https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2019/11...ilm-review.htmlThe Browns on 3rd and 4th down: How they’re tipping off opponents and why OBJ isn’t getting the ball more -- Film Review
Today 4:58 AM
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos, November 3, 2019
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Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens walks off the field after their loss to the Denver Broncos, October 30, 2019, at Empower Field at Mile High. (John Kuntz, cleveland.com)
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By Ellis L. Williams, cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- On consecutive third-quarter red zone plays against Denver on Sunday, the Browns ran the ball, needing only three yards for first and goal. The first carry to running back Dontrell Hilliard on a third-down shotgun run totaled two yards. With a yard to go, Baker Mayfield lined up under center with Hilliard set behind him, signaling a quarterback sneak.
The issue isn’t Hilliard getting the ball on third down (a play we’ll discuss later). It actually was a great call, just to a player not yet capable of converting such a pivotal down. The real folly arrives on the fourth-down play and ultimately the personnel dressed around it, which doomed Mayfield’s sneak before the snap. Kitchens tips his hand on fourth down when Nick Chubb does not reenter the game.
CBS’s announcing team knew Mayfield was keeping it and clearly Denver did, too. While there are plenty of reasons to question coach Freddie Kitchens’ playcalling, he would never give Hilliard back-to-back red zone carries as Chubb stood idle on the sidelines.
Yet that is exactly where Chubb was as Mayfield did the expected, keeping the ball and coming up short on a call confirmed by replay.
Third- and fourth-down sequences like that cost Cleveland its sixth loss and dashed any realistic playoff hopes while casting more doubt on a team that promised so much. Third and fourth downs weren’t only a problem on Sunday. The Browns rank 29th in third-down conversion (30.6 percent) and 29th on fourth-down (27.7 percent).
But let’s focus solely on Denver. Of 17 gotta-have-it plays (15 third downs and two fourth downs), only Odell Beckham Jr. and Chubb earned multiple first downs. Four players (Antonio Callaway, Ricky Seals-Jones, Mayfield and Hilliard) did not convert their chances while Jarvis Landry earned one first down on four targets.
The ball isn’t going where it should when Cleveland needs a first down. Or perhaps more accurately, Kitchens tipped his hand too often, while Beckham and Chubb were underutilized. Let’s take a look at third-down and fourth-day plays from Sunday to identify why the Browns were predictable, where the ball went and what needs to change.
Broncos deny Landry
Targeting Landry as much as Mayfield did on Sunday became problematic once Denver established that they were not going to let him win across the middle. On Cleveland’s first drive, the Broncos sat on Landry’s crossing routes, setting the tone. On this second-down play, Mayfield locks on and waits for Landry, without ever seeing Broncos linebacker Mailk Reed.
It’s no coincidence Landry’s fourth-quarter score came on a throw to the outside. Mayfield was 1-for-5 targeting Landry across the middle, but 5-for-5 throwing to him outside the hashes.
When Mayfield looks across the middle, it’s often for Landry. But this is well known by every opponent, resulting in double teams, especially on third downs. Mayfield often locks on Landry, and doesn’t look elsewhere.
Denver decided to take Landry away, and how Kitchens wasn’t aware of this prior to Mayfield’s fourth-down throw on the final drive is inexcusable. If he was, then Mayfield should’ve been told to look elsewhere.
Now for the Hilliard issue, which is more of a third-down back problem. The key issue is Hilliard isn’t getting the job done on third down. He dropped and caused the game-ending interception against Seattle and versus Denver, couldn’t pick up a critical red zone first down despite facing a soft six-man box.
Here, Hilliard completely misses his hole. Rather than taking what is available, he bumps tackle Chris Hubbard before colliding with guard Wyatt Teller, crushing his momentum. Kareem Hunt is expected to return on Sunday against Buffalo. He won’t solve all of the Browns’ issues but situationally, he’s greatly needed.
Prior to Hilliard’s run above, his number was called on a similar third-and-short early in the second quarter. Seeing a two-high safety set -- as he did on Hilliard’s fourth-quarter stuff -- Mayfield reads his read/pass option wrong, which blows Hilliard up by a blitzing Duke Dawson (20).
