DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... COVID-19

1. The flu is not more dangerous. More people have it, yes. Meaning you are more than likely going to catch the flu over the CV (so far), but the mortality rates of the two are COMPLETELY different. While the flu is at .02% mortality, the CV is currently around 3.6%. BIG difference.

I put it this way to my parents. Driving vs. Diving with Great White sharks with bloody fish head around your neck.

More people get in car accidents than die from swimming with the sharks, but I bet you are more inclined to go for a drive.

2. We don't know the full effects of this virus yet. We don't know if there are going to changing strains, more strains, is this going to come back year after year, is the warmer climate going to kill it off, etc. we are 18 months away from a vaccine - we just don't know much about it. Probably the reason for panic.

j/c

On March 7th, the US had just hit 400 cases and we were sharing the article talking about how the number of cases doubles every six days and the long-term ramifications of that.

As of this afternoon, we've just crossed 800 cases (805 at this moment).

Of course, it was expected to see it happen more rapidly as testing actually increased, but I seriously did not expect us to double in just three days.

Got a text from my daughter who attends the U. Of Toledo. They are on spring break now, but classes have been cancelled for 3-16 and 3-17, to allow prof's/instructors to get classes on line starting the 18th.

Ironically, the dorms are still going to be open, dining halls open, library open. Money is involved, right? But, I do get it, many many students would have no where to go if they closed the dorms, etc.

I actually did. My guess would be that in more than doubles in the next three days if there is even more increased testing. That's why i was so concerned about not having the tests we needed. I can't even imagine how much it spread in the weeks we should have been testing for it.

For as concerned as everyone was about Iran, jeez.... Italy is just getting crushed by this. They're actually tracking right with the progression of Mainland China. Iran isn't too much better, officially, but it is still doing better, so far.


Shout out to Montenegro; still the last in Europe to be case-free!!

To note, the doubling rate is looking to hold up globally, too.
On Saturday, there were roughly 25,000 cases outside of China. We are now at 38,000 cases outside of China and easily on pace to be > 50,000 cases inside that 6-day window. We've grown at a rate of >4,000 cases a day the last several days, but that too is accelerating.

I have tickets for Friday night. With the way things are being canceled, I doubt it goes through. I wonder if full refunds will be given to everyone or only those that purchased insurance.

I believe I will get the virus in the near future have a fever have a cough and will get better and go on with my life. Scary thought but I think this is exactly what will happen to me and my wife. I take the subway every day no way around it.

A comparison with H1N1 (Bird Flu) in 2009:

Baseline link
"From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus."

link 2
"In uncomplicated infections, swine flu typically begins to resolve after three to seven days, but the malaise and cough can persist two weeks or more in some patients. Severe swine flu may require hospitalization that increases the length of time of infection to about nine to 10 days."



Now, take what we know of this disease and apply it to the same number of infected.
If we get 60.8 million infections, here is what we can expect:
11,248,000 Hospitalizations of several weeks (3-6 weeks, on average) (13.8% of cases are severe, 4.7% are critical - added together that is 18.5%).
2,857,000 in ICU (the 4.7% of critical)
2,067,200 deaths



H1N1 was nasty. It had a really high death rate and got REALLY widespread.
This one has high potential to be a lot worse.

Citing governor’s directive, OHSAA says tournaments will have ‘limited spectators’

https://www.dispatch.com/sports/20200310...spectatorsrsquo



That'll be tough.

I have little doubt that this is the case for many of us, actually. The question is what happens to those in my family that are in the higher risk categories.... my father, my mom, my aunts and uncles, mentors, etc

Sure, my personal likelihood of dying is definitely on the lower end of the spectrum, but that isn't what worries me. Hell, deliberately doing things with a chance of death isn't anything new to me, so some little bug isn't going to change anything, but I do worry about impact to others.

Example: not this last Sunday, but the one before, my older brother and I went to my Dad's house to remove his old couch to make room for a new one he is getting delivered. I felt fine. I felt healthy. That night and half the next morning, I was vomiting my brains out. Whatever I had, they were most definitely exposed to and that worried me..... and we weren't talking about anything more than the possibility of the flu at the time. My older brother had cancer and a couple of strokes a few years back. He's all good now, but I'm not sure I'd say that his immune system is 100%, ya know? My Dad is about to turn 77. Both are higher risk and this simple sort of daily life activity can change things dramatically, and that's kinda disconcerting.

LMAO The odds have been way against my favor for just over five years. Just call me Mr Cockroach lol

Miami of Ohio, and Akron have cancelled classes as well. I believe Harvard told students the campus was closed. Closed, as in move out. That'll put the squeeze on a lot of students.