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How one big decision changed the future for Francisco Lindor and Christian Yelich
https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2020/03/...ian-yelich.html
By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer
ABOUT CHRISTIAN YELICH AND FRANCISCO LINDOR

Some Cleveland Indians fans are extremely upset about the Milwaukee Brewers signing MVP Christian Yelich to a nine-year, $215-million contract extension.

Why can’t the Tribe do something like that with Francisco Lindor?

After all, since when is Milwaukee a major market? Cleveland is bigger!

On the surface, that makes some sense.

But Lindor and Yelich made two very different money decisions after their second season in the big leagues – and those decisions are why Yelich cut a deal with Milwaukee.

And it’s also why Lindor could end up with a contract worth twice as much as Yelich when the Tribe shortstop hits free agency after the 2021 season.

Here’s the situation:

1. Yelich was the 23rd overall pick by the Miami Marlins in the 2010 draft. He reached the majors in 2013.

2. In his first two big league seasons, Yelich showed some promise. He batted .286 (.765 OPS) with 13 HR and 70 RBI in 873 at bats. But he didn’t look like a superstar.

3. Heading into his third season (2016), Miami offered him a contract extension to “buy out” at least two years of free agency. Yelich was interested in security. He signed a seven-year, $49-million deal.

4. Yelich was traded to Milwaukee in January of 2018. At that point, he had been a big leaguer for four years. The outfielder had yet to make an All-Star team.

5. Playing in hitter-friendly Milwaukee, Yelich averaged 40 HR and 104 RBI over the last two seasons, batting .328. He won an MVP award. He’s a legitimate superstar... but that didn’t happen until 2018.

6. Yelich still had three years left on his 2015 Miami contract when the Brewers approached him about an extension. He had very little leverage. He would not be a free agent until he reached the age of 31.

7. Yelich made the same decision now that he did in 2015. They offered him a lot of money. He likes Milwaukee. The Brewers took two years from his old deal and added seven more... coming up with a nine-year, $218-million deal.

8. Yelich’s future was set up by the decision he made in 2015. Is there anything wrong with being guaranteed nearly $50 million? By the end of his new contract, he will have pocketed about $260 million,

THE OTHER ROAD

Meanwhile, Lindor made a different decision after his first two big league seasons.

1. Unlike Yelich, Lindor emerged as an immediate star once he reached the Majors. He batted .313 as a rookie in 2015, .301 in 2016. There are lots of other stats to prove he was a great player in the field and at bat.

2. Lindor was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner in 2016. In the spring of 2017, the Indians made their first big push for an extension. I heard it was for more than $100 million over seven years. This was the same point where Miami offered Yelich a seven-year extension for half the money of Lindor.

3. Lindor quickly turned down the extension. Had he accepted it, then the Indians would be in much the same position as Milwaukee with Yelich. They’d have him under control for several more years. That could have led to a more “team friendly” second extension.

4. Instead, Lindor and his agent kept their eyes on free agency, where they know contracts grow richer each year.

5. Lindor can look at contracts such as $330 million (Bryce Harper with the Philadelphia Phillies), $300 million (Manny Machado with the San Diego Padres) and $324 million (Gerrit Cole with the New York Yankees) and correctly think, “I’m better than those guys.”

6. Lindor hits the open market after the 2021 season and he could join Mike Trout in the $400 million club. He was headed in that direction from the moment he rejected the various Tribe offers in 2017 (and since then).

THE GRADY SIZEMORE EXAMPLE

Other agents and media members could criticize Yelich for signing that seven-year deal back in 2015. But $49 million is $49 million.

And those who knock the first contract operate on one key assumption: The player stays healthy.

In 2006, Grady Sizemore was heading into his second MLB season with the Tribe. He signed a six-year, $24-million deal. Word was Sizemore made a mistake by delaying free agency for two years.

Sizemore made All-Star teams in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Then he got hurt. And he kept getting hurt. In the last three years of that deal, he made about $18 million and never could regain anything close to his All-Star form.

A more recent example is Michael Brantley.

In 2014, he signed a four-year, $25-million extension with the Tribe. He was a star in the first two years of that deal. But injuries hit in 2016-17, he played only 101 total games (earning $13 million in that span).

That contract also included an $11-million team option in 2018. The Indians gambled on Brantley getting healthy and they picked it up. He was an All-Star.

That 2014 extension gave Brantley two seasons to recover from shoulder and ankle surgeries.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Yelich wanted to protect himself and his family in case of injury. He also wasn’t an All-Star until his sixth big league season (2018). There are a lot of sound reasons to explain why the Milwaukee outfielder grabbed the big money when first made available.

Lindor received a $2.9-million signing bonus after being the Tribe’s top pick in the 2011 draft. That set him up as a multi-millionaire at the age of 18.

It also allowed him to play year-to-year, count on staying healthy and know he’d begin to cash in when he became arbitration eligible. In the last two years (2019-2020), he’s been paid $28 million.

Lindor is an elite player and wants to be paid like it. Assuming he stays away from a major injury, he’s in position for a monster contract.

While they don’t publicly admit it, the Indians know at some point they will probably have to trade him. The only question is when that will happen.

Nice breakdown by Pluto ... he’s best with his MLB stuff IMO.

Lindor bet on himself and won. I really hope we are able to get a substantial amount for him, but that looks less and less likely

" I really hope we are able to get a substantial amount for him, but that looks less and less likely [/quote]

Remember the girl's all look prettier at closing time.

Just to clarify, those were Jason Lloyd's words, not Dustin Fox.

https://twitter.com/ByJasonLloyd/status/1237114111231537153

I should've clarified it was from Lloyd's piece that just released in The Athletic.

He'll be on 92.3 to discuss it at 5:20pm.

My opinion is that Lindor is being disingenuous. He has every right to get as big a deal as he can get, but he has no right to dictate the team's payroll policy without any working knowledge of their financial situation. I believe he wants a mega contract in a media center city like NY, LA, Chicago, Atlanta, etc, while still trying to maintain this "Cleveland is my home; I love it here." canard. Meanwhile, his math leaves $85M for the other 25 players on the roster ($3.4M per player), while he gets $35M. That may work in the short term, but what happens when its time to pay our other top guys (Ramirez, Clevinger, Bieber, Reyes, Mercado, et al)?

Love the kid .. But they better hope someone comes calling with a real offer come the trade deadline this Season ! . Feel like the first half of the season is going to really tough ..

Left field is a problem ( bat ).. I am not sold on this Shields guy and have no idea what this new Santana can do ..

Feel like Francona is going to get hurt by some of the bullpen arms he will keep coming out of camp.

I know this a crazy idea but how about the guy who is worth $5.5 billion pays the players what they are worth.

Not to be snarky , but he didn't get to be a Billionaire by spending ! lol

j/c...

Christian Yelich pulled a Bobby Bonilla. Time for the Dolans to get creative with Lindor's contract...

I don't follow baseball very much in recent years. However, when watching the Tribe, there is no doubt that Lindor is a great player.

With all due respect, I do not follow your logic of not paying one of the best players in the game. Owners make a ton of money off of what the players do. I think that you would want to keep your best players and field a competitive team.

Not paying your best players is about as dumb as the tanking strategy that some think is "smart."

Bonilla is the guy I thought of too

Goodyear Scribbles: For Aaron Civale and Cleveland Indians, a good day in the sun
https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2020/03/...in-the-sun.html

By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer
GOODYEAR, Arizona – Scribbles in my notebook after watching the Indians beat the Giants 11-7 Monday:

1. Before the the Tribe played San Francisco, Mike Clevinger told a few of us media types he was feeling very good after throwing his first bullpen session of the spring. “It’s real good,” he said. “Nothing is sore.”

2. Clevinger had “minor” knee surgery on February 14. He is expected to open the season on the disabled list. But the right-hander is excited about his progress after throwing 25 pitches. A bullpen session is not a game of catch. The pitcher throws from the mound and uses several of his pitches. It’s a big step to becoming game ready.

3. Then came the game, where Aaron Civale allowed one run and one hit in three innings. The 24-year-old right-hander struck out six. That’s right, six of his nine outs came via the strikeout.

4. “He threw one (bad) fastball for a home run,” said Manager Terry Francona. “He got up to his velocity. For a young kid, he has amazing self awareness of what he wants to do...he’s a pretty mature kid.”

5. I talked to Civale after his start, mentioning he wasn’t in big league camp a year ago. In fact, I don’t recall hearing Civale’s name among top prospects last spring. In 2018, Civale had a 5-7 record with a 3.89 ERA at Class AA Akron. He also had a couple of minor injuries that season.

6. Civale was sent back to Akron to open 2019. He was 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA. Then he moved to Class AAA Columbus (3-1, 2.13 ERA). By July, he was in Cleveland.

7. Monday, Civale looked like the mature pitcher who had a 3-4 record and 2.34 ERA in 10 starts with the Tribe. He controlled the strike zone. He explained he has six pitches...three different fastballs. “I have a good idea when to use them now,” he said.

8. Civale pulled a groin muscle early in camp. He was worried for a while, but this as was his second performance. The only run in five innings is the homer. “I really feel good,” he said. “I’m getting my body in the right shape. My goal is to be able to throw 100 pitches (by the opening of the regular season).”

9. The Indians need Civale. Clevinger is out, at least for a while. Carlos Carrasco is not pitching right now due to some elbow soreness, which is supposed to be minor. Shane Bieber is the opening day starter. He has been dominate all spring ( 7 2/3 scoreless innings). Now Civale looks strong. Those two could be at the top of the rotation early.

10. Jose Ramirez is having a strong spring, hitting .320 with a pair of HRs and doubles. Francona mentioned how “He’s hitting the ball fair.” When Ramirez was in his long early-season slump in 2019, when he hit the ball hard – it often went foul. He is working on being more patient at the plate.

11. Domingo Santana dropped a fly ball in right field, It was somewhat windy and the sun was bright. But no one else dropped a fly ball Monday. He led all outfielders in errors last season. He is 5-for-25 this spring with 10 strikeouts.

12. Santana is on a 1-year, $1.5 million contract. He probably will play mostly DH. He is expected to make the team, but that contract is not the kind for long-term job security if he fails to produce.

13. Bradley Zimmer had been struggling most of camp, but Monday he lashed a single and a double – both to center field. He’s 5-for-25 this spring. He is playing a lot with Oscar Mercado resting his slightly sprained wrist.

14. Greg Allen is pressing, 2-for-21. Allen and Zimmer are likely to open the season at Class AAA Columbus.

15. Brad Hand threw a scoreless inning. He has allowed only one run in five spring innings, striking out six. Francona praised Hand’s slider. The Indians are asking him to go slowly and build up his arm strength. He had a “tired arm” at the end of last season.

Yes, because we have seen over and over again the owners of major sports franchises being honest with fans and players...…

How anyone actually thinks the team could not afford this is beyond me.

Any remember while back, the Pirates were crying about being a "mid level market team" and not having a chance, etc. They couldn't pay players, didn't have the money, blah blah blah.

Then someone leaked their financials and it showed they were like in the top 10 in baseball on money cleared by the organization, and like 2nd to last or last in payroll?

Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

The team certainly can afford it.

The problem is, they don't want to. The Dolans are happier making 60 million and keeping as in their pocket, instead of 30 million and winning a title. Until that changes, nothing else will.

I don't think people realize the gap between our "top guys" and Lindor, and how much better he is than they are.

You have good players and then HOF candidate type player.

Good organizations, even mid level ones, find ways to keep those guys around for a while.

You are talking about the owner we wish we had, and I am talking about the one we actually have. Nowhere in their ownership history have the Dolans paid one of their top free agents market value to keep them. Not Manny, not Thome, not CC, and not Cliff Lee. Neither were the Jacobs willing to pony up for Albert Belle. Wishing won't make it so. Fans cannot force an owner to spend what he feels he can't afford to spend, when only he has the whole picture of expenses vs revenues. Fans cannot force an owner to sell the team. Reality: they are simply NOT going to pay Lindor a figure approaching 33% of the total 26-man roster payroll.

Factor in that they had to come up with $200M-287M when minority owner John Sherman divested his minority ownership share to buy the Royals.

https://www.crainscleveland.com/kevin-kl...resting-monitor

Factor in that some local media think Lindor is looking for a lot more than $300M or $350M. Apparently its more like $400m, putting Lindor into Mike Trout company, making he and Trout the two highest paid in MLB. Trout's contract is 22% of the Angels' total payroll; Lindor's would be 32% of the Indians total (@ $120M total).

https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2020/03/...nd-indians.html

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-angels/payroll/

I would love to see Lindor stay. I wish the Dolan family would commit to a $150-180M annual payroll. But if it doesn't make sense to them to pay that, I would rather watch a team that will still contend without Lindor than one with Lindor and a mixture of marginal major leaguers and a few other good players surrounding him.

Or, and I know this might sound crazy, pay Lindor and the other players.

I think most would argue and agree that you are more of a contender with Lindor than without.

Two in the hand kind of deal.

You realize we very well could be the next pirates with 20 years of losing if we don't try to keep up with a decent payroll.

Your not going to be a contender spending less than 120 million in MLB, and if you are - its a one or two year fluke.

I feel like I'm talking to a wall. They are not going to do that. Its their team. Its their money.

