DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Everything Else... Covid-19: Again

Please be true.

This one sounds very promising.

The Hill... Fake News.


JK..(above)


Would be awesome if this report is true and viable.

This would be wonderful!

My first thought as well.

So we've topped 200K deaths now. So freaking sad.

Well not really. I mean most of those people had preexisting conditions. Right?

j/c

Coronavirus cases grow in more than half of U.S. states pushing nationwide number higher

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are beginning to rebound following weeks of reported declines after a peak over the summer.

New cases were growing by 5% or more, based on a seven-day average to smooth out the reporting, in 29 states and Washington D.C. as of Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Nationwide, daily coronavirus cases have grown nearly 20% compared with a week ago, moving above 43,300 new cases on average.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/coronavirus-cases-grow-in-more-than-half-of-us-states.html

Full article and graph on the link.

Really interesting studies that came out yesterday:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/...vid-19-patients

j/c:

CDC stunning new survival rates for Covid…

https://www.citizenfreepress.com/column-...sm-goes-silent/

205,000 and counting.

Throwing politics out of this since this is NOT the political forum, this report is actually great news! Glad to hear it.

I cannot find a link to that report and cannot find it on the cdc website.

The cdc is reporting a little over 7 million cases and a little over 204,000 deaths. My math has that at roughly 2.9%.

And while the death rates may be going down, I am still seeing deaths in all age groups.

My hospital (the only one in the county) was down to 12 covid patients in the hospital sometime 4-6 weeks ago. Most recent update had us at 39. And my county is 25th in number of covid cases in the state of NC.

They are also reporting 310,000 new cases in the US in the past week. Even if only 0.1% die that is 310 people.

With the massive volume of infections that ae still occurring, even a small percentage of deaths still results in a large number of actual deaths. So we need to cut down the total number of infections. And we can do that easily by getting people to simply wear masks but people are to stubborn, selfish, and obstinate to do so. The most recent information i have seen is that only 51% to 59% of people always wear masks in public. If we can get that to 90%, heck even 80%, we can make a huge impact in the number of deaths. But more than that, we'd be able to get the R0 (R naught - number of new infections from one infected person) to <1 which is what we need to do do get this out of a pandemic status.


Here is my link to the cdc numbers.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesinlast7days

Anybody that thinks this is not as dangerous as the thing we hid from for months is blowing smoke up their own ass IMHO. The politics of today are doing us no favors during a pandemic, we could have handled this so much better during bipartisan times.

It's Not in My Head': They Survived the Coronavirus, but They Never Got Well

Sarah Mervosh
Mon, September 28, 2020, 3:15 PM EDT


They caught the coronavirus months ago and survived it, but they are still stuck at home, gasping for breath. They are no longer contagious, but some feel so ill that they can barely walk around the block, and others grow dizzy trying to cook dinner. Month after month, they rush to the hospital with new symptoms, pleading with doctors for answers.

As the coronavirus has spread through the United States over seven months, infecting at least 7 million people, some subset of them are now suffering from serious, debilitating and mysterious effects of COVID-19 that last far longer than a few days or weeks.

This group of patients wrestling with an array of alarming symptoms many months after first getting ill — they have come to call themselves “long-haulers” — are believed to number in the thousands. Their circumstances, still little understood by the medical community, may play a significant role in shaping the country’s ability to recover from the pandemic.

By some estimates, as many as 1 in 3 COVID-19 patients will develop symptoms that linger. The symptoms can span a wide range — piercing chest pain, deep exhaustion, a racing heart. Those affected include young and otherwise healthy people. One theory is that an overzealous immune system plays a role.

Some are unable to work. Many may need long-term medical care.

Still, many say their biggest challenge is getting other people simply to believe them.

“There is just a lot of misunderstanding,” said Marissa Oliver, 36, who, long after she experienced classic virus symptoms, dragged herself to an urgent care clinic in New York because she was still struggling to breathe. The medical professional’s advice? Go home and have a glass of wine.

