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Hmm ......

Browns’ 2019 roster ranked 18th in the NFL by analytics site - cleveland.com
https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2019/06...ytics-site.html

CLEVELAND, Ohio — At least one analytics website differs with John Harbaugh’s assessment that the Browns have the most talent in the AFC North this year.

Pro Football Focus, in a story for ESPN+ subscribers, has ranked the Browns’ 2019 roster 18th heading into training camp based on anticipated starters. The site uses its own detailed player grades from the 2018 film, either in college or the pros.

It doesn’t, however, project how a player might fare this season, such as how Odell Beckham Jr. might play now that he’s with Baker Mayfield and vice versa.

The bottom-half ranking comes on the heels of Emory University ranking the Browns’ fan base 27th this week, making it a bang-up week for Cleveland rankings.

At No. 18, the Browns (7-8-1 last year) are a notch below the Ravens, who won the AFC North, and 10 spots below the Steelers at No. 8. They’s seven places ahead of the No. 25 Bengals, who went 6-10 last year.

The top five are as follows: Patriots, Rams, Saints, Eagles and Bears.

According to pff.com’s player grades, only one Browns player cracked their elite grade of 90 or higher: Beckham, who just made the cut at 90.

The Browns have five players in the next-best category “Good/high quality,’’ with grades of 80-89.9: Nick Chubb (87.5), Myles Garrett (87), Olivier Vernon (86.3), Mayfield (84.5) and Greedy Williams (80.5 for his LSU season).

They have 10 projected starters in the “Below Average’’ category (0-69.9) with Christian Kirksey ranked lowest on the team at 46.0. Others are Genard Avery (54.8 but based on a college season), Austin Corbett (54.9), Greg Robinson (59.6), Antonio Callaway (63.6), Larry Ogunjobi (64), Chris Hubbard (65.1), David Njoku (66.7), Morgan Burnett (66.7), and T.J. Carrie (66.9).

The site counts Mayfield as the Browns’ biggest strength.

“We have watched many memorable rookie seasons over the past 13 years, but few were good as Baker Mayfield’s. He managed a big-time throw rate of 7.3% that ranked third and finished with an overall grade of 84.5, the second-best mark ever recorded by a rookie quarterback. The Browns finally have their franchise quarterback, and as long as he's at the helm, the future is bright for Cleveland.’’

It also ranks the Browns’ inability to tackle last season as their glaring weakness.

“The team ended the 2018 campaign ranked dead last with a team tackling grade at 34.7, and they collectively missed a whopping 194 tackles over the course of the regular season -- 23 more than the next-closest team. Now that they have all the pieces in place on defense, improving on this fundamental aspect is a must.’’

As for the team’s X factor, that Beckham.

“One of the best pass-catchers in the game, Beckham has averaged 2.4 yards per route run during his five seasons in the league, the fifth-best mark among receivers with at least 500 routes run. With OBJ coupled with Mayfield, the Browns might very well possess to the best QB-WR tandem in the league.’’

In the final analysis, who will be right? PFF or John Harbaugh?

I think the truth lies somewhere between Harbaugh’s ranking and this. A bit of a reality check a Game hasnt been played yet.

We have as much or more talent than anyone in the league ...

I wonder if these guys hired Sashi as they say its analytics based .... shows just how accurate analytics is when it comes to evaluating talent ... ...

Let's also not forget that they used last years stats and for half the year they were coached by Hue.

This is the first thing I thought as I was reading it.
Based upon last year's stats alone, 18th makes sense.

Not very predictive of future production, I must say.

It's a hard league to get respect in.

Agreed. It's "nice" to be ranked 18th instead of 31st or 32nd like before but it really doesn't mean too much especially at this time of the year. Let's play the games and see what happens then.

Never been a fan of PFF ... I look at their scores for some of our players each and every week and wonder if the watched the same game as i did ... *L* ,,,

I trust posters like U and Vers and tabber way more than i do any of the writers or pundits except for a few that have proven to me over time to be real good .. Jake Burns is building major cred with me ...

Regardless any ranking that has us below 5 as far s talent goes is pure BS ...

IMO no team has as much talent as we do ... i’ll compare rosters with every team in this league and feel extremely confident we’ll have as much or more talent than every other team ...

There’s no way in heck if were not #1 we fall below 3 ... so IF u have us out of the top 5 u have ZERO CRED as u clearly have no clue or are just stat geeks ...

The criteria they used is EMBARRASSING for them ... they should be ashamed of themselves as thats just bad reporting .. i wonder if there wasn’t some kind of disclaimer in this article ... i would imagine there is cause there conclusion makes no sense ...

Well, that is what it is all about. Using known data.

I also think we will project much better after this season is played, plus, this was ranking the rosters, and I don't disagree. I don't think it was trying to project how teams will play or finish this season.

