DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Why is Nick Chubb getting low grades, low value from analytics websites?

Yeah, I'm posting it because I'm mentioned in the article. I'm essentially a celebrity. Bow before your God, mortal Browns fans!

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Earlier this week I wrote about how Pro Football Focus graded the Browns against the Rams. One story had offensive grades. The other had defensive grades.


One of the grades that really stood out was Nick Chubb’s. He had 23 carries for 96 yards, both season-highs, as well as a 30-yard screen play that set up a touchdown. And yet, his offensive grade was 60.3 against the Rams. His rushing grade was his lowest of the season, 56.4.

This was met with some skepticism by readers because, as my grade stories noted, PFF has explained its grading this way: 100-90 elite; 89-85 Pro Bowler; 84-70 starter; 69-60 backup; 59-0 replaceable.

This led one reader - @brownsfansince79 – to note on Twitter: “It's hard for me to take this too seriously when Nick Chubb graded out as one point above ‘replaceable.’”

How can Chubb be considered a backup- or replaceable-level running back?

It’s worth taking a closer look.

1. Some basic understanding

PFF grades aren’t super complicated to understand, but they’re the best at explaining them, so I’m not going to teach that class here. But I do need to point a couple things.

First, PFF isn’t grading overall talent, just performance on the field. Also, players aren’t graded based on yardage totals and simple counting stats because, as most football fans know by now, stats don’t always tell the whole story.

Second, PFF grades each player on each play, noting that “Even watching a game closely can result in something of a mental highlight reel on a player – remembering the few good and bad plays and making an overall judgement based on the balance of those – but it can be the other 40 snaps in the game that are being ignored that held the true key to his performance.”

2. Chubb’s impressive rookie season

Before we get into Chubb’s value for this season we need to look at last season.

Chubb rushed for 996 yards as a rookie, which was notable because he only got 16 carries over the first six games. And his 5.2 yards per carry average was tied for fourth-best in the league.

PFF thought highly of Chubb last season. His offensive grade (87.4) was first among running backs and the best offensive grade on the Browns. His 90.2 rushing grade was second to the Chargers’ Melvin Gordon III.

But it was more than total yards and yards per carry that earned him that grade.

For example, PFF has an elusive rating, which measures the success and impact of a runner independent of blocking. It’s aimed at seeing how hard he was to bring down and includes missed tackles forced and yards after contact in its formula. Chubb’s elusive rating as a rookie was 103.3, sixth-best.

Browns fans were reminded of that elusiveness on a screen pass against the Titans in Week 1.

Breakaway percentage measures yardage gained on big plays (15 yards or more). Chubb’s percentage as a rookie was 47.0, which ranked 12th. He had 28 runs of 10 or more yards, seventh-most among running backs.

Where Chubb really excelled last season was in yards after contact. His 4.47-yard average was first among running backs with at least 50 percent of their team’s carries. Even if you take out his 103 yards after contact on three carries against the Raiders, his 4.0 average was still second-best.

3. Chubb through three games

That brings us to this season.

Chubb’s offensive grade is 68.4 (34th) and his rushing grade is 64.5 (46th), far from last season’s marks. His elusive rating is 51.6 (36th), and his breakaway percentage is 21.0 (36th).

Basically, he’s not producing big runs like last year, and he’s also not avoiding tacklers like he did. Both of those facts were displayed on the Browns’ fourth-and-9 draw play against the Rams. Chubb was stopped by Eric Weddle after two yards.

The point here isn’t that Chubb should’ve converted the fourth-and-9 play, but that he was brought down by the first tackler.

“That was on me. I got tackled by one person and I need to find a way to be better and break the tackle, get around him, over him, or something,” he said. “I am taking that one upon myself.”

Chubb’s yards after contact are down to 2.97 (36th) and his yards per carry, 4.0, are currently tied for 44th. His eight avoided tackles are tied for 12th. Another way of looking at it is he averages an avoided tackle on 13.7 percent of his carries this season. Last season, that percentage was 22.9, and he had the second-most avoided tackles among running backs.

