DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Season at the Quarter Mark - Expectations

SO I was looking at the upcoming games and thinking about what we've seen in the field so far and thinking about my pre-season expectations.

As the famous saying goes "expectations breed let-downs". That said, I like to think I'm a pretty cooly rational guy, not given to allowing my judgement to get too clouded by hype or emotions. I also know this is still very new and some things will change a lot in the next few games. So...

What so far exceeds your preseason expectations?
What is about exactly what you thought it would be?
What is below your preseason expectations?


I had predicted an 8-8 over all and a 2-6 or 3-5 at the mid-point but I think I might be able to revise upward... slightly. The next 3 games are brutal and I'll frankly be happy if we escape with another 2-2 in the 2nd quarter of the season, putting us at 4-4 at mid-point. The 2nd half of the season looks much easier at the moment. What's more, some of the teams on our schedule we thought would be pretty bad are looking even worse than expected. Not to say we won't lose some stupid games, we're still young with new everything and playing like it. But Kitchens seems to be getting the quick-out, play action, stick with the run plot again and Baker made pretty much all the right adjustments from game 3 to game 4. Those two points are, to me, the biggest difference. We have enough depth that our stars (Garret, Beckham) can soak up all the attention and the 2nd tier guys can and do shine. So we'll win games even with penalties and turnovers. I still don't know if we'll win enough to take the division or wild card slot. I think the division will be easier than the wildcard. We'll see.

Above Expectations:
Defensive secondary. Lot of injuries but they've risen to the challenge pretty well. I know this is an unpopular opinion but I worry about relying on Ward.
Special teams. Not a thing of beauty yet but they've settled down pretty quickly from a nerve wracking preseason. Which is a big relief. We took a few risks and they seem to be paying off. Or at least no back firing.
Some specific players: Mack Wilson, Damion Ratley, Devaroe Lawrence.. a few others maybe you can remind me of.


At Expectations:
Offensive Line - I figured this would be our Achilles heal this year. It's pretty much exactly what I anticipated but I'm glad that Kitchens is focusing on getting the ball out of bakers hands more quickly.
Baker Mayfield - It's rare a QB doesn't have a sophomore slump. It often doesn't have a lot to do with the player themselves as it is that defenses have tape they didn't have before and have an offseason to digest a player's instincts. The book is in on Bakers right-side roll outs for instance. He had a good game this week and I hope to see him continue to make adjustments and improve.
Kitchens and the Coaching Staff: I expected this to be a bumpy start. The glue is still very wet with this group but I'm encouraged that they seem to be making adjustments. Still over thinking things and not taking low hanging fruit but I'm cautiously optimistic. I'm also fully expecting more rookie coaching dumb things in our future and accepting that as an inescapable part of this journey.


Below Expectations:
Defensive line. Not bad really and they were pretty stout this game but I was hoping for super nuclear T-Rex exlosions. Really haven't heard much from Sheldon Richardson and until this game Olivier Vernon.


Curious where y'all at.

I think one area that’s ABOVE all of our expectations is the kicker ... he’s really steadied himself and has had a good first four games.

Also, the secondary’s depth has been phenomenal

Absolutely on both

1. Special Teams. The kicking game doesn't scare me like pre season, and we've been winning the field position battle quite regularly. Tackles on punts/kickoffs are crisp and sure. None of that sloppy/4 guys miss/8 yd becomes 22 yd return stuff this year. That is huge for me. I'm pleasantly surprised. +

2. Defensive Secondary. I've been elated that these guys haven't become the liability I think we all worried about. They've played their roles properly, have been played properly by the coaches, and have held their own so far. I'll feel better when the #1's return, but I'm sleeping pretty well with these current guys in the lineup. +



Offense. I wasn't surprised after about 3/4 the way through the TEN game. Looking rough from lack of time, reps, and chemistry. I thought the play calls were suspect until yesterday's game. I was prepared to watch this O struggle for perhaps half the season. Yesterday's game made me feel a little more confident about the next 3-4 games.

Defense. I thought they'd be good, and they have been. I still don't like seeing us get gashed up the middle as often as we have, so that could use some work. I like the pressure we've been able to apply in the backfield. 4th in the league averaging 3.5 sacks per game. QB hurries are good, as well- takes some pressure off the DB's. They are playing about as well as I expected, with room for improvement still. Me likey.



