DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Deficit Will Reach $1 Trillion Next Year, Budget Office Predicts

Deficit Will Reach $1 Trillion Next Year, Budget Office Predicts

WASHINGTON — The federal budget deficit is growing faster than expected, even as President Trump muses about more tax cuts and other ideas that would add to government debt.

The deficit will reach $960 billion for the 2019 fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, and $1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office said in updated forecasts released on Wednesday. Previously, it had projected an $896 billion deficit for 2019 and $892 billion for 2020. Those numbers would be even higher, if not for lower-than-expected interest rates, which are reducing the cost of servicing the national debt.

Rising deficit projections are the result of sluggish growth in federal revenue after Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts went into effect, and several bipartisan agreements to raise military and nondefense domestic discretionary spending, which Mr. Trump signed into law.

Typically, the budget deficit shrinks when unemployment is low. Mr. Trump’s administration has defied that trend.

Sign Up for On Politics With Lisa Lerer
A spotlight on the people reshaping our politics. A conversation with voters across the country. And a guiding hand through the endless news cycle, telling you what you really need to know.

SIGN UP
He has not pushed Congress to enact any of the major cuts to federal spending that he lays out each year in his official budget proposal. His tax cuts have not come close to paying for themselves via faster economic growth, as Republicans promised they would. The budget office said on Wednesday that it expects growth of 2.6 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2020, well below the more than 3 percent growth the Trump administration has promised for those years.

Mr. Trump’s indifference to deficits has shattered his campaign promise to not only balance the budget, but to pay off the entire national debt. And it has left his fellow Republicans, who won deficit-reduction measures under President Barack Obama at a cost to what was still a fragile economic recovery, in a bind. Congressional Republicans have largely gone along with Mr. Trump’s moves to add more debt, even as they insist they will return to shrinking the deficit if Mr. Trump wins a second term in office.

The president has talked in recent days about moving to unilaterally reduce capital gains taxes, a move that is estimated to add $100 billion to deficits over the next decade, and to cut payroll taxes, which could reduce revenues by $75 billion a year for every percentage point cut in payroll tax rates.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump said he was not looking to push through a tax cut right, a reversal from his comments on Tuesday, when he said he was looking at both a payroll tax cut and indexing capital gains for inflation.

“I’m not looking at a tax cut now,” Mr. Trump told reporters. He added that he would need a letter from the Attorney General in order to change the tax treatment of capital gains and that it was also not something he was currently considering.

“It’s not something I love,” he said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/us/po...e-predicts.html


Trump says the economy is going great, then says they are looking for ways to fix it... smh

Truckers and farmers who voted for Trump are starting to blame his policies for their economic woes

The right-leaning laborers who helped elect Donald Trump to the presidency in 2016 are starting to sour on the real estate scion — truck drivers and farmers.

"He has not affected our business in a positive way," one truck driver, who asked for anonymity to protect their small business, told Business Insider. "He's killing our business. If consumers aren't buying, then there is no demand. This really isn't about my political leanings — it's pure business."

On Monday, Trump reportedly had to have a two-hour Cabinet meeting about increasing blowback from farmers. Trump campaigned in Iowa with the promise to support ethanol, which helped secured the vote from the state's 140,000 farmers, who are largely involved in corn.

As Reuters reported, there's a "tide of rising anger in Farm Belt states" after the administration ruled this month to allow oil refineries to use a smaller amount of ethanol while mixing gasoline. Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley didn't mince words on the topic: "They screwed us."

Even before the ethanol decision, farmers have been speaking out against the president. Bloomberg reported earlier this month that Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue was confronted by a group of enraged farmers at a fair in rural Minnesota.

Farm income in the US dropped to $63 billion in 2018, which is about half its 2013 level. That's a 16% dip from 2017, according to USDA data.

Soybean, grain, dairy, and livestock farmers in particular have been slammed in the Trump trade war, which will add 10% tariffs on some $300 billion of Chinese goods. In response, China's imports of US agricultural goods are down 20%.

Government subsidies have been directed to relieve farmers whose wages have been hampered, but farmers say it's not enough. Bob Kuylen, a farmer of 35 years in North Dakota, told CNBC in Aug. that government subsidies for his 1,500-acre wheat and sunflower farm covers $15 per acre. Kuylen lost $70 per acre this year, however.

"It's really, really getting bad out here," Kuylen told CNBC. "Trump is ruining our markets. No one is buying our product no more, and we have no markets no more."

Trucking has suffered in 2019, too. Some truck drivers attribute this downturn in the market to Trump's trade war.

