Arizona: Win. Win Odds:60% - W - 7-7

Week 16, Baltimore: Win Odds:55% - L - 8-7 (when did we last sweep Balt?)

Week 17, at Cincinnati: Win Odds:55% - W - 8-8

But I think variance is high, like +/- 3 games. So it could be anywhere from 11-5 to 5-11 depending on injuries and what ever else happens. But I think the middle of the bell curve distribution is right around 8-8. Too much has to go right and not go wrong for us to be higher than 10-6 IMO.


You only see us as 1/2 game better than this previous season ...... when we had Hue and Arians fighting and bashing skulls for almost 1/2 the season ...... while adding experienced and competent coordinators, what should be vastly improved special teams, adding great talent on the DL, and OBJ? (not to mention greater experience playing together for the offense, and growth by Mayfield)


Yea..that guy is full of it...12-4 baby.

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Quote:
Also teams that get stuck on the road for weeks including a game in London. San Diego got that treatment last year.

From a pure structure standpoint, the Ravens must have paid big money for their schedule..

1. They have no back to back road games. Their schedule is literally, A-H-A-H-A-H all year.
2. The game after their bye week is the Patriots at home, probably their toughest game, at home, after the bye.
3. To end the season, before their last couple division games against us and the Steelers, they have the Bills and the Jets.
4. That last Jets game is on Thursday, giving them a couple extra days rest and preparation for their final 2 division games against us and the Steelers, which could ultimately decide the division.
5. Their west coast trip to play the Seahawks is right before the bye week.

The only negative in their schedule is that they have to go to the west coast to play the Rams on Monday night, then on a short week, return to Baltimore and play the following Sunday.




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I think last year we enjoyed a little Holcomb or Anderson effect after Hue's departure. The team played relieved and loose and other teams didn't take them seriously or didn't know how to handle them yet. (I do think Baker is much better than either of those 2 QB's BTW). This year we have some things working against us, IMO. The surprise element won't be there. I have no idea if Kitchens is the guy. I admit to having some doubtful intuition but it's pointless to debate until we see some results. Every new set of coordinators brings renewed expectations so until I see something, I don't really know and neither does anyone else. But they're brand new to. Again, that's not in our favor. Lots of newness and youth, lots of still-wet glue. I just think there's more elements with a higher likelihood to go wrong than right. That's not pessimism IMO, just trying to see it as an objective outsider would, as a bettor. I do think 9-7 is also highly likely. But so is 7-9. But hey, I'm just another schmuck on the internet with an opinion.

The big wild card is Baker. I love his personality and his unflappable-ness, if that's a word. We're always looking for a messiah in Cleveland and this one looks about as good as any yet. Will he have the ability to pull himself and everyone else back in line behind him when they lose some bad games or Kitchens makes some rookie coaching mistake or a rash of injuries strike? I feel like it's inevitable that we're going to find out one way or another.




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Quote:
But they're brand new to. Again, that's not in our favor. Lots of newness and youth, lots of still-wet glue. I just think there's more elements with a higher likelihood to go wrong than right.

Never before, in the history of history, has it been more imperative for a team to start fast.. we need to go 2-0 to start.

Teams change every year so you are never 100% sure what the schedule is going to end up looking like (ie, I'm sure all of the teams who had us at the back end of their schedule last year had it penciled in as a W).. but based on what we know so far, our schedule is much more difficult in the first half than the second half. If we can be 4-4 or better at the midway point, we should win 11 or 12 games.. book it.


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I plan on going to 7 games....only skipping the Buffalo game due to the short turn around from Sunday to Thursday night.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

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Originally Posted By: DCDAWGFAN
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But they're brand new to. Again, that's not in our favor. Lots of newness and youth, lots of still-wet glue. I just think there's more elements with a higher likelihood to go wrong than right.

Never before, in the history of history, has it been more imperative for a team to start fast.. we need to go 2-0 to start.

Teams change every year so you are never 100% sure what the schedule is going to end up looking like (ie, I'm sure all of the teams who had us at the back end of their schedule last year had it penciled in as a W).. but based on what we know so far, our schedule is much more difficult in the first half than the second half. If we can be 4-4 or better at the midway point, we should win 11 or 12 games.. book it.



I hear you, but it has always been important to start fast.


No doubt, we have to win games. A slow start wouldn't be good.


