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The remarkable collapse of Donald Trump's polling numbers

Updated 2:19 PM ET, Wed June 10, 2020

(CNN)One of the defining traits of President Donald Trump's time in office has been the consistency of his poll numbers.

No matter what he said, did or tweeted, his numbers stayed steady. Somewhere between 40-45% approved of the job he was doing while 50-55% disapproved.
Which is why what Gallup reported in its latest tracking poll, released on Wednesday morning, is so striking.
Trump's job approval in the new Gallup data is at 39%, which is bad but not the big story. That big story is the fact that Trump's new numbers represent a double-digit tumble from a Gallup poll just two weeks ago in which his approval stood at 49%.
That's a stunning dip. And it's across the board. He's down 7 points in approval among Republicans and independents and 9 points among Democrats. And it all seems tied to the way in which Trump reacted to the death of George Floyd while in police custody and the protests that have broken out nationwide in its aftermath.

But Gallup's numbers are far from an outlier. The latest CNN poll, released earlier this week, put Trump's approval at 38% -- down from 45% in May. An NPR/PBS/Marist poll put Trump's job approval at 42%. (Those national numbers are reflected in swing state polling too. Recent polls in Ohio, Arizona, Texas and Michigan, among others, show significant problems for Trump in a head-to-head matchup with presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.)
Dig into the CNN poll and there's even more evidence of how Floyd's death and Trump's response to it have hurt Trump. Badly.
More than 4 in 10 voters (42%) said that race relations would be "extremely" important in determining their vote for president in the fall. That's a huge number given that race relations as a or the deciding factor in voters' minds has long trailed things like the economy and health care by large margins. Asked which candidate they trusted more to handle race relations in America, Biden took 63% to 31% for Trump.

What Floyd's death and the ensuing protests have done then is force the conversation about race to the top of lots and lots of peoples' minds who, even a few weeks ago, weren't really thinking about it. And what they've found when they started thinking a lot about it is that Trump is uniquely unsuited to solving a problem like systemic racism.
It's not just that Trump has raised questions about the motives of protesters or that he has insisted that the police need to "dominate" the streets. It's that he has a long history -- dating back to his days as a real estate tycoon -- of questionable behavior and statements when it comes to race.
Consider:
* In the wake of white supremacist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017 that left a counter-protester dead, Trump insisted that "there is blame on both sides."
* Trump mocked the intelligence of LeBron James and CNN's Don Lemon, both of whom are black.
* Trump reportedly asked why the US was allowing in immigrants from "sh*thole countries" in Africa.
* Trump tweeted that four congresswomen of color should "go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came." Three of the four women were born in the United States. The fourth is a naturalized American citizen.
* Trump called the late Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings' (D) majority-black, Baltimore district a "rat and rodent infested mess" and a "very dangerous & filthy place."
* Prior to running for president, Trump championed a conspiracy theory that Barack Obama was not born in the United States and therefore was not eligible to be president.
There's more of this stuff. Lots more. And it all points to a willingness on behalf of Trump to weaponize race when it fits his business or political interests. And he has repeatedly done so with little regard for the ways in which his words and actions -- particularly as president -- influence the ways in which people of color are treated in America.

Trump, seeing the same poll numbers that we are, convened a meeting of his senior campaign staff last week in Washington and is reportedly contemplating a speech aimed at addressing the race issue.
The polling data cited above suggests such an address will not work. Trump is too damaged a messenger on issues of race. Which means that the longer people consider race and race relations as a voting issue, the worse these polls will continue to be for Trump.
His only hope is that the national conversation moves on -- ideally, for him, to better economic numbers following the nationwide coronavirus shutdown.
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REAL CLEAR POLITICS

Latest 2020 General Election Polls
President Polls — National, State | Generic Ballot | Senate Polls | Governor Polls | State of Union Polls | All Election 2020 Polls

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Latest 2020 General Election Polls
President Polls — National, State | Generic Ballot | Senate Polls | Governor Polls | State of Union Polls | All Election 2020 Polls
Wednesday, June 24
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 50, Trump 36 Biden +14
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Trump 46, Biden 48 Biden +2
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham PPP (D) Cunningham 44, Tillis 40 Cunningham +4
North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper PPP (D) Cooper 50, Forest 41 Cooper +9

Tuesday, June 23
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Harvard-Harris Biden 56, Trump 44 Biden +12

Monday, June 22
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R) Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1