Some people get all bunched up and mock Sashi, mostly because they don't understand or have open minds.

As usual, Mary Kay is taking what the numbers say based on last year and is trying to compare those to what Harbaugh said. It isn't even comparable. Apples and oranges. The woman is dense.

PFF did the analysis. Mary Kay just reported on it.

...

Yes ... its me that doesn’t understand and i have an extremely closed mind ... we disagree so it must be me ... u sound like the inclusive party here ...

Gimme a break .. there is ZERO SOLID EVIDENCE that analytics helps at all in talent evaluation and acquisitions ... ZERO ....

I actually think its u that doesn’t understand ... this isn’t baseball and the differences in key areas are stark to say the least ... analytics just doesn’t lend itself to playing more than a small bit roll when it comes to talent evaluation ..

- there is a lot less variables that go into each number u plug into the analytics equation in baseball ...
- if u know anything at all about statistics you’d know sample size is huge ... there’s major discrepancies in the sample sizes on a few different levels ... they play more opponents and they play each team more times
- injuries to your team and the other team plays a much bigger part in football than baseball ... and there’s a heck of a lot more injuries in football ...

Sorry bro .. i got nuttin against analytics and they do have their place in football .. no doubt ... but NO ONE has made a compelling case to me about how analytics helps in talent evaluation and acquisition being more than “combine” number type stuff ...

I’m sure analytics plays a part in it ... but me thinks after doing the math its a much much much much smaller part than u think ...

I just laid out part of my case on why i don’t think its very helpful with talent evaluation ... other than “Bakes an analytical” dream I’ve heard zero as to how it helps ... and KJ was on record long before coming here that he loved Bake .... so Wippiee doo for analytics .. *L* ...

I’ve also asked how u do an analytics comparison between guys like Haskins and Murray .. very little data on both of them ... played in totally different conferences with totally different talent around them in totally different schemes andhad two entirely different skill sets .. did they have any common opponents at all? ..

U want guys that started longer ... OK ... how do u do ananalytics comparision to Bake and Lamar ... see above ...

What u see is whats important here ... the good ones use the numbers to confirm what they see ...

The issue isn't PFF - the issue is people's understanding of PFF grades and especially Mary Kay's headline which is totally misleading. It has nothing to do with 2019 - the grades are all based on past performance and how they played in 2018. It has nothing to do with "talent" or projections for 2019 - it's how PFF graded each player's performances in 2018. Disagree with PFF grades if you want - but what they did isn't peeing on the Browns or trying to argue they aren't challenging for the division this year.

I know. She is the one who wrote the article, using those results and starting to compare them to what Harbaugh said.

PFF didn't write the article or starting comparing their results to Harbaugh comments.

Understand?

Thank-you

They had a set of criteria used....I can't disagree in total.

I have been going to 6-7 games a year for 13 years now.

I don't think our base is that loyal. I think the older base is loyal. The younger base not so much...and I don't blame them.

Our fans aren't very friendly towards other fans.

Calling a father and his family, including young children "assholes" isn't what a good fan base does.

Sorry, it just isn't. I find it embarrassing and disgusting.

I have never said you just go by the numbers. I just see you mocking Sashi whenever something like this comes up. I can't help it you can't see that MKC is taking the PFF numbers and making them in to something they aren't and using that as your argument.

If Mary Kay is your torchbearer, good luck with that.

Here is the original story, on ESPN+, and only available to + subscribers ....... with its headline:

Ranking the 2019 rosters for all 32 NFL teams
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/27013169/ranking-2019-rosters-all-32-nfl-teams

This is the story she reported on. Their ranking of all 32 teams.

Ah yes .. MKC ... she’s my touch bearer even though i think so highly of her I NEVER EVER EVER read her ..

I apologize to PFF ... i made the mistake of only reading the headline ... shocked she did this .. ...

I mock Sashi cause posters like device and Memphis and deputy and chs think hes way better than he was .. they give him way to much credit and say absurd things ...

Within a week of sashi’s firing i posted a thank u and good bye Sashi thread ... in it i thanked him for all the draft picks and setting the table so well for Dorsey ... i was also thrilled to see him go so a real GM could take over ...

Those guys say absurd things like he did a good job ... BS ... he did a great job acquiring picks and getting even more cap space .. he took over a team in real good shape and then left it in incredible shape cap wise and with a bounty of high quality picks .. like as good as the leagues ever seen good .. THANKS AGAIN SASHI ...

