DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus General Election news, The blue wave edition.

Please continue..... The blue wave is coming.

https://wina.com/news/064460-new-poll-shows-another-potential-blue-wave-in-november/

A new Christopher Newport University Wason Center poll finds Democrats – energized by continued backlash to President Trump — are poised for another “blue wave” in this coming November’s congressional elections. Poll Assistant Director Rachel Bitecofer says historically, the party in power as President has not fared well in midterms. But Bitecofer says this poll’s data shows “the question is no longer whether there is a blue wave coming, but rather how high the storm surge will get”.

More Democrats — at 60% — than Republicans — at 45% — are “very enthusiastic” about voting in November. Voters prefer Democrats 45-to-33% on the generic ballot, and want Democrats to control Congress after the election by a 51-to-38% margin. Bitecofer says the data shows incumbent Republicans who seem most imperiled to lose seats are Dave Brat in the 7th District and Barbara Comstock in the 10th.

The same poll also detects how Virginia voters feel about the investigation of the Trump campaign and possible Russian collusion interfering in the 2016 election. The poll finds 50% believe individuals in the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government, while 42% said they do not believe any coordination happened.

There’s a huge partisan split in the collusion question. Eighty-one percent of Democrats believe there is collusion while 81% of Republicans reject that it’s happened. The poll finds Independents are split down the middle.

Bro did you see that wild ass interview trump gave on Fox News yesterday?

If conservatives think the riots are helping trump, trump is trying to hand momentum right back to Biden lmao holy crap.

Lmao I can’t. I just can’t anymore hahahahahahahahaha

And just when you thought this man was off his rocker, here’s another one:



That’s right devil. You guys choke like in golf tournaments hahahahahahahhahaha

Yeah. Lol....trump chokes on explaining his choke comment. Really poor choice of words when talking about killer cops. They choke? They’re chokers? Geez trump opens his mouth and inserts his foot every time

Anyone that thinks this is some sort of certainty is totally, utterly delusional. And promoting this election as some sort of foregone conclusion in the media, to friends, on the internet only goes to make the problem worse.

Exactly which problem are you talking about again?

I am saying that promoting the idea that a Blue Wave is coming is false. Trump can easily win this election. Promoting this idea that the election is a done deal simply promotes people to think they don't have to vote.

MyBookie.com - Trump is the -140 to +125 favorite to win the election.

Michael Moore says it.

- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/29/michael-moore-donald-trump-repeat-2016-warning

I think there is a ton of logic to think Trump should lose by a landslide. The reality is Trump is probably going to win the debates because when he's mean and confrontational and derisive, he is at his best and his supporters will lap it up.

I could honestly see Biden winning the popular vote by double the gap that Hilary did - and still lose all those key states and lose the election.

I am not in favor of ever promoting this thing as a done deal. It helps nothing.

Whatever. blue wave is coming. Democrats are more energized than ever. Voting turn out will be off the charts. Citizens are registering to vote by the millions. More registered voters than any other time in US history. More republicans announce they are voting blue.

j/c...

Tough time reading.

Now I definitely believe his niece when she said somebody took the SATs for him.

Also, I hate that our two choices is between two dudes who’s dentures keep falling out of their mouths when they speak.

If this was anybody else but trump I’d say they were drunk as a skunk. But he doesn’t drink. And now everybody knows he can’t read. And by looking at his tweets everybody knows he can’t write either. What’s left? Oh yea Arithmetic. Multiple bankruptcies answers that question stable genius....not can’t read, write, and do Arithmetic. He would have been called the village idiot in any other life.

j/c

And let's not forget about his suggestion that members of the deep state were in the FDA are slowing down covid vaccine trials.

Trump says without proof that FDA 'deep state' slowing COVID trials

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healt...s-idUSKBN25I0LF

And they try to push the narrative that Biden is slow.

I see what you mean and agree. We on the left can not let our guard down and should focus on issues that make the election a referendum on Trump. Regardless of what the polls say, we can't get over confident that Biden will win and take the foot off Trump's neck before November 3rd. FYI: Trump, as of this morning, leads in polls in ohio by 5 points.

j/c...

