DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Groundhog Day: COVID-19

So, today is the second day in a row of dramatically lower new case and death rates.

For a couple of weeks, it seems, we had been averaging close to 35,000 new cases each day and anywhere from 2,000 to 2,500 deaths.

Yesterday we had only 26,509 new cases and well under 1,200 deaths.
Today we are right now sitting at less than 21,000 new cases and just a hair over 1,230 deaths.

It's probably too early to get too excited, but this is either a gigantic anomaly, or it's signalling that we're hitting the back side of this. I wish I had graphs for all of the major hotspots to reference, but it *seems* that the numbers are down across all of the harder hit areas.

I'm trying to calm my own excitement as Alaska's been in the single digits for new cases, even a day or two of no new reported cases, but I know that can quickly change.

We have more recovered than active cases. I hope this stays the same.

I want to be physically around our friends again. Phone calls and videochats (especially on limited internet data) aren't the same.

The weather is supposed to warm up here. Sunny in the mid 40s to low 50s by the end of the week. We're going to try and get out to enjoy the sun.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Georgia's numbers have looked really good.

I know it is too soon to know the effects of the reopening of the economy.

We'll know in about 14 days.

I mentioned a day or 2, maybe 3 days ago, that a guy my wife works with was feeling poorly, had a fever, etc. He's still like that, still with a fever. He lives in Michigan........can't get tested.

Found out Sunday that a friend of mine, his 21 year old son, in the army in Germany, had the virus. He appears to be doing better though.

Our county’s numbers have gone up a bit over the last few days, which is a bit concerning ... one of my best friends and my neighbor both tested positive ... so I’m literally not leaving the house

As far as the overall US numbers go, I wouldn't get my hopes up over a positive trend of 2 days. That graph has been bouncing around 30k new daily cases for the past 2-3 weeks. Good that it's not going up, but it's not yet on the backside of the curve. Also, that graph is largely driven by a handful of states (although, even that is flattening out). I had to use the top 5 states to account for half the US daily new cases. Before, half the daily new cases were in the top 2-3 cases... so that's exceptionally good news for NY and similar places.

OH does seem to be on the backside of the curve.

Wife's not happy. She's been working from home and her production hasn't slipped an inch, she's the top performer in her department and has been for several years. But because some 20-30 something coworkers complained about having to answer more incoming calls and carrying her orders from the printer to the production mailbox ten feet away, her office is making her return to work May 4th. The whole reason she was sent home and told to work from home was the fact that I'm high risk. That has not changed. She is livid.

damn.

3 Coronavirus Facts Americans Must Know Before Returning To Work, School

We can’t un-bungle our nation’s COVID-19 response. Political leaders acted too slowly, health agencies committed unforced errors with testing kits and, amid the confusion, an information fog settled over the land.

Americans remain afraid, perplexed and chronically misinformed (despite wall-to-wall coronavirus coverage across the leading cable-news programs and print publications).

To counter the uncertainty, any plan to get us out of the coronavirus crisis must first acknowledge and broadly communicate three immutable, scientific facts.

Fact 1: Staying home saves lives but it doesn’t kill the virus

Weeks of social distancing and self-isolation in the United States have made us all safer. These precautions slowed the spread of COVID-19, thus helping to “flatten the curve.” Doing so buys hospitals and critical care centers enough time to staff up and stock diagnostic tests, protective gear and ventilators.

However, it’s imperative that Americans understand these measures do not eliminate the virus. By staying home (and six feet apart from each other), we did not (and cannot) outlast our opponent.

Whenever we return to our jobs, schools and community gatherings—be it this spring, summer or fall—infections will rise. It’s not a prediction. It’s a biological fact.

To avoid overwhelming critical care services, local reopening strategies must keep a multitude of safety precautions in place, especially those meant to protect the most vulnerable populations. The elderly—and those with chronic illnesses like heart and lung disease—remain at highest risk and therefore must continue to shelter in place. As such, local governments should provide them with food, housing and safe transport as needed.

Fact 2: We’re in this for the long-haul

There’s a bitter paradox brewing in the United States. The spread of COVID-19 has been, and still is, largely predictable based on objective and publicly available data. Yet most people—including Wall Street investors, governors and sports-starved fans—seem unable to comprehend the mathematical realities of a virus that spreads exponentially.

