DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... 28 Days Later: COVID-19

Where did you get that information?

I bet by September that will be closer to 200k than 100k. We could hit 100K before June with the re-openings.

We should hit 50k by end of tomorrow (Thursday).
I don't think we'll hit 100k before June, but I think that by end of June is a legitimate possibility, and depending on how the summer goes and whether or not we get a bit of a reprieve from the warmer weather (I am NOT expecting that) and depending upon how the next wave goes, I think we have every chance to be knocking on the door of 400 or 500k by end of September.

Remember: We have gotten most of our 50k in the last month. It took most of this time to grow and get established. Averaging 35-50k per month might be quite likely, and edging higher with a return to work could bump that higher quite easily. Soooo... maybe we do hit 100k before June?

We flattened the snot out of the curve, but there will be some rebound in that curve as we relax things.

talktomira.com



You can do a Google search and see where an entire town in Cali is going to be tested.

We've been averaging 2.5k deaths per day lately, while edging upward toward 3k per day.

If we sustain that average, we'll be over 100k before the end of May.

Being in a pool of chlorinated water is without a doubt 100 times safer than outside of one.

Chlorine kills the virus....

So 100k by June is likely.

Especially when you consider that deaths lag behind new cases by a week or two, yes. So, even after we see new cases taper off, deaths may still be climbing.... and by the time deaths taper off, new cases may be climbing again from the relaxed measures.

We're entering the cycle.

On skin or other surfaces, yes, it does. Being breathed out of someone’s lungs, no. It won’t do a thing. Kids play in pools. Talk, rough house. Etc. Public pools will not be any kind of a safe haven because of chlorine.

I haven't seen any articles or reports of this myself, but I was recently told by my mom that she saw somewhere that testing at the beaches showed the virus was found in seawater and could wash up on the beach and remain viable there for a period.

Following what we read here in regard to the wastewater tests, this seems entirely plausible and further highlights the dangers of the beaches.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200409/beaches-lakes-pools-is-covid-in-the-water

the whole article is interesting, but this is the section about that.

There is one small way the water might pose a hazard. Kimberly Prather, PhD, director of the NSF Center for Aerosol Impacts on Chemistry of the Environment, says there’s a slim chance that in areas where ocean water mixes with untreated wastewater contaminated by the virus, the churn of the waves could aerosolize it, and wind could carry it back to shore. When raw sewage reaches the ocean, nearby beaches should be closed to swimmers, so the risk would be to people on the sand.

Wow, ok.

I wasn't thinking in terms of sewage leaking into open seawater; I was thinking in terms of if an infected person was swimming.... water gets in their eyes, in their nose, in their mouth. That is directly putting virus in the water..... which can then spread it to anyone else in the water.

j/c...

Timeline of virus’s arrival in the U.S. shifts with the revelation of an early death in California.

The revelation that a death from the virus took place in the United States in early February shifts the understanding of its arrival in this country and changes the picture of what the nation was contending with by the time government officials began taking action.

The first Covid-19 death in the United States had previously been thought to be on Feb. 26 in Seattle, one of the worst-hit cities in the country.

The finding that a death on Feb. 6, in Santa Clara County, Calif., was a result of the virus pushes the time frame of the virus’s spread in this country weeks earlier than was previously known, at least into January and perhaps even earlier, local officials say.

Santa Clara County was one of the first jurisdictions in the country to urge its residents to remain in their homes to slow spread of the virus. On March 16, President Trump issued national guidelines recommending that Americans stop unnecessary travel and avoid bars, restaurants and groups of more than 10 people.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/co...pgtype=Homepage

I wonder how much people are social distancing relatives in their own homes, I see a lot of boyfriend and girlfriends walking shoulder to shoulder, and obviously parents with children need to care for them,

But eating, sleeping, sitting, talking,

in order for there to be spread, there has to be person to person contamination, somehow contact, even if it's from a surface where person b is 20 minutes- or unlimited time to contact a droplet left by person a.

Since we have to assume every person is contaminated, the best way to stop this is to have -0- interpersonal contact for a time long enough for the virus to die out in the people it's already in, without spreading to a new person.

Given this started in January, and they are now talking about a 2nd wave around in flu season this fall, were basically talking 12 months here,
HOW MUCH have assumptions been that 14 day quarantines, or recovered people are no longer contagious, dormant periods before symptoms, or asymptomatic cases,

Is Anyone even considering this virus, which is new, could stay in a person, contagious, for several months?

Well, anyway, my queston is, Are people staying 6 feet away from family in their own homes.

Quite simply, because each member- has a varied sized group of other people they are around,
and so, when you come in contact with one person, even if in our own homes, you then come in contact with every person they have come in contact with, up to that point you meet.

So that, even if folks have not until now been staying 6 feet from the people in their own homes, it would be better if they would start.
Stop all human contact, interaction, is the name of the game.

And while I'm on it. This message board made it clear a week ago that hand sanitizer doesn't work, but the vigorous lathering of hand washing is what works to clear hands of the virus;
yet there hasn't been a prominent enough campaign by officials to tell people STOP hand sanitizing and thinking your hands are clean, because in regards to this virus, you need to wash with soap and water, or other, Alcohol, stuff like that. But Alcohol is almost impossible to come by so, since nobody has it, and it's not for sale, it's moot to even mention.

I don't understand the fear of a death number:(100,000 by June is possible)
if it draws out for a full year, 2 years, 3 years or more, if the number is 4 million, 50, million, 2,billion, worldwide, America, or Me.

The fact that it comes from a virus, is totally different to me than if this were a hoard of people commitiing violence.
Just to point, I don't understand the fear of a number.

I understand the fear of somebody coughing!
but the number? ehh, I just don't think there's any way to stop the spread.
Because if this didn't work, this two week thing didn't work, and it's not going to end until 200-million americans get positive anyway,

in my mind:
Then if 200 million get positive and herd immunity develops and then it's manageable,
and if keeping everybody apart wasn't enough to cause it to die off,
then drawing it out, the end game of herd immunity, for 20 years instead of 2 years, doesn't seem the most efficient.

I'm not saying people should gather in groups of 200 and intentionally spread

If you live with someone you’re sharing the air you breathe in said home. There’s no social distancing that’s going to help in those closed quarters. So at that point it’s about making that group in your home your entire social circle. Accepting that if one gets it, likely all get it. Or at least exposed to it. Chris Cuomo, once positive for the virus, tried to isolate himself in his own home away from his wife. He lived upstairs. Her down stairs. She made food for him and left it on the stairs for him to fetch, etc. She still ended up with the virus. Your home is your circle. Our job is to not ‘touch’ other people’s circles.

Hand sanitizer does work. It’s just not as effective as hand washing. It also can create a false sense of security... “well I used hand sanitizer. I’m safe.” No. You’re not. At least not 100%.
Hand sanitizer is alcohol based. Yes it’s difficult to find. Thankfully some local distilleries are producing alcohol for hand sanitizer purposes for our office’s nurses to use. I have a big squirt bottle of it in my car... which now smells like a distillery. I use it in between hand washing opportunities. Not as a substitute for hand washing.

j/c...

I don't view it as a fear of a number at all. It is simply looking at and projecting what will happen - with the recognition that these are real people with real lives and real families that are going to die.

It's not fear, it's a little bit of empathy (which is mostly completely foreign to me).

I have to disagree, the scenarios that you are suggesting are not very realistic. You are in a pool of chlorinated water. What is in the waters skin and other surfaces and probably your mouth and nose. Now if you want to imagine a couple passionately kissing, I would tend to agree. But being in a chlorinated pool of water is safer than not being in one.

Update, Ohio briefing. 5 minute explanation on dragging their feet on testing. No outline of a plan, no matter how inadequate, or adequate, on testing the non symptomatic.

Sounds like positive news on the testing front. That is critical.

I’m hoping that news is “national” and not just in Ohio ... my hope is they got this info from Cuomo after his meeting at the WH yesterday ... that would mean he was satisfied with the plan they came up with ...

That’’d be great news ... testing should be a huge factor in how we re-open ...

Regardless of what anyone says ... until i feel comfie with the testing ... I’m staying hunkered ... I’m living with my 86 year old mother through this and she’s my sole responsibility ... my brother and his kids that live a block over aren’t allowed near her or me for that matter ...

To much unknown even by the experts at this point ... at least IMO ...

Coronavirus can lead to kidney damage. Why?
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-can-lead-kidney-damage-why-n1187926

A significant number of the sickest coronavirus patients have kidney problems, complicating their treatment and hurting their chances of survival.

Exactly how the virus affects the kidneys — which play a vital role in cleaning the body's blood supply — is still unclear, but experts have theories.

One is that the coronavirus directly attacks the kidneys. A study published in the journal Cell in March showed that the coronavirus infiltrates the body by binding to a type of receptor on cells called ACE2. These special receptors are found not only in cells in the heart and lungs, but also in kidneys.

"ACE2 receptors are essentially docking sites" for the virus, Dr. George Thomas, a nephrologist at the Cleveland Clinic's Glickman Urological and Kidney Institute, said.

But it's also possible that the kidney damage seen in coronavirus patients occurs secondary to the viral infection, because the body is unable to deliver enough oxygen to organs, the president of the National Kidney Association, Dr. Holly Kramer, told NBC News. COVID-19 hits the lungs hard, making it difficult for people's bodies to get the oxygen it needs.

The damage could also be the result of the virus's effects on the blood, which can lead to clots.

Kidneys filter blood through thousands of tiny capillaries, which are highly susceptible to clots.

Blood clotting is most likely an effect of the body's immune system going haywire, raising levels of inflammation in what's called a cytokine storm.

"The cytokines are supposed to attack the virus, but the immune system ends up releasing an overwhelming amount of these cytokines, and they end up attacking our own cells and tissues," Thomas said.

Clogging the body's filter

The main job of the kidney is to clean the blood by removing toxins and extra salt and water from the blood, and adding back what the body does need.

The kidneys are basically "taking out the garbage and putting out the recycling constantly, every single second," Kramer explained. "So if those little capillaries all of a sudden get clogged up, and the blood can't move well, they're not going to be able to filter the blood very well."

Dialysis machines, which work by filtering a person's blood outside the body, are used when a patient's kidney function is poor. But blood from COVID-19 patients is clotting so much, doctors have found, that it's clogging the filters in dialysis machines. As a result, physicians say they must add blood thinners to patients' treatment regimens so the dialysis machines can do their jobs.

Complicating treatment

Reduced kidney function, in turn, complicates how ICU doctors often treat patients with respiratory illnesses.

Studies have shown critically ill patients with lung problems tend to do better if their fluids are kept low.

"The theory behind that is any fluid you give leaks into the lungs and makes oxygen and ventilation worse," Dr. Hugh Cassiere, a pulmonologist and the medical director of Respiratory Care Services at North Shore University Hospital on Long Island, New York, said.

But, he said, when the kidneys aren't working properly, doctors are unable to remove as much fluid because the patients aren't urinating. "So all you're putting in is not coming out, and that could make the lungs worse."

Cassiere estimates 30 percent to 40 percent of the COVID-19 patients on ventilators in his intensive care unit are developing acute kidney problems, a sign of a potentially bad outcome.

"Whenever you're in the intensive care unit, and you develop kidney injury, it's a marker for increased risk of death," Cassiere told NBC News.

An estimated 37 million people in the U.S. have chronic kidney disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

People who are on dialysis and those who have had a kidney transplant have compromised immune systems, and are therefore at greater risk for infections in general. The National Kidney Foundation recommends those patients pay particular attention to guidance for social distancing and hand-washing.

Experts also urge patients to continue with their dialysis and any prescribed medications.

I'm hoping it does become common place on a national level. This was from The Ohio governor's original tweet.

But I'm with you on this one. Better safe than sorry. Living in Tennessee, our state is being less safe about it than most. We live in a county that is right next to Nashville and as such have a fairly high rate of infections in the state.

But my granddaughter pretty much refuses to let my wife and I go anywhere. Her college is shut down so she insists on doing our shopping for us and other than groceries I can get most everything online.

So my situation is much better than most. Stay safe my friend.

Give your granddaughter a hug for me when its safe bro ....

Will do man. Give your mom a hug from me too Bud.

.

One nice thing .... my insurance company is refunding 30% of my auto policy for 2 months. I should have a check by mid-May.

It's not a lot, but every little bit helps.

I’ve seen similar offers from our local agency .. did you have to apply for it or something online?

No. Evidently Erie (my company) is just sending a check because people aren't driving like they had been. It's only going to be $25-$30 in my case, (my monthly premium is only $43) but everything helps.

Check your insurance company's website. If they're also doing this, it'll likely be there.

Geico is doing a 15% discount on renewals.

What kills the virus in the changing room at the pools? What kills it in the restrooms? At the concession stand? All around the outside off the pool? You can bet your ass the kids are not social distancing in or out of the pool. Most kids don't cover their mouth when they sneeze or cough. Many wipe their noses on their sleeve, arm, hand. Have we really got that selfish that kids swimming in a public pool is more important than other folks staying alive?