DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... COVID-19: The World Killer

What sucks is that lets say this virus continues on through the summer.

By the time we have even a remote handle on this, flu season will be making another round. And we won’t have a vaccine until sometime next year.

Yikes.

Pretty much, yup.
The worry with this one has always been the picture weeks down the road and the degree of measures required so far to reign it in.

It took China essentially shutting down the entire nation, completely, to get them under control to the point where they may have their R0 below 1 (transmissability rate).
I don't think we can do that here in the U.S.
I don't think we can even enact/enforce what Italy is doing, which makes me think that there is a high probability that the end result here is it being everywhere.... and, yes, then it still going on come September and October when flu season kicks in again.



Cue Eddie Cochran singing "there ain't no cure for this summertime flu"

World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-pandemic.html

I’m sure this is a captain obvious moment but they made it official.

It is not insignificant. It means that they've accepted that they cannot get ahead of it.

“Unless we’re convinced it’s uncontrollable, why ... call it a pandemic?” he told reporters last week.

China reports no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases outside epicenter

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Mainland China reported no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases outside the epicenter of Hubei province for the second day running on Monday, but a top Communist Party official warned against people dropping their guard.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healt...i-idUSKBN20W00Y

That's huge.
That concerning part is when you look at what they had to do in order to get to this point.

The next thing to watch is what happens as they begin to relax constraints on things. Does it make a comeback?

Merkel: Virus will infect up to 70 percent of Germans

German Chancellor Angela Merkel cited expert estimates that up to 70 percent of the population could be infected by the coronavirus.

Germany confirmed some 1,300 infections, with two deaths.

"You have to understand that if the virus is there, and the population has no immunity yet to this virus, there are no vaccines and no therapy so far, a high percentage - experts say 60 to 70 percent - of the population will be infected," Merkel said at a news conference in Berlin.

She said the priority is to slow the spread of the disease "so all the measures we are taking are of the greatest significance because they are giving us time - it does matter what we do, it is not in vain."

The government recommended the cancellation of events with more than 1,000 people, among other things.

Global business travel could suffer $820bn, industry body says
The global business travel sector is expected to take a revenue hit of about $820bn, with China accounting for nearly half of the losses, as corporates curb travel plans in the face of the coronavirus epidemic, an industry body said.

Business travel to Asia has been the worst hit, with at least three out of every four companies reporting they have cancelled or suspended all or most business trips to China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and other Asia-Pacific destinations, according to a survey by Global Business Travel Association (GBTA).

Tests have been done. Maybe not as many as some would like.

Don't get too excited, this article says they had 24 cases (was published today)

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavir...d4ti-story.html

Of the 24 new virus cases reported by China on Wednesday, five had arrived from Italy and one from the United States. China has had over 81,000 virus infections and over 3,000 deaths.

Yes.
The Reuters report was speaking specifically about new locally transmitted cases outside Hubei province.

Yeah, this week. This has been going on since December dude, they have only started testing this week in some states, and some still haven't.

True, the other article doesn't say where they were in China.

Even so, lets say its slowed, it took what, quarantining the entire country? Not allowing people to leave their homes, shutting down the country?

What would it look like if they didn't do that?

We can look to that as a good sign, but if we are not prepared to handle it that way, we cannot expect the same results.

It has only been going on in the US since late January. Eight weeks, tops. Let's not get hyperbolic and instead stick with real facts and details.


Yes, testing is starting to happen here now.
No, it has not been happening all along, and no, we do not have any clear idea at all of how far-reaching things may be.

Pretty much my feelings on it, entirely.
I do not see us being able to pull that off here in the U.S.

I think our only real hope of avoiding what they and Italy have is for us to slow it by having a hyper-aware public, and hoping that buys enough time for one of these antivirals to show themselves as being worthwhile. Short of that, Italy is what we have to look forward to. Germany is already planning on it, based on Merkel's comments.

I was speaking in general, since December. I should have been more clear.

The issue is that this has been going on in the WORLD since December, and we are now only getting test. Seems like they should have had them ready to go, but that's getting into the other thread topic then - so I will leave at that.

The problem with that though, is already you see people "what do you mean I have to wash my hands?! This is ridiculous!"

We the people, are why we cannot have nice things. You and I both know the general public is never going to be hyper-aware or listen to anything the CDC or WHO say.

I absolutely see Italy what we have to look forward too.

Yup. Shoulda/coulda.... there are mitigating circumstances. Some could have been avoided, some were unforeseen and unknown.

It is what it is.
In the end, at the time we finally had a need to begin widened testing, we found that our test kits weren't any good. You can't simply respond to that overnight. I have no idea what the timeframe is to produce test kits, but I'm betting it isn't just one week, especially if you still have to narrow down what went wrong in the last batch.

C'est la vie.

I agree completely.
We Watch.
We Learn.
We Take Precautions.
We Wait for a Treatment or Cure.

I maybe wrong, but didn't china at the time already have test kits? Just seems like we could have piggy backed their kits and replicated them rather quickly.

Does it spread in the opposite direction there?

I believe they did.
They also shared samples of things and we quickly mapped its genome, etc, etc, etc...

Beyond that, without knowing the How and Why our kits were faulty, it's pretty much impossible to comment on what should have been done differently, I think.

Down there you get the symptoms first, then you're contagious.

Yup, the world is gonna go down the drain counter-clockwise down there

j/c...

My home county Stark here in Ohio has said one person with a confirmed case is being treated at Mercy hospital in my home town of Canton.

That Reuters tweet is already well out of date.

121,564 cases
4,373 deaths

j/c...

I don't think I'm going to get to go to the March Madness tournament (frown face emoji)...

Governor Mike DeWine
@GovMikeDeWine
I thank those who have already chosen to limit large events in response to yesterday's recommendation. For the others, there will be an order.

That's disconcerting.

To extrapolate the numbers with a 2% mortality base rate...
70 million effected equals 1,400,000 deaths.
150 million effected equals 3,000,000 deaths.

Wash your hands folks. Don’t touch your face. Stay home if not feeling well. Call your elderly loved ones and check in frequently. Do public tasks/errands for them if able. Tell them you love them.

j/c...

While that's true, in part it was a disaster of our own making. We refused to use the W.H.O. tests which were working and available. Other nations were using that test. Instead we insisted on making our own tests and things went to hell in a handbag from there.

j/c:

HOWIE MANDEL
Time to Clock in ...
IN MY HAZMAT SUIT AND GAS MASK!!!

https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/10/howie-man...cas-got-talent/

Yup. Shoulda/coulda.... doesn't matter, now.

LOL!

He's just got a bong in the end of that hose, that's all

124,910 cases
4,589 deaths now...

j/c...

Wow...

That's just getting out of hand, now..... BUT, I expect the people in charge are guided by a worry over liability issues, not some sense of righteous care for the athletes.


Every athlete in the tourney is squarely in one of the demographics with the absolute least to be concerned about.

Down goes New Mexico.

Maine, Alabama, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Alaska, and Wyoming are still in the pool.