Trump has slipped among key groups that backed him in 2016
By David Lauter Washington Bureau Chief
Sep. 1, 2020 3 AM

WASHINGTON —

President Trump’s support has eroded among key groups of voters who backed him in 2016 — a major reason why he continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden and a prime motivator for the president’s reelection strategy of emphasizing violent disorder in the nation’s cities.

Trump’s decline among parts of his 2016 base is a chief finding so far from the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which tracked voter preferences daily four years ago and is doing so again this year. Overall, Trump has lost support from about 9% of voters who backed him in 2016, the poll finds.

The poll shows no major shift in the race during the last two weeks, belying much speculation that the back-to-back national political conventions and violence in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., might have changed what has been an unusually stable contest.

During the Democratic convention, Biden gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 2 points; Trump then regained some of that ground during his convention, a week-by-week comparison of the poll’s tracking shows.

The net result is a Biden lead of 11 points, 52% to 41%, in the poll’s latest results as of Monday, after the Republican convention. A rolling average of results over the last week has been virtually the same, 53% to 41%.

“Independents who lean toward the Republican Party seem to have been temporarily swayed by Biden’s message” during the Democratic convention, said Jill Darling, the survey director for the USC Dornsife poll. That widened Biden’s lead for a bit. But “Trump’s dark view of the Democrats’ agenda seems to have swept them back into the fold, so the overall result is pretty much a wash.”

Biden’s lead is almost double the 6-point lead that the poll showed for Hillary Clinton at this point four years ago. Clinton was then on a downward track, declining from the large boost she had received from her convention.

That comparison to four years ago is based on an adjusted version of the 2016 USC Dornsife survey. The poll significantly overstated Trump’s support. It showed him leading by October when, in fact, he lost the nationwide vote to Clinton by more than 2 percentage points.

An analysis after the election showed that the poll, which tracks the views of a panel of more than 8,000 eligible voters, had over-represented rural Americans, a group who ended up leaning heavily toward Trump. The 6-point lead for Clinton represents her margin at this point four years ago once the poll was re-weighted to fix that mistake.

Another big difference from four years ago: Third-party candidates get only 2% support now, much less than in 2016, when smaller parties took 5% of the vote.

While a record number of Americans — perhaps as many as 150 million — are expected to vote in this fall’s elections, the vast majority already have made up their minds. Over the next two months, the two sides will pour huge amounts of time and money into maximizing turnout among their supporters. At the same time, they’ll battle over the small slice of the electorate that remains up for grabs.

The poll’s findings help pinpoint who those wavering voters are — mostly independents, who are closely divided between Biden and Trump, and less partisan Republicans who may have supported Trump in the past, but have soured on him since.

Democrats and independents who lean Democratic have largely consolidated behind Biden, the poll finds.

Democrats and their allies have tried to win over swing voters by stressing Trump’s failure to control COVID-19 and the personality traits — belligerence, lack of empathy and flouting of traditional norms for presidential behavior — that many of those voters dislike.

Trump has countered with dire warnings about violence in American cities and thinly veiled appeals to racial prejudice, especially tied to white fears of Black families moving into predominantly white suburbs. He has depicted Biden as a “puppet” of “radical Democrats.”

Analysis of which voters Trump has lost since 2016 provides insight into the problem his reelection campaign faces. Because the USC Dornsife panel includes many people who responded to the poll in 2016, its findings provide direct evidence of which voters have changed their minds.

Although Trump has lost about 9% of his 2016 voters, about 4% of those who voted for Clinton now say they will vote for Trump.

That gives Trump a net loss of 5 percentage points, which may not seem a big number, but sets up a high hurdle for an incumbent who barely eked out victory four years ago, winning by less than 1 point in each of the three states that put him over the top.

“You can’t lose 9% or 10% of the people who voted for you last time” and still win, said Bob Shrum, the director of USC Center for the Political Future, which co-sponsors the poll, and a veteran Democratic strategist. “If that holds, it would be catastrophic for him.”