Saturday, June 20
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden Gravis Biden 58, Trump 42 Biden +16

Friday, June 19
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Gravis Trump 46, Biden 43 Trump +3
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden St. Anselm Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham Gravis Cunningham 45, Tillis 46 Tillis +1
North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper Gravis Cooper 46, Forest 46 Tie

Thursday, June 18
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden FOX News Biden 50, Trump 38 Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8

Wednesday, June 17
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNBC Biden 51, Trump 41 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 50, Trump 41 Biden +9
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 47, Trump 45 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Trump 45, Biden 47 Biden +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 45, Trump 44 Biden +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden CNBC/Change Research (D) Biden 48, Trump 44 Biden +4

Tuesday, June 16
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
New Mexico: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 53, Trump 39 Biden +14
Florida: Trump vs. Biden TIPP Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden EPIC-MRA Biden 55, Trump 39 Biden +16
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden TIPP Biden 51, Trump 38 Biden +13
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters MRG Peters 36, James 30 Peters +6
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters TIPP Peters 47, James 35 Peters +12
New Mexico Senate - Ronchetti vs. Lujan PPP (D) Lujan 48, Ronchetti 34 Lujan +14

The Hill
GOP: Trump needs a new plan
Alexander Bolton 2 hrs ago
LINK


Republicans say President Trump should make a course correction and shift his strategy after a series of dismal polls showed him badly trailing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

Republican senators thought Trump was cruising to reelection only a few months ago but they now worry his relentless focus on revving up his party's base is hurting his chances, as well as their own of staying in control of the upper chamber.

"I think right now obviously Trump has a problem with the middle of the electorate, with independents, and they're the people who are going to decide a national election," Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said Wednesday.

"I think he can win those back, but it will probably require not only a message that deals with substance and policy, but I think a message that conveys a perhaps different tone," he added.

Asked if the polling showing Trump well behind Biden is a wake-up call, Thune said it's a "message" the White House needs to change its strategy.

"These polls are a snapshot in time and the electorate as we know can be very fluid, but I do think it's a message that there needs to be certainly a change in probably strategy as far as the White House's messaging is concerned," he said.

A New York Times-Siena College poll released Wednesday showed Biden leading Trump by 14 points in a nationwide survey of 1,337 registered voters. Biden's lead was bigger among some key groups. He held a 21-point lead among independents, a 22-point lead among women and a 28-point advantage among white, college-educated voters.

That's a problem for Senate Republicans, who see women and college-educated voters in the suburbs as critical to keeping their majority.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), a counselor to the Senate GOP leadership, said Trump's fortunes have shifted with the coronavirus pandemic.

"Pre-COVID ... I thought the president could carry the day with women and college-educated voters," she said, pointing to the nation's low unemployment and rising wages at the time.

"With high unemployment and the economy shredded by COVID he needed to adjust his message," she said. "That's where he probably began slippage."

"I'm an American woman, I've got three kids and seven grandchildren. I want a message of optimism and hope and that's the measure I think people are looking for," she added. "That's not his A-1 message.

"Capito also said the president should focus on "reinforcing to people where we've made great progress" such as "improving economic conditions, more women in the workforce" and the "funding of universities and colleges.

"Other Senate Republicans acknowledge that Trump's polling raises red flags.

"Does it cause concern? Of course. One always has to understand and recognize the current situation," said Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho).

Asked whether Trump needs to overhaul his political strategy, Crapo responded: "I'm not going to give the president advice on this.

"He also said the political picture could change."Polls are always - whether they are good or bad - always instructive, but I've learned that a poll is taking a pulse in a specific timeframe and they change," he said.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) identified women and college-educated voters early in the election cycle as key to preserving the Senate GOP majority. He said last year that Republicans lost the House in the 2018 midterms because "we got crushed in the suburbs."

"We lost college graduates and women in the suburbs, which led in the House to losses in suburban Kansas City; Oklahoma City; Houston; Dallas; Atlanta; Charleston, S.C.," the GOP leader told reporters last April. "We're determined not to lose women, certainly not by 19 points, and college graduates in our Senate races. And I don't think we will.

"Polling released Wednesday shows that Democrats could again have a massive lead among women and college graduates in an election year where the GOP is defending 23 Senate seats while Democrats only have to protect 12.

Other polls have contributed to the GOP gloom. A Fox News poll earlier this month found Biden leading Trump by 12 points, 50 percent to 38 percent.

