DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Outbreak: COVID-19: The Hot Zone

Sarah Buduson
@SarahBuduson
"We're a little flatter in our curve... but we can't become complacent," - @DrAmyActon
on a model showing how we're stretching out the #Ohio peak while we #FlattenTheCurve on #COVID19
https://twitter.com/SarahBuduson/status/1247596061830656000

Some possibly good news from Europe.

It looks like Italy and Spain both may have peaked on new cases. They're still getting plenty each day, and while Spain just dipped below 4,000 for the first time, Italy has been there for the past few days.

Deaths are still up there with both, but that stat kinda lags behind new cases. Perhaps in a couple of weeks, they might actually begin to emerge from the situation where they don't have adequate equipment.



On the down side is France. 1400+ deaths in the last day and more than 11,000 new cases. Despite having a comparable population to Italy, they are on pace to blow right past them in terms of total cases and deaths.... and Italy is already over 17,000 deaths.

Germany is still doing remarkably well and is comparatively unscathed despite having over 100k cases.

j/c:



Only two?!

That's Busch league.

J/C

https://www.yahoo.com/news/says-no-healthy-people-wear-184300796.html

Headline: WHO says there is no need for healthy people to wear face masks, days after the CDC told all Americans to cover their faces



From the article:




So, do we, or don't we? CDC says one thing, WHO says a different thing. Then we're told that masks won't, in the greater community, provide any protection against the virus, but the medical people need to wear them for protection....

We're in a state of who the heck knows WHAT to do?

That's a good point Arch. I think that wearing facemasks will be one of the adjustments we are asked to make as restrictions are lifted. Come May 1, I think many people will be told to get back to work, but wear facemasks and keep distance as much as possible. We won't have school or huge public gatherings this summer, but people will need to get back to work at some point.

The last couple days have brought glimmers of hope.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/cdc-director-downplays-coronavirus-models-says-death-toll-033800213.html

Giant 64 oz. cups!

"Yes, I'd like one chicken quesadilla dinner and two pitchers of margaritas, one taco dinner and two pitchers of margaritas, once bean burrito and two pitchers of margaritas and once chicken enchilada and two pitchers of margaritas."

The state of California, like Ohio, has been knocking it out of the park so far. Specifically LA. Anyone who has symptoms, is a healthcare worker, a critical government worker, a first responder, is over 65, can't go to work because they have been in contact with someone who has the virus, and/or has underlying chronic health conditions can get tested for free at a drive thru testing center throughout the county.

Can someone clarify in a few sentences the plan of releasing prisoners ... I don’t quite get it

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51947802

Actually the CDC didn't make a statement that everyone should wear a mask. What they said is that if you're going to be in a situation that will make social distancing difficult, that wearing a mask is recommended.

The reasoning is that many people who are carrying the virus are asymptomatic. Which means you can be carrying and spreading the virus without even knowing it. Otherwise, it was not a recommended thing to wear a mask.

Oh. Thanks. I was just quoting from the article. Here it is again:

Thanks. I guess the article had it wrong?

To reduce the number of prisoners in a well packed common area. Also to lower the number of inmates per deputy.

My brother works at Mahoning County jail, and they have had so many deputies out that they have had to put the inmates on lockdown, and non of the inmates are complaining.

I'll show you what comes direct from the CDC. Then you can make your own determination of whether the article is wrong......

Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission

CDC continues to study the spread and effects of the novel coronavirus across the United States. [b]We now know from recent studies that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (“asymptomatic”) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (“pre-symptomatic”) can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms. This means that the virus can spread between people interacting in close proximity—for example, speaking, coughing, or sneezing—even if those people are not exhibiting symptoms. In light of this new evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.[/quote]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

It is a much longer article if you would like to read further. But as you can see, it describes almost verbatim what I told you. If you are not going somewhere that social distancing will be difficult, you do not need to wear a mask when you go out in public.

This isn't the political forum. You really need to limit your private nitpicking to that forum.

It figures. I just ordered 50, since they were going to be almost mandatory. Oh well.

That's why I think it's wise to go straight to the source. The CDC instead of trying to weigh third party news agencies and their reports. It's a confusing time with a lot of confusing information.

But most of your average grocery stores aren't built built to allow for social distancing when passing each other in a grocery aisle. And we never know for sure at this juncture how long COVID-19 will be a viable threat. So you may have been wise with your purchase. Only time will tell.

I have a friend of mine that is the daytime barkeep at the local pub. while she is laid off, She is spending her days in the garage on her sewing making making custom masks.. 10 bucks each and Venmo her the money and she ships.

Gotcha thanks ... my best to your brother

Thank you. He works at the jail, his wife is a nurse, and his step daughter works at a nursing home ... so there's a lot of prayers for them in my family.