Against the Rams, Chubb’s average yards after contact were 2.83, his lowest of the season, and he avoided just one tackle, according to PFF.

Not all numbers have declined. Chubb has shown improvement as a pass blocker. It has only been 12 pass blocking plays, but his grade (88.2) is second-best among running backs. Last season, he ranked 105th (51.7) and allowed five pressures and had a penalty in 35 pass blocking snaps.

4. PFF isn’t alone in this view of Chubb

Football Outsiders, another analytics website, the founders of that DVOA metric you’ve heard so much about, also take an average view of Chubb.

(DVOA and its relative, DYAR, both measure how far above or below the league average a player is performing. The difference is that DVOA looks at value per play while DYAR is total value of the player.)

Chubb’s DVOA is -9.1 (29th). The negative number means he’s performing below the league average. His DYAR is -1, also ranked 29th.

Football Outsiders notes that an average performance isn’t the worst thing because “an average level of performance is better than that provided by half the league, and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy workload is valuable.”

As for that workload, Chubb’s 58 carries are third-most in the league this season.

A couple other Football Outsider numbers help explain Chubb’s DVOA/DYAR. Success rate measures a player’s consistency when taking into account down and distance (For example, five yards on third-and-4 are more valuable than five yards on third-and-12). Chubb’s success rate this season is 33 percent (39th).

Last season looked like this for Chubb: DVOA 1.1 (24th), DYAR 80 (18th), Success rate 50 percent (19th). Pretty much the epitome of average performance

Another advanced stat to consider: Next Gen Stats has an efficiency rating that measures the total distance a runner travels per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a North/South runner the player is. Last season, Chubb was seventh (3.48). This season, he’s tied for 22nd (4.07).

5. What about the offensive line’s role?

Or course, the offensive line impacts Chubb’s performance. Last season he had the second-lowest yards before contact in the league. While the Browns were PFF’s third-ranked pass blocking unit, they were 16th as running blockers.

This season, those numbers have almost reversed. The Browns are seventh in run blocking grades, and 11th in pass blocking. (About that pass blocking grade: PFF gives much of the blame to Baker Mayfield, who is credited with 10 of his own pressures, second-most in the league among quarterbacks.)

As for Football Outsiders, the Browns offensive line isn’t getting their running backs stuffed as much this season (16 percent, ninth) as last season (23.1, 29th). Although their power ranking – percentage of short-yardage runs that result in a first down or TD – was low last year (50 percent, 32nd) and is still low this year (33 percent, 28th).

6. So is Chubb a good running back or not?

Last season tells us Chubb has the ability to be among the best in the NFL. But the Browns’ three games this season show that he is not playing up to his rookie level.

The offensive line has improved as a run-blocking team, but Chubb isn’t breaking long runs, or breaking as many tackles. Yes, 96 yards is still 96 yards. But as we’ve learned, yardage totals don’t mean everything.

This isn’t to say Freddie Kitchens was right or wrong to not use Chubb in the final moments against the Rams on Sunday. It’s also not a call for D’Ernest Johnson or Dontrell Hilliard.

Maybe look at it this way.

You don’t want more Nick Chubb. You want a more efficient Nick Chubb.

Link

He doesn’t quite look as explosive to me ... it may be that he’s hesitant just a touch with a new system? Of course, let’s watch him run for 200 yards next game

I feel like both he and Mayfield don't have that same "to hell with it" attitude that they had when they were rookies. When you kind of don't know any better so you take some chances. Defenses maybe don't expect you to take those chances, so you can capitalize on that (though it can also lead to big mistakes). In year 2, you take an extra second to think "hmm, maybe I should do something different", and that extra second is all it takes for the defense to catch up to you.

Second guessing your instincts, I guess. It's pretty natural, we all do it. Not saying this explains anything, just a thought.