As federal and state officials hammer out plans to reopen the economy, our nation must accept the unfortunate truth that every path forward is booby-trapped.

The coronavirus will persist until there is either (a) a safe vaccine (still 12 to 18 months away) or (b) until there is “herd immunity,” whereby two-thirds of the nation (about 200 million people) must become infected, recover and develop the appropriate antibodies. This, too, will take at least a year.

A theoretical third option, which involves aggressively testing and quarantining all infected individuals, no longer applies. In the United States, that ship sailed in back February when the number of cases soared into the tens of thousands with no way of tracking carriers and their recent contacts. At this point, too many people are infected and too many of the infected show no symptoms, making it impossible to rid the virus through containment.

So, what options do we have? Trump recently announced he is “authorizing each individual governor of each individual state to implement a reopening, and a very powerful reopening, plan of their state.”

This is a dangerous tightrope to walk at the state level. Governors must ensure they don’t ease restrictions too quickly or too slowly.

Reports of increased mental health crises, domestic violence incidents and suicides demonstrate the urgency of getting people out of their houses and back to their normal lives. At the same time, the Spanish Flu of 1918 reminds us that the “second wave” of a virus can prove just as deadly as the first.

Medical requirements for reopening the country must therefore include:

- Limiting exposure, likely for a year. Restaurants and shops should reopen only under three conditions: (1) community hospitals have additional capacity to handle an uptick in demand, (2) all local businesses agree to restrict indoor capacity based on the six-foot rule, and (3) all staff wear masks.

- Making tests free and convenient. Testing for COVID-19 requires the insertion a 6-inch long swab into the back of the nasal passage through one nostril and rotating the swab several times for 15 seconds. It’s a painful process, which is why Americans won’t consent to a reopening strategy that involves daily tests. Nevertheless, local governments need to make testing available at no cost to anyone with COVID-19 symptoms. Those who are confirmed should immediately self-quarantine.

- Helping health officials. In parallel to molecular testing for the disease, our nation must ramp up serological testing, which can identify those that were infected, have since recovered and developed antibodies—thus telling health officials how close we are to herd immunity.

Fact 3: Our nation is ignoring the most important metric

Every day, cable-news chyrons display the latest numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. These figures are eye-popping, but they tell us very little about the relative safety of reopening the country.

That’s why it’s important for all Americans to acquaint themselves with a different, more-informative metric.

R0 (pronounced “R naught”) is a number that indicates the contagiousness of an infectious disease like COVID-19. Specifically, it tells us the average number of unvaccinated (or otherwise vulnerable) people who will contract a disease from one contagious individual.

For example, measles has an R0 of 12 to 18, which means that one infected person will transmit the virus to as many as 18 unprotected people. The R0 for HIV is 4.0 and the seasonal flu is 1.2.

Early data suggests the R0 of COVID-19 is between 2.5 and 3.0. However, the actual number depends not only on the biology of the disease but on the actions people take.

For example, when people observe social distancing and adhere to rigid shelter-in-place measures, the number drops. In the UK, where strict lockdown protocols and frequent testing are in place, the R0 is low (currently estimated to be 0.62). Conversely, the R0 value grows much higher in densely packed conditions including sports arenas, large conferences and events like Mardi Gras.

As explained here, the R0 value shows the potential transmissibility of the disease, and its careful monitoring constitutes both the safest and fastest way for the United States to implement a reopening strategy:

- If R0 is less than 1.0, each infected person transmits the virus to less than one other individual. As a result, the disease incidence will decline and the virus will slowly die out.

- If R0 equals 1.0, each infected person will transmit the virus to one other individual. As a result, the infection rate will remain constant (though the curve will be flat) and there won’t be a future spike (or second wave).

- If R0 is more than 1.0, each infected person will pass the virus onto more than one individual. As such, the number of infected people will rise and the number of individuals needing critical care can quickly surge.

If we want Americans to better understand the relative safety and preparedness of local and regional “reopening” plans, we must base our decisions on this important number.

Facts Save Lives

About 90% of the country has been on some form of lockdown order for several weeks now. People are losing patience. As our nation eagerly eyes the future, we must let science inform our decisions about reopening small businesses, allowing students to return to class and easing social restrictions.