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Quote:
The only negative in their schedule is that they have to play us twice.


Fixed it for you. grin


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Before the draft and a final roster where are these percentages from?


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I am not stressed about Freddie.


I think I was the only person to mention Freddie and the coaching staff before you posted this, thus I must ask if you misinterpreted my post?

I didn't say I was stressed about Freddie. I said that he is an unknown as a HC. He could suck, be average, or be great. I don't think that is "stressing." I think it is being objective and much more fair than acting like we know how he will handle being a HC one way or the other.

I better clarify this because I think things get misconstrued on here...............I am NOT saying he will be bad or that he isn't ready to be a HC. I'm saying that we don't know how good he will be. Period.

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I don't think I even read what you wrote.

I was just giving my opinion on how I felt about the schedule.

No problamo

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Originally Posted By: Ballpeen
I plan on going to 7 games....only skipping the Buffalo game due to the short turn around from Sunday to Thursday night.


You know where to find me. Also, I plan on visiting AZ this December.


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Just a couple of issues I have with the schedule.
I don't like us playing four out of five on the road mid-season.

I also wish we didn't have so many prime time games.


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Originally Posted By: Ballpeen
I plan on going to 7 games....only skipping the Buffalo game due to the short turn around from Sunday to Thursday night.


Dawg, you should just stay in town and catch them both!


"too many notes, not enough music-"

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Originally Posted By: lampdogg
Just a couple of issues I have with the schedule.
I don't like us playing four out of five on the road mid-season.

I also wish we didn't have so many prime time games.


I wanted to add that the reason I don't like all the prime time games is that I think it can be disruptive to a routine. Other teams deal with it of course, but for a young, still- gelling team, it could be a problem.


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Originally Posted By: bonefish

Before the draft and a final roster where are these percentages from?



Done plucked from my bung hole. Seriously, what I know of the team states currently, statistical analysis generally and spitball guesses specifically. For most teams the draft won’t change fortunes too much in any one season. Certainly for last year’s Browns draft that wasn’t true but the 19 prior drafts go to my point. Some things’ll change between now and September but our green-ness won’t change much. Or the fact that regardless of what Freddie says, there’s gonna be a ton of pressure to produce wins fast. Not a great combo historically.

But the beauty of slinging crap on the internet is I get to change predictions at whim as the season draws nearer. I doubt it changes much though. That’s my prediction right now, seeing the schedule as it lies. And honestly, that’s not so bad. I think that sets up very nicely for a string of winning seasons for several years after if it doesn’t get crushed to dust under ridiculous expectations. It’s fun to think about 12-4 but seriously that seems kinda crazy. Of course, I’d rather be wrong.




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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan


You only see us as 1/2 game better than this previous season ...... when we had Hue and Arians fighting and bashing skulls for almost 1/2 the season ......


Why was Hue fighting with Arians ? Arians had retired from the Cardinals and was in the broadcast booth.


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Because I'm really bad at names sometimes. banghead crazy

Todd Haley. Geesh.


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Originally Posted By: Clemdawg
Originally Posted By: Ballpeen
I plan on going to 7 games....only skipping the Buffalo game due to the short turn around from Sunday to Thursday night.


Dawg, you should just stay in town and catch them both!



I gave it some thought, but in the end I do have a budget I work with in going to these games.


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Originally Posted By: lampdogg
Originally Posted By: lampdogg
Just a couple of issues I have with the schedule.
I don't like us playing four out of five on the road mid-season.

I also wish we didn't have so many prime time games.


I wanted to add that the reason I don't like all the prime time games is that I think it can be disruptive to a routine. Other teams deal with it of course, but for a young, still- gelling team, it could be a problem.


I think these prime times games can be disruptive to a team as well. Especially a team that is used to losing LOL smile


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I don't mind Sunday night games all that much. The others suck.

Speaking of Sunday night, I could see either of the Dec. Cincy or Ravens games being flexed to the night game.


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screaming disappointed fans yes, I can see that hopefully we won't give them the opportunity to be disappointed.

But here is the reality of this all. We are either a kick butt team and not only on paper but we are the team that instills fear. There should be nobody on our schedule that we fear and prove it by winning almost all or dare I say ALL OF THEM!