I think once Mayfield and Chubb (especially Mayfield) just loosen up, things will improve. If you worry about making mistakes, you'll probably make mistakes. Sometimes you just have to let it rip.

I could not agree more with that post.

Not playing with house money anymore has caused them to tighten up a bit.

bong hit before the game, perhaps.

This article is a great primer for those who do not understand PFF and their approach to grading.

Well said ... some people can’t handle expectations or pressure (not saying they are those types of players for sure) ... but it’s a definite adjustment .

Another thing this reminds me to bring up: do we miss Duke Johnson at all? He was a pretty steady force, almost like a safety valve TE (that we desperatlely need)

I can't see how anybody thinks Chubb is not playing at full tilt.

Duke isn't exactly setting the world on fire in Houston. 2 caries for 2 yards last week. Numbers extrapolated would be about 480 rushing and under 300 receiving, most of that inflated by a solid week one in a shootout with the Saints.

Reading some Texans fans - they're trying to figure out why scheme can't seem to get him the ball in space.

I'm sure playcalling and formations also help to explain it....

Too much shotgun formations,specially considering Baker is no Deshaun, Lamar or Kyler...

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html

This is an insight, especially for Mayfield, who touches the ball much more than others. This season is not a gunslinger type of season like last year. We did more with less, and he was like a younger Brett. His hanging onto the ball and taking sacks has been pathetic compared to last year.

Chubb needs to run more effectively IMO as pointed out. We were counting on him to help set up some deeper go routes and such. This problem is effectively a two-headed monster, kind of self-defeating prophecy. Great article. Wonder if it can help the Freddie & Monken tug of war we seem to be suffering under.

j/c:

I don't think it has anything to do w/playing w/house money or his attitude. Running the rock is far different than playing QB. It's the one position where you need the least amount of practice.

I think Chubb is the same dude as last year. I think he maybe performed a little bit better than his skill set last year and this year its been reversed. I think things will even out.

PFF ratings are nice, but they are not full proof. I've seen some whacked ratings before. They had John Hughes as the number one ranked DT in football and he wasn't even starting for us.

I think it would be interesting to look at Chubbs' numbers by comparing different categories, such as:

--When we are in shotgun
--When Baker is under center
--11 Personnel
--12 Personnel
--13 Personnel
--21 Personnel
--22 Personnel
--Down and distance
--Score of the game

I think that the criteria might be revealing. For example, we might be able to ascertain that Chubb runs much better w/a FB? With two TE sets? Etc, etc.

One last note, I don't think his ratings this year are all that accurate. I'm not saying he is lighting it up, but I am not seeing a lot of yards being left on the field. I am not bragging, but I do have some knowledge about the RB position.

This is a great example of not understanding the PFF scoring system and what it means. Having the highest score at a position does not automatically equate to being considered the best player in the NFL at their position, in this case DT.



For those who would like a better understanding of the site's grading, in addition to the above article, go here.

https://www.pff.com/pff-player-grades

Chubb is an elite back. Any data that disputes this needs re-calibrated.

Agreed.

Chubb has been fine, as far as I’m concerned. The Browns have a much-maligned offensive line, but I think their shortcomings have been more evident in run blocking than pass protection. In fact, I’d argue that the outside zone/stretch run with Chubb is one of the few staples of this offense.