Transport research groups reported that the volume of trucks purchased in July fell to its lowest level in nearly 10 years. The number of loads needing to be moved in the spot market tumbled by 37% this July compared to one year ago, and rates have fallen by as much as 18%.

The Cass Freight Index says year-over-year trucking volumes have slipped for eight consecutive months. In June, factory-activity growth was its slowest since October 2016, according to the Institute for Supply Management. That means manufacturers didn't receive as many orders and there were fewer things to move.

Analysts say truckers are seeing their pay drop not because of the trade war, but because of other factors specific to the trucking industry. Experts have said an exceptionally vibrant 2018 may be the bigger reasons for the downturn in trucking. Last year, trucking was incredibly profitable, with record-low bankruptcies, remarkably high rates, eight-month-long wait lists for new trucks, and huge bumps in trucker pay.

Alienating a key demographic

Truck drivers and farmers are two of the most conservative jobs in the US. A Verdant Labs analysis of Federal Elections Commission data found that nearly three-quarters of farmers and truck drivers are Republican.

About 75% of truckers said they planned to cast their ballots for Trump, according to an Overdrive magazine survey from 2016. It's not clear how many farmers did the same, but more than 75% of voters in the Farm Belt states voted for Trump.

Both groups are politically influential. Farmers are so involved in trade discussions and lobbying that Smithsonian Magazine called agriculture " a political weapon." Four farmers ran for Congress last year. And the agribusiness industry as a whole has spent $2.5 billion in lobbying from 1998 to 2019 — $100 million more than defense.

Trucking has its strengths in numbers. Some 1.8 million Americans are long-haul truckers, and they're highly engaged. Among the segment of truckers called owner-operators— who are independent, rather than company drivers — nearly 90% are registered voters and more than half have contacted an elected official on an issue.

Trump secured the presidency in 2016 in part because he campaigned among both groups. But alienating that demographic might cause further pain in his quest for re-election. Several polls indicate that Trump is "losing voters" to progressive Democratic candidates like Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

"With these countries not buying American goods, and American companies not making major purchases, he created a bad deal for businesses that rely on our trade with these countries," Georgia-based truck driver Eric Wedlowe told Business Insider.

https://www.businessinsider.com/truckers-farmers-trump-voters-blaming-2019-8

How come the deficit dropped under Obama and Clinton, yet keeps going up under self described “fiscal conservatives”?

What we need is another tax cut for corporations and the top 10% the benefits will ..... trickle down!

The US is utterly dependent on a running deficit.....there is literally no way that we could ever conceivably run the American Empire without racking up a grand deficit....

Any talk of ending this trend is a fantasy, or a political tool to ensnare out-of-touch voters...

This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

I agree. But, sadly, it's true.

No, it isn’t.

We can balance the budget. We just don’t want to.

I guess I agree with that also.

We COULD, but it would COST those that pay taxes. And much spending would have to be cut as well.

Show me a politician that will favor those 2 things...........and tell me how much it would cost me in taxes.

I dunno if they’re out there. I do know of a politician that has solid policies that would save us money in the long term, like Warren.

However, I don’t look at taxes as a dirty word. Especially when I see other countries with balanced budgets, good debt/GDP ratio and higher taxes that end up with better public education, lower violence, lower poverty rates, and in general, happier people.

You and I don’t view taxes in the same light.

I don't view taxes as a dirty word. I view the amount I pay as a theft.

You are correct, we don't view taxes in the same light. Perhaps that's because you have a guaranteed income, where as I rely on people with expendable income to hire me? I don't know...........

But on top of my guaranteed income, I still pay income and property taxes, as well as my wife who works.

Please don’t assume you have some moral high horse when it comes to paying taxes. You and I walk two very different paths, and ultimately it’s not my fault you decided to make the career decisions you made.

Don't forget comparatively better working conditions and pay.

I never said you and your wife don't pay taxes. Thanks.

And yes, there's a small part of me that wishes I'd have gone in a different direction and worked for 30 years and gotten a guaranteed pension and discounted health care, etc.

That's the truth.

As it is, I bust my butt to get work. And that's just fine. I can rest assured I'll never be as well off as you seem to be, and that's fine with me also.

I know where you live. I don't know about available jobs in your area, but around here, $15 starting off is common - in fact, even more.

Problem is, you need to show up for work, clean and sober.........and show up for your 40 hours.

That’s fine but there was absolutely zero reason for you to even mention my income in this discussion.