A Reuters-Ipsos poll released Wednesday showed that only 37 percent of Americans said they approved of the way Trump has handled the coronavirus crisis, the lowest percentage registered since the poll started asking the question in March. That survey found that 58 percent of respondents disapprove of Trump's pandemic response.

Thune said Wednesday the polling numbers are likely to improve once the election becomes framed more as a choice between Trump and Biden than simply a referendum on Trump, who is getting significantly more media coverage than the presumptive Democratic nominee.

"Right now Biden is getting the benefit of not being covered at all because he's not out there at all," he said.

"And so really right now it's Trump vs. Trump. I don't think that's the choice that probably the White House wants the American people making. I think they want it to be a choice between Biden and Trump and that means they're going to have to get more engaged," he added.

A Senate Republican who requested anonymity to discuss the president's political standing agreed that Trump needs to do more to reach out to independents, women and college-educated voters."Politics is about addition and multiplication. You have to reach out to people," the lawmaker said.

The senator echoed Thune's advice that the president needs to frame the presidential race as a choice between Trump and Biden and not a referendum on Trump.

"If the election is about you, you lose. If the election is about the other guy, you win," the lawmaker said.

But the senator questioned whether Trump has the discipline to keep the focus on Biden and the Democratic Party's policies, saying that Trump "may not have the personality for that to happen."

If last election taught us anything, it's that polls aren't trustworthy.

But they are. Hillary did win the popular vote by 3 mill.

Voter turnout was a different story. Plus, Hillary isn’t running this election.

j/c...

https://www.vox.com/2016/10/18/13311128/polls-trump-clinton-2016-winning

Oct 18, 2016, 1:00pm EDT

The recent presidential election polls have been mixed — but mostly between polls that are good for Hillary Clinton and polls that are fantastic for her.

Clinton now leads Donald Trump in national polling averages by about 7 points, with every recent live interview poll showing her up by between 4 and 12 points.

She continues to hold on to solid leads in a series of states that would put her over the 270 electoral votes she needs to win, and she seems to have taken the lead in even most of the swing states she doesn’t need (like Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada).

New, troubling signs are emerging for Trump in states like Utah, and the Clinton campaign is signaling confidence by making a new push into Arizona and focusing more on down-ballot races.

And every major election forecasting model gives Clinton at least an 87 percent chance of victory.

The election is three weeks away, and there’s still time for the race to tighten somewhat. But we’re getting to the point where, for Trump to win, we’d need either a truly seismic event to transform the campaign or massive systemic polling failure.

Trump is a horrible President.

Biden is a horrible nomination.

This is no sure thing. Biden might not be Hilary - but damn he has some weaknesses and flaws that I expect Trump to exploit in the most un-Presidential way possible.

This election is no sure thing - and Vegas odds are excruciatingly tight, and they are plenty smart.

Instead of reveling in the poll numbers or the impact of CV-19 .... anyone wanting Trump out of office should simply continue to focus and highlight policy and failing after failing and lie after lie that Trump has spewed the last 4 years.

I agree w/most of that.

There are two things at work which are worrying me.

1. Biden is a weak candidate.

2. The insane desire to alienate the white middle class and elderly voters. This makes absolutely no sense to me. These people vote more than any other group and some people are alienating them? I was hoping that they would learn their lesson after the 2016 election, but it's only gotten worse.

I'm worried that we are going to be stuck w/the disgusting antics of Trump for four more years.

See Fate's post below. She was supposed to win swing states she needed and possibly swing states she didn't need. She was supposed to wipe the floor with him.

Yea and she didn’t cause she couldn’t bother to show up there.

I wanted someone else to be the nominee, but I can’t sit here and act like Biden is gonna make the same mistakes Hillary made.

Especially when he’s got the Obama team behind him.

Broadly speaking - Hilary was despised by the 'Right' as much as Trump is currently despised by the 'Left'. Thinking that Biden elicits the same response as Hilary would be a mistake in my opinion. . . I also think there are going to be a large number of fringe Trump supporters who voted for him hoping that he was going to morph into something other than who he was and is ... I think he's going to lose a lot of those folks. Whether they vote for Biden or simply don't vote I don't know.

I think Trump's base is not going to waver and he could literally shot someone on 5th avenue in cold blood and they would vote for him .. or a better example, he could pervert the rule of law, the justice process and have the DOJ act like his personal clean up crew, and Trump faithful could care less. At this point there are probably as many 'never Trumpers' as his base .... and the election will be won or lost by people's perception of how strong or weak Biden is and if he can put together a message that resonates. Trump didn't do anything (imo) to MAGA .... but it was a catchy piece of marketing propaganda that people could feel good about - Biden better have a message and a platform or he will lose.