As far as stats:

Shotgun: 33 carries, 153 yards, 4.6 YPC
Under Center: 25 carries, 80 yards, 3.2 YPC, 1 TD

Leading: 18 carries, 59 yards, 3.3 YPC, 1 TD
Tied: 10 carries, 30 yards, 3.0 YPC
Trailing: 30 carries, 144 yards, 4.8 YPC

1st & 10: 32 carries, 155 yards, 4.8 YPC, 1 TD
1st & < 10: 2 carries, 1 yard, 0.5 YPC
1st & > 10: 3 carries, 9 yards, 3.0 YPC
2nd & 4-6: 3 carries, 0 yards, 0.0 YPC
2nd & 7-9: 3 carries, 14 yards, 4.7 YPC
2nd & 10+: 8 carries, 33 yards, 4.1 YPC
3rd & 4-6: 1 carry, 2 yards, 2.0 YPC
3rd & 7-9: 0 carries
3rd & 10+: 0 carries
4th & 4-6: 0 carries
4th & 7-9: 1 carry, 2 yards, 2.0 YPC
4th & 10+: 0 carries
3rd/4th & Short: 3 carries, 1 yard, 0.3 YPC

The following stats include four carries for D’Ernest Johnson and one carry for Jarvis Landry, Dontrell Hilliard, and Baker Mayfield.

11 personnel: 46 carries, 207 yards, 4.5 YPC, 1 TD
12 personnel: 16 carries, 51 yards, 3.2 YPC, 1 TD
10 personnel: 2 carries, 6 yards, 3.0 YPC
13 personnel: 1 carry, 1 yard, 1.0 YPC

Thank you. Great information.

Is there anyway you could incorporate last year's stats w/these? Don't do it if it is too much work, but it would give us a better sample size.

Thanks again for the information you provided. Good stuff.

You can find 2018 information in the following links:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ChubNi00/splits/2018/

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/3128720/type/nfl/year/2018

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

Although, the personnel grouping stats are going to include the carries of Hyde, Johnson, Landry, etc.

Thank you.

Did you draw any conclusions while looking at the data?

this.

/endthread

check here.. I would copy/paste, but i know it'd look weird on here.

Nick Chubb - Stat Splits 2018

Thanks bro.

Basically, if it isn't 1st & 10, it's a pretty safe bet we aren't running.
If it is 3rd down, you don't have to worry about the run from us at all.

We've become far too predictable far too soon.

J/C
I heard someone have a good point: sometimes it’s important to RUN the ball when it’s 2nd and short ... that’s the down that teams usually take a “shot” ... but running it in that spot is usually a confidence booster. I’d like to see us run more on 2nd down

Yep. We had a 2nd and one after a 9yd run by Chubb about half way through the 2nd quarter vs the Titans. Down 10-6 in a game that had no flow for what seemed like a disjointed offense... We threw on 2nd and 3rd and had to punt. Deflated the fans and deflated the team. There's a time and a place to take your "shot" more often than not (to me) second and short means go get yourself a 1st down.

Yeah, but we will run on 4th and 9. So, we have that going for us.

I 100% agree. It's about situational awareness, more than just knowing the score, time remaining, TOs, etc.. but what are your players doing well at the moment and what are they doing not so well..

that's what bugged me the most about going 4 wide on 1st-4th and goal against the Rams.. it was clear Baker wasn't feeling it, he was struggling, he wasn't seeing the field particularly well... so rather than help him out, you put him on an island and put it all on his shoulders... poor personnel awareness at that point.

I think we need to go classic Bears on short yardage situations. Chubb at RB, and put Larry O in at FB. Dude is quick, gets his pads low, and knows how to penetrate the line.

Do any of these metrics show how effective he is by formation or for passing game? I think I would route him differently as far running game calls. He is faster than some sleds leading his blocking. Stats are half the game IMO, and can be telling. Any evidence that Treddie or Monken have adjusted Chubb's use depending on other offensive skills/situations? Seems he has been pretty limited, as has BM.

It certainly wouldn't hurt to try. And Larry definitely has the correct body for that

A few things there is a lot of talk on here about what is wrong with the Browns offense as its pretty darned obvious that they aren't clicking, da.

I think most of the talk is a bit premature personally, however that doesn't mean there isn't some problems.

I keep saying this I think for the most part the problems we have revolve around continuity coupled with youth. I also think defenses have adjusted to what Baker does.

One of the things he does is he constantly tries to push the ball down the field even when guys are running wide open underneath, he simply needs to start taking those plays. Defenses are dropping the linebackers deep, he must start checking the ball down quickly. Holding the ball to hit big chuck plays isn't working he and the Freddie need to go from primary to check-down quickly if they hit a few of these plays I believe the defense will come up and when they do then the big chunk plays will open up.

I believe this will be the adjustment, and its just an adjustment from there I believe this offense will flow. Freddie is getting receivers open for some reason Baker just isn't finding those guys or doesn't trust these guys to be where their suppose to be. I think Higgins being out has really taken a toll on Baker.

Finally I think we need to run the legs off of Chubb he is one of our better players in spite of some stat. If we can get Chubb rolling again it will draw the defense in.

But continuity is our greatest enemy if I take a lesson from all of this not playing the starters together in pre season has set this offense back I believe we are gaining ground although it may not look like it right now. At some point this offense will begin to flow then look the hell out. Next year we may get away with NOT playing our starters in pre season but this year I believe that fact has bitten us squarely on the ass.

By not playing guys in pre season we passed up any opportunity we may have had to build at least some continuity. Every year when I look at the Browns I see lack of continuity we put that issue in the rear view will be better from start to finish. Coming out of the gates so slow is the by product of change.

I think the offensive woes are directly tied to not playing together in the preseason. The constant change at RG in preseason didn't help either. And Baker trying to hit the big play every down is hurting too.

I thought that was a possibility as well. But by the time you are playing game three, you've already had more playing time than you would have had in pre-season.

Had they played a normal amount of snaps for the pre season they may still be in the hole but just maybe things start flowing game 3 instead of game 4 or game 4 instead of game 5. You get what I am saying plus pre season play is at a much slower tempo without a game plan.

I also think if your staff is ahead of the curve you're constantly looking at how to attack or contain yourself so you can anticipate and correct or adjust on the fly. If this had been done IMO the adjustments Baker needed to make have already been addressed. I have no way to know if they have or haven't already done those things granted?

It's hard to look explosive when he hardly gets the ball!

I'm just not so sure what could be accomplished by playing against opposing back up players.

And just out of curiosity, how many more games would you be willing to extrapolate your theory? Would you feel it would hold true if they keep struggling in game five, six or seven?

I would.
I've mentioned more than once that this O might not gel & flow until the 2nd half of the season.

Just as my preseason optimism was tempered compared to many Dawgs around here, so too is my current mood regarding the team and its record. No rooftop jumps in my future.

We still have 2/3 of a team. That won't win you many games in the NFL. Having said that, I'm seriously looking to see signs of improvement on O, even if it doesn't yet translate into wins. I think our D and ST's can keep us in games, but this O needs to start finding its stride.

BAL is not the defensive juggernaut they once were, and as such are beatable. I think our D has enough to contain Lamar and make BAL ordinary. I'd like to see our O take the next step in tomorrow's game, just so they can get some chemistry going.

What we were discussing is not getting reps in pre season. Much like yourself, I expected a slow start. First time HC, new DC and OC makes it hard to implement everything fluidly without hiccups along the way.

But my point was how far along in the season can we go until we stop blaming it on pre season reps? I mean what seems to be the problem to me is when a team shows man D and switches to the zone right before the ball is snapped.

During the pre season teams usually play rather vanilla D's and O's. They usually don't tip their hand too much going into regular season. I actually don't think we would have seen much of what we are actually having problems with at all during pre season.

So my question was actually how many games and reps during the regular season must the team go through until some people quit blaming our struggles on pre season reps? This will be week four. Three full games into the season have been played. Had we have played a full quarter in all of the other pre season games, since we played almost a full half in pre season game three, that would have been three quarters of a game played more by our starters. Most of that against vanilla D's without any of the disguises we are seeing now.

I guess I'm just wondering how much longer people will try to use the pre season as an excuse for what we're seeing now?