Great, you work hard. So does the majority. Cool.

So please keep your personal opinions about my income to yourself.

We are talking big picture financial policies. Stay on topic.

Do you struggle with this bit Arch? I could see that...

Sore subject for you I see. Sorry.

BOTH sides suck yet so many folks keep standing up for one side or the other when neither is any better than the other.

It’s not sore. It’s that for years, every time we talk about taxes, you start whining about your career choices and taxes while trying to take shots at mine.

It’s annoying.

Yeah. It's annoying.

I'll stop there.

Coolio

So anyways, yes there are ways we can most certainly balance the budget.

Tax cuts don’t exactly help with that, however.

It's not the amount of money the government collects from the people thats the problem. It's the amount of money they spend. Just like most of the american public. They spend more than they make.

says the goper sheep who only want gov’t spending cuts when a dem is in the WH.

Typical reply for one that can no longer support their own voting decisions. I feel for you dawg.

Oh I still support all of my voting decisions.

Forget all the other side arguments - this right here cuts to the heart of the most important aspect of all of this.

If you think the Gov't has to run at a deficit (I disagree) - if you think they are all as bad as each other (I disagree) - if you think any/all tax is too much and theft and/or doesn't make a difference to the deficit (I disagree) and if you think that spending is the only part of the equation (I disagree) ... all fine with me. We don't need to talk about that. I won't try to change your mind.

What I'd like to do is highlight and discuss how one party (GOP) talks about small government and fiscal responsibility while claiming the other party (Dems) only want to increase the size of the government & increase taxes. . . .. . . And yet, when you look at the history of what each party does when it is in power - the results are anything but this. We can debate the impact of the recession that Obama took over and how much and how fast he spent with his stimulus package etc - but when you look at the trend at after this and at the end of his 2nd term .... why did that trend of the deficit reducing need to change when Trump inherited a thriving, healthy economy ??? Reagan increased the size of the Gov't while talking the opposite. Why don't people pay attention to historical facts instead of listening to the propaganda that is spewed?

I agree. The deficit should’ve continued to drop under trump, and yet it’s increasing at a ridiculous rate. And now with the global slowdown, combined with this trash ass bill to suspend the debt ceiling that both parties are responsible for, it’s gonna get even worse in the coming months.

Yeah, let's put tax cuts in the same conversation we would an average American household...

"You know something? I'm having a problem paying my bills. As a matter of fact, I'm falling further and further behind over time. You know, I think if I would just cut my income it would help all of that. With less money I could do a better job of paying my bills."

Now people will come back by saying all of the same stupid BS they say about how tax cuts make the economy stronger. How trickle down economics work. How it advances increasing jobs.

Let's look at the jobs aspect really quick. Now let's look at something from the perspective of a business owner.

"You know, I received quite a bit of money from my tax cut. My business hasn't grown that much, but I think I'll just hire more employees anyway. I mean I don't really need them and running my business in the most efficient way possible makes the most financial sense, but to hell with all of that. I'll just hire people I don't really need."

pretty much bro.

i agree with the notion that tax cuts to middle and lower classes help, as well as *some* small businesses.

but when it comes to national policy....i mean come on, how many times do we have to go through the disasters of trickle down before people get it?

giving a bunch of corporations who already pay little to no taxes a tax cut, as well as wealthy people tax cuts, doesn't create demand. no business is gonna go out there and higher people out of the goodness of their hearts.

if there's no increase in demand for a product, then a business will not increasing production for said product. i mean this is basic economic stuff right here. the average american doesn't need a degree to understand that.

but i mean look whats already happening. they are talking about cutting taxes AGAIN.

yea, thats really gonna help.....

Not quite the same thing - but the National Debt shot up under Bush I, Reagan and Bush II. It went down under Clinton. It shot up under Obama - but at the very end of his term the trend started down .... Yet many bury their head in the sand and simply repeat GOP means small Gov't and fiscal responsibility and Dems mean the opposite. It's really amazing. Repeat a lie often enough and people believe, regardless of facts.

Sweet.

Oh, no, I don't have a problem being clean of drugs, and sober. Thanks for offering that insinuation though. Just 1 more thing you are wrong about.

I didn't make the insinuation, I just turned it back on you.

So much for fiscally responsible republicans again..

Just wait for the democrat to get into office and they will start complaining again....

oxymoron... fiscally conservative republican.. there is no such thing..

How?

“The Chosen One”

Like I said when I voted. He was a better choice than Hillary for me. That does not mean he was a good choice, just the lesser of two evils.