Now .. i agree with GM in that he did the job he was hired to to in THAT REGARD .. but he certainly wasn’t hired to field a team with no QB for his entire 24 game regime .... he certainly wasn’t hired to go 0 - 24 or 1 - 23 .. can’t remember when we won our game that year .. does it really matter .. *L* ... he certainly wasn’t hired to get fired after 24 games because he either directly dis obeyed the thief or just couldn’t get along with Hue ... he certainly wasn’t hired to throw cap space away on guys like Kenny Britt or Jamie Collins ... turns out Billicheck getting the third was actually a steal for him ... he certainly wasn’t hired to draft dudes like Corey Coleman at #15 in round 1 ... he certainly wasn’t hired to let young all pro tackles walk via FA w/o a fight ...

I know the good Sashi did .. im also not going to turn a blind eye to his MAJOR FLAWS and the mistakes he made .. that QB room he had heading into year 2 was 100% completely asinine ... i mean ... that was BEYOND DUMB!!!

And i won’t let revisionist historian posters change that .... not U GM ... not even sure we disagree ... if so its an honest disagreement with u dawg ...

NEVERMIND the apology to PFF ...

PEEN your turn bro ... ..

Thanks y-town ..

This interesting. Giving it a moment of thought, I reached a few conclusions. First, it maybe correct in light of what it used in evaluation. Second, it may be way off, because of the coaches replaced, pointing up the dramatic second-half improvement. You are as good as your metric. I feel this roster has a real potential for improvement and success beyond the individuals listed. The "team synergy" could be dramatic. But a few snaps in the present would help me a bunch.

This is based on how projected starters actually performed on the field in 2018. The Browns went 7-8-1 last year. Why is it so unreasonable that they'd be ranked 18th, off last year's grades?

They have the Pats, Rams, and Saints ranked 1, 2, and 3. That would be the Super Bowl champs, Super Bowl runner ups, and a team that easily could have been in the Super Bowl. Maybe they're onto something.

Remember this about the PFF grades: they're not scouting, or projecting future talent. They're grading what they actually see on the field and the Browns grades were undoubtedly weighed down by what happened in the first half off the season under Clueless you know who.

Talking about understanding Sashi while looking at the roster and QB room he assembled doesn't make for a compelling argument.

If we were fielding last years team again this year it would still be STUPID to take last years stats and rank last years roster18th in the league ... there’s NO ROOM FOR GROWTH of the fact we run by the dysfunctional one for 1/2 the year ...

Using last years stats to say this years roster is the 18th most talented in the league is even more MORNIC than if we wee fielding the same exact team ...

MG played with no on with Vernon’s pass rush ability and vice versa ... u think that might affect their play a little and maybe slightly improve their stats ... theirs 20 other examples like that at least ...

I can’t believe u guys are giving this any credence .... god bless u ... i have a clear view of the forest through the trees .... u oughta check it out .. its awesome ...

I don't believe it, BUT we haven't proven anything yet.

Until we do, expect the bad press.

Clearly, the methodology that was used is not favorable to the Browns at all. I can acknowledge this and also realize that it's not such a big deal.

The Browns improved greatly as the season went on. We all expect some of our key players, for example Mayfield, Ward, Garrett, and others, to improve. There's a lot of young talent on this team. Given all the factors, the Browns are pretty obviously better than the 18th best roster in the NFL. However, to say that they have the Browns "have as much or more talent than anyone in the league", well I think there would be a lot of fans in New England, L.A. (pick one), New Orleans, Kansas City, and others that would dispute that.

Who's right? I think you have to seek out a qualified and unbiased source to even attempt to answer that question. Fans usually overrate their own team and underrate others. I can appreciate PFF's analysis and unbiasedness, even if going strictly off last year's grades has a lot of issues. If you have such a clear view of the forest, you should be able to understand that this is just another piece of data to go on. It has its own flaws, it's not the be all end all of this discussion, but then again, what is?

Whatever though, the end of the day, this is all a bunch of off-season filler that doesn't mean anything.

I’ve NEVER EVER EVER come close to overrating our talent ... speak for yourself bro ... i love the browns but it don’t mean i close my eyes to their deficiency's like most ...

I’ve been considered negative since day 1 on this board up through last year ... last year i had the audacity to predict 6 wins ... i was optimistic for the first team EVER last year ... if u consider predicting 6 wins optimistic ... *L* ...

I could care less what their fans think .. i’ve Been ridiculed on this board every year for telling the truth about how little talent we’ve had compared to what all but myself and a few posters on this board thought ... myself, Pit, Vers have been called negative forever cause we don’t overrate our teams ... right up til last year when i went rogue ... *LOL* ..

I can fairly evaluate our talent ... just cause u can’t ain’t my problem ... i’ve been wrong about a million things on here but not once have been far off about our talent and what our record would be ... nd i’ve Been consistently one of the most realistic posters on this board ..

I’ve given the challenge 10 times now ... u wanna pick a roster and we can compare ... lets go bro ...