With all the angles brought up, I’m glad you mentioned a good one:

There’s a chance a % of conservatives give trump the Romney treatment and simply not show up.

Biden doesn’t even have to show his face. Trump is self destructing on live tv and social media, so all Biden has to do is get out of the way.

Hillary would’ve messed it up already.

Hillary = Byner

Absolutely spot on. If Biden doesn't make hay with the bulk of those who actually vote, he's in big trouble because he is a weak candidate.

When Hillary ran the Democrats made a huge mistake. They chose a candidate who had been under attack by the GOP for a very long time. She had been investigated and accused of a lot of things. A long shadow had been cast over her character for years. It was the worst possible scenario in terms of electability.

There were yet other variables. We heard many people say such things as "We need an outsider as president. No more career politicians." We heard that Trump's brashness and name calling like a petulant child was his "campaign mode" and "he will be different if he were elected president". Then there was the "We need a businessman in charge". Not even checking Trump's actual business record or understanding the fact that a family business is more of a dictatorship than the way a corporate structure is conducted.

Now people have three and a half years of evidence to base their 2020 decision on.

That by no means makes it a slam dunk. We have already seen the Trump administration try to bribe Ukraine into a fake investigation into the Bidens after they had already determined there was nothing there to investigate. We are currently witnessing Trump setting the stage that if he loses it will not be a legitimate election. Never underestimate the power of lies and deception.

Many of those who voted for him in 2016 now see who he really is. They have watched him propagate his lies, deception and division throughout his entire term to this point. They "know who he is".

The popular vote was NEVER intended to elect the President thought, it was only meant to be a "recommendation" to the appointed electors in the Electoral College. the electors are NOT required to vote on the popular vote and they should NEVER be required either.

The "Deal" the People made between the government and the people when enacting our Constitution was as follows:

1. "The People" would ELECT the House of Representatives
2. "The States" would APPOINT The Senate Senators
3. "The Electoral College" would SELECT the President (using popular vote recommendation but not required)

On April 8th of 1913 this great balance we were able to maintain in our government was "severely upset" by passage of the 17th amendment making Senators elected on public vote. The Individual States are "no longer represented" now and were in turn turned into vassals instead of partners.

What the States want and what the people want are often much different. The people were already represented in the House, there was no reason to take the appointment of Senators away from the states, the people already elected their State Legislatures.

We have many clowns in our Senate both Republician and Democrat that would NOT be there if Senators were still appointed by the States.

We need to repeal the 17th Amendment and give the States back their representation...the People have their popular vote representation in the House, the States should have their appointed rep in the Senate, and keep the electoral college...We just might be able to restore some sense of sanity to our government by setting things right again.

I wonder when they wrote that if they ever envisioned millions of votes being ignored? I kind of doubt it.

Even if I wanted to, I can't argue with anything you or mgh are saying. I just cringe now whenever someone points to polls.

Some people just have a problem with understanding the concept of the common denominator.

Fate, your poll was from Oct 18; Comey came out and said that they were going to look at Clintons e-mails about a week later. I think that made some people change their mind on who gets their vote. And the fact that Clinton basically thought she had the midwest in the bag and didn't need to visit.

there still is a bunch of time left until the election and some questions to be answered-
What is going to be the October surprise? an announcement on a vaccine a couple weeks before the election, another surprise investigation, a new car for everybody

Who is Biden going to pick for his VP? Should be late July

Is he going to have team Obama behind him? Is Barack going to come out and say he will work in the WH if Biden wins?

But still this is a state by state contest and it seems every national poll that comes out Biden ticks up a little bit and now states like Texas and Iowa are in play. Nate Silver said that an incumbent normally doesn't make up more than 3-4 points and the map is getting tougher for trump and seems to be trending a very little bit towards a Biden landslide. But the polls will change some


And trump seems to be taking the GOP senators down some too. Too bad, other than Romney, none of them had a backbone for 3 and a half years and now they are going to run away from a sinking ship

One thing that a lot of people don't seem to talk about when discussing the reasons why someone won or lost is that a lot of the folks in the groups you and I are talking about have one extremely important question: "Who is going to pay for it?" It's echoed over and over and over again w/almost every person from that huge voting group. The response to that question is a disgruntled bark of a laugh and then followed by "we both know who is going to pay for it." It's because we pay for everything for the entitled folks from both ends of the economic scale.

