A secret recording reveals GOP fears that Texas state House could turn blue
Should Democrats flip the lower chamber, they'll play a role in redrawing the state's congressional and legislative maps.
In June, Texas state House Speaker Dennis Bonnen took a meeting with a conservative activist to discuss a possible deal: media credentials for that activist's organization in return for assisting Bonnen in defeating a handful of fellow Republican lawmakers in next year's primary.
A scandal and a lawsuit — brought by Texas Democrats alleging that Bonnen ran afoul of campaign-finance laws — ensued. And while strategists note the episode is unlikely to damage GOP prospects in 2020, especially with President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, a secret recording of the meeting revealed a rattled Republican Party struggling to counter Democratic hopes of turning the state into a battleground.
"The whole meeting's premise was that the different factions of the Republican Party and the conservative movement needed to find a way to band together to defeat Democrats in 2020," Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist and campaign veteran, told NBC News.
"The threat of Texas turning blue had a lot to do with why this meeting happened in the first place," he added.
Changing demographics, an influx of young professionals from outside the state and difficulties for the Trump-led Republican Party in the state's suburbs in 2018 have contributed to Democratic optimism up and down the ballot. Though defeating Trump remains a tall task, the recording, released two days ahead of Trump's planned campaign rally in Dallas, highlights a key fight for control of the legislature's lower chamber ahead of a high-stakes redistricting process that hinges on the results of the 2020 census.
"I just think we've got to get through 2020, guarantee if we try and hold this majority — which, with all due respect to Trump, who I love, by the way — he's killing us in urban-suburban districts," Bonnen said in June, according to the recording made public by the activist, Michael Quinn Sullivan. (Bonnen has denied any wrongdoing and claimed vindication that he did not act untoward in the meeting in light of the tape's release.)
Democrats, who haven't controlled the state House since 2002, already made inroads there in 2018, picking up 12 seats. Kier Murray, a longtime Texas Democratic strategist, told NBC News that Bonnen's meeting with the activist put on display the "discord" that's existed between more conservative Republicans and the "business establishment types" for some time.
"They've largely been able to keep those problems inside the tent over the last few years, but they're not able to do it anymore," Murray said. "And I think it's somewhat reflective of the stress they feel generally about the state and losing their grip on it, that they're starting to fight among themselves."
U.S. Rep. Brian Babin, R-Texas, called hanging on to the majority in the state House in 2020 "extremely important" because of the voting maps.
"I think it'll be a big deal, I really do," Babin added. "I'm old enough to remember when the Democrats held sway in the state of Texas, 100 percent nearly. Of course, as the Republican Party grew, redistricting became a very, very important issue. Now that the Republicans have the majority, and we control the redistricting lines, I think it's all important.
"Each state is going to draw those lines to the benefit of their majority party. I think it's going to be an extremely important issue that is going to be hinging on whether we continue to have the majority in our state government, in the state House."
Murray told NBC News that flipping the state House would give Democrats the ability to put redistricting front and center in the next session.
Remember Ohio is, and will always be a northern state. If Ohio followed the southern ideology, people of color would be persecuted, wealth disparity would run rampant, and no one would care about anthropogenic climate change.
It’s actually easy to do the right thing. You’ve had this coming for decades, I just bring it to light now.
Remember Ohio is, and will always be a northern state. If Ohio followed the southern ideology, people of color would be persecuted, wealth disparity would run rampant, and no one would care about anthropogenic climate change.
It’s actually easy to do the right thing. You’ve had this coming for decades, I just bring it to light now.
So wrong.
Ever since the Democrats went away and Blacks became the first Southern Republicans, Whites and Blacks have gotten along very well in the South.
It is the North that is more racist. On both sides.
This is what happens when you are uneducated when it comes to your own Nations history. You are wrong.
So don't be sending your Ohio boys down here again to run over decent people with their cars!
Because blacks were closed out of elected offices, the South's congressional delegations and state governments were dominated by white Democrats until the 1980s or later. Effectively, Southern white Democrats controlled all the votes of the expanded population by which Congressional apportionment was figured. Many of their representatives achieved powerful positions of seniority in Congress, giving them control of chairmanships of significant Congressional committees. Although the Fourteenth Amendment has a provision to reduce the Congressional representation of states that denied votes to their adult male citizens, this provision was never enforced. Because African Americans could not be voters, they were also prevented from being jurors and serving in local offices. Services and institutions for them in the segregated South were chronically underfunded by state and local governments, from which they were excluded.[27]
During this period, Republicans held only a few House seats from the South. Between 1880 and 1904, Republican presidential candidates in the South received 35–40% of that section's vote (except in 1892, when the 16% for the Populists knocked Republicans down to 25%). From 1904 to 1948, Republicans received more than 30% of the section's votes only in the 1920 (35.2%, carrying Tennessee) and 1928 elections (47.7%, carrying five states) after disenfranchisement.