The Trump campaign hopes to make up its losses by spurring turnout among conservative white voters who did not cast ballots in the last election. That’s possible — states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan have large numbers of such voters. So far, however, it isn’t happening, the poll indicates: Among people who did not vote in 2016, because they either chose not to or weren’t old enough, Biden leads 52% to 34%.

Several groups have moved away from Trump:

Among people of color who cast ballots for Trump in 2016, nearly 1-in-5 now say they back Biden, the poll found. Among Latinos, about 1 in 4 say they will vote for Trump this year, down from more than 3 in 10 last time.

Among voters who live in rural areas — Trump’s stronghold — his vote among men has remained stable but has slipped by around 10 points among women.

Trump still has a large advantage among white voters without college degrees — his core group of supporters — but his lead has shrunk. In 2016, the poll found Trump leading among that group by roughly 40 percentage points. Now it’s about 25 points.

Among whites with college degrees, meanwhile, Biden has established a significant lead. In 2016, the poll found Trump and Clinton virtually even among whites with college degrees. This year, Biden leads, 54% to 41%.

Many of those college-educated voters live in suburban areas, where voters turned heavily against the Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. The poll shows that happening again.

In 2016, Trump and Clinton battled roughly to a draw in the suburbs. He had a large edge among white suburban men, which offset her lead among suburban voters of color; white women were closely divided.

This time around, white suburban men are more closely divided, Biden has kept the large Democratic lead among suburban voters of color, and he also leads among white, suburban women, the poll finds.

The result: a significant Biden lead among suburban voters: 53% to 40%.

Trump has sought to turn around that suburban deficit by stressing a “law and order” message. He has depicted the Democrats as an enemy to police and incapable of keeping Americans safe.

Biden has rebutted that by stressing the dangers Trump has caused, both in mishandling the COVID-19 pandemic and in stirring up sometimes violent disorder. In a speech Monday in Pittsburgh, he said Trump “sows chaos rather than providing order.”

The USC Dornsife poll, a joint project of the university’s Center for Economic and Social Research and the Center for the Political Future, surveys each panel member every 14 days. The current results are based on responses from 5,106 panel members.

The poll asks respondents to use a 0-to-100 scale to give the likelihood that they would support Trump or Biden. It also asks them on a separate 0-to-100 scale to give the likelihood that they will vote. Using those numbers, the poll calculates the probability of each person voting for the candidate.

In theory, because that approach uses information from all voters surveyed, it should provide a more complete look at the electorate than other polls that give people a choice between candidates but then count only the group of respondents who are deemed likely to vote.

Separately, the poll also asks respondents how they believe friends, neighbors and other people in their social circles will vote. That question shows a smaller Biden lead, 50% to 45%.

The closer result on the question about friends and neighbors could be evidence of a hidden Trump vote — people who won’t say on a poll that they’re voting for Trump, but will tell their friends. But other explanations are also possible, including that some Democrats, still stung by the upset result in 2016, simply overestimate the number of people who will vote for Trump.

As with other polls, the results are weighted so that the respondents accurately reflect Census figures for demographic characteristics including gender, race and education. The estimated error range for the poll’s full sample is roughly 1 percentage point in either direction. A complete description of the poll’s methodology, along with the text of the questions asked and the full data tables, is available on the USC Dornsife website.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-09-01/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-backed-him-2016

I threw 20 bucks in there!!

I love that he said that. It's a great way to motivate people to get out and vote.

General REsponse to ^ this post. mgh888- you may be the only one from your side to have treated me fairly, so I consider you a person of reason.

GC. Take the politics out of it, take , let me back up.

I was hearing Rush Limbaugh show, and the story is some democrat has said, don't be surprised if Trump wins big on election night, but in the next days---s after the election the democrats come back and change the results, through mail in counting, and Biden wins.

Well, let's take the politics out of it.

Let's presume it's a pie eating contest, and umm, or a "chili tates better contest" and let's forget politics, let's pretend it's the Republicans that want to tell me the result is going to change 2 weeks after voting day.

Anybody who is trying to cheat, Anybody who is trying to use false, fake, ballot flooding, to win

Would certainly, PREFER
to do it """AFTER"" the original count of the votes,

Because then you'd know EXACTLY how many FAKE VOTES are needed to win the election in your favor.