I truly believe that while many folks despise Trump's character, they are more frightened by those who want to steal their money to support programs that they don't believe in. Some may think that work ethic, honesty, and earning your keep isn't important anymore, but a whole lot of folks who vote still believe in those principals.

Take a look at the ideas being discussed on how to deal with wealth distribution. LOL bro, the groups we are talking about won't ever support that. It goes against almost everything we believe in.

The one other thing I want to comment on something that was brought up earlier. It was said that some people might not show-up to vote for Trump. I think there is some validity to that. While my father, mother, and myself were all Dems and more liberal in our thinking.......my brother is a conservative. Has been since he was in college. I was talking to him on the phone the other night and he said he couldn't vote for Trump. I'm sure there are more like him.

I don't have any idea on who wins the election, but I have a feeling that families like ours are going to lose either way. And it pains me to say this, but my family will certainly be hurt much more if Biden wins the election than if Trump wins the election because it comes back to "Who is going to pay for it?"

Yes, actually THEY DID! This was by design.

The Founders were quite clear they ABHOR even the thought of Democracy. The USA was never intended to be a Democracy, it was a "Representative-Republic" and they wanted "All 3 parts" of the nation to have equal representation.

The House = The People
The Senate = The States
the Electoral College = political parties/government

All 3 parts were equally represented until 1913 when this balance was severely upset and the sanity in our government that we were able to maintain was lost.




What you see going on today in our government is the direct result of "the People" having too much power. the founders knew from Europe that the newspapers were very powerful in swaying public opinion, so our Constitution corrected the msitakes of the European Government by only allowing the people to elect the House of Representatives.

This meant the Senate, the President, and the Courts would NOT be bound over to the passions of public opinion. the road to hell is always paved with the best intentions.

The people in this nation should only be able to elect the House of Representatives and that is it...that's more then enough power for the people as the House can block any legislation that is attempted, The States and their legislature are the proxy representation for the Senate, and States can lean on their Senators on confirming judges, vote for one we don't like, we will remove you and replace you with someone else...

We had a perfect system in place and we have ruined it over the years.

I feel those who honestly believe that the forefathers of our nation had the power to see into the future to a nation with 50 states and over 300,000,000 people where a president could be elected by getting almost 3,000,000 less votes would have to think they were much like Nostradamus.

Same goes for the second amendment. As if they could see into the future to a time when weapons would evolve to the point you could fire off a hundred rounds in a matter of seconds.

“that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth”

Obviously you think Lincoln had it wrong.

j/c

Ex-GOP presidential candidate Carly Fiorina says she'll vote for Biden over Trump

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/carly-fiori...9_8vLy6IHHUoBt8

What's your point? She lost her ass by the method that matters. She knew the track for winning and she deliberately chose not to campaign in certain states. Her message didn't sell with the American people either, much like Biden's doesn't.

Have fun again this November, Trump will be your president again.

Biden's seem to be selling pretty well right now. You haven't been paying attention again have you?

According to who?

Every poll in America by double digits. I know you will resort to "electoral college blah, blah, blah" But that doesn't change the facts that you're wrong about the message selling to the American people. The people are measured by the number of people, not the electoral college.

It's time for all of you to man up and admit you do not represent "most" Americans.

j/c...

A lot can change over the next several months and I wouldn't count my eggs yet from either side, but these are poor polling numbers for an incumbent president.





https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new...ge-is-slipping/

Trump is done.

Spoken for truth. Not only Bolton but many true conservatives ... oh and this week there was the very conservative Former Deputy Attorney General Donald Ayer on record as saying: "I am here because I believe that William Barr poses the greatest threat in my lifetime to our rule of law and to public trust in it. That is because he does not believe in its core principle; that no person is above the law."

Apparently all these conservatives are part of the deep state. smdh.

Yes - a lot can change. Most especially when the candidate Trump faces is as weak and, lets face it, unpredictable, as Biden. There's literally a lifetime in politics to go before Nov.

On that we all should be able to agree,,,

As I recall, hitlery was polling way ahead of Trump in the summer of 2016. Those poll numbers will change once biden is forced to show his mental acuity in a debate. Biden is only polling high because he hasn't made a public appearance in months. Oddly enough, hitlery did the same thing.

When that happens...Biden is done!