During this period, Republican administrations appointed blacks to political positions. Republicans regularly supported anti-lynching bills, but these were filibustered by Southern Democrats in the Senate.
Wall Street firm predicts stock market would rally if Trump resigned
A Wall Street investment firm predicts the stock market would rally if President Trump steps down as president.
Raymond James acknowledged Trump's resignation is a "low probability event," CNN Business reported. But the firm said in the "possible" event of the president stepping down it predicted Vice President Mike Pence will help the market stabilize.
"After the initial shock, we think the market rallies as Pence is a predictable, traditional, conservative choice," CNN Business reported the firm wrote in a report published Wednesday evening.
Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins told CNN Business that the company wrote the report because people in Washington keep talking about the possibility. "Independently, different people associated with Trump's orbit brought this idea up unsolicited," Meekins said.
The investment firm asserted that drug makers, defense contractors and other businesses associated with China would excel if Trump resigned, if the country believes it will impede on the chances a Democrat will win the White House or the GOP will maintain control of the Senate, CNN Business reported.
"The markets can live happily with Pence, on trade in particular," Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, told CNN Business. "Pence would get along far better with the Chamber of Commerce and the free trade advocates. He'd shy away from tariffs."
If Trump were to step down, Pence would become president, and the analysts predict former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley would join Pence on the ballot in 2020 as a vice presidential candidate, according to The Detroit News.
"Trump has become so erratic and unpredictable that it's annoying for the markets," CNN Business said Valliere added. "Pence is a boring, conservative, pro-business Midwesterner."
CNN Business noted it cannot be known in advance how impeachment would affect the stock market, but the market would primarily be affected by the economy's and corporate profit's growth.
The president has argued that his impeachment would cause the stock market to "crash."
"Do you think it was luck that got us to the best Stock Market and Economy in our history. It wasn't," Trump tweeted in September.
Marquette Poll: Majority Believe Supreme Court Justices Motivated By Law, Not Politics
Nearly two-thirds of respondents to a new poll say U.S. Supreme Court justices base their decisions on the law rather than politics.
The survey also found that 71 percent of respondents favor fixed terms for justices. Even when broken down by political leanings, fixed terms were favored among Republicans, Democrats and Independents. But 56 percent of respondents oppose increasing the number of justices on the court. Both ideas have been offered as ways to address increasing polarization over the court's makeup.
A majority of respondents said they strongly favored Supreme Court decisions that allowed same-sex marriage and affirmed the right for individuals to own guns.
The survey also found that 71 percent of respondents favor fixed terms for justices.
This be me. Lifetime appointments are too long, imo. That convention was established when 60 was considered ancient. I dunno... 20-year terms sound about right?
The Constitution states that Justices "shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour." This means that the Justices hold office as long as they choose and can only be removed from office by impeachment.
Don't play games with me. You know what I'm saying.
In fact, it would take a constitutional amendment for it to happen. But we've already amended our constitution 27 times.
See how I did that? Now there can be no misunderstanding because there is no ambiguity for you to play around with.
I'm not disagreeing with you at all... but you really see our government actually doing something as big as passing an amendment? I don't. They're the most ineffective, impotent body.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
I filled it out honestly. Which is to say I believe none of this is a witch hunt.... This morning I got an email thanking me for ‘joining team trump’. I sent an email back stating I hope trump rots in prison. Wonder if I’ll get another response?
I really wonder what will it take for the GOP to abandon trump?
Honestly I would like to know. Given everything that has transpired since he decided to run.
Trump University closed. Fraud.
"All of the best people"? Who now are gone. What was said before they took their offices and then how they were attacked when they left. Then the ones like Flint, Manafort, Cohen and the other doing time.
Access Hollywood. Paying off porn stars.
What came out in the Mueller? If it was read? Ukraine. Holding back appropriated money to an ally in order to get political dirt on a political opponent? Abandoning the Kurds who fought for us trying to rid the mid east from Isis.
I just want an honest answer. What would trump have to do in order for the GOP to say enough?
I really wonder what will it take for the GOP to abandon trump?
If he starts appointing left-leaning judges, that would do it. Until that happens, they'll tolerate and defend anything and everything to hang onto their useful tool.
