DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum End of the Season Rookie QB Stats/Comparisons

Very good analysis Niolen... nailed it in my humble opinion.

Great post. What do you think replacing Murray with Rosen?

I don't think the Cardinal OL is going to get good enough to protect Rosen. Rosen struggles to escape pressure and he struggles against pressure.

I think it would be a very interesting to see what a dual threat QB like Murray could do with the same personnel.

Murray allows the Cardinals to run a spread-zone-read-RPO offense and a dual threat QB in that type of offense does a lot to mitigate the suckitude of their OL.

Also, Murray's is vastly better then Rosen when it comes to the ability to escape and evade pressure.

This is the game of the week right here. Last year, it took a a 4th down prayer to beat the ravens. Lamar had a hell of a game.

Now, a much a much improved Lamar Jackson vs an improved MVP going head to head again. Hopefully it’s another epic game. Them two have been balling so far.

And let’s not forget about josh allen. 2-0 and looking way more comfortable than he did last year.

I was completely put off by josh allen last season but if he keeps this up, boy oh boy.

Good article discusses 2018 draft class:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001...aliber-triplets

I remember reading about Case Keenum and VRT. If Baker is having the issues everyone says, why doesn't someone, a coach, turn him loose with VRT and help him out? I mean if reading defenses is one of his biggest issues as so many claim, wouldn't he want to work on that? Just saying/asking...

Baker “I’m feeling dangerous” mayfield leads everybody in picks, not just his draft class.

Sam “I’m seeing ghost” Darnold is having a rough start

Rosen can’t even see the field, because he might just suck.

Which means the top 2 QBs in the draft class right now are josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

I can’t even hate on Allen because while his numbers certainly aren’t great, he plays a Cam like game and hey, his team is 5-1.

You and Swish can pat yourselves on the back. He looks to be the best qb in that class. Congrats. Glad you showed up to point that out.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001...aliber-triplets

Baker Mayfield, No. 1 overall pick, Cleveland Browns: I obviously discussed Mayfield at length above, but basically, the bodacious QB1 is in the midst of a sophomore slump that has resulted in his completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating all dropping from his rookie year. Mayfield's woes can partially be attributed to the Browns' leaky offensive line and their play-caller struggling to find his way. With 19 interceptions on his resume in 17 appearances, Mayfield's turnover woes are problematic for a Browns team that was expected to compete in the AFC. Grade: B-

Sam Darnold, No. 3 overall pick, New York Jets: After seeing Darnold show promise at the end of his rookie season, the football world was waiting with bated breath to see if he would emerge as a Pro Bowl-caliber player under new coach Adam Gase. The respected quarterback guru has helped young signal-callers find their way in the past, and Jets officials were optimistic that No. 14 would enjoy a breakout season. Unfortunately, mononucleosis put Darnold on the shelf following the season opener, which wasn't a bad effort against Buffalo (completed 28 of 41 passes for 175 yards with a score). And his absence kinda blows up the grading process. Grade: INC

Josh Allen, No. 7 overall pick, Buffalo Bills: It's not always pretty with No. 17, but it has worked for the Bills to this point. The second-year pro has guided his team to a 3-0 start utilizing his exceptional athleticism, running skills and big arm to create explosive plays. While Allen's turnover issues and inconsistent accuracy have put the team behind the eight ball at times, he has made enough plays to help the offense score enough points to complement a defense that's playing at a high level. Allen is the NFL's second-leading rusher at quarterback and he continues to befuddle defenses with his improvisational style. Grade: B-

Josh Rosen, No. 10 overall pick, Arizona Cardinals (now with the Miami Dolphins): It's just unfair to grade Rosen against his classmates when he has repeatedly been on the short end of the stick. After suffering significantly as a rookie from a lackluster offensive line, No. 3 was unceremoniously traded to Miami when new Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury opted for an athletic playmaker to run his system in the desert. The Dolphins didn't do Rosen any favors when they auctioned off the team's blue-chip players for draft picks, throwing him into a suspect starting lineup (especially on the O-line) to audition for the QB1 job in 2020 and beyond. Reviewing the tape, Rosen has shown courage and toughness while taking a beating in the pocket, but he hasn't received a legitimate opportunity to showcase his passing skills due to underwhelming cast around him. Rosen has seen several quality balls slip through his receivers' hands. Grade: INC

Lamar Jackson, No. 32 overall pick, Baltimore Ravens: No. 8 has shown tremendous improvement as a passer/playmaker from the pocket. He has been consistently on time and on target with his throws to the perimeter, as evidenced by his 63 percent completion rate and 7:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Jackson has remained a frightening threat as a runner (NFL-best 192 rushing yards for QB), while significantly cutting down his rushing attempts in Baltimore's ground-and-pound, option-based offense. As a passer, Jackson has shown improved accuracy, touch and ball placement on intermediate throws between the numbers and on deep shots down the boundary. He's been better than expected as a passer in Year 2, which is one of the reasons why the Ravens (2-1) are emerging as a dark-horse contender in the AFC. Grade: A-

I've been around here and there.

And this thread does keep track of the QBs from that draft and we all spent a lot of time talking/arguing/discussing those QBs.
I personally took a lot of abuse and vitriol during the QB discussions. So yeah, I like to keep track of how it all pans out.

But, it was big of you to admit the above even if it seemed sarcastic....I doubt we'll see eotab and some of the others.

I wasn't being sarcastic. On the other hand, you haven't posted on here much in the last year or so. I wasn't high on Lamar before the draft, but I have defended him on here. Also, I would like to add that it's early.

Baker and Lamar have been put in great situations. Darnold, Rosen, and Allen have not.

And he’s not taking big hits. Him and kyler just know how to get low and position themselves to take low impact hits. Their agility is unreal.

And man Lamar has such a great coaching staff. Harbaugh making the OC swap is doing wonders.

Wish we had competent coaches.

Baker was picked by a team that had won ONE game the two years before he got there...with Hue Jackson at the helm. Great situation? LMAO.

He’s talking about the GM and the talent out around him.

We aren’t just talking year 1 anymore. Now we’re looking at both seasons. And what he said was true, although I have to say I think I’d put allen over baker as far as good situations go, as Allen has a better HC.

I also think we’d be having different conversations if we kept the same offense from last year. Then we SHOULDVE been talking about which QB is having the better season: baker or Lamar.

This year there is a lot of good around Baker - and the team *should* be better than it is based on talent. However we do have a new skill player in OBJ who didn't play much preseason and we have new HC who is struggling. And while the terminology of the O is being kept - this is a new offense, and the play calling is questionable. . . . Sophomore Slump is a common term/label and Baker definitely seems to be experiencing one. Let's let Baker work through the his own and the teams current issues and see how he comes out the other side.

Lamar has surpassed my expectations - his electric running was never in doubt, but playing a complete game and finding ways to win through the air and ground are impressive. That said, regardless of his ability to avoid most contact - he's going to get hit and nicked up, the league is too physical and the players too fast for that not to happen with how he plays.

You contradicted yourself here.

Baker is on his third head coach and at least second offense.

I hardly say that's a good situation.

I agree completely with that.

My rebuttal to that, however, is that as long as Lamar takes those steps needed to be a better passer, he’s not gonna run as much.

Just look at how he plays in the pocket. First, he’s been making plays in the pocket, but when it breaks down, he’s still looking throw when he scrambles unless there’s just nothing but grass in front of him ( I understand the threshold of what’s considered “open grass” is different with him compared to other QBs).

And more importantly, he actually listens. Dude heard all the criticism about him last year, and what did he do?

Tried to put on weight and focus on developing as a better passer. And he’s got RG3 and his mentor Vick constantly in his ear so that he doesn’t make the same mistakes as they did.

So we will see.

I don’t think I contradicted myself at all.

When Dorsey brought in baker, he got a team with a decent O line, Chubb, Landry, and other pieces. Dorsey has already overhauled the roster. And the coaching was more stable with Williams at the helm.

And even with kitchens, baker got another massive weapon in OBJ.

So yea, at least at the beginning, baker was in a much better situation than josh Allen and Rosen.

J/C

To compare Baker and Lamar is disengenious at this point, and will be at any other point. They are TWO completely different types of players for 1. It is hard to compare Lamar to anyone, because hes just a different cat. I mean, you can compare him to other scrambling Qbs MAYBE, and the most obvious would be Vick, but Lamar is only in his second year. He could get better as a thrower and in the pocket, or he could not regress. We will have to see. Vick was a runner first his whole career. I think Lamar has a chance to become a throw first guy, but we will have to see. But to compare him Baker - just really apples and oranges simply for the type of styles they have.

Then, if you throw them into the situations they were drafted in - One was picked overall for a reason, and one was picked 30th for a reason. Those reasons, are because one team was a dumpster fire, and the other a perennial division champ. Even in down years, they are .500 team. we haven't been .500 or above in over decade.

You can say Baker was put into a better scenario or sitation, but that's just not true. I don't care the weapons he has on offense. As we are seeing, TALENT doesn't mean jack, if the talent don't know where to line up, commits penalties and turnovers, and has no chemistry. OBJ is so talented, then why is he dropping balls in his basket left and right? Why is he a non factor each week? It all because of baker.

Baker has had Three HC, and three offenses in 2 years. I don't care the talent you have on the roster, that's not a recipe for success. And if you think it was, you were drunk.

You cannot compare any player on this Browns team to anyone else, because are plain and simple - year in year out, a mess. There is a black cloud on this franchise, and nothing will or can break it. I am convinced that no matter what, we will have our players kicking out the ball from our RB, or having our Pro Bowl LG let a lineman through to intercept a pitch to the WR. Its just going to happen and will never stop.

I disagree.

QBs in the same draft class get compared all the time. People still compare that 04 draft class of Manning, rivers, and Big Ben.

Nobody is comparing actual style of play.

I am not saying they don't, I am saying its dumb to do so.

Manning, rivers and Ben are closer to playing style with each other than Lamar is to anyone else in the league currently. There's not a QB like him right now to compare him too.

I am not taking a shot at him, in fact, that's a compliment. He is a unique and gifted player. I think if he continues to show the growth he has in the pocket, and still improve in that area, he can write his own ticket.

I just don't see how its fair to compare two different vastly different types of QBs, who were drafted into 2 complete different scenarios (one an established NFL team with a productive and stable Front Office, and the other the biggest laughingstock and joke the NFL has ever seen).

Baker is most talented QB we have ever had since 99, and he is a mess right now, and that's mainly in part because well....the Browns. I can honestly see the writing on the wall, it is JUST SO BROWNS. Rookie record TD holder to bust in a year time frame. Why wouldn't that be our story here? lol.

Heck, now that I am talking about it, I don't think its fair to compare ANY Browns Qb to ANY other Qb, simply because.....well the Browns.

But again, to compare him to Baker is not really

Swish, lamar isn't a good passer. Not yet anyway.

Pretty sure I didn’t claim he was.

Jackson can make the wide open plays when they are there to be made. He is not a guy who can make really accurate passes in tight windows, or throw receivers open.

He is quite possibly the best runner from the QB position I have ever seen. I don't think I have seen many times where he allows a defender to line up and put a good hit on him when he is running. He is a below average passer, but their offense almost requires teams to look run 1st .... and that allows him some wide open looks. He throws to the TEs and RBs a lot. (87 of his 136 completions have gone to these 2 position groups) The Ravens have crafted an offense that is taking advantage of his strengths, and he is performing. He is doing better than I ever thought he would.

I don't think you are being fair. He is not a conventional QB, but he is a good passer, specially because he does not require a stable platform to throw.

He is also quite accurate in the long ball, which is what you want from a QB that can buy time with their feet.

For sure he is not a WCO type of QB, but that does not make him a bad passer, specially because he does not require a high completion % to be effective. He is an explosive passer, like Deshaun, receivers are open because he buys them time, so he does not have to pass int tight windows all the time.

It’s his revenge for RG3 ... *L* ...

Lamar still has a long butt way to go ... hes way more accurate than he was and that i ever thought he’d be ... but he ain’t there yet ...

Way to early to be patting yourself on the back for that ... it was a class move by Ed though ...

See this is where it gets dicey. Because I'm not trying to rile things up nor 'go at' anybody. I just want to have an actual discussion and bring some advanced stats to the table and some film when I can. I know previously these discussion have gone off the rails, which was never my intention but it happened often anyway. I just wanted to put that caveat out there. And also, I've never hid the fact that I wasn't a Brown's fan but I tried to be a respectful poster because I like this forum and its members. Enough caveat and preamble....

People often go off general impressions, which is fine, but general impression aren't always correct.

And I think the issue I was having was the sheer dismal of all the stats and evidence that contradicted narrative around Lamar and imho this post is a prime example.

You say Lamar can't hit tight windows? So I'm show one of the best throws into tight coverage that I've watched all season:


And you tell me if that is a counter example to your general impression or not.

I love football now more then ever because there more public advanced stats/analytics now then ever before. You say Lamar is making 'wide open' throws when they are there. But the data and film (which I don't fault nor expect you to watch a bunch of Ravens games) tell a different story:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness



Lamar Jackson is at 14.7% ahead of:

Derek Carr
Kyler Murray
Teddy Bridgewater
Jared Goff
Josh Allen
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Jimmy Garoppolo
Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan
Patrick Mahomes
Kirk Cousins
Drew Brees

I gotta run, i'll finish this thought when I get the chance. I hope at least people will remember that when I posted about Lamar I wasn't just giving opinion and saying oh he's so great. I hope people remember that I brought information, research and film that went against the media narrative around Lamar especially in comparison to Rosen and Darnold. And I don't mean this to toot my horn, but I hope that people will take my posts as layman who took time and effort to learn as much as I could about evaluation and posted real information....even going back to Trubisky vs Watson.

I put my QB evaluations out there for all to see. I was wrong about some...I liked Connor Cook and was wrong (although off the field and undisclosed arm injury are mitigating factors imho)...I like Paxton Lynch and was dead wrong....but I was right about others.

If this was truly me patting myself on the back it would be much louder. Swish has been keeping a the comparison stat thread since last year. Its just an update and continuation. I don't recall you expressing the idea it was to early to pat yourself on the back about Baker last year. Why is continuing an ongoing discussion patting on the back now?

Saying he is a below passer simply ain't true. He's never been a below average passer his college stats bare this out.

True, Lamar does throw to his TEs a lot....he's not blessed with a WRs corps anywhere near as close to the Browns. Their top 2 WRs are a rookie who's been hurt most of the year and another 3rd year rookie WR their best veteran WR is a castoff. Jackson doesn't really throw to RBs that much but throwing to his TEs is a function of personnel not because of a lack of ability. You can look at his passing stats and clearly see the ability is there

Fair enough, i'll take you at your word and retract that your post was sarcastic.

I post every now and again, most of them pass on without reply and I watch fewer Browns game and have much less to say.

I agree that Darnold, Rosen and Allen weren't thrown into great situations. But, Allen is helping his team by using his legs...I'm still waiting for the Bills to get really smart and use Allen more in their run game....like a Cam Newton light. Rosen and Darnold weren't put in great situations but Darnold started playing well down the stretch last year but they brought in a QB whisper and he has regressed. Rosen again, for me, is limited by his lack of ability to evade pressure. He can throw it with the best of them when he's protected and has talent around him. And his inability to avoid pressure showed in his pressure numbers...he was pressured a lot and was terrible against pressure.

He threw for 163 yards against the Pats. That is sub-par, by far. Now I am not saying that he didn't carry out their game plan extremely well ..... because he did ..... but the team threw for 163 yards and ran for 201. They also had a defensive TD, which helped their cause. He did well against the Pats defense, who had stopped every other QB this season.

If the Ravens can execute their offense, and run the ball a lot, then Jackson can be a capable QB. If their run game gets stopped, then I do not believe that he can beat a quality team with his arm alone.

I don’t follow your logic here? Quality of play isn’t determined by volume. Saying Lamar had a sub par game...by far? That sounds like empty rhetoric that even contradicts your own statement here:


Thats a reasonable belief because, again, (1) the Ravens WRs group is the weakest area of the team (2) their interior OL is the second weakest area of the team; therefore executing an offense solely reliant on drop back passing is going to be a struggle for any QB in that situation. And on the whole beating ANY team solely with the passing doesn’t happen often regardless of the QB.
So you are creating a weird standard or judging by a criteria that most QBs don’t meet even your own and that’s despite have good enough WRs.

With all that being said IF the Ravens/Lamar had to play rely on just the passing game you would probably get the volume passing yardage numbers that you apparently think make a QB good but Lamar’s efficiency would be way down. His production would be a cross between Lamar’s Louisville year’s + Vick in ATL + Matt Staffords/Brett Favre’s early years just running around sliming it. Would interesting to see.

But to hold your opinion despite all Lamar’s production seems defensive.

He’s only 22. And yet his arm alone has better numbers that baker, Darnold, and Allen, who were suppose to be good passers, remember?

Allen is more like Cam, but Rosen had such a better arm than Lamar that....he can’t see the field. Baker has such a better arm than Lamar that...he has 7 TDs to 12 picks. Darnold....Lol.

Look what the pats did to Darnold. Wasn’t he suppose to be a way better passer than Lamar?

Running the ball, executing game plan. You’re acting like that ain’t the game plan for most QBs in this league, especially younger ones. Like somehow that only applies to Lamar.

At some point you’re gonna have to admit you were wrong.

Edit: oh yea, go look at their completion percentage. If Lamar’s passing is subpar, then what does that make the other 4 first rounders in his draft class?

They said the same thing about Deshaun, what people fail to realize is that mobile QB's need good arms and elite arm talent to be successful.

My only knock on Lamar was his maturity but for sure he has proven me wrong, the Kid is a natural, its a joy to watch him play.

Those are some ridiculous numbers.

Yardage for the last 4 games is lower than I would've expected. 0 INTs is incredible, though.