If we move ahead too quickly, we risk losing lives unnecessarily. If we move too slowly, we also risk unnecessary deaths. We can’t allow politics or panic to push our nation too far in either direction. These three facts, based on science, should guide the way.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertpearl/2020/04/21/3-coronavirus-facts/

Not despite, because of.

j/c:

Ohio, Missouri and Iowa are latest states to lift coronavirus restrictions as 83 million Americans begin to see normality return after weeks of shutdown

Ohio, Missouri and Iowa are the latest states to commit to reopening their coronavirus-ravaged economies despite health experts warning that lifting restrictions too soon could result in a new surge of infections.

Ohio will reopen from Friday with non-essential surgeries that don't require an overnight hospital stay. The state's manufacturing, distribution and construction sectors will start to reopen on May 4 and consumer retail and services will start up again on May 12.

Republican Governor Mike DeWine said companies will need to ensure employees and customers are wearing face masks and adhere to social distancing guidelines.

In announcing his 'first steps' to reopening Ohio's economy, Gov DeWine acknowledged that coronavirus was still a threat and said a total reopening on May 1 would be irresponsible.

Day cares, gyms, swimming pools and movie theaters are among those businesses that will stay closed. Restaurants and businesses like barbershops won't reopen for several few weeks.

More:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...urn-normal.html

Obviously, time will tell... but I've become quite the supporter of DeWine over the course of his handling of the pandemic (as I'm sure most are). Dude is absolutely crushing it, in terms of leadership.

I catch at least snippets of his daily press conferences. He 'gets it' too. He understands that while the physical/health portion of the pandemic response (rightfully) gets most of the attention and urgency, there is still the economic portion that needs to be addressed ASAP. He alluded to this when he talked about the people and the govt needing the economy to get running again. The economic problem related to the pandemic response is only going to grow the longer we have to stay away from work.

I have become a DeWine fanboy too. I didn't vote for him last time, but will strongly consider voting for him next time, should he chose to seek another term.

When Kasich was Governor, he amassed this enormous "rainy day fund". (after Ted Strickland famously ran it all the way down to $0.89 in his term) I wondered why Kasich didn't take at least part of it to fix roads and such. I guess I am happy that he didn't .... because Ohio isn't freaking out, because we were prepared for what some thought impossible to prepare for.

I have an employee who was able to take FMLA as his wife is extremely high risk and we work in a hospital. Doc said, "No way he can stay at work and come home to you each night". I believe an organ transplant was involved.

Might be something to chew on...

FMLA is unpaid...

j/c...

Maybe it's the sarcastic ahole in me, but I would have followed up that first tweet with.

"So instead of making retail customers wears masks, we are just going to mandate AND enforce stay at home orders for 30 more days.. How's that for offensive?"

Absolutely

How is wearing a mask offensive? Dewine is crumbling to the lunatic fringe! smh

It’s going to be interesting to see the smoothness in which the states open back up. I know in PA we’re having this done in a Red-Yellow-Green stage every two weeks ... but I mean, even when we get to Green, what are the restrictions? It seems counterproductive to just be like: “Okay, you all can go work out at gyms now ...”

Is it the wearing of the mask that is offensive or the threat of being arrested and thrown in jail for not wearing a mask that is offensive?

The true lunatics are the ones who think thinks like this and measuring and arresting people for surfing by themselves are the true lunatics.

Karen called the other day because she saw people playing basketball and soccer at the park not practicing social distancing. I drove up, watched a dude dunk, saw some guy kicking the ball with his kids, then drove off.

I've said it from the beginning and the data is proving me right: the response has been unjustifiably disproportional to the issue. Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate.

This virus DOES warrant precautions. I've never said different but I can't buy in to something where the death numbers are being artificially inflated and skewed by what's going on in NYC. It's not fair and it's not right that nationwide totals are trotted out to illustrate the severity of the virus, causing our local businesses to close and refuse to allow them to re-open under the threat of a 2nd wave, yet NYC won't shut down the subways and is essentially a breeding ground for the virus.

Well, somehow, this has to fit into the "feel good sad story" category.