You kind of believe that 25% no matter what would follow. Even if were proven he was traitor.
The Independents like myself or those who just could not vote for Clinton; those are the ones I am hopeful about. Especially in swing states.
The 25% there is no hope for them. The are polluted from the polluted sources they seek. One would think that if you call yourself a patriot first the obvious is front and center.
It saddens me that the country has become what it now looks like. But when 18% of Americans adults still believe humans have always existed in their current form.
"All of the best people"? Who now are gone. What was said before they took their offices and then how they were attacked when they left. Then the ones like Flint, Manafort, Cohen and the other doing time. And how many "acting" heads of departments and organizations are there? All of them Trump sycophants.
Access Hollywood. Paying off porn stars.
What came out in the Mueller? If it was read? Ukraine. Holding back appropriated money to an ally in order to get political dirt on a political opponent? Abandoning the Kurds who fought for us trying to rid the mid east from Isis. Calling the free press the Enemy of the People
Any one single item from the above list would have given the OLD Republican Party an aneurysm if it had been a Clinton or Obama ... And rightly so. smh.
Last edited by mgh888; 10/23/1903:17 PM.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
just here to remind the board that Trump's tweets are, according to the WH itself, official presidential statements.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
I really wonder what will it take for the GOP to abandon trump?
If he starts appointing left-leaning judges, that would do it. Until that happens, they'll tolerate and defend anything and everything to hang onto their useful tool.
If h was as crooked as you guys say he would be a Democrat That would probably do it.
you can't believe you voted for someone who has honor and integrity that matches your political leanings?
what a very odd statement you just made.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
NEW YORK (AP) — Three judges on a federal appeals panel appeared inclined Wednesday to reject arguments that President Donald Trump's tax returns can't be given to a New York grand jury because he is immune from state criminal law — even if he were to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue.
Chief Judge Robert A. Katzmann of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals told lawyers at the conclusion of nearly an hour of arguments that the panel believed the attorneys "may be seeing each other again in Washington."
The U.S. Supreme Court will likely have the last word on whether Trump can shield himself from Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr.'s efforts to explore the president's financial records since 2011, including his tax returns.
The hearing's most colorful exchange came when Judge Denny Chin confronted Trump attorney William S. Consovoy over what local authorities could do if Trump shot somebody on Fifth Avenue, a reference to a boast Trump made in January 2016 that doing so wouldn't cost him voters.
"Local authorities couldn't investigate. They couldn't do anything about it?" Chin asked.
Consovoy said that it was not a permanent immunity and that local authorities could act once a president was removed from office.
"Well, I'm talking about while in office," Chin said. "Nothing could be done? That's your position?"
Consovoy answered: "That is correct. That is correct. Yes."
Chin foreshadowed his shooting comparison when he asked whether the president was beyond the reach of investigators "no matter how heinous" the crime.
The judge also asked Consovoy whether he believed the state was seeking Trump's financial records and tax returns "just to embarrass the president? Is that the argument?"
"Yes," Consovoy responded.
Vance, a Democrat, is conducting a wide-ranging probe that includes payments made to buy the silence of two women who claim affairs with the president before the 2016 presidential election.
The payments were made to porn star Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal, a onetime Playboy centerfold. Both have spoken publicly about affairs they say they had with the president before the 2016 presidential election.
Trump appealed after a lower-court judge tossed out his challenge to Vance's subpoena of his financial records from his longtime accountant.
Trump's lawyers say the Constitution prohibits states from subjecting the U.S. president to criminal process while he's in office.
Vance's attorney, Carey R. Dunne, told the 2nd Circuit that no one is above the law and that the president does not enjoy the blanket immunity he claims.
The criminal probe, he said, is "hamstrung significantly" by Trump's claims of presidential immunity from a subpoena for tax returns.
"They're making this up, your honor," Dunne said of the legal argument.
Both sides have agreed that no tax records will be demanded until court appeals are finished.
In court papers, Vance has said he's seeking financial and tax records of entities and individuals, including Trump, who engaged in business transactions in Manhattan.
Trump's lawyers wrote in court papers that the request is unusual and requires more specific information.
All three judges on Wednesday's appeals panel were appointed by Democratic presidents.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
Would any of you want to make a small bet on 2020?
Sure! I'll offer you the same bet I gave to 40 during the 2016 election. He didn't feel confident in Trump then, and I sure bet he and other regret him not taking it!
Trump wins and I never post here again. Trump loses and you never post here again.
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