We know they are not going to do that. You realize that's the issue right? Instead of making excuses for them not doing that, maybe hold them accountable for not doing it..... Just a thought.

The Indians have won the most games over the past 4 seasons combined. They are very good at figuring out how to best use their salary budget.

The biggest problem teams closer to the bottom in revenue face is the inability to buy their way out of mistakes and/or injuries.

This is not going to change until MLB has a legitimate salary cap/floor, with real revenue sharing.

Right. They should do that.

With Lindor, huh go figure. How many games you think we are going to win when he is not here?

You see, no one is disputing that there is an issue, and not one is saying the Indians should be spending 200 million a year on payroll.

The issue is not understanding that the team is not going to lose money by spending 120

Here's another thought: if you can't see their books, you don't know what you don't know ... compound ignorance. I am not saying that about you in particular. I mean all of us.

j/c...

The Bad: The Dolans are never (unless they completely shock the world) going to sign one of their free agents to a big contract. Letting Brantley go was a big mistake. This is unfortunate for fans. Can they afford to pay Lindor and have $120M payroll? Yes. Can they afford to pay Lindor and carry a $150M payroll which is closer to what is needed to truly compete? I have no idea. Paul Dolan says something stupid that grates on the fans every time he speaks.

The Good: The Dolans hire people that are extremely good at their job and let them do their jobs. They do not meddle and they do not fire people. They put out a good product. They win a lot of games. Probably one of the best run organizations in all of sports.

The Pathetic: We have a future HOFer in Lindor and some other really good players that could still make a deep run in the playoffs and they are choosing to carry an $88M payroll. Inexcusable.

Other notes, Opening Day is still not sold out. It typically sells out in less than 5 minutes.

Once again, it was shown that 10 years ago - the pirates after completing their 18th straight losing season, were pocketing 15 million in cash, and using 44 million of baseballs revenue sharing on other forms of expenses.

You see, the issue is that they get a ton of money form MLB, and are not mandated to use it on making the team better or signing players or free agents.

I would only expect, those number have gone up DRASTICALLY over the last 10 years, and probably have doubled since then.

So while you say I don't know their books, we have an idea of what teams do. As every team that was leaked 10 years ago, showed a lot of money not being spent.

Exactly, because the Dolans are looking at this way.

Why pay frankie and a team 120 million to make 150 million an pocket 30

when you can pay 80 million, make 120 million, and pocket 40.

That's the problem. The Dolans are more willing to suck because they when business comes to terms, they will probably make more sucking than maintaining a good team.

The Indians have not "sucked"! Geesh.

Once again, MLB is not the NFL. There is wide divergence from team to team regarding many variables, including revenues, expenses, and receipt of luxury tax disbursements.

Do you think the Indians lose money?

Does an owner need to lose money before people stop calling them cheap? This may come as a surprise to some, but most people who are in business do so because they are trying to make money. Nobody goes into business thinking "This will never work; I'll probably lose everything. But that's okay as long as no one thinks I'm cheap.".

I doubt the Dolans are losing money, but I also don't know how much they make, or need to make, to make it worth their investment.

WHat? No one said anything about the NFL. SMH.

So you think its ok for a scenario like this:


spend 80 million on payroll to pocket 30 million

instead of paying 120 million on payroll to pocket 20 million

Because based on the information we say in the leaks 10 years ago, that's more than likely happening.

Did they suck before Frankie, Jose, etc get here? In 09-10-11-12, they most definitely sucked.

Yet they were making millions in those years too. You see, they don't care if they are good or not, as long as they are still making their profit margins.

I don't think what you think you know about the Pirates financials from 10 years ago has anything to do with any other team but the Pirates.

Here are the Indians player expenses by year.

• Cleveland Indians player salaries (payroll) 2001-2018 | Statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/205712/team-payroll-of-the-cleveland-indians/

The Indians player expense last year, including bonuses and benefits, was $157 million. That does not include administrative costs, coaching salaries, park improvements, and other expenses.

And, again ..... the Indians have the best record over the past 4 seasons. They suck though.

Then why did they fire Acta and throw money at Tito if they do not care about winning and continue to extend his contract?

Why sign Encarnacion?

The Dolans have their flaws, but to say they do not care if they win or lose and it's only about profits is disingenuous.

The Yankees spent a ton and managed to appear in only one play-in WC playoff game from 2013-2016.

The San Fran Giants have been bad for the last three years.

Lost of ebbs and flows in baseball.

Given the payroll disparity, the Indians should be given credit for consistently putting out a good product.