Couple together for 73 years dies six hours apart from coronavirus
NEWS
by: CNNwire

Posted: Apr 29, 2020 / 07:40 AM EDT / Updated: Apr 29, 2020 / 07:40 AM EDT

WISCONSIN (CNN) — Mary Kepler and her husband, Wilford, died hours apart after a lifetime together.

The pair was in a Wisconsin hospital after contracting coronavirus, according to CNN affiliate WTMJ. Family members are unsure how the two were infected, the affiliate reported.

But because they both had the disease, they were able to stay together in their last moments — something most coronavirus patients can’t do with their loved ones. Family members across the nation have had to say their final goodbyes over FaceTime or in texts read as overwhelmed medical institutions have restricted visitors to help slow the virus’s spread.

But the couple, who had been together for 73 years, had beds next to each other and got to say “I love you” to each other one last time before they died Saturday, their granddaughter Natalie Lameka told the affiliate.

“They had been holding hands and that was just heartbreaking to hear but also heartwarming to hear,” Lameka said. “And we were just so thankful they were together and were aware they were together,” Lameka said.

The two were like the family’s “glue that holds us together,” their granddaughter said, and while losing them hurts, knowing they never had to part makes the pain a little easier.

“It was definitely hard,” she told the news station. “But it was bittersweet.”

Mary Kepler died six hours after her husband, the affiliate reported.

https://fox8.com/news/couple-married-73-years-dies-six-hours-apart-from-coronavirus/

I asked you this once before with no reply so I'll try again. How many people has your police force actually arrested for violating coronavirus guidelines and rules?

My apologies. I hadn't gone back to catch up on a lot of days worth of posts.

Only a few. But that has more to do with most of us simply refusing to enforce them. Like I mentioned above... drive up, take a look, drive a way. Playing games like basketball or full on soccer matches (which was starting to form up) aren't allowable.

I'm not busting up a pick up game. I'm not going to roll through church parking lots on Sunday morning to make sure every car has an empty space between them and all windows rolled up which is required under our governor's orders.

This 'silent' refusal to enforce the orders isn't our department's position on this. Our official position is that we are 'obligated' to enforce them. My direct supervisors aren't any more comfortable than we are which is why they are fine to let things be. We've only gotten away with it so far because Karen hasn't called to formally complain about the lack of action.

This is either the second time this has happened, or they are re-running a story that is a couple of weeks old, because I distinctly remember seeing this exact situation posted on Facespace because I remember making the joke "I bet he got there first and made her finish alone"

So you are saying that they are telling officers to arrest these people or to warn them and inform them? I mean from a policy standpoint.

I was surprised watching live pd the last couple of weekends how few officers in states like South Carolina and Louisiana are wearing masks or gloves

When we come across a violation our policy is to
a) educate them on the order
b) issue multiple verbal warning
c) contact our attorney before any citations or most likely at that point an arrest is made.

A and B is typically what we do anyway for lower level offenses like trespassing or city ordnance violations.

My dad for the second time in the last 4-5 weeks started running a temp. this time he was wheezing, had a fever of 101.3, blood oxy went down to 91%. First time they didn't test-this time they did and it came back positive this morning.

He is doing better though-fever gone for about 36 hours, eating and drinking and oxygen level up to 94.

Going to be 84 in a few months and has had dementia for about 6 years. All we can do is pray

The nursing home he is in is in northeast Ohio and is getting crushed-between staff and residents, they are probably over 40 cases now

There's a very apparent correlation, based on sound data, on what happens when governors put in shelter in place orders.

Not sure how you can go and say "these numbers mean nothing", but you do you.

So one would have to repeatedly not only violate the orders, but be caught at it several time for even a fine to be a possibility. That's pretty much what I thought. And even then you would have to contact an attorney before doing so.

I wish the best for your dad. Hope everything works out for the best.

With him being a cop, I'm shocked that he thinks common sense would have yielded similar results with the public at large.

There is a correlation, but an undefined one. You can't say with any level of certainty just how effective these measures are. And that's the problem.

You can't prove that if Kohl's opened it's doors and operated the exact same way a grocery store or walmart operates that it is any more of a danger to the public at large.

By that same thought process you also can't say this with any level of certainty..... "Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate."..... yet you did.