On the failed fourth-quarter red zone run by Hilliard, Kitchens called the same play but the other way and without a run-pass option. Again, there is no issue with the call. The box is light and Hilliard needs to find a way to get the extra yard. It’s the decision not to put Chubb in on the following play that is a killer.
With Chubb out and Mayfield under center, anyone watching (including Denver’s coaches) knew a sneak was coming. Sometimes in football, that is okay -- stopping sneaks can be difficult. But Cleveland hasn’t earned the privilege to operate with such certainty.
Cleveland needs to utilize every act of deception available to maximize its short-yardage plays. That would have been the case if Chubb had been in the game.
Where the ball is going
Understand this: The best teams avoid third downs altogether.
When a coach says “We need to get to third-and-manageable,” that is dated thinking. By being more aggressive (and effective) on first and second down, third-down efficiency matters less. The Patriots -- and the Eagles and Rams as well -- figured this out years ago.
Winning football avoids “third-and-manageable” and instead chases “third-and-never.” However, since the Browns are not an efficient offense, Kitchens and company face third downs often (15 on Sunday, compared to nine for Denver).
To no one’s surprise, Beckham and Chubb were the best on third down on Sunday, each converting two of their three chances. Beckham caught one first down and generated a defensive pass interference on another. Chubb converted two third-down runs, both in the second half.
Cleveland was 3-for-9 on third down in the first half, with zero Chubb touches. A second-half adjustment generated three Chubb third-down carries; but such predictable personnel groups shouldn’t take an entire half of a must-win Week 9 game to change.
Beckham didn’t get enough targets on must-have downs because Mayfield felt more comfortable throwing across the middle and toward one-on-one matchups. Beckham plays mostly on the perimeter, running routes outside the numbers with a safety nearby. Since Kitchens won’t scheme Beckham open, it’s on Mayfield to force-feed him.
Fixing third and fourth downs
It’s extremely unlikely, but Kitchens should try starting Kareem Hunt and play Nick Chubb as the third-down back just to confuse teams. That would challenge opposing coaches to consider adjustments to “the book” on Kitchens’ third-down personnel and play-calling tendencies.
Fixing third down beyond being more creative/deceptive with personnel means correcting Mayfield. He missed open guys on Sunday, throwing into double coverage and locking onto receivers.
On the Browns’ final offensive play, watch Mayfield’s eyes. Rather than working deep to short, he looks at his running back, peeks at Broncos cornerback Coty Sensabaugh before identifying Landry open.
But this is the NFL and seeing a guy open before throwing it usually means it’s too late. Mayfield throwing to Landry on a shallow cross -- at least on Sunday -- carried a success rate lower than Charles Barkley’s career 3-point shooting percentage (.266). It shouldn’t have been considered with the game on the line.
Assuming the Browns will get more explosive on first or second down feels foolish. So the next-best option is obvious but perhaps more productive: throw it to Beckham.
Two of his five catches were explosive plays. His first converted a third down and he drew a fourth-quarter pass interference. Mayfield isn’t looking at Beckham enough when he is open. At the same time, he often decides to throw to him even when he’s blanketed, which is fine because he’s OBJ -- but it illustrates Mayfield’s premeditated decisions. On this play, which set up Landry’s score five plays later, cornerback Chris Harris (25) jumps the route but Beckham still wins.
This is a testament to Beckham’s ball skills, game-breaking tendencies and ability to be matchup-proof.
In the week leading up to Denver, Kitchens and Mayfield vowed to clean up presnap penalties and turnovers, which both happened. Perplexingly, the Browns reverted to an old vice. Red zone struggles and third-down woes should be corrected by now.
Adding Hunt will make Cleveland more versatile and should stop baiting Kitchens into tipping his hand. As for Mayfield developing eyes for Beckham, that remains to be seen. But if Kitchens doesn’t start making in-game adjustments that Mayfield can apply, third and fourth down execution won’t improve.
you know if these writers are catching on. . . . everyone in the NFL caught on 4 weeks ago.