Not much to find here. I've been disappointed in the O but not surprised. I see them improving, fixing stuff, getting on the same page, so I'll stay off their case.

At the end of the first quarter, CLE is tied with the opposition. .500 ball is about what I expected. I just expected the W's & L's to come in different games (I thought we'd win games 1&2;lose games 3&4).

Blah Blah....

I am pleased with what I saw yesterday vs. the Rats. But I think the next three will be brutal. Record aside after this gauntlet, I am really hoping we don't get a raft of injuries. This stretch, if we emerge healthy and hopefully win one or two of the three, should help us down the road.
Injuries in the league are really going to change some outcomes, especially with QBs and key receivers out. Not much offense, not much winning is often the case.

Yeah, its so tough to project even 3 weeks out due to injuries ... the league can can change in a hearts beat

So Far, The running game, minus Duke Johnson, and no one in besides Hilliard, and Ernest behind Nick Chubb,
has done a little better than I thought it would, and the commitment to it even in the Jets game is, well it's supposed to be natural,

but I didn't think the Browns coaches were going to, well I expected them to totally abandon the run game because we're all used to dumb ideas like that being the normal.


What's about at expectations? The teams inability to close out games, even in the 2 wins, maybe "they" feel comfortable, I sure don't feel comfortable watching this team with a lead,
Give the Browns a lead and they act like they expect to lose it.

(look yesterday: Even after that 80+ yard run by Nick Chubb, they were still in position to lose that game,
Until the interception by Whitehead near the end zone, And Even "STILL" they were in position if you take away Hilliards Touchdown,

It's like... here are 4 completely unrelated things, that can most be explained as "anomilies", and they all helped, but as far as
just lining up and playing good football with a lead,

They Tense up, tensed up and, well other teams are extra motivated because they trail, but in general,

I didn't expect them to play very well when having a lead late, and they are about where I thought, except for anomilies, big breaks.

What's less than I expected?

The offenses ability to distribute the ball to a variety of different playmaking options is something I thought wouldn't be a problem,

Last year they really seemed to spread the ball around. This year it seems, even when things are working, they find one player and repeat it to them for a while, then something changes and they move on to something else, (maybe a different player to repeatedly give it to, but they only seem to
Well they seem to not be spreading the ball around as much as they did last year, and as much as I expected they wouldn't have trouble doing this year.

JC

To piggyback off that point, Hilliard gave us a nice spark yesterday ... he gave us a few good carries and yards

Good thread idea. Don't let others get you down.

Exceeding Expectations:

--Seibert. He's been very good thus far.

--Kush. I think this guy is playing very good football and it's going under the radar.

--Murray. Guy is a solid d-back. He is versatile and getting the job done.

At Expectations:

Most of the team. However, I will highlight Joe Schobert. I think highly of him and he has lived up to those lofty expectations.

Below Expectations:

--No comment.

Vers mentioned Murray and I’ll add to that ... about three weeks ago I said he was very subpar ... and he’s played admirably in his role. Props to him and bad on me

All of our RBs have been productive when given chances. They have all done well both running the ball, and catching the ball.

Based on our performance so far....I firmly believe that this team can beat any team in the NFL.....

Basically, every sunday we can win.....we finally have a competitive football team that can take the field and go toe-to-toe with anybody in the league....

I'm not saying we're going to win out for the season.....I'm just saying that we will be in every game from start to finish....The days of going into a sunday dreading another beatdown from whoever....those days are finally coming to an end...

I couldn't parse if my fear of them falling apart was the team or me just being a PTSD Browns fan but I definitely didn't feel confident in the win until much later than I probably should have. I was pretty mad they gave up that TD at the end. That felt very "old Browns", like they let up. I certainly flashed to the possibility of a 3 scores in 5 minutes total collapse scenario. If I was the DC, the team would be hearing quite an earful this morning about closing it out.

They indeed got some breaks and lucky bounces or "anomalies" yesterday but I don't know if that's pure luck or created luck. At some point, good teams, like successful people, create their "luck", which is not luck after all. It just looks that way to the game's loser, which has traditionally been us. So we don't trust that the talent and skill will actually win out consistently. That some phantom hand will snatch it away. We have a lot of talent on this team. If we can put it together just most of the time, we'll have lots of happy "anomalies" and lucky breaks.

Above: The overall defense and the depth, kicking game from both kicker and punter.

