DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump

Maverick Modeler Helmut Norpoth Predicts Another Win for Trump

August 3, 2020

Political scientist Helmut Norpoth fields media calls every week seeking comment on the upcoming presidential election. Why the interest? In 2016, he was one of a handful of experts who correctly predicted the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election.

Norpoth, a professor in Stony Brook’s Department of Political Science, has enjoyed notable success forecasting elections based on his Primary Model, a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races based on data going back more than a century.

In 2020, his model once again projects a Trump victory, giving the incumbent President a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide — a controversial call that runs contrary to current polls.

The Primary Model has correctly predicted five of the past six presidential elections, and when applied to previous elections, correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27, missing only the 2000 election in which George W. Bush defeated Al Gore and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon — two extremely close and contested votes marred by allegations of voting inaccuracies.

Norpoth began working on his model after the 1992 presidential election, putting it to the test for the first time in 1996.

“My first forecast was the 1996 election, the one where Bill Clinton was re-elected for a second term,” he said. “Predicting a Clinton win was considered a stretch at the time because he was pretty bad in his first term.”

Norpoth, who has been at Stony Brook since 1979, correctly predicted Clinton’s win using a very simple early version of his model. He would expand the model in the years to come, an ongoing evolution that continues to this day. But one key metric that was apparent to Norpoth even in the early stages — the importance of early presidential primaries — remains a critical part of the Primary Model.

After the 2008 election, in which Barack Obama won the nomination and then the election despite failing to win the New Hampshire primary, Norpoth expanded the range of primaries to include the South Carolina primary as well.

“But that’s it,” said Norpoth. “I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests. It’s a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what’s going to happen in November.”

He described the focus on primaries as the key difference between his model and others.

“It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated,” he said. “I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll.”

Unlike many other projections, Norpoth’s equation ignores approval ratings.

“That’s a poll number,” he said, “and I don’t use those. I think the primary performance of a sitting president is usually a proxy for that. But I don’t use any polling data or data related to opinions.”

Web1copy
Norpoth’s model predicts a Trump landslide in the Electoral College.
In light of this information, Norpoth said he wasn’t surprised that his model gave Trump a very strong chance at a second term.

“When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes, and the closest challenger was Bill Weld at 10 percent, I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict,” he said. “If Trump had gotten only 55 percent and an opponent had gotten 40 percent, I may not have predicted that Donald Trump would have a chance to win. Maybe. It would depend on the other side as well.”

As for the Democrats, Norpoth said that the sheer number of candidates and the inability of any one of them to get off to a fast start may have doomed the party from the start.

“People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” said Norpoth. “He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”

So was there anything any of the Democrats could have done this year to get in a better position, or was it Donald Trump’s election to win or lose?

“What the Democrats should have done if they were really serious about beating Trump would have been to rally around one candidate right from the start and not have a protracted battle in which people get wounded,” Norpoth said. “They needed to pick one person and have everybody else take a pass. That’s the only way I could see that my model would have worked in their favor.”

Norpoth, who has studied election primaries going back to 1912, is confident of the math behind his model. While some might suspect that unusual circumstances — e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic and the civil unrest in the wake of the George Floyd killing — might have an unpredictable effect on the election results, Norpoth said those crises have no bearing on his projection.

“My prediction is what I call ‘unconditional final,’” he said. “It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in. I can add in the results of more primaries, but even those numbers have happened and can’t change either.”

Norpoth also scoffed when asked to comment on the argument that the Trump presidency has been widely described as being “unlike any previous presidency.”

Donald Trump
Former U.S. President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden congratulate U.S. President Donald Trump on the day of his inauguration. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
“Every president is unique, and I think people get a little carried away with that description,” he said. “Obama was the first Black president. Is that not unique? If Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, she would have been the first woman president. Is that not unique? I grant that Trump is in many ways a very special kind of character, but I think we also tend to exaggerate that.”

One model change Norpoth has made for the upcoming election has been to focus on the Electoral College.

