I like a FS who can roam the deep portion of the field and make plays on the ball. I think in-the-box safeties are easy to find, but finding a guy who can play deep safety is much harder to obtain.
This is a statement about safeties from PFF:
Quote:
Free agency came last week, and with it plenty of activity. The safety position was one of the more active, with Justin Simmons and Anthony Harris earning the franchise tag, while players like Malcolm Jenkins, Eric Murray, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Tre Boston and others earned deals.
While free agency is often seen as the solution for all of a team’s needs, the draft is really where you find value in the offseason. And when it comes to safety, there are a decent number of prospects at the position.
I'm going to talk about three of these safeties and would welcome your opinion on any of those guys and/or add other prospects who might fit at FS for the Browns. I ask that we not suggest Strong Safeties/In-the-box types.
Grant Delpit, LSU. I think he might be drafted late round 1 to mid-second.
Even after a rough junior season, LSU safety Grant Delpit is a good analytical prospect
By Eric Eager Mar 24, 2020
[Editor's Note: PFF's new college-to-pro projection system is powered by AWS machine learning capabilities.]
After a sophomore season in which he earned an 84.4 overall grade in 847 snaps, Delpit regressed a bit his junior year to 68.7, missing 20 tackles and allowing 14 of 22 passes into his coverage to be completed. Injuries were a big reason for this decline, as an undisclosed preseason injury lingered throughout the season.
Using our college-to-pro system, we will look at Delpit’s projected performance during his rookie contract. This projection uses his play-by-play data from college, adjusts it for play- and opponent-level context and weighs more-recent data more than past data.
How Delpit Projects as a Coverage Player
Coverage is the most important thing a safety does, and Delpit projects well there. Only Geno Stone of Iowa projects to have a bigger “playmaker rate” — rate of passes broken up and interceptions per primary coverage snap — than Delpit does in the context-free environment:
Grant Delpit’s projected completion percentage allowed and playmaker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in the context-free environment.
No safety plays in a context-free environment, though, as some guys are predominantly slot guys, some play deep and others play in the box. Delpit split time almost equally a season ago between deep safety (385 snaps) and slot cornerback (316). If we give him said split as a coverage player, his projections get even better (and more narrow, since the uncertainty of “what will he do?” largely goes away):
Grant Delpit’s projected completion percentage allowed and playmaker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his coverage snaps are in the box, 40 percent are in the slot and 40 percent are deep. Median rates for free safeties in the NFL are represented by the dotted lines.
Of course, Delpit’s role will be largely determined by who drafts him, and George Chahrouri and I went with Tampa Bay in Round 1 in our mock draft. If Delpit were deployed more like Jamal Adams was in Todd Bowles’ scheme in New York in 2018, which was more of a 55% box, 15% slot, 30% deep split, his projected coverage data takes a little bit of a hit, but still lands him as one of the most efficient playmakers in his class:
Grant Delpit’s projected completion percentage allowed and playmaker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 55 percent of his coverage snaps are in the box, 15 percent are in the slot and 30 percent are deep.
Delpit's projections in coverage come with some impressive statistical comps: Earl Thomas, Tony Jefferson, Ricardo Allen, Montae Nicholson and Tavon Wilson.
How Delpit Projects as a Pass Rusher
Over the past two seasons, Delpit has been a good pass rusher, taking part in six sacks and generating 18 total pressures. He was better in 2018 than 2019, but the talent to do some damage in that area of the game is there.
Grant Delpit’s projected pressure and sack rate during the first five years of his NFL career in the context-free environment.
While this pressure rate is not as high as some of his contemporaries (Kyle Dugger, Antoine Winfield Jr., Xavier McKinney), it increases with different usages and is certainly passable at the position.
How Delpit Projects as a Run Defender
Run defense is one of those things that teams probably overvalue in safeties, but it exemplifies traits that are important to have in the passing game as well (being able to make tackles short of the line the gain). In this regard, Delpit is one of the best in his class in terms of stop rate (rate of tackles that elicit an unsuccessful play by the offense) and positively graded play rate in the run game:
Grant Delpit’s projected stop and positively graded play rate in the running game during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where he plays 20 percent of his snaps in the box, 40 percent in the slot and 40 percent deep.