So even, if it were a flippin CHILI TASTE VOTE, anybody who isn't trying to cheat is just going to want to count the votes, (because they know they have the best tasting chili)

But if your chili tastes awful, and one side intends to cheat! Even if it were the Republicans, which it is not,

Any side intending to cheat in the count,
UNDOUBTEDLY, would have an easier job of cheating,

if they are allowed to start adding the fake votes,
AFTER the actual votes are counted,

AND! It's important, to wait until the original count is in, because if not, then the fake ballots might not be enough to change the result!

But! If you know EXACTLY how many fake ballots put your candidate ahead you don't have to waste any extra energy forging more fake ballots than you need.

To the end, that any, ANY side, in ANY election that intends to RELY MOSTLY on some count that occurs AFTER the original election day or count,

Can be considered to be "most likely" cheating.

So what Limbaugh actually means if when all the mail in votes are counted, Biden may win.

Anybody think it's funny, (I do,)

That no time in history we can't just turn on a network like
NBC, and maybe at 9pm eastern time, we can't have something like
"America's got Talent" Poll, (NationWide, Maine to Hawaii)

text 30--- if you are going to vote for One Side
and Text 3-0-- if you are going to vote for the other side,

And then we could have an actual poll that America could see the results of, Before the election.

VERY PECULIER INDEED.

I would consider Micheal Moore as a Michgander insider (what's good for the michi-goose, is good for the michi-gander...)
And he probably has insdide information that Michigan is going to be very close, again, it was very close in 2016.

I think he's probably basing it on that. You want to know whats going to happen.
Well don't take my word for it, go to 270-- and look for yourself, top internet result for looking at state president election results.

But it's pretty clear. Now, let me preface,
The Democrats, are going to challenge a couple states, because that's what they do, we just don't know where they intend to cheat, whether it's "Florida" or Georgia and Florida" or "North Carolina" or "Ohio" or somewhere else.

Here's the deal, it's a 4 state race.
State Electoral votes for that state.

Minnesota, 10
Wisconsin, 10
Michigan, 16
Pennsylvania, 20

And in that, Biden needs 36 to tie, 269-269,

Now if the Democrats Cheat-]
Florida 29
Georgia 16
North Carolina 15
Ohio 18

or somewhere else, the resulting "swing" of negative for Trump, Positive for Biden would be double the number and likely give Biden the win.

If Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin go for Trump, it would be much harder for Biden to cheat to change the results "enough" to get a Biden win.

And if you feel I'm full of crap, spend 4 hours at 270--- looking at each states history and see for yourself, (it's pretty freakin obvious.)

News last night.
Court orders state of Georgia (16) to hold mail in ballot counting until 3 days after the election.

News, later. State of Georgia to appeal the court order that they not count mail in ballots until 3 days after the election, includes something about if they are postmarked by Nov, 3rd.

I love that GOPers are quoting him and sharing his dire warning!

Me too

Your consideration of me as a person of reason would be argued against vehemently by many Trump supporters on this board! But glad YOU are smart enough & perceptive enough to appreciate my thoughtful and logical communication skills!!

As for the cheating. . . I am sure Rush L sounds very convincing and persuasive. He is very good at what he does. I don't believe there is mass cheating or voter fraud. . To repeat (again) Trump hand picked a panel to look into voter fraud and found nothing. Zip. Nada. . . It is a fear monger tactic only. Period.

As I said - Trump can win this election easily. As someone said. Michael Moore probably has a really good feel for what's happening in MI. He probably sees a strong support for Trump still .... can see that the polls mean jack, ddidly squat ...

Having said that - and to put forward a solid argument why Biden could easily win and the Dems might control the Senate and Congress:

1. Hilary was absolutely hated by the Right, providing motivation to vote - and at the same time she did very little to motivate the Dems to vote. Biden doesn't come with that baggage, no matter how hard Trump tries.
2. Hilary ran a putrid campaign - was hated - and still won the popular vote.
3. Many true Republicans didn't like Trump particularly but thought he might change and become more 'Presidential' when elected ... there are many, many that either won't vote for him again or will vote for Biden. Just look at high profile GOPers coming out for Biden because they feel Trump is a danger to the US.
4. Biden has the Black communities vote on a level that Hilary didn't.

Let's face it - we've had 4 years of Trump running a simply chaotic administration. He's no longer perceived as this maverick business 'genius' who is going to shape up Washington and surround himself with brilliant (only the best) people. . . . he's hired and fired a bunch of people and turned on so many that he himself appointed. He's got a handful of faithful lackeys and Bill Barr as his henchman who has politicized the DOJ. The idea that Trump might not "be the Trump we know" has gone.

His base aren't going to leave him - but his base is not even 30% of the country. There is AT LEAST 30% of the country that would vote for a turnip over Trump, just because the turnip 'isn't Trump'.

So - I don't think there is going to be Mass voter fraud and cheating. Although yes, you are going to hear that from Trump if he loses because being a victim is exactly what he does best. And while I think the election is going to be very close, I can see a lot of logic why it should be a landslide loss for Trump.

Pence says he doesn't 'recall' being put on standby during Trump Walter Reed visit

https://thehill.com/homenews/administrat...ng-trump-walter

Lmao and here we go!!!!

First, let’s be clear: I don’t wish physical illness on trump and I’m glad he recovered from the strokes, if that’s what occurred.

However, anybody notice that NY times never actually said what the reason was for the visit? Trump decided to state that it was mini strokes on Twitter. So now everyone is saying a stroke..because that’s what trump claimed.

And with that, the greatness word for a politician ever: I don’t recall.

Pence could’ve easily said that it never happened. Or simply say it’s fake news.

For all the talk of Biden’s health, let’s see the conservatives practice what they preach and start questioning trumps health.

Biden looks healthier then trump by a long shot. Plus he isn’t carrying 30 pounds of chicken fat in his belly.

Jesus...

May be, But I wouldn't ask him to explain what you just said in his own words in two sentences or less.

"Covid has taken this year, just since the outbreak, more than 100 years..."

j/c...

New Fox News Poll.

Niles Edward Francis
@NilesGApol

THREAD: New Fox News polls in three swing states...(1/x)

Arizona
Biden: 49%
Trump: 40%

Wisconsin
Biden: 50%
Trump: 42%

North Carolina
Biden: 50%
Trump: 46%

Niles Edward Francis
@NilesGApol
SENATE RACE POLLS (2/x)

#AZSen
Kelly (D): 56%
McSally (R-inc): 39%

#NCSen
Cunningham (D): 48%
Tillis (R-inc): 42%

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1301279466644213760

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/f...s-in-key-states

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Wednesday, September 02, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.

Obama was at 48% on this date in 2012.

Whenever all the other polls look bad, dig up Rasmussen. Good luck in November 40. Every Dem I know is going to vote early.

Trump encourages North Carolina residents to vote twice to test mail-in system

The president said it would be a way to check whether anti-fraud efforts are "as good as they say."

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump suggested that people in North Carolina should vote twice in the November election, once by mail and once in person, escalating his attempts to cast confusion and doubt on the validity of the results.

"So let them send it in and let them go vote, and if their system's as good as they say it is, then obviously they won't be able to vote. If it isn't tabulated, they'll be able to vote," Trump said when asked whether he has confidence in the mail-in system in North Carolina, a battleground state.

"If it's as good as they say it is, then obviously they won't be able to vote. If it isn't tabulated, they'll be able to vote. So that's the way it is. And that's what they should do," he said.

It is illegal to vote more than once in an election.

Trump has made countless false statements about the security of voting by mail ahead of the election as much of the country braces for an increase of voters who opt for mail-in ballots during the coronavirus pandemic.

The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee have sued states that have moved to expand access to mail-in voting in response to the pandemic, including Nevada, New Jersey and Montana.

"President Trump encourages supporters to vote absentee-by-mail early, and then show up in person at the polls or the local registrar to verify that their vote has already been counted," Trump campaign official Tim Murtaugh said. "It’s amazing that the media can go from insisting that voter fraud doesn’t exist to screaming about it when President Trump points out the giant holes in the Democrats’ voting schemes.”

Despite Trump's claims that mail-in ballots lead to widespread fraud that benefits Democrats, there is no clear evidence that suggests that either party gains an advantage with mail-in voting.

Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, requested absentee ballots to vote in the Florida primary this year.

A Washington Post analysis estimates that at least 83 percent of Americans are eligible to vote by mail this fall.

"I don't like that," Trump responded when a reporter told him that 600,000 voters in North Carolina could vote absentee.

Asked about Trump's comments during an interview later Wednesday on CNN, Attorney General William Barr argued that a 2005 bipartisan report on election reform found that mail-in voting is "fraught with the risk of fraud and coercion."

Asked why there have been no findings, however, of widespread fraud, Barr responded, "We haven't had the kind of widespread use of mail-in ballots that's being proposed."

Barr said he was unaware of the specific laws in North Carolina, and he did not respond directly to questions about Trump's earlier comments.

Trump made similar claims about mail-in ballots during his 2016 campaign, essentially encouraging his supporters to commit voter fraud.

At a rally in Colorado just days before he was elected, Trump told supporters to obtain new ballots because "do you think those [mail-in] ballots are properly counted?"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-el...system-n1239140

Sarah Huckabee Sanders says Trump told her to go to North Korea and take 'one for the team' after Kim Jong Un winked at her

President Donald Trump told Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a former White House press secretary, to go to North Korea and take one "for the team" after Kim Jong Un appeared to wink at her during a summit in 2018, she said in a new book.

In her memoir, a copy of which was obtained by The Guardian, Sanders described an incident at the summit in Singapore with Trump, Kim, and a collection of their aides.

She said in the book, set to be released next Tuesday, that during a session of talks, Kim "reluctantly" accepted a Tic Tac mint from Trump, who "dramatically blew into the air to reassure Kim it was just a breath mint" and not poison.

The pair then talked about sports, including women's soccer, at which point Sanders looked up "to notice Kim staring at me," she said, according to The Guardian.

"We made direct eye contact and Kim nodded and appeared to wink at me," she wrote. "I was stunned. I quickly looked down and continued taking notes."

She added: "All I could think was, 'What just happened? Surely Kim Jong Un did not just mark me!?'"

The former press secretary said that later, in the presidential limousine, she told Trump and John Kelly, who was then his chief of staff, about the incident.

"Kim Jong Un hit on you!" Trump said, according to Sanders. "He did! He f---ing hit on you!"

Sanders replied, "Sir, please stop."

"Well, Sarah, that settles it. You're going to North Korea and taking one for the team!" Trump told her, Sanders said. "Your husband and kids will miss you, but you'll be a hero to your country!"

Trump and Kelly then "howled with laughter," Sanders said.

Trump was initially hostile toward Kim, using a speech at the United Nations in 2017 to nickname him "Rocket Man" and threatening military action against North Korea if its government did not stop its nuclear-weapon development.

But the pair have since enjoyed a warm relationship, with both leaders praising each other extensively.

The Singapore summit was the first of their three meetings during Trump's presidency. They met again in February 2019 and then at the Demilitarized Zone in June 2019, when Trump became the first sitting US president to set foot in North Korea.

Trump said at a rally in September 2018 that he and Kim "fell in love" and that the North Korean leader had written him "beautiful letters."

The veteran journalist Bob Woodward's second book on Trump, "Rage," due to be released on September 15, describes the content of the letters and says that Kim said his relationship with Trump was out of a "fantasy film."

https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-sarah-sanders-one-for-team-kim-jong-un-2020-9

Funny how in a bunch of years there ain't been one poll that didn't show the democrat way out ahead,
But how did those states vote in the past.

Conservative state voters switched for 2 reasons in the past.

1. Clinton, Carter and LBJ were seen as One of us, by Southerners or Midwesterners against the Establishment.

2. The Republican candidate was a liberal RINO with less charisma than the democrat, Dole, Romney, and McCain.

Which reason is present this time?
Answer, neither.