“Now I predict straight to the Electoral College,” he said. “I’ve never done that before, but I made an adjustment because of the mismatch we had in 2016, and I’m prepared to see Trump lose the popular vote again. So this prediction is entirely about the electoral votes.”

Norpoth said that while he manages not to get emotionally connected to these projections, the reactions to his projections sometimes do take an emotional toll.

“I get a lot of reactions, and I get a lot of mail,” he said. “Some of the comments are unprintable. I do get backlash, and I get it from people whose opinions I value, people who are friends. And I can tell that some people find it difficult. So there is an emotional part that goes on.”

But at the core, said Norpoth, it’s just math.

“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” he concluded. “It seems crazy. But it’s not.”

Twenty-five of the last 27 U.S presidential elections can vouch for that.

— Robert Emproto

https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff...-win-for-trump/

Shhhhhhhhhh.

Don't tell the Libs.

It could easily happen. I'd hate to see the state of the USA under another 4 years of this divisive, hateful Trump administration.

Normally I don't think either party makes THAT much difference in the grand scheme of things. Clinton had the economy booming, both Bush's did fine, Obama had the economy strong again after the financial disaster he inherited..... but I think Trump could really end the USA as a world force.

Oooooo 40, you want to make a prediction?

I don't own a Helmut.

Just a red MAGA hat.

He likes to make bold predictions and talk in absolutes. . . but then runs if someone wants to make a wager. I think that's 40 - or is it one of the other die hard Trump supporters who is always talking like it's a done deal until Rocket chimes in?

Still waiting on tasty of 40 to take me up on my wager.

j/c:

Not sure why "wagers" are important, but I can see Trump winning. I think the Dems missed a golden opportunity. Trump is a freaking moron and the Dems/blacks could have chose to try to preach unity. Instead, they went on the attack and have blasted the country, white society, the flag, and cooperation.

I think that a lot of folks still believe in law and order. They believe in acting civil. They do not believe in defacing monuments, looting, rioting, burning our cities, and calling people racists and Nazis and then expecting them to vote for you.

I can see Trump losing because of how the majority of media and entertainers are against him. I can also see him losing because he's a jerk. On the other hand, I think a lot of voters see him as less dangerous than BLM, higher taxes, wealth distribution, reparations, rioters, looters, criminals, etc.

Y'all blew it. Once again.

Maybe stop referencing my posts without replying to me - or not. I don't mind, but I do notice.

I should amend that statement. Saying you blew it is probably incorrect strictly in a literal sense. Trump might still lose, so that would not be "blowing it." However, I don't think this election would even be close if the Dems would have taken advice from people like me and took the high road. I don't think the riots have helped. I don't think all the hate has helped. I don't think sport's leagues protesting has helped. In fact, I think all of those things have lost more voters than they have gained.

Ignorance fueled by selfishness, indignation, and lack of logic, reasonableness, and collaboration. You reap what you sow.

I don't want to put words in your mouth --- did you just insinuate that if the Democratic Party listened to you, and others that think like you, then they would win the next election easily?

i love being called "the blacks." yea, thats really gonna make me listen to anyone lmao.

when will the jews learn!!!

imma start using "the whites". we're about two post away from being called "the coloreds"

You don't want to learn. You have proven that. Btw, your two lapdogs attacked me for defending the Jews.

It amazes me that you guys think that the way to win votes is to attack the very people you want to vote for you. It's incredibly stupid and self-destructive.

Keep hating.

I would straighten you out but I'm busy watching the Black Panther movie.

Never saw it, it's pretty good.

we've gained way more support than lost.

incase you haven't noticed, we literally had people around the world protesting in support of us.

i don't want you to vote for me, seeing as i'm not running for any office. but ok bro lmfao

I don't know what this has to do with actual voting.

Have they asked the octopus yet? No, they do that the week of the election.

edit: I was responding about he Norpoth prediction, I hadn't read the last 7-9 posts back and forth.

Bro, I know you don't like me talking to you this way, but I can't help it and mean no ill will. I have two kids right around your age. I've always liked you even when I didn't [if that makes any sense] and have tried to mentor you because I admired your intelligence and passion. So here it is:

Yes, you have gained more support. But, from whom? Do you really think that those people are going to be there for the long-term? Do you really think that it's wise to alienate those who supported you when it wasn't popular to do so?

Damn bro! It's not the quantity of friends. It's the quality of friends.

I don't expect my message to have any influence w/you or others. So, everyone can save the snide comments. But, I did want to get my feelings out there about this.

I think it is huge mistake for the oppressed to turn their backs on long-time supporters and put their faith on new converts.

Some folks do things because it's trending. Others, do things because it is the right thing to do.

how many times do i have to say this?

stop speaking to me as if i ever wanted you to "mentor" me. i'm a grown ass man. i deployed 4 freaking times. i have my own wife and my own kids. what the hell makes you think you have any sort of influence or ability to "mentor" me?

you were running the streets at 19. at 19, i was already in afghanistan.

that's what you don't get, and never seem to get. i've seen real world crap, i grew up in the hood. i've traveled the world. i've seen the best of the best and the worst of the worst, and worked alongside people across all political spectrums of life.

i don't give two crap what age your kids are. IM NOT YOURE FREAKING KID.

once you realize that and stop speaking to me as if i'm one of your kids or students, maybe there wouldn't be so much beef between us.

but i won't hold my breath.

we gained more support from people who matter. and why would i care about support, or lack thereof, from guys like you?

seriously. why?

you don't start ANY of these movements. you didn't help fuel them, either by support and/or donations.

you're just another guy who comes out of nowhere trying to tell people how they should or shouldn't protest. as if you have any credibility to say as such. but thats the beauty of america, isn't it?

you're ability to jump out of the rafters and give "Advice" to a movement when literally no one asked you for it.

if we did things your way, we'd be waiting another 40 years before anything changed. hell, if we did things your way, we'd probably still be waiting for our first black president, because analyzing all of your post since the protest started, all you seem to do is preach the status quo:

bow down to massah and hope those in charge develop a heart.

nah, we're good. but thanks anyway.

Got it.

So, back to the thread topic. I can certainly see Trump winning because of just how one-sided the Dems and blacks are in American society. I think they are alienating a ton of voters who believe in law and order, work ethic, cooperation, etc.

nah bro, you DON'T get it.

since you wanna talk, lets talk.

lets talk about how gullible you're being with your support for trump right now. bro you're married to a freaking latino.

it doesn't even matter if she's mexican, puerto rican, cuban, or anything else. you think trump cares? hell, do you think trump even KNOWS the difference?

this man trashes, insults, demeans, degrades -whatever adjective you want to use - people like YOUR wife. people like MY mom. he calls them all kinds of names, and look what you do:

decide you're gonna vote for that? bro you're literally the white Ted cruz. this man is insulting your wife's heritage and you're literally asking Trump for 4 more years of it.

my wife would leave me in a heartbeat if i EVER supported somebody who constantly referred to germans as nazis. my mother would stop speaking to me if i EVER supported someone who trashed puerto ricans.

you're aligning yourself with racist people around this country who tell latinos to constantly go back to their countries just because they speak spanish.

you're such a disappointment.

I was going to leave it alone.
When two posts ago your come at Vers.



Which I thought sounds a lot like you. Mirror much.
But then, you post this one ^, and literally prove my point, you can't have it both ways.

Complain if someone trys to tell you how, or what to think.
yet you want to come back and literally try and tell people how to think.

i didn't tell him how he should think. i just let him know i think its lame.

i've said over and over again he can say and think whatever he wants.

and i can clown him for it.

Yeah, well I am a grown-ass man who actually did grow up in a real hood. I had to fight blacks and Puerto Ricans on a daily basis. I lived in a home w/out heat for over two months. I have two grown-ass kids who I raised. I coached and taught in the hood. I have a wife who had it far worse than I did and experienced sexual things that most of y'all wanna ignore. I've also listened to a ton of older folks in my life in order to try and learn from them. A lot of those dudes were older black dudes, and I still try and start conversations w/them to this day. Wanna know why? Because I think one can always learn and false pride is a freaking weakness.

So, when you disrespect me by telling me that me wanting to help you is BS, I take it for what the f... it is. You think you are too smart to learn from someone w/more experience? Fine!

I ain't the typical white boy, Swish. I paid my freaking dues. I was always a fighter, but I learned the hard way that it is better to beat people w/intelligence, logic, reason, and a sound plan that pure passion alone. I try to pass that on to others so they don't have to take all the freaking knots on the head like I did. It's up to them if they wanna listen or not.

I don't claim to know it all. Far from it. But, I do know some things. And again, I ain't asking you to listen and understand why you would not. But, it's hard for me to let go of people I believe in.

And bro, I ain't gonna PM you and ask you to fight like I used to. Hell, I can hardly keep my balance since the surgery. I probably couldn't even kick my own ass right now. But, I won't give up.

now i feel bad for yelling at the physically disabled.

you and YTown need to start a gofund me for yall medical bills. good lord.

I would never ask for a dime. Ever!!!

I'm gonna kick this things ass!!! Trust me on that one!!!

please do.

and i mean that. beat that crap.

Thanks dawg. I will. Guarantee it.

Well, not guarantee it.........but, F... the damn C.

It's a model prediction from someone who is famous because his method has proved correct more times than not. That's the reason he's of interest and people write articles about him.

I'd rely more on this guy's prediction than regular polls.

I love to listen to Mr White

Professor Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted elections since 1984, says Biden will win
Savannah Behrmann
USA TODAY
Published 8:16pm ET Aug. 5th 2020, Updated 9:30aam ET Aug. 6th 2020

WASHINGTON – American University Professor Allan Lichtman, who is well-known for accurately predicting American presidential elections, says former Vice President Joe Biden will beat President Donald Trump in the November election.

Lichtman, a political historian who has correctly predicted the outcomes of all presidential elections since 1984, with an asterisk, was one of the few forecasters who projected in 2016 Trump would become the 45th president while also correctly predicting Trump would be impeached as president.

He uses a "13 key factors" system he designed to decide who will emerge victorious. It includes factors like the advantage of incumbency, long and short-term economic figures, scandals, social unrest, and more.

"The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House," Lichtman stated Wednesday in a New York Times video op-ed.

Lichtman believes it will be a close election, predicting with his system that seven of the keys swing towards Biden, while six favor Trump.

According to Lichtman, Trump has an advantage with being the incumbent as well as not facing a serious primary challenger, nor a serious third party candidate. These are some things that hurt former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, Lichtman predicted then, pointing to Gary Johnson's third-party run and the fact she wasn't an incumbent.

And just how the Democrats' failures in the 2014 midterm elections may have impacted the nation contest in 2016, Lichtman predicts GOP losing the House of Representatives in 2018 could have the same negative effect for Trump.

The Republicans' loss of the House not only gives Trump a zero in that category, but it also leads to losing another key: dealing with scandal, which includes his impeachment, "plus plenty of other scandals," Lichtman states.

Lichtman also pointed to the massive social unrest erupting around the country through protests against racial injustice following the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor as a factor to potentially help Biden.

"There has been enough social unrest on the streets with enough violence to threaten the social order," Lichtman said.

The professor also swung both long and short-term economic impacts towards Biden following economic collapse due to the coronavirus, explaining, "The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false" to helping Trump.

Lichtman also labeled both Biden and Trump as not having the advantage of being charismatic, deeming Biden the "uncharismatic challenger" while saying Trump is a "great showman, but only appeals to a narrow slice of the American people."

The professor said Trump's candidacy made 2016 "the most difficult election to assess" since beginning his predictions.

He also said “there are forces at play outside the keys” in 2020, including potential voter suppression and possible meddling from foreign countries, including Russia.

Lichtman claims to have accurately predicted the winner of every presidential contest since Ronald Reagan's reelection in 1984. While he predicted former Vice President Al Gore would win the election in 2000, he stands by his projection, stating Gore won the popular vote while former President George W. Bush won the electoral college after the Supreme Court ruling.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli...ump/3304680001/

One of the ones made in China?

It's odd how predictions vary. Maybe you should have started your own thread about it?