“I started sobbing in the lobby,” Oliver said, adding that she was misdiagnosed as having anxiety. “I’ve never been this sick in my life.”

In interviews, four people struggling with lingering conditions long after they had the coronavirus described their experiences. Their words have been edited and condensed for clarity.

199 DAYS SINCE SYMPTOMS BEGAN

‘I was a weight lifter, kayaker, hiker, white-water rafter. I can’t do anything right now.’

Karla Monterroso, 39, of Los Angeles, leads an organization that advocates for the representation of Black and Latinx people in tech, but has not been able to work full time since March. She could not get tested until about a month after she first fell ill, and only recently tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.

Before this, I was a weight lifter, kayaker, hiker, white-water rafter. I can’t do anything right now, physically, without harming myself. It’s like someone cut your battery pack in half and doubled the charging time. I have to prep myself mentally for a shower.

The first few months, I didn’t believe myself. Is this in my head? When I got the antibody test a few weeks ago saying I had a positive antibody test, I sobbed for like an hour. I was like, it is written on paper that this is what happened to me. Before then, you’re sitting there constantly questioning your own body, and no one in the medical community believes you.

There has been no public health campaign about this. I have relatives that believe if you have hot water and lemon, this will cure COVID. I have relatives that believe that I am sick because I work too much.

I could have just as easily been exposed to this thing and not have had symptoms and be fine today. There is no control over this. It is all Russian roulette, and you can minimize your times up at bat, but you can’t zero them out. That is a very uncomfortable truth.

189 DAYS SINCE SYMPTOMS BEGAN

‘At one point, I was thinking about a will. I was thinking I wasn’t going to make it.’

Candace Taylor, 38, was working in the billing and collections department of an Atlanta hospital when she tested positive for the virus in March. She described long-term coronavirus symptoms and a worsening of a previous chronic pain condition.

I’ve had chest pain every day since March. I’ve developed internal shaking. I get the dizzy spells. I’ve developed tachycardia. Tiny blood clots. Ear popping. I’ve lost my voice. There are days I go without talking. I kept asking, when is this going to stop? I couldn’t lay flat. I had to sleep in a recliner for over 2 1/2 months. At one point, I was thinking about a will. I was thinking I wasn’t going to make it.

I have not been able to work. My job consists of speaking eight to 12 hours. With me being hoarse, I can’t even talk 15 minutes.

I have not gotten paid from my employer since May. My disability was denied. It’s like this disbelief. They don’t believe me and thousands of us COVID long-haulers that have these symptoms.

76 DAYS SINCE SYMPTOMS BEGAN

‘It’s not in my head.’

Tony Pinero, 57, owned a ride share business in Las Vegas before testing positive for the virus in July.

They say you don’t have COVID anymore, you are COVID-free, but that is not true. Now I have post-COVID, and post-COVID seems like it’s worse. I still have the headaches. I still feel dizzy. The thing that worries me the most is me being winded all the time. It’s hard for me to walk up the stairs.

This has been such a detriment to my business that my business is virtually closed. I can’t drive.

My doctor is saying, ‘Hey, Tony, it’s just in your head.’ No it’s not. It’s not in my head. I don’t want to sit here and not be able to breathe. I don’t want to sit here and stay and do nothing. I want to go to work. I have to pay my car payments. I’ve got to pay my credit cards. I’ve got to pay my bills. Why would I want to sit at home?

188 DAYS SINCE SYMPTOMS BEGAN

‘It’s like one big cocktail to make you anxious, frustrated, depressed.’

Manuella Fehertoi, a bank worker in Middletown, New Jersey, tested positive for the virus in March. At 61, she had a history of asthma, and was hospitalized for seven days. Since then, she has been on oxygen at home and unable to work.