Despite some regression during his junior year, Delpit is a great pro prospect at an important position. Due to recency bias, we’ve seen his stock decline over the past year, meaning that whoever selects him come April will get a value — especially for a ready-made defense in need of a playmaker.
Geno Stone's statistical projections are among the best in his class
By Eric Eager Mar 25, 2020
Like his contemporary, Grant Delpit, Stone’s best year came in his sophomore campaign, when he earned an 88.4 overall PFF grade. Unlike Delpit, Stone did not regress significantly in 2019, earning an 83.4 overall PFF grade. His interceptions fell from four to one, but he broke up another three passes and allowed only 22 of 36 passes into his coverage to be completed, while earning four pressures and 19 stops.
Using our college-to-pro system, we will look at Stone’s projected performance during his rookie contract. This projection uses his play-by-play data from college, adjusts it for play- and opponent-level context and weighs more-recent data more than past data.
How Stone Projects as a Coverage Player
Stone is projected to be the biggest playmaker in this safety class, edging out Delpit in terms of percentage of primary coverage snaps where he earns an interception or pass break up:
Geno Stone’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in the context-free environment.
Stone’s context-free projection gives him comps like Earl Thomas and Justin Simmons in coverage, which is great company to have. Context matters, though, and the majority of Stone’s snaps came deep (521 of 838) his final season as a Hawkeye. Adjusting for this:
Geno Stone’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his snaps are in the box, 20 percent in the slot and 60 percent deep.
Stone’s ability as a playmaker remains when we project him as a predominantly free safety, as do his impressive statistical comps.
How Stone Projects as a Run Defender
We don’t have much in the way of data for Stone as a pass rusher, since he did so on just seven snaps at Iowa (earning a pressure on five of those snaps). However, he did have almost 600 snaps of run defense, and those snaps put him in the middle of the class in terms of projected run-stop percentage or projected percentage of snaps earning a positively graded play designation from us at PFF.
His comps as a run defender are deep players like Earl Thomas and Ha Ha Clinton Dix, as well as more versatile guys like Adrian Amos and Will Hill, which is roughly in the middle of the pack in his class and above average relative to rookie-deal free safeties in the NFL. Run defense is not as important as other aspects of football, and thus while Stone is not elite in that area, his potential as a coverage player along with this projection as a defender in the run game is a good combination. Any team with a need at deep safety, or just looking to play more safeties in a modern defense that deploys three or more, will be getting a good one in the former Iowa standout.
Geno Stone’s projected run stop rate and positively graded play rate in the run game during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his snaps are in the box, 20 percent in the slot and 60 percent deep.
Ashtyn Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL
By Eric Eager Mar 27, 2020
In the final installment of our week studying safeties, we look at former Cal superstar Ashtyn Davis. After a junior season that saw him earn an 89.3 coverage grade, intercept four passes and break up another five, Davis was solid as a senior, allowing just 20 completions into his coverage, intercepting two passes and breaking up another two, earning a 73.8 coverage grade in the process. Almost two-thirds of Davis’ 673 snaps as a senior were in the deep part of the field, with over 100 at slot corner.
An injury forced Davis out of Cal’s bowl game, the Senior Bowl and all but the bench press (14 reps) of the combine, which means we have incomplete information from which to project. Alas, our system in these instances simply incorporates his play-by-play information, adjusting for context and level of competition:
How Davis Projects as a Coverage Player
Davis’ projected completion percentage allowed is one of the better ones in his class, and his near-10-percent playmaker rate (rate of interceptions and pass breakups per primary coverage snap) is also one of the top marks in the context-free environment.
If we assume that 70 percent of his snaps in coverage are deep, with another 15 percent in the slot, his projection becomes more like that of Grant Delpit of LSU, Geno Stone of Iowa and Kyle Dugger of Lenoir Rhyne, with statistical comps like Justin Simmons and Earl Thomas:
Ashtyn Davis’ projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate generated in an environment where 70 percent of his coverage snaps are at deep safety, 15 percent are at slot corner and 15 percent are in the box. Dashed vertical lines are league median rates for rookie-deal safeties from 2015-2019.