Expected: Chubb, Dline

Below: The overall Offense with emphasis on Baker and Freddie regressing from last year. I think they finally started getting it right this last game and expect more good things to come, but still expect bumps.

I honestly thought they would be the strong links coming into the season.

ok, my above expectations, I'm simply going to echo Dawgs4Life's sentments, the kicker/special teams, and the defensive depth, I also have to give credit to the OL, especially with injuries (same for the defense), after reflection, they have played well in most games, sans that first one but nobody played particularly well in that one. lol

now, my realistic expectations go to the defense overall, I think we all knew this defense would be good and they're showing just that and I think they'll get even better (now just imagine IF we had traded for Khalil Mack LOL), The run game, I also believe we all felt this could and would be a major strenth and it sure has been just that. Finally, I'll say WR's, OBJ has had only one BIG play but his presence is doing what we all thought itwould, draw attention, allowing other guys to get open.

below expectations, Baker, the offense in general, and the playcalling. Now, I will explain my perceptions, and I'm not actually crapping on anyone, it's just my observations. I've seen Baker hold the ball a bit too long, I've seen him not run when he's had truck lanes to run through, and I've seen him bail out of a pocket prematurely. Freddie's playcalling, at times, has been a bit of a head scratcher, and the offense, overall, has not played up to it's potential consistently.

I had to put something in that last category, this has not been a perfect team. LOL Having said what I've said about below/sub par play, at times, I think yesterday we seen what this offense and Freddie can do, and it still wasn't at full potential, OBJ stil has to really get rolling. I think much of the inconsistent play might be over, at least I hope so.

All of my criticisms could easily have been expected to some degree, young team, young coach, new players coming together...growing pains, in other words. So, I'm NOT crapping on anyone or the team, in fact, I think we will be just fine moving forward.

First place.

That's all I have to say.

2-2 is what I hoped for and we got that. I hope for the same in the 2nd quarter. I think the last half of the season is where we can go on a run.

The special teams are playing well. I can't say that is above what I expect, but I am happy with their play.

The D might be a tad below what I would expect, but we have had starting corners out for 2 games.

The O is below what I expect, but it looks like things may have gelled in the last game, so it is trending upward.

I think if we can split with SF/SEA ... and then split with NE/DEN and get to 4-4 ... it sets up very well for us afterwards

Looking at the balance of play over all 4 games and not letting myself focus solely on the last win .... I think based on the 4th game we can say there's been vast improvement but, overall:

Kitchens - Overall about as expected. It's a huge elevation from his previous roles. I do think he's focused on long term - with the goal being play offs and nothing else.

Offensive play calling - Well below expectations. I was expecting some bumps and needing time to grow into and learn a new offense.... I was not expecting to be so woefully inept and discarding everything that worked last year. 1st and goal from the 5 and we run 4 plays with an empty back field ... might be the single dumbest thing I can think of by any Browns team or individual.

Baker - Below expectations. I think he's been inaccurate and had happy feet there for a while.

WRs - About as expected but not all at the same time. We saw the best of OBJ at the Jets - we saw the best of Landry this last game. Higgins injured, Calloway suspended - so really unfair to gripe about your 5th string WR.

TE's - Well bellow expectations. I bought into some of the hype about the TE we got from the Chiefs ... he's ben BAD. Njoku, still underwhelming and then out injured. I'd love to have two of the guys from last year back on the roster. Ricky Seals Jones might be a decent find.

RB - at or exceeding expectations. I think of Chubbas a 2nd tier RB. Not in the same class as Gurley, Kamara, McCaffrey and Elliot ... But honestly I think he's getting into that elite company.

OL - as expected. I think they'll get better as the season goes. Scheme helps too. Nice to see them opening holes in the run game.

DL - Below expectations. I thought each position on the DL was going to be creating havoc with MG being the ring leader. They have been really good. Really solid - I am just hoping that they will create a bit more pressure and disruption more often.

LB - As or above expectations. I really like Schobert - and he's playing as well or better than ever. I have always like Kirksey and losing him was tough but our rookies and bench have been better than I expected as plug in starters.

CB - A tale of two halves. Disappointed with Greedy and Ward not being available. That's one characteristic that's always important. When on the field Greedy stepped up after game 1 - Wars still looks different than last year. Backups have been nothing short of phenomenal.

S - As expected or above expectations.

I think I might have had the team 2-2 at this point in the season. . . I was expecting better in games 1 and 2 ... game 3 was about how I was expecting to see them play and it was coaching that lost that game .... game 4 surpassed my expectations. Would LOVE to see us split the next 2 games vs SEA and SF.

I think with all of the hype, we simply lost sight of a couple things. Baker is a second-year QB. He totally obliterated the expectations around him last year, but it doesn't change the fact that he still needs to be brought along slowly. I'm hoping Kitchens realizes that if he wants that wide open throwing offense, he's going to fact to introduce it slowly. I think we need a couple oline upgrades if we want to do that, but if nothing else, Baker has to be brought along slowly.

I think we lost sight of the fact that Nick Chubb and the running game will make any offense work. He's certainly not as flashy and loud as our bigtime receivers, but the dude just silently gets work done. It became evident in the limited carries he got before Hyde was shipped out, and it became evident again when we were trying to throw the ball a ton in earlier games this season. Make sure Chubb gets his carries, and that will make it easier on everyone else.

I really don't think you can look at the first 4 games as a single entity given the rapid progress the team seems to be making from game to game. If anything, that first game could be considered a statistical outlier (unless they lay another egg like that down the road).

2 and 2 is right where I expected them to be...

How they got there is a little not how I expected though.

I didn't expect Baker to come out so flat. He's settled down though.

I didn't expect the Oline to get so dominated so easily... but Aaron Donald is a beast so there's that.

The past game with Baltimore has seen a glimmer of that Freddie Kitchens creativity that we all saw last year. I sincerely hope that continues.

This next month is going to going to be the the most important month for this team IMO. They're set up to take great strides going forward. And they're going to be tested the most IMO.

This 9ers game has Buzzsaw written all over it.

I hoped for 3 - 1 .. expected 2 -2 and was worried about 0 - 4. I still feel that we were a case of mono away from a very bad start to the season.

I expected to see Takitaki more, instead of Wilson. Is he injured ? If he is, I have not seen it. I knew he was questionable week 1 with a hamstring injury, but have heard nothing since.

I expected a good defense, and have not been disappointed. Greedy and Burnett may have difficulty reclaiming their jobs. The OL seems to have solidified, but think most of that has to do with Baker getting the ball out quicker.

Chubb is finally showing progress towards a 1000 plus yard season.

Win the rest. My expectations are really simple. At least in our division.

Grading the first quarter of the season is tough because each week has been different.. especially weeks 1 and 4, pretty much polar opposites.

Week 4 is much closer to my expectations obviously... without doing a position group breakdown, the big "expectation" left to meet is to prove they can play like Week 4 on a consistent basis and continue to improve.. if they can, we will make the playoffs.

Ummmmm, right now Chubb is on pace for a 1600 yard season.

Yea, the only way he doesn't get to at least 1200-1300 yards is injury..

His total yards pace right now, based on last year, he would finish 3rd, just a couple dozen yards behind Saquan and Zeke...

2-2 isn't what I was hoping for or expecting after 4 games but we do appear to be getting things together.
I am happy with the way we played against the Ravens. We beat them at their own game which I didn't know if we could match their physicallity. We sure did.
Hopefully Freddie has learned to call plays for Baker instead of Mahomes.
Using Chubb to set our passing game up is very important. It might not be sexy enough for some but winning sure beats losing.
I am very impressed with our defense after 4 games. They are physical and deep.

The next 3 games will tell the tale. If we win 1, we have a good shot at the playoffs. Win 2, maybe homefield.


Lose all and it is tough.

I didn't expect Siebert to be as steady as he's been. I figured to be scared every time we lined up for a kick.

Missed the first PA in week 1 but has been hammering it long and true ever since.

That's probably the biggest surprise.

I expected baker to be better, but the playcalling held him back until week 4, when we (SURPRISE!!!), adjusted some of the play calling.

I was worried when Ward and greedy went down, now I'm not worried about the guys we've had back there. In fact.....
oh never mind.....

This is a FYI, bro.

I know I am the one who brought up the Offensive Scheme angle, but if you click on the link in that first post I had on the subject, you will see that 11 personnel was the most popular package in the entire league last year.

Thus, I don't know if it is fair to blame Freddie/Monken for wanting to run it. The problem is that Baker struggles reading coverages. That is what you get when you draft qbs who don't run Pro offenses in college.....and let's face it, most college teams do not.

I want to be very, very clear about this. I've had posters accuse me of saying that Baker could not read coverages in college. That's not true. I said we don't know if he can read them quickly enough because he wasn't asked to. Just like a ton of other qbs who are entering the NFL.

