DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Groundhog Day: COVID-19

This model is a load of crap.

There is NO WAY AT ALL they are already seeing increases in deaths as a result of relaxation of guidelines. NONE. Those numbers are still weeks off.

Drive-Thru Strip Club Serves Up Sexy (And Safe) Solution For Coronavirus Blues

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/drive-thru-strip-club-coronavirus-130000000.html

God bless this great, amazing country of ours. if you didnt believe it before, yes; we will make a drive-thru ANYTHING in America!

Even more exciting than this is that walmart.com has toilet paper back in stock! (even some of the good stuff!)

Man, it's just in time, too.

For the life of me I still haven't figured out how they came to the conclusion that strip clubs are non essential.

I really need to get crackin on adding a heart emoji to the Like button just for posts like this.

I love Portland.
I don’t go to strip clubs... well, only twice ever. The Devil’s Point was walking distance from my house at the time and they had fire dancers. Cool performances.
In general strip clubs are just not my thing. Alcohol isn’t my vice. Nude women I can’t touch aren’t either. Lol

Their numbers are also based on NO mitigation.

Pfizer, BioNTech begin coronavirus vaccine trial in humans.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/pfizer-biontech-begin-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-in-humans

“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is .... premature relaxation of social distancing,

It's total crap. No relaxation measures can have an outcome, nor a prediction, yet.

They have been making projections based on all models since this virus was spreading on a large scale based on many variables. First we heard 120,000 to up to 240,000. Once social distancing and stay at home orders were in place, that projection dropped to 61,000.

It only stands to reason as those restrictions ease those projections would rise in their numbers. We both know that easing of these restrictions will result in far more deaths. Medical and scientific professionals all pretty much agree with that and they are the only people who have been right abut anything from the very beginning.

The misunderstanding here I believe comes with the wording used. There's a big difference in a prediction and projections. A projection is simply a guess as to what may happen given the information used in the model you you are arriving at your information from. It's nothing more than a guess.

So to a great degree you are right. They are crap. I mean we have sailed right past the projection of 61,000 deaths they stated already.

But this is not a prediction.

One thing on this: "more" is subjective to time. I do not think it will be more, but more for a given time span. I think, and firmly believe, that the overall number of deaths, give or a take a margin of error, will be the same whether we go slow and take two years to get to that number or plow through to herd immunity and get there in six months. When it's all said and done, I think the number will be very much the same one way or the other... the people that are going to die from it are going to die from it. All we change is the timeline on when we hit a certain number. Again, I simply only need look to Sweden for validation of that. Their deaths are nearly triple Ohio's for the same size population, same number of cases and same amount of testing per capita, but they are moving through their curve faster - and have a higher rate of infection among their elderly and nursing home residents. They are on the taller, spikier curve, we're on the flatter, more rounded curve. Same numbers, different rates.

I disagree to an extent. If something is found to mitigate the symptoms in the short term, many who would otherwise have died from the virus can be saved. That would lessen the death toll.

As of now it appears at this early stage that REMDESIVIR seems the most promising.

j/c...

How many people have died because they couldn't get their cancer treatments?
How many will die as hospitals go bankrupt?
How many died because they had life threatening heart attacks and other illnesses but didn't go to the hospital out of fear?
How many elderly died as Governors ordered Nursing homes to accept overflow recovering Corona patients into their facilities?

How hypocritical is it of people to demand essential services stay open, providing their electricity, water, gas, fire service, phone, internet, ambulance and food supply while insisting they must hide away in their basements for months or years on end? Waiting for the day they feel save to come out, as they demand others risk all to tend to their needs?

And of course you come here talking about nothing having to do with the subject at hand. I doubt anyone is surprise by that.

This isn't a place for me to explain these things because most of them have a political answer. Go to the political forum and post this and I will be happy to respond.

"From Yale Epidemiologist, Jonathan Smith:
As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.
This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics.
While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members /very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.
You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk.
Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not.
This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.
You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules.
My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

Jonathan Smith is a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University, School of Public Health.
Shared by Dr. Jerry K Davis, DVM, PhD retired VMO, FDA"

So people dying is now talking points and political to you?

That is why I replied to Purp and look for his input.

We are also discussing the processes of dealing with Covid and the ramifications thereof.

Well it’s economic for you so...

It's the well being of American's and our Nation to me.

Stop deflecting.

I read that a while back. Early or mid-March, I think?
It's all good and perfectly accurate. It also doesn't spell "lockdown" or "shelter in place".

It's a tool in the toolbox. Keep your distance from people, wear masks, wash hands. Otherwise, go about your life.

Only 1 new case in Alaska today, and close to 20+ recoveries since yesterday.

j/c...


Coronavirus: Scientists say a more contagious mutant strain has been sweeping globe
"The story is worrying, as we see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging," the study's authors say.

Alexander Martin
Sky News
Tuesday 5 May 2020 20:51, UK

Scientists say they have identified a mutation in coronavirus which they believe means a more contagious strain has been sweeping Europe and the US - and could even reinfect those who already have antibodies.

Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the US detected 14 mutations in the COVID-19 virus spike proteins, one of which - known as Spike D614G - they said was of "urgent concern".

Their research paper suggests the mutated strain of coronavirus that has become dominant across the world was first indentified in Europe and is different to those which spread early on in the pandemic.

So urgent is the issue that the research paper describing their findings has been made available before being peer-reviewed, although this has caused concern among some observers.

By analysing more than 6,000 genetic sequences of coronavirus samples taken from patients globally, the researchers found the mutated strain was persistently becoming the most dominant version of the virus in every region it was detected in.

While first discovered in Europe in early February, the researchers believe the coronavirus mutation has now become the most prevalent strain across the whole of the world.

The study indicates it has been consistently out-competing the original strain detected in Wuhan, which spread through that region of China and some other Asian countries before March.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-s...and-us-11983554


Here is a CNBC link to the same story that includes the 33 page report published by the Los Alamos National Laboratory:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-coro...tudy-finds.html

And it appears he decided not to address your post as well. Probably for the same reasons I did.

Unless this is a third strain, this isn't new. This is like, late March kinda old

j/c:

This thread seems awfully political.

We try to steer it away from that, and will continue to do so as we try to keep it informative while still having discussions.

There is a fine line between "political" and "policy".
Discussing the merits of an approach/model for dealing with this is not political, though still contentious, and is FAR different than what passes for discussion in the PP thread.

My biggest requirement when first setting down that rule was the need to avoid polluting the threads in here with slams on this politician or that one, or this side, or that side. There is none of THAT in here, and there will not be.

When I wake up in the morning it takes a few seconds to remember what day it is.

Is it Sunday or Monday? Tuesday or Thursday?

I’m bored.

I have been doing a lot of volunteer work to stay active and involved.

j/c...

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

We need to do some work.

We're far from out of the woods.

Interesting that China isn't on that list.

Maybe you missed it?

j/c...

Haircut time!