Projections that use Davis as more of a free safety are all significantly better than those that use him in the box or in the slot (or are context-free). This hurts Davis a little bit in a league where all-around safeties like Derwin James and Tyrann Mathieu are en vogue. However, being able to patrol the middle of the field the way Davis projects to will always help a defense. And it will continue to be that way as the requirement is increasingly six defensive backs in the modern NFL.
How Davis Projects as a Pass Rusher
Given that Davis’ best role in the NFL will be as a deep player, he doesn’t project as a productive player as a pass rusher, having earned only two pressures on 35 career snaps as a blitzer while at Cal. Given his lack of testing at the combine, and lack of production rushing the passer in college, he’s understandably projected to be in the bottom 20 percent at his position in this facet of play.
How Davis Projects as a Run Defender
Davis is not projected to be a terribly productive run defender, either, but this again is by virtue of where he’s projected to play more so than anything having to do with his ability. He missed only 19 tackles in four seasons with the Bears but produced only 29 stops during that time (just 10 last year).
If we assume he plays more in the box (a 50/50 split), his projection understandably improves, with comps like Matthieu, Justin Simmons and Anthony Harris. Thus, as opposed to this being an “unproductive” projection, it’s more of a “styles make fights” projection, with plenty of very good overall safeties having similar run defense statistics as Davis’ projection.
Ashtyn Davis’ projected stop rate and positively graded plays generated in the run in an environment where 50 percent of his coverage snaps are at deep safety and 50 percent are in the box. Dashed vertical lines are league median rates for rookie-deal safeties from 2015-2019.
Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL, which is why we had him in the first round of our mock a few weeks ago. With superstars the caliber of Earl Thomas, Justin Simmons, Tyrann Matthieu and Anthony Harris in his comps, the team that gets Davis will have one of the most important aspects of secondary play at the great value implied by the rookie deal.
Of the three that you selected I prefer Stone and Davis. To me, they fit the Free Safety position best. Davis' best assets are his range, speed and open-field tackling, in that order.
Stone seems to have superb instincts for the position. He diagnoses where the QB is going with the pass quite well. He gets his hands on passes frequently. He makes quick decisions. I really like his physical style of play.
There are questions about Delpit's "want to" as a tackler. I don't know if they are accurate but that concerns me. Even more than Greedy's reputation as a tackler because safeties have to be physical. My limited impression of him is that he was deployed as a box safety more than the back end.
Now, two guys who are not "pure" FS who I believe can play that position well are McKinney and Winfield. I saw a twitter post earlier this week that showed that McKinney had an almost even 1/3 position alignment between free, strong and slot. Winfield was a little less even with about a 40 percent strong, 35 percent free and 25 percent slot alignment. I can't find that chart now which also included Simmons. If anybody locates it please post it.
Jordan Fuller should not be left out of this conversation. He had an outstanding senior campaign. With the changes defensively by OSU from 2018 to 2019, it showed in his production. He improved his tackling. He has been very good in coverage. He's smart and he has a reputation for studying the game. I think he will be a solid pro.
JR Reed of Georgia is ranked as a solid prospect. I'm looking at his tape currently. My sleeper FS pick is Reed's cousin, Nigel Warrior of Tenn.
I agree with you to a great extent on the basis we can see Stone as being more physical. But at the same time, using Greedy as your example, he wasn't actually asked or required to be physical where he played in college.
We have seen here he is a willing and solid tackler. But when making a draft pick I think it's far more wise to draft based on what is known rather than a projection of what might be.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
If we could get Davis in a mid round I’d be very happy. I think he’s a good prospect, despite some dropping of his stock
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
It's not clear to me what you are saying related to my impression of Delpit as a tackler. Supposedly his stock has slipped and the reason sighted is concern about his tackling. I brought up Greedy not because I think he's a bad tackler, to the contrary.
That perception did exist though. I think its more of a concern when that tag is placed on a Safety.
I simply meant that that the fact we have not seen that physicality does not mean it isn't there. The exact same concerns were spoken about widely concerning Greedy before the draft. As you seem to agree with, those concerns turned out to be false.
I understand that the physical portion of the game is more needed at the safety position. Yet at the same time a CB who isn't a physical tackler leads to a lot of WR's breaking away leading to points.
Bottom line is, since we haven't seen the more physical style of play from him, it's an unknown. I don't like trying to draft a player that has question marks surrounding him that you have no answer to.
Thus, I'm actually trying my best to agree with you.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
ANALYST'S REPORTS: Nigel Warrior Marino Pros - Versatile - lines up in deep zones, the slot, in the box and fills multiple roles. Generally sound in coverage when mirroring routes and layering coverage. Highly physical player that is willing to play through contact and is a good finisher. Contact balance and hitting power are ideal. Has a quick trigger to run alleys, fill windows and find the football. Motor is outstanding and he always finds himself around the football. Checks the boxes in terms of size and athletic ability.
Cons - Leaves some ball production on the field with dropped interceptions and not putting himself in a better position to make plays on the ball. Angles and paths to the football in coverage sometimes fail him. Has to develop more consistency playing the ball to maximize his value.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
ANTOINE WINFIELD JR. -- The son of former Jim Thorpe Award winner and three-time NFL All-Pro cornerback Antoine Winfield Sr. somehow only gained three-star recruit status after his career at The Woodlands High School in Texas. He stepped into the starting lineup at safety for the Gophers in nine games as a true freshman, recording 52 stops, 2.5 for loss, four pass breakups and an interception (which he returned for an 82-yard score). Winfield's next two seasons ended in eerily similar fashions. He started the first four games of the 2017 (20 tackles, sack, two pass breakups, one blocked kick) and 2018 (17 tackles, one interception) seasons, and then missed the rest of each campaign with hamstring and foot injuries, respectively. The injuries happened against Maryland each year, as well. Healthy for all 13 starts in 2019, Winfield excelled. He was a first-team Associated Press All-American and first-team All-Big Ten selection after leading Minnesota with 88 tackles (3.5 for loss, three sacks) and seven interceptions (returning one for a score). Winfield also broke up another pass and forced two fumbles on the year.
Analysis
By Lance Zierlein NFL Analyst NFL Comparison T.J. Ward Overview Winfield isn't as tall or as long as teams like and he's an average athlete, but he's an interchangeable safety who can flat out play. Winfield is stout and strong with above average body control and balance. He can bang on tight ends in coverage and support the run near the box. His angles to the ball are efficient against the run or pass. He's very instinctive and sees plays unfold, but doesn't have ballhawking twitch to challenge a high number of throws. His tackle net isn't as wide in the open field, so he must tackle with excellent fundamentals. Winfield isn't a star but he's a quality building block with the toughness and intelligence to help fortify the back end.
Strengths Compact frame with above-average strength Highly instinctive and is always under control Watched tape at an early age with Pro Bowl cornerback father Takes cues from the quarterback Recognition of play design puts him in opportunistic positioning Anticipates pattern breaks in space Ball tracking comes naturally Turns to locate the ball with back to the quarterback Pursuit leverage and angles to the ball are a strength Comes to balance and sees what he hits as tacker Strikes with intensity and focus Looks to punch out fumbles and create turnovers
Weaknesses Missed extensive time in 2017 and 2018 due to injuries Below-average height and length for jump balls downfield Range over the top is a little bit limited Hip tightness prevents fluid transitions Sluggish to recover when he bites too hard on the cheese Below-average burst to drive on throws and make plays on the ball Lack of length shows up as a tackler Struggles to wrap and finish if positioning and footwork aren't on point
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
Thanks Pastor. I thought his skills were better suited to SS than FS, but I read a couple of other reports in addition to the one you provided and he might be able to play the deep safety.
Good. Another prospect who will be available after round 1.
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
After getting medical hardship waivers in both 2017 and 2018, Winfield broke out in a big way this season. He not only showed the physicality that his father was known for, but he also had some great angles and instincts on the back end en route to an 89.5 coverage grade. While he technically has two years of eligibility left after this season, Winfield’s stock may not go any higher than it already has after his seven interceptions in 2019.
Ashtyn Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL
This has been my preferred pick in Rd 2 for the last while. Good catch - he might last to our pick but I would move up a few to make certain we get him. I don't expect him to go in the first round (but one never knows)...
When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers...Socrates
I sometimes struggle with predictions of how college play will translate to NFL's every Sunday predictions. I certainly want a tackler and a man who can push cover when a stop is needed. I hope we draft one or more of these, even if for gunners or PS.
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
And please chime in if you have any thoughts on the deep safety or FS position and this draft. I know you study college football a lot and your opinion is respected.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
Second round Gladney Tcu I am taking a 1st round cornerback and start him from day one as a fs. Round3 Fulton CB lsu I will convert either one POINT draft either FUlton or Gladney with a fast linebacker and shut down all receiving tight end.
Hey guys.............when researching the deep safeties, keep an eye on guys who graded well playing at deep safety and in the slot. I think both are important to the position. You want guys who can roam the deep part of the field and then slide up and cover the slot receiver.
I think guys who grade high in both areas are very valuable.
Lenoir-Rhyne University has not had a player drafted since 2000, but NFL teams have been visiting the campus with interest due to Dugger's talents. The former All-County pick from Fayetteville, Georgia (in football and basketball) garnered second-team All-American and first-team All-South Atlantic honors as a defensive back (31 tackles, one for loss, two interceptions, four pass breakups) and punt return specialist (12 returns, 175 yards, 14.6 average, two touchdowns) despite starting only seven games due to a hand injury as a senior. He was a first-team All-South Atlantic Conference selection as a defensive back in 2018, recording 76 tackles, three interceptions, 10 pass breakups, three fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles. Dugger was also a first-team pick as a return specialist, averaging 17.2 yards per punt return (31 returns, 534 yards) and scoring twice (also nine returns, 180 yards, 20.0 average on kick returns). SAC coaches voted him second-team all-conference in 2017 after he made 87 tackles, 4.5 for loss, an interception, and six pass breakups in 10 starts. He had to redshirt the fall of 2016 after suffering a season-ending injury in the opener. Dugger impressed Bears coaches during his redshirt season and they started him 10 times the following year (43 tackles, four interceptions, two pass breakups).
Analysis By Lance Zierlein
Overview:
It's rare to find a safety with elite size, speed, explosiveness and production at a Power 5 school and almost impossible to find one at a Division II school. Dugger crammed the stat sheet full and used those elite traits to dominate the opposition. At times, he seems bored with his level of competition, but his engagement can be instant and urgent when it needs to be. He plays with controlled violence and carries an alpha demeanor on the field. He has soft hands and is rangy, but needs to train his eyes and improve his fundamentals before he's coverage-ready. Dugger is a versatile, scheme-friendly safety who helps immediately on special teams and could develop into a talented NFL starter.
Strengths:
--Looked like a man among boys on tape
--All the athletic gifts under the tree have his name on them
--Rare combination of size, speed and explosiveness
--Production galore in high-impact categories
--Plays with instant twitch to pursue tackles or break on throws
--Swoops down to snatch telegraphed passes
--Bodies up to contest downfield throws
--Can be vengeful striker or controlled, wrap-up tackler
--Clear understanding of leverage in pursuit
--Range for high safety and toughness to play in the bo-
--Speed and angles to run the alley and derail or contain outside runs
--Posted six career punt return touchdowns
Weaknesses:
--Must prove production carries over against better competition
--Looked bored at times with idle motor from back-side
--Inconsistent rush to fill downhill
--Bound a little tightly in his hips
--More reactive than instinctive
--Needs to improve footwork fundamentals
--Eyes get hung up on receivers over diagnosing QB's intentions
Haven't looked into it entirely. Just going off a few reports I have seen. It'll be interesting to see how a team uses him.
Here's the title of an interesting article to read for those with access to PFF. I'd post it, but all the graphs would make it a mess. It goes into quite a bit more detail.
Small-school star Kyle Dugger brings uncertainty but has the measurables to take a chance on
I think Dugger's body type gives some the idea that he can be that hybrid safety/LB. Maybe because there are a number of LBs in that 220 lbs. range who are run and hit LBs.
I think he would be miscast as a full-time LB.
You mentioned earlier guys who could play deep, one-high safety and cover the slot too. Possibly Jeremy Chinn, another small school player who is very much an Isaiah Simmon-lite kind of prospect. He does have man coverage ability 6'3", 220 lbs very rangy safety from South East Illinois U. I am uncertain if he's covered the slot though.
Small-school star Kyle Dugger brings uncertainty but has the measurables to take a chance on
By Eric Eager Mar 26, 2020
Kyle Dugger represents an interesting projection. He is a fifth-year senior out of Division II Lenoir Rhyne. In his year-23 season for the Bears, he earned a 76.7 coverage grade, allowing less than 35 percent of passes into his coverage to be complete, while generating an 81.7 run defense grade.
When stepping up in class, though, Dugger struggled a bit in 45 Senior Bowl snaps, allowing two touchdowns in coverage and only generating one stop, after a week in which he forced two incompletions in coverage during one-on-one drills. He followed up this less-than-stellar performance with an impressive showing in Indianapolis, running a 4.49 in the 40-yard dash and producing a 42-inch vertical jump and 134-inch broad jump.
With all of this conflicting information — his age, level of competition, Senior Bowl struggles and Indianapolis exploits — we turn to our college-to-pro projection system, which takes all of these data points into consideration, to project Dugger as an NFL player.
How Dugger Projects as a Coverage Player
Speed and explosiveness are big components of playing well in coverage. As such, we like Dugger here, as he projects similarly in terms of completion percentage against and playmaker rate (rate of interceptions and pass breakups) as LSU’s Grant Delpit, Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield and Iowa’s Geno Stone, with statistical comps like Ricardo Allen and Eric Reid:
Kyle Dugger’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five seasons of his career, in the context-free environment. Vertical dotted lines reflect league median during a player’s first five years at the safety position from 2015-2019.
Unlike some of his contemporaries, though, Dugger is a bigger player at 6-foot-1 and over 215 pounds and played the majority of his snaps either in the box or at slot cornerback. If this is reflected in his projections, the projections get better (and more narrow, given the decrease in uncertainty):
Kyle Dugger’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five seasons of his career, in an environment where 50 percent of his snaps are in the box or at slot corner, with the rest at deep safety. Vertical dotted lines reflect league median during a player’s first five years at the safety position from 2015-2019.
How Dugger Projects as a Pass Rusher
We have less than five snaps of Dugger as a pass rusher during his final year at Lenoir Rhyne, so his projection is going to be a position median-plus-athleticism situation, which again looks favorably at him due to his size-explosiveness combination:
Kyle Dugger’s projected pressure and sack rate during the first five seasons of his career, in the context-free environment.
Dugger’s projected pressure and sack rate are both top five in his class at the safety position, making him the only safety in the top five in both pass defense-related projections.
How Dugger Projects as a Run Defender
While run defense doesn’t matter all that much for safeties, it’s important for players at the position to keep big plays from happening should players get to the second level (see Chiefs star Tyrann Mathieu in the Super Bowl). Dugger projects as an above-average player in this facet of play as well, both for his draft class and among safeties during their first five years in the NFL:
Kyle Dugger’s projected stop rate and rate of positively graded plays versus the run during the first five seasons of his career, in an environment where more than 50 percent of his snaps are in the box or in the slot, and the other 50 percent deep. Vertical dotted lines reflect league median during a player’s first five years at the safety position from 2015-2019.
Dugger’s comps in the run game include Sean Davis, Will Hill, Major Wright and Keith Tandy.
Players like Dugger — and coverage as a facet of play — are very difficult to project, but it’s encouraging for the team that will acquire the former Division II star that he looks like a good all-around prospect. Given the increased variance bestowed upon players with a small sample size against premiere competition, Dugger is probably the best value for a team that already has its five or six starters in the secondary but could use the boost that the tail of Dugger’s distribution affords them, should he become a star.
Thanks bro. I will try and research Chinn. Please share any info you can find. You know I always respect your football takes, even when you are wrong. LOL...........just kidding about the latter part.
I think Dugger's body type gives some the idea that he can be that hybrid safety/LB. Maybe because there are a number of LBs in that 220 lbs. range who are run and hit LBs.
I think he would be miscast as a full-time LB.
You mentioned earlier guys who could play deep, one-high safety and cover the slot too. Possibly Jeremy Chinn, another small school player who is very much an Isaiah Simmon-lite kind of prospect. He does have man coverage ability 6'3", 220 lbs very rangy safety from South East Illinois U. I am uncertain if he's covered the slot though.
Jeremy Chinn was the next prospect that I was going to mention ... good call.
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