The bottom line is you just don't know if they can or can't if they are not asked to. In my mind, that makes them a risky pick and it's why I have not endorsed many qbs in the last several years. Again.........I never said they could NOT read coverages. I'm saying......we just don't know.

So, Baker is struggling reading coverages and Freddie is fixing it by running other packages and emphasizing one-read, quick passes. That's smart. It's disappointing to have to resort to that w/your first round qb, but it is what it is.

I'm hoping that Baker spends the off-season breaking down film of qbs who read defenses well and who had success against coverages he struggled with. I'm hoping he tries and predict who will be open by pausing the video after seeing the post-snap coverages. I'm hoping he decides not to get away from football and make a ton of commercials and hit all the media outlets and puts some more time in on becoming a student of the game.

I am not talking about 24/7. I'm saying take 2-3 weeks off to refresh and then put in maybe 2 hours a day for 5 days a week. That's a lot of learning time and it still gives you a ton of time to do other things.

With all that said.............the scariest thing is that processing information has always been known by people in the know as an innate thing. However, I think a ton of film study can help compensate for a deficiency a bit. I will cite Brees as an example. He can read post-snap coverages well. However, he studies so much that he knows the other teams tendencies and knows where to throw the ball because of them. That proves that being a student of the game can be helpful.

We'll see if that occurs w/Baker, because ideally............we really would like to run more 11 personnel, because right now, it's the most popular package in the league.

Note: I wrote that to educate guys like lamp. I have been wanting to write that for quite some time, but have held off because I know certain folks are going to get very personal and I'm sick of that garbage. I will not respond to any of those guys. That does not mean I can't elaborate on my claims. It means I don't want to go down that lane. I just wanted to post the above to help educate those who want to learn a bit more about the game.

Vers, well written. I have no issue with your take, and agree with most of it. The very slight disagreement would be Baker’s ability to read defenses. As a result of his college scheme, he is a bit late in his development, but I think he’ll get caught up fairly rapidly.

I also applaud the staff in seeing where he is and giving him a scheme that covers his weaknesses.

Most of what you just wrote I've read in other posts you've made (that's a compliment).

I remember a post you made last week about 'dumbing down' the reads, give Baker the option of seeing half the field. You, like most of us, believed that we needed to get the ball out early, throw shorter stuff.

I can't blame baker for three WRs running deep patterns from deep in our end.
That's what I meant about Freddie's playcalling.

That's fair. I know that my post probably sounded negative, but I was being honest.

Here is some good news. I think Baker is extremely intelligent. Now, processing speed and intelligence are not truly linked, but I think he is more apt to understand what he is looking at on video than most dudes. I also think he wants to be great. Thus, if he is humbled a bit...which I think would be a good thing....I think he will work his ass off to improve.

I think both of those attributes could be huge for the guy.

Aside from that, there is no doubt he has other positives. Dude has a great arm. It isn't just okay or even good. He has excellent arm strength. It's much better than I thought while watching him in college. He can make every freaking throw in the book.

He is also a naturally accurate thrower. He can pinpoint throws. That's huge! He gets inaccurate when he is confused and if his front foot bails [I still would like to see him hire a qb coach this off-season] but just as a natural thrower, there are very few guys who are more accurate. That is extremely important.

I also love his moxie on the field. Dude is not afraid of the moment. That is also very important.

Yep, yep, and yep.

I think Freddie K will be a big help in that area. He knows what it takes to be a top flight QB, and I think as Baker matures (happens to the best of us!), Freddie’s influence will get him heading in the right direction.

I think it boils down to the next 3 games. If we win 1 of the 3, we should be a playoff bound team. If we can pull off 2 wins in the next 3 games, we could be talking about home field advantage.

No doubt we have to show up every week and beat teams. No doubt we have to remain reasonably healthy.

Since film can now be downloaded to a small drive and go with you anywhere, I'm not sure how you could possibly know that Baker didn't study film two hours a day, five days a week? I mean are you saying that you can't make a thirty second commercial and study film for two hours in the same day?

I'm not trying to argue with you, I just don't think that's a forgone conclusion.

So at the quarter mark we have two receivers on pace for 1,200+ yards each, and a rusher on pace for a 1,600 yard season.

Sounds like hype to me, but it's real. Expectations exceeded. I believe the Win column is going to follow suit.