DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Covid-19: It Continues

Not sure if this is relevant or not, but I do remember we were talking about this when the whole COVID thing was kicking off. The "Death%" number was wrong before because it was a simple deaths/#ofcases number, which is misleading, especially when you have a large proportion of new cases that haven't resolved yet. This artificially pushed that death% down because a large portion of the denominator are still sick and haven't died or gotten better yet. A true % is # of deaths divided by total number of resolved cases (people who either died or got better). Unfortunately, we haven't been keeping a good track of people who have gotten better.

I think maybe they are taking the total cases divided by the number of deaths. The issue is that if you look at the numbers they have number of cases number of deaths and number of recovered. The number of total cases minus recovered minus deaths typically equals several hundred thousand.

Those hundreds of thousands represent those who are still in the hospital neither recovered nor dead. That can really skew the percentages. Average length of hospitalization at my hospital is 7-8 days and that includes people who don't even get any supplemental oxygen ( why they get admitted I don't understand) so most who should be hospitalized average closer to 10 days. The ones who dies spend closer to 2 weeks or longer.

I've been wondering about this. Are people being hospitalized unnecessarily? Is that what you are alluding to?

There are always a few unnecessary admissions with any disease process. This applies to chest pain that is non cardiac related, cellulitis, or any number of things. And really, if you aren't sure the safer thing is to go ahead and admit them. For a lot of patients it is a fine line, so that is what is in the best interest of the patient. Then add in what a litigious society we live in and if there is any doubt you just admit them.

As for the Covid patient in particular, a patient comes to the hospital because he/she feels short of breath. Their oxygen saturations are fine on room air. They have recently tested positive for the virus. What do you do? The vast majority of those patients will be fine. A substantial number will come back in 4-7 days and need to be admitted.

So you tell that patient to go home, get a pulse ox from the local pharmacy and come back if it gets below 92%

Now that patient, who may be 70 or older, tells you he feels too bad to go home. He is weak and lives alone and doesn't think he would be safe. Now what do you do? You admit them. They aren't really that sick but you can't send them home without a safe disposition. In a couple days most are feeling better and go home.

Makes sense. Thanks.

Sad to say, at this point a lot of people just don't care. Too much news coverage, press conferences, warnings, it becomes routine and not important anymore.

Just same old same old, the message is lost. If you say something is serious every time, it quickly becomes not serious or important. It becomes "oh, this again?"

I am happy to report that my brother has now also tested negative, after a moderate bout with this disease.

The bad news is that it's back to work with him tomorrow.

Glad to hear YTown.

And if it couldn’t get any worse for the south and southeast, we are going to be running into what is supposed to be a robust hurricane season starting pretty much now thru September.
What do emergency planners do with evacuation orders if 3-4 days from landfall you have a cat 1 or 2 but computer models show a possibility of strengthening to a major hurricane at landfall. Do you evacuate or shelter in place.
Will the Red Cross get the volunteers they need or will the group of 50 and 60 year olds rather not risk getting sick?

Alex Trebek with wise words.

j/c:

I was talking to my kids this weekend and while I hate to admit this, I am going to share because I wonder if this attitude might be growing among a lot of people.

Most of you know that they both tested positive. Most of you know that they are both okay now. What you don't know is they were talking about how they wonder if things are being overblown because they didn't think their side-effects/symptoms were any big deal.

This worries me because I wonder if they won't be nearly as cautious as before? I wonder if others are feeling the same way? I wonder if this will add to the problems we already face?

Deaths over 1000 today for the first time since May. Texas, California, Arizona and Florida make up about half of the people who passed today

I think we are seeing it now. We shut down. People hoarded items. People aren't as scared or as cautious.



Just because we have opened up, for good reason, doesn't mean the coast is clear.

Bro, first I'm glad your kids are alright. That said, I hope they are taking it more serious for your sake. Don't need to hear you or the Mrs. have it next...

Follow the money.
Also, it boosts the numbers.

I guess the Alex Trebek video didn't work for you.

Maybe this Paul Rudd video will do it for you.

Why would anyone trust the words and ideas of an actor, or TV host, more than any other man on the street?

When you've got people on here believing conspiracy theories, rejecting the advice of trained medical professionals, and believing the virus was manufactured and escaped from China...what else are we supposed to share to help others reconsider what they think...?

So .... you expect them to believe medical advice from an actor or a TV game shoe host?

They don't believe the medical experts. Worth a shot, I guess.

People voted for a man for President who lived his life off of grifting uneducated Americans. So as oober said, Ytown...it's worth a shot.

Actors, stars, and such told people how to vote in the last election. How'd that work out for you?

He won an election as an actor, star, and one who endorses sexual assault.

Worked out well for him, right?

All I'm saying is that when Hollywood types start playing "I'm smarter than you", it obviously has an adverse effect. Nothing more.

The current President is a hollywood type who ran on a grifting platform of "I'm smarter than the experts", "look at my Christianity while ignoring my claims of endorsing sexual assault", and "I'm not racist but ignore the lawsuits where it showed I factually discriminated against minorities".

So once again, you can have your opinions but the facts of our reality is that people will listen to types like him.

These were made as a joke... Last Week Tonight on Conspiracy Theories...

Ah, shows what I get for only watching the 1st few seconds.

j/c

Hopefully since the death count went over 1000 yesterday, maybe that will help convince people to be safe and that it's not a hoax. But for some reason I doubt it.

It won't. They doubt the numbers. They won't believe it until it directly effects them or a loved one.

Posting this again because I don't think anyone read any of my previous posts.

This is the best visualization of the data I have found.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualiz...08o1bMLIv8G4V0c

Being that Florida, California and Texas are some of the hot spots right now, I wonder if weather doesn't have some effect on the spread.

When NY was having it's rise, people in the South were still enjoying the nice weather outdoors. Now it's 95 with 99% humidity, we start gathering indoors at this time of year, A/Cs are running non-stop circulating air, etc, making the spread easier.

Around here, July and August are our normal time people miss work for being sick.

Interesting observation

This board is full of ignorant posts, but this one made me stop and think. I'm not saying you are right, but the AC thing makes a lot of sense to me.

I appreciate those that think outside the box.

Air conditioning has been known to be a spreader for some time now. I can recall reading about this case months ago.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020

... From January 26 through February 10, 2020, an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVD-19) affected 10 persons from 3 families (families A–C) who had eaten at the same air-conditioned restaurant in Guangzhou, China. One of the families had just traveled from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. We performed a detailed investigation that linked these 10 cases together....

It makes total sense.

Up north, people hang out indoors during the winter. Down here in the south, come July through mid September, you don't want to go outside where it is 96, heavy humidity most every day and the sun beating down on your head.

The answer seems simple, require masks on our air conditioners.

Even simpler... don’t go into air conditioned public spaces and take off your mask. Or just don’t go at all. Order take out. Grocery shop online. Etc.
Wear your mask. Wash your hands. Stay home. Stay safe.

Something like this perhaps...
https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/july-2020/07142020ren-covid-filter

I was picturing something a bit more absurd. Picture a row of roof top units with giant human face masks on them.

I'm waiting for folks to start complaining about furnace and AC filters making them sick. I mean hey they trap some nasty stuff in them. Maybe they should take off their masks (that they don't wont to wear) and sit around their house with no filters on their ac units or furnaces as well.