You need something for the drive home

I'm really upset about the testing and the availability to be tested. This past weekend in Allaince Ohio 4 seniors died from covid 19 that were in a Nursing home. They were elderly in their 80's.. But they still suffered and died. Why?

Because someone who most likely worked there has it and doesn't show the symptoms. When your a care giver you can't follow the 6 foot rule. I'm furious that the only way to get tested if your already sick enough to be admitted to the hospital or be a in the medical field a first res ponder or a millionaire .

People need tested..not having tests is what's killing people. Test everyone..If someone tests positive and has no signs of being I'll then take plasma and do scientific research. Knowing who has it and doesn't is what will help save life's. This waiting til your already about to die to get tested is ridiculous.

Priority to have testing available for everyone should be priority. Innocent people are dying because innocent people carrying this virus who have no symptoms are spreading it. Quarantine some for 14 days that might have a cold .. Really ? Find out by testing to see what they have..Make getting tests available a priority.

j/c...

This site was created by a 17 year old. Pretty impressive. A more detailed Covid-19 tracker...

https://ncov2019.live

It looks like it is just grabbing the data from the worldometers page which is one of the official data sets used for the John's Hopkins site.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


I'd be very leery of trusting the data from any other sources as you have no idea of the validity.

I might be weird and I am sure a lot of you would confirm that...LOL......but, I have been having all kinds of odd thoughts lately.

I am in another room and my wife, who many of you know is in the health care field, was coughing like crazy in bed. It did not sound good. I went into the bedroom to inquire and she said she was fine. But, she is a tough old bird. Really tough.

So, I go back to my man cave and thoughts creep in. This freaking virus is going to claim a lot of us. So, I start prioritizing. Please God..............don't let my children get the virus. Please God, don't let my wife get the virus. Then, I am down to the dogs and me. They are just two years old. So, if the Blanking virus has to take any of us, I have decided that it should take me and leave the rest of my family alone.

I know that is dumb, but those thoughts keep occurring to me.

It's possible Prp, but this kid has been featured in a number of news articles. Here's a video of him on Bloomberg...

I get you. My wife is in much better health than me and was insisting she should be the one that does any shopping or anything outside the home until this is over... I had to convince her that it didn't matter who went because if one of us were to be exposed we both would be. I know she's scared about all of this, worried about me and her aging mother to the point of tears when she dwells on it, so I have been the one going out and I'm doing all I can to make sure she feels safe.

I've seen several APIs made public for COVID-19 research or development. The datasets are out there to be had. The kid built out a user friendly UI and seems to be tapping some of that data. He may have also created python web scrapers to scrape data from state sites and others since his source list reads like a multisource list.

I think a practical approach to face asks is necessary. It won’t hurt and may help.

Just another strategy to bending the curve.

Bending the curve is very important. The numbers without the bend are just terrible.

When (if) we get on the other side of this...
... I will not be making snarky statements re: what each of us looks like when we crawl out from under this.

This pestilence is going to test each and every one of us to the limits of our endurance. It will inform to each of us who we are as individuals... and reveal to each other the depths of our character.

We are not even close to the end of this.

Thanks everyone for your concern / thought / prayers for my father-in-law. He got the results this morning. He does not have covid19 or pneumonia. Unfortunately they do not know what caused his condition to worsen yet, it may simply be a reaction to his cancer treatments and lack of crohns treatments. He's doing much better after getting the IV and oxygen. Hopefully he gets out of the hospital soon.

Good news. Thanks for the update.

Unless he's improving and not as bad as he was, ask them to re-test since there is a 30% false-negative with these tests.

He is improving. His fever has gone down but he still has one. They currently think he has SIRS. My wife is a bit beside herself since he's 7 hours from here, not that she would be able to do anything about it even if she were local. Her sister is keeping her up to date and her dad does text with her.

China will be experiencing its second wave...


https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economict...ow/75039944.cms

China lifts 73-day lockdown of Wuhan amid sharp increase in COVID-19 cases
The Chinese health authority said on Wednesday that 62 new confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Tuesday, including 59 cases of people returning from abroad, taking the total tally to 1,042.

Beijing/Wuhan: Tens of thousands of people in Wuhan, the origin point and epicentre for the coronavirus pandemic, began travelling out of the sprawling city on Wednesday as China lifted its 73-day lockdown, even as the number of fresh COVID-19 cases crossed 1,000 in the country and two new deaths heightened concerns of a rebound in infections.
The Chinese health authority said on Wednesday that 62 new confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Tuesday, including 59 cases of people returning from abroad, taking the total tally to 1,042.

Three new domestic cases were reported, including two in Shandong Province and one in Guangdong Province, the National Health Commission (NHC) said.
Also on Tuesday, 137 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were reported and 1,095 asymptomatic cases were still under medical observation, the NHC said.