It’s depressing. I am still as sick as I was back then. I still have spikes of my fever. I still have spikes of chest pain or difficulty breathing. There are days I can barely come out of bed. I had a minor stroke at the end of May. Still, today, the upper right side of my face is numb.

Don’t get me started on my hair loss. I try not to look in the mirror too much, because it is just devastating. I used to color my hair and get all make up going. I look like I have aged 20 years. There is no shame, but it’s not me.

When people are for so long feeling this bad, constantly in pain, constantly in such anxiety of the unknown, they turn to the doctor, and the doctors don’t know either. That starts to bring you down, that starts to be part of your life. It’s like one big cocktail to make you anxious, frustrated, depressed. I just want to get back to being me. Lively, funny. I loved my job. I loved the people I worked with. Doing things with my children. Going to the beach, swimming, playing tennis. I can’t do anything. I can’t even walk around my backyard.


https://news.yahoo.com/not-head-survived...mp;uh_test=2_15

Im confused. How different is this from the rates we’ve heard about since March?

This looks like it averages to about a 0.6% death rate given that about 1 in 10 people are over 70.

To follow up (now that i am not just on a phone)....

Here is a May Report from the CDC claiming a 0.4% IFR among symptomatic cases. They couple that with a 35% asymptomatic rate, to guess at an IFR of about 0.3%

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

Using these numbers from Statista on the US population:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/

328.2M people

36.3M are above age 70
80.5M are between 50-69
129.8M are between 20-49
81.7M are between 0-20

**on tablet, had to do this in my head - i think it is right....***

Then, the average IFR is just

(36.3/328.2) * (1-0.946) + (80.5/328.2) * (1-0.995) + (129.8/328.2)* (1-0.9998) + (81.7/328.2)* (1-0.99997) = 0.72%

So actually, it’s nearly twice as bad as the May estimate from the CDC...

I guess putting the numbers in survival rates, and spitting up the ages makes it look a lot better?

**This works under the assumption that different ages get the coronavirus at the same rate. If old people don’t go out in public, then the efffective IFR among people who get coronavirus goes down.

SHHHH covid is not dangerous. It's all made up, it's not serious. Only 1 percent of the population dies. I don't need to social distance that's freakin stupid. I don't need to lose all of my personal freedom and wear a stupid mask that I don't like. It's not worse than a damn cold. If your old and sick just stay at home all alone so we can party like we are rock stars.



Biting my tongue before I really go off and get myself in trouble.

I have a agenda and I freely admit that.

You seem to know quite a bit about this subject. I just read your post and I have to ask...

Are you saying that the the media, some members of the public, and even posters on this board knew what the percentages of the survival/death rates were for each age group for a long time?

If that is true, why in God's name would they keep that information from us? My two kids tested positive. I know jfan's son tested positive. Other folks on here have had loved one test positive. I know my wife and I were worried sick and people kept these numbers from us? Do I have that right?

And before anyone goes off...........I KNOW that Covid is real. I practice all the safe habits. I can prove that I have been a proponent of the restrictions all along. I think we should continue to practice being safe.

I just don't like being misled. And this is probably a political discussion, but I'm really irritated right now. The more I learn, the more I think that the deaths are to people who are people who were in groups that die from all kinds of things, such as pneumonia, dementia, diabetes, complications from obesity, internal concerns, cancer patients, broken hips, etc.

And once again..........I am NOT saying this is a hoax or we should not practice safe habits. We should do all we can to keep those people safer. However, I think the fact that the media has kept this information from us is some BS! I sure as hell wish my wife and I would have had this information when both of our children tested positive!

I'm furious w/the media!

Let me get this straight. You're OK with 70 million around the world dying, 3.5 million in the U.S. And you're saying it's not serious? Alrighty...

He was being sarcastic.

I would certainly hope so, but it wasn't obvious from his post...

3.5 million u.s. citizens have died?

HE SAID AGENDA NOT MANGINA! Can't take you anywhere.