And he chefs can’t carry are jocks anymore bro ... they lost a lot this of season ... A LOT ... we on the other hand LOADED UP once again ... ya’all need to move on to THIS YEAR ... its not last year ... ENTIRELY DIFFERENT TEAMS!!! ... last years ancient history dawg ... ancient ...

Pick a team .. lets roll bro ..

And Haus ... regardless ... that is a moronic way to predict anything for thefollowing season ... this is exactly why .... STATS ARE FOR LOSERS .... u can make any story u want using them ...

The Chiefs lost Dee Ford, but added Frank Clark. I think that's an upgrade.

Chris Jones is still a beast.

Tyrann Mathieu is a massive upgrade.

I think their defense will be better this year.

... Who remembers David Terrelle, Da Vid,

I will say, I saw a nfl. something/ lineups, which listed Antonio Callaway as the 120th or more WR,

I'm like WHAT!

Callaway already is a top 20, maybe top 10 Wr in the N.F. freakin whole League, and I'll stand by that until if health or offfield issues take him off the field.

Antonio Callaway, Just get him on the field, just get him the dang ball!

I think the Browns are a good team and have said during this offseason that they have the most talent in the AFC North. I actually agree with Harbaugh on that.

That's about as far as I'm willing to go with that. Even that level is pretty amazing, considering where we were in recent memory.

You want to say that we're the most talented team in the league, that's on you. I'm not going to take you up on your challenge (though I'll suggest my own in a minute) because it will be too open to bias and interpretation. What's your methodology going to be? Look at the rosters and go, this guy is better than that guy, and so on? I'll pass.


It could be you turn out to be right, but I'm going to take a wait and see approach. I wouldn't put the Browns in the top 5 in the NFL in terms of talent-- not yet anyway. We could still get there.

Here's the thing though. You don't have to have your back and forth with me about the Browns roster. You could actually make money on it, albeit in a roundabout way. Here: https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-over-under-win-totals

Browns over/under is 9 wins. This means that if they win more than 9 games, you win money (this is an easy bet if you think the Browns are the most talented team in the league, or at worst, top 3 or so.)

Win 9 games and you push.

Win less than 9 games and you lose. But how often does the best team in the league win less than 9 games?

Now I know that these lines aren't perfect, there are some inefficiencies, but there's more to these things than "Oh, they just set those things so there's equal action on both sides." Vegas is full of geniuses who think they can beat the juice but really don't have a clue.

I forgot about Frank Clark .. they also got Spags as a DC ... so that should be an improvement over the last dude even though their switching to a 4 - 3 ..

They also lost Justin Houston ... there D will prolly be better ... but not near good enough ...

We have way more talent than them on the D side of the ball ...

The chiefs on O would end up slightly better than us ... slightly ... and that depends on what happens with Hill ... and i mean slightly .. were actually the only team in the league with more weapons then them on O ... Hill/Kelce/Watson/Williams is a real formidable foursome ... id give OBJ/VG an edge over Hill/Kelce ever so slight ... Calloway buries Watkins cause he can’t stay on the field and then Chubb/Duke bury Williams/Hyde ... and they have no one for Higgins and when Hunt comes back ... well ... its not fair ..

I would give Mahommes the nod over Bake and there OL has a major hole but i’d Give it the nod over ours ...

On D .. .. its not even close ...

Our DL and secondary kicks there’s butts .. not even close ...

LBers are both meh ...

Thanks for explaining how betting works ... i learned a lot ... ...

And BTW ... having the most talent in our division is no big whoop .. our divisions down ...

The west and south and even possibly the Jill’s and jets may make the east a decent division ... our division may be the least talented in the AFC this year ...

Not really. Not if the books want to make money.

I do noth think there are any pushovers this year .. we have to be prepared for everyone.

We went 7-8-1 last year, with an ineffective HC and OC. I don't get why some think of 9 or 10 wins as some impossible task. All we have to do is win 1.5-2.5 more games than we did last year.

This year is a different year, and we should be better in all areas. Special teams should be greatly improved. Offense should be much better, with Baker, Chubb, and OBJ going from day 1. We were 3rd in the division in defensive scoring against, allowing 24.5 PPG. (Pitt 22.5, and Balt 17.7) Cincy was #30 in the NFL .... but we were in no danger of reaching Baltimore level last year. We did add some high quality guys on defense. We should be better.

There is also the confidence that come from not being the team that went 1-31, anymore.

I do happen to believe that the AFCN will still be a tough fight. I don't see any real pushovers. Even Cincy will be better, with Dalton back. However, every year something happens with a few teams that changes everything for a handful of teams. For us, last year, it was Baker improving, even after the upheaval of changing coaches, HC and OC, mid-season. Sometime changes are good, and sometimes they rip the bottom out of a team. This is the biggest question mark on this season.

However, if we have a mostly healthy season, I think that we can win at least 10 games.