Asymptomatic coronavirus cases are those who test positive for the virus but do not show any symptoms and have the potential to cause sporadic clusters of infections.
Two deaths were reported on Tuesday, with one in Shanghai and the other in Hubei Province, taking the overall death toll in the country to 3,333, it said.

On Monday, the NHC reported no deaths for the first time after it began publishing COVID-19 daily reports since January this year.
The overall confirmed cases on the mainland had reached 81,802 by Tuesday, including 1,190 patients still being treated, 77,279 patients discharged after recovery, and 3,333 people died of the disease.

Wednesday is yet another landmark day in China as it lifted about the 73-day lockdown of Wuhan city of 11 million people, ending its painful isolation due to COVID-19 which was first detected there in December last year.
No new confirmed case of coronavirus was reported on Tuesday in Hubei province and its capital Wuhan, but the province recorded one death.
Hubei has so far reported 67,803 confirmed COVID-19 cases in total, including 50,008 in Wuhan.
On January 23, Wuhan declared unprecedented traffic restrictions, including suspending the city's public transport and all outbound flights and trains, in an attempt to contain the epidemic.
The Wuhan lockdown was lifted even as epidemiologists warned that it is not the time to completely lower the guard and ease on full-scale restrictions, considering the looming asymptomatic patients and possible rebound in infections, the official media reported.
As the lockdown was lifted, tens of thousands of people from Wuhan began leaving the city on Wednesday. The government has lifted the ban on road, air and train travel for all the locals who have acquired health certificates.
Cars queued up at expressway toll gates and passengers prepared to board trains to leave Wuhan as the megacity started lifting outbound travel restrictions, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.
At Fuhe toll gate in nothern Wuhan, cars honked and rushed out after barricades were removed at midnight.
Guo Lei, who ran a business in Wuhan, drove his car with six other people aboard to the toll gate at around 8:40 pm (local time) and waited for a homebound trip.
"I can't wait returning to my hometown," said Guo, a native of east China's Shandong Province.
"I have lived in Wuhan for eight years. During the Spring Festival holiday, my relatives came to the city and helped me deliver goods. We were all stranded here due to the epidemic," Guo said.
Big data from Wuhan traffic police forecast the expressways would see the peak of outbound vehicles on Wednesday.
As more enterprises resume their operations, Wuhan has seen an increase of nearly 400,000 vehicles in transit in the past half month, and the number is expected to reach 1.8 million after Wednesday, according to the city's traffic police.
Traffic police will release real-time traffic information through radio stations, online social platforms, and map apps.
At Wuchang Railway Station in the city, 442 passengers jumped on the train K81 early Wednesday, which is heading for Guangzhou, capital of south China's Guangdong Province.
More than 55,000 passengers are expected to leave Wuhan by train on Wednesday, and about 40 per cent of them are going to the Pearl River Delta Region. Over 270 passenger trains will leave Wuhan for Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities, Xinhua report said.
The railway authorities required passengers to scan health codes and have temperatures checked when entering the stations and wear masks to reduce the risks of infection.
Workers have disinfected bullet trains, the entrance and exits, waiting halls and platforms of the railway stations in advance.
Wuhan Tianhe International Airport started resuming domestic passenger flights early Wednesday. The airport is expected to see more than 200 inbound and outbound flights on the day, according to the airport.
"The crew will wear goggles, masks, and gloves throughout the flight," said Guo Binxue, chief attendant of the flight MU2527. The first flight that is scheduled to depart from Wuhan at 7:25 am Wednesday since the city's lockdown was lifted.
"It will be very smooth because we have made much preparation for this flight," Guo said.
Flight attendants would provide masks for passengers if they had fever, cough and other symptoms, and record their personal information and contact history within 14 days, Guo said, adding: "We have simplified the service process to better protect everyone's health".
The central Hubei province has already lifted all the travel restrictions.

A 2nd wave is inevitable.

I don't understand why governments bother continuing to scan temperatures of people.... with the number of asymptomatic people that are contagious, you aren't really stopping anything but what... maybe 1 in 10?

Maybe it's more of a show thing... so that people see *something* being done, even if it is futile.

It will be of interest to me to watch how they respond to the 2nd wave.

Do they allow it to grow larger? Do they go back into full-on lockdown like they were, or will they adopt a more lenient lockdown like we're seeing here in the west?

At this point, they've had two and a half months to prepare for the second wave they MUST know is coming, which should include stockpiling gear... and you know they have it stockpiled now because they've actually been shipping gear out to Italy and the rest of Europe and there's no way they do that if they haven't taken care of their own shortfalls.

Also, what does this mean for the global supply chains? Do they keep themselves running enough for the rest of the world to get the resources they so badly need? Afterall, more than half the problems we're having with things are a direct result of global supply chains being broken.


One thing should be a foregone conclusion: this event should be the deathknell for China as the global manufacturing hub. If nothing else but strategic self-preservation, we MUST secure as many domestic sources of manufacturing as possible.