GM was clearly being sarcastic.... 3.5M comes from his "1%" number.

100 percent sarcasm

I think this has been public? Though it is not usually among the top-reported numbers in the United States (maybe it has been stressed more in Europe?).

But I think the “~0.5%” death rate and “hits elderly the hardest and seems to spare kids” have both been reported pretty consistently by the media.

One thing that is important - I think — is that the “relative death rates between young people and old people” are fairly similar to things like the seasonal flu. Covid-19 is about 5-20x as deadly as the flu for young adults, 5-20x as deadly as the flu for middle-aged adults, and 5-20x as deadly as the flu for elderly adults. It does appear to spare kids a bit — It is more like 3-5x as deadly as the flu for kids.

The second thing that is important — is that this is a very new virus — and it is very difficult to figure out exactly how deadly it is. We have had tests for the flu for decades, we had to make up the Covid-19 tests from scratch. We know a lot about how many flu cases are asymptomatic - we didn’t know that for Covid-19. That makes researchers very hesitant to subdivide the data too much. We knew that kids rarely died from Coronavirus - but because we have no idea how many are asymptomatic, people are very hesitant to quote a number.




I’m sorry your family went through that. I think the uncertainty of this disease is very scary for a lot of people.

The other side, of this - I think — is that the uncertainty makes a lot of people underestimate this. This disease really is **much** more deadly than the flu — for adults of every age. And we saw in NYC how the death rate spikes (even for younger people) when the hospital system becomes overwhelmed. It also becomes much more dangerous for Doctors and Nurses who are overrun trying to treat people. I’ve had several friends tell me about having to intubate probable Covid patients without masks, because the cases were coming in so fast that it was impossible to prepare.

Looking at all the data — I do honestly believe that we’d be around a million deaths today had we done nothing. (That is, no restaurant closures, no work from home, no social distancing etc.)

The panic, and the shutdown have real implications - but I think they have also saved a lot of lives.



That’s great - and I think it’s really all we can do (depending on your work and home environment, some people can do more or less.



I feel like the numbers that were reported are **too** biased the other way. All of the “bad” is hidden in the 70+ number on the bottom right. But that number is really bad! The 50-69 number is pretty bad too, a 0.5% chance of death is really big.



Again - the situation is super scary when loved ones are at risk. And I’m sorry that you didn’t realize that - especially for kids — it is very likely that they will be fine.

Thanks for the response. It sounds genuine to me and I agree w/much of what you say. I was a bit emotional because I felt we were being lied to by the media. I did do a lot of research on the dangers of the virus, but I never bothered to research the survival rates. It bothers me that the media and certain posters on here did not let us know about those numbers because it would have helped ease the angst many of us endured.

I do get that it may have saved lives because we were all more cautious. I'm still processing how I feel about this. I'm probably more upset w/myself than anything. I knew better than to trust Trump and other politicians when they downplayed the virus. I should have also known not to trust the media and certain posters on here for accurate information.

But again, thanks for the response. I appreciate it.

One thing that I think the media is really bad at is “individual stories”

Sure, only 0.003% of Children who get Coronavirus die. But if 10M kids get the disease over the course of a year — that is still about 1 child death every day. I don’t know if the media is doing something wrong by writing about every child (every child death is a big deal, especially in their local community!) — but it definitely makes it feel like every child is dying...

To some extent - this is a big issue with the internet - which I don’t think anybody knows how to deal with yet. 20 years ago, those stories would be limited to local news. Now every one can get retweeted around the world and we are inundated with them.

I’m not sure if I heard this (and forgot the source) or made it up — but I think it is useful to think of things in terms of “billion person theory”. Which is — to say — there are 6 billion people in this world. That means, that every day, 6 billion days are lived. The average person only lives 30,000 days. Every day, 200,000 full lives are lived.

So think for a second about the (craziest, saddest, scariest, happiest, most unlