DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2020 NFL Season 2020 NFL Draft Trading down

I have been thinking about the trade downs that Sashi Brown made when he was in charge of the team a lot with regards to how they benefited the team (or not).

In 2016 we started off with the #2 pick, we traded that pick for picks 8, 77, 100, the Eagles 1st round pick in 2017, and their 2nd round pick in 2018. We then traded 8 and 176 (or own pick) to the Titans for picks 15, 76, and their 2017 second round pick. We also traded pick 77 (which we acquired from the Eagles) and 141 (our own pick) for picks 93, 129, and 168. We also traded pick 100 (acquired from the Eagles) for picks 114 and 154 (from the Raiders). So we started with pick #2 and ended up with picks 15, 93, 129, 114, 154, and 168 (along the Eagles 1st in 2017, the Eagles 2nd in 2018, and the Titans 2nd in 2017).

In 2017 we had the Eagles first round pick which turned out to be pick 12. We traded pick 12 to the Texans for pick 25 and their 2018 first round pick.

Here are all our selections made with the picks just from the trade downs:

15 Corey Coleman
93 Cody Kessler
129 Derrick Kindred
114 Ricardo Louis
154 Jordan Payton
168 Spencer Drango

25 Jabrill Peppers
52 DeShone Kizer

4 Denzel Ward




Not great. So we could have had just (A) Carson Wentz. Or we could have had (B) DeShaun Watson along with Corey Coleman, Cody Kessler, Derrick Kindred, Ricardo Louis, Jordan Payton, and Spencer Drango. Or we could have (C) what we have now (Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward, OBJ (who we got for Jabrill Peppers) etc.). Which choice would prefer, A, B, or C? Knowing the players skews the results.



My greater point is this, if we were even league average at picking players under Sashi Brown (we were well below average) then these trade downs would be considered a massive success. One could probably argue they are even a massive success from where we sit right now. More picks is better than less picks.

As far as the 2020 draft goes, I would trade down and get more picks to build cheaply for the future if my preferred player wasn't available. Trading down is a sound strategy. It is a huge market inefficiency especially if you pick the correct players.

I think the only real problem I see with your above scenario is the use of the phrase "my preferred player". I don't believe a draft board is made up that way. I'm no expert at building a draft board, but what I can say is you have players ranked on your board. You have a list of players you feel are worthy of the #10 pick. If a player you have ranked at #7 falls to #10, that player is worthy of that pick.

By contrast, if you get to the #10 pick and have several players ranked very closely out of the players left on the board, you can trade down and get a player you have rated almost exactly the same a few picks down.

Draft picks are the best way to build cheaply. As has been shown many times, the odds of hitting on picks later in the draft are much less than earlier picks. The odds of hitting on impact players goes down drastically the further down you pick.

Sometimes more isn't actually more when you end up with less.

I think trading down is a good strategy at times. I certainly prefer to trading up.

With that said, I think the Browns have a window to win and that window is now. I truthfully think this team could win big this year. The main factor is how Baker plays. If he sucks again, the Browns won't do well. But, if he improves, this team can be very, very good.

We have some very good players on rookie contracts. We have outstanding talent in other guys like OBJ, Landry, Bitonio, Schobert[hopefully,] Tretter, Richardson, Hunt, etc.

I think the push should be to try and win now. I seriously doubt that Haslam will be patient enough to bypass winning and building for the future again.

I think when Wentz, Watson, Mahomes are on the board and you THINK they have a shot, it’s worth it to just draft them as opposed to trading down.

Of course, we didn’t know they’d be THIS good. But it’s demoralizing to see us trade back for crap and see Watson take off

The problem with this thinking is that people assume players would have been as good here as they ended up being where they were drafted.

Situation is often as big a determining factor as talent. If we'd drafted Michael Thomas instead of Coleman most people would probably think they'd have liked the Wentz trade more. But, we don't know that Michael Thomas would have had the same success with Kessler and Hue that he had in NO with Payton and Brees.

If we'd drafted Wentz he could have been an injury prone failure throwing to Kenny Britt and....Pryor?

Hopefully we do better evaluating and provide a better situation going forward. The two tie together, and I think we overemphasize the former.

I think that sounds like a fine rationalization for not drafting talent.

I've been watching the draft coverage and there is some talk about Tua at #2. Pretty much everyone agrees that you always take the qb if you think he can be the guy. It was a huge fail when we didn't get a qb when we had a chance. With that said, I haven't given up on Baker yet.

Okay, so you believe that the picks acquired from trade downs was below average (agreed), but you would be okay if this current staff was to do the same. (and I understand, and even agree with this philosophy),

But I am not okay with this current GM and FO, till which time (if ever) they prove capable of pulling it off.

An illustration of such a possible scenario.

1--Bengals
QB Joe Burrow

2--Dolphins
(From the Redskins)
QB Tua Tagovailoa

3--Lions
DE Chase Young

4--Giants
OT Mekhi Becton

5--Redskins
(From the Dolphins)
OT Jedrick Wills Jr.

6--Chargers
QB Jordan Love

7--Panthers
CB Jeff Okudah

8--Cardinals
OT Tristan Wirfs

9--Jaguars
LB Isaiah Simmons

10--Browns
Trade down

I'm glad that you are agreeing with me. It's nice when people are rational.

This what I meant by preferred player.



The probability of making successful picks is greatest at the beginning of the first round (around the top six picks). After that it starts to level out a ton. Having more picks allows you to increase your probability of having success. I'd much rather have a 25% chance on hitting on a pick three times instead of one time.

I believe trading down allows you to build for now and the future.

For example:

Trade down from pick #10 to pick #22. Draft the best player available. Pick up a first round pick for next year. The 22nd pick is nearly as likely to contribute on the same level as the 10th pick.

Getting future firsts are basically a lottery ticket. It's the reason we have Denzel Ward.

I’d be good with Thomas there

I think one thing you have to do is take the whole draft into account. The makeup of the pool of players coming out now vs coming out in the next year or two. As we've seen, even in just the last year or two, drafts can be heavy at certain positions, or be really good/suck in general. I think having a good understanding of where the current draft is and what's coming down the road can inform a good decision on whether or not to trade down, especially in the first couple rounds.

I really hope the Redskins and Trent work things out so that this doesn't happen.

As a lot of people do here, I think trading down can be a good strategy, in the right situation. For this year, I think trading down would not be the best move. The trade down/ get more picks is better for a team totally bereft of talent. Which, I think is not the case with the 2020 Browns. We are getting to the point where a draft consisting of three good picks is enough to get the team well on the way to more success.

Like I said earlier, I believe in trading down at times. It depends on your board. I am not a fan of trading up, unless you are a qb away from being very good.

Didn't we get Ward when we traded the 12th pick for Watson? And didn't Watson tear his ACL as a rookie? I don't think we get Ward if Watson doesn't get hurt.

I am not saying what the Browns should do because I don't know what their board looks like and who will be available. However, I don't think it's very intelligent to go into a draft planning to trade down.

I don't think this is true. Teams like the Patriots and Seahawks trade down almost every year.



Are you more likely to make three good picks if you have more picks or less picks?

It depends on who is doing the picking.

Even the best drafter is barely hitting at a 50% rate on first round picks.

It depends on the location of the picks. You have a better chance of getting talented players with higher picks. So three top 15 picks will probably get you more talent than 5 second and third rounders.

Obviously having many high first round picks would be better than having more more later round picks (as you said).

But having the tenth pick versus having the, for example, 22nd pick is not much different especially considering the value of the extra picks you would get from trading back.

We too often draft with fear...fear of making the WRONG pick and being ridiculed by the media. Hence, Myles Garret over Patrick Mohomes. Garret will never win a SB for us, Mohomes already has. Enough said.

Draft the damn player you WANT...enough of this BS trying to score more picks.

Patriots are the masters of the draft....follow their lead.

I think, for this draft only, staying put would be the better plan. Simply because our need dovetails with the top ten slot. In another draft, sure, I agree that value always warrants at least a hard ponder.

I think one lesson from our recent past should be to NOT assume that more picks are better than fewer picks.

The trades were good the picks were bad.

If we had Will Fuller, Justin Simmons, Tyreek Hill, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Derek Watt, and Anthony Brown instead Corey Coleman, Cody Kessler, Derrick Kindred, Ricardo Louis, Jordan Payton, and Spencer Drango in 2016 people would love trading down.

Or because there are so many good tackles a quality one will fall lower in the draft and we would be able to get one if we trade down.

I don't mind a trade down if I feel I can still get a really good player, but in the case of Sashi, I think we dropped too far. But it was a bit different then. We were looking to add picks.

I don't think that is the driving force today. We have a team with some talent on O and underachieved last year. My feeling is we are in build mode. That doesn't mean we can't or won't trade down where it makes sense, but we do need to add good players who can step in and help.

I fully expect we will draft one of the top OT's and probably follow it up in the 3rd with a interior Olman. Maybe another
tackle.

We are close on O. We are miles away on D. Even though I am a build the D first thinker, Dorsey wasn't, so the smart thing to do in my mind is finish what Dorsey started on that side of the ball. Scoring more points next year is going to bring us more wins because the D is going to give up points.

Free agency will determine much

That sums it up. The strategy wasn't flawed, the people we selected were.

That is what scares me, cause when Sashi was here he said he what let the Scouting Department and Coaches do their jobs and that he would only step in if there was a disagreement on a player so unless there was a lot of disagreements those picks were on Berry.

Trading down is only appropriate if you have extremely competent talent evaluators like John Schneider in Seattle. Belichicks strength is his ability to get players that fit his systemand his excellent coaching.

Teams like the Browns should never trade down because frankly there hasnt been 1 GM in 20 yrs that has proven they know what they are doing

Agreed. I think it's a huge concern regarding the drafting ability of the new FO. It's not like we don't have any history on them.

Hell, last year I didn't even follow the draft because I just trusted that Dorsey, Highsmith, and Wolf would do a good job.

I haven't been following it this, either. But, that is mostly because I am already taking blood pressure pills and don't want jeopardize my health after the draft.

I like Herbert the QB from Oregon. Hes a great athlete. Good passer. If hes there at 10, the Browns should consider drafting him, unless they wanna tank for Lawrence next year

I watched enough of Herbert to not want any part of him. Christian Ponder 2.0.

Trading down in the late 20's + pick range (ala Patriots, Seattle) is much easier than when you're in top 10, because the available talent difference tends to be much less.

I think the talent drop from ten to twenty two is much less than the talent drop from two to ten.

Herbert is a dud.

That’s my gut feeling too to be honest. I think he’s gonna be a bust