There is no 8-8 as a good season. We cannot be PAPER CHAMPIONS.
My point is this is it dawgs...Losing ERA is over with and now we are ready to get the NFL. WIN! has to be our results.

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Originally Posted By: Ballpeen
I don't mind Sunday night games all that much. The others suck.

Speaking of Sunday night, I could see either of the Dec. Cincy or Ravens games being flexed to the night game.


If we are as good as many people think, I agree 100%

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I think that as of right now beating the Titans should be all anybody should worry about. Winning the home opener would be another check on the list.

People need to remember, these other teams have improved too. Roster or not, the Browns still need small victories first. Winning the opener would be a good one to start with.

When was the last time they won the opener?


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Well if they beat the Titans it'll be two years in a row we didn't lose the home opener! That's a fun streak!





(and I think it was '04 or '05 they last won when Jeff Garcia beat the Ravens)

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Originally Posted By: devicedawg
Well if they beat the Titans it'll be two years in a row we didn't lose the home opener! That's a fun streak!





(and I think it was '04 or '05 they last won when Jeff Garcia beat the Ravens)


That has never happened; or at least it hasn't happened in the last 25 or so years.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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It was in '04.


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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
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I am not stressed about Freddie.


I think I was the only person to mention Freddie and the coaching staff before you posted this, thus I must ask if you misinterpreted my post?

I didn't say I was stressed about Freddie. I said that he is an unknown as a HC. He could suck, be average, or be great. I don't think that is "stressing." I think it is being objective and much more fair than acting like we know how he will handle being a HC one way or the other.

I better clarify this because I think things get misconstrued on here...............I am NOT saying he will be bad or that he isn't ready to be a HC. I'm saying that we don't know how good he will be. Period.


I feel the same way. To me he is an unknown quantity. I am optimistic but also so used to disappointment the past couple decades I am in the "I will believe it when I see it". That actually goes for the whole team too, not just the staff.

WE should be allowed to be cautious, right??

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I've said this before, but I would feel more comfortable right now if we had kept Williams as HC. That's not a popular opinion, shucks, but I felt we were developing chemistry.... and chemistry is vital. Did we really have to fast -track Freddie?


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Originally Posted By: lampdogg
Originally Posted By: lampdogg
Just a couple of issues I have with the schedule.
I don't like us playing four out of five on the road mid-season.

I also wish we didn't have so many prime time games.


I wanted to add that the reason I don't like all the prime time games is that I think it can be disruptive to a routine. Other teams deal with it of course, but for a young, still- gelling team, it could be a problem.


I think baker and Beckham and the red team of the offense will really want to shine in prime time


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Originally Posted By: lampdogg
I've said this before, but I would feel more comfortable right now if we had kept Williams as HC. That's not a popular opinion, shucks, but I felt we were developing chemistry.... and chemistry is vital. Did we really have to fast -track Freddie?


I don't get why you think he was fast tracked.

Freddie wasn't some 1st time coach. He has been an NFL coach since 2006. He has been an associate head coach. He has worked for Nice Sabans, Bill Parcells, Ken Whisenhunt, and Bruce Arians. What would he learn about being a head coach by being a coordinator for another year, and if he did well again, what was going to happen? Of course he would have been gone.

Has Williams been successful as a head coach? In his 4 different seasons as a head coach, he is 22-34. He did OK in Cleveland, largely because the offense started clicking under Kitchens.

Williams' defense left a lot to be desired. I am not sweating moving on from him.


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Originally Posted By: YTownBrownsFan
Originally Posted By: lampdogg
I've said this before, but I would feel more comfortable right now if we had kept Williams as HC. That's not a popular opinion, shucks, but I felt we were developing chemistry.... and chemistry is vital. Did we really have to fast -track Freddie?


I don't get why you think he was fast tracked.

Freddie wasn't some 1st time coach. He has been an NFL coach since 2006. He has been an associate head coach. He has worked for Nice Sabans, Bill Parcells, Ken Whisenhunt, and Bruce Arians. What would he learn about being a head coach by being a coordinator for another year, and if he did well again, what was going to happen? Of course he would have been gone.

Has Williams been successful as a head coach? In his 4 different seasons as a head coach, he is 22-34. He did OK in Cleveland, largely because the offense started clicking under Kitchens.

Williams' defense left a lot to be desired. I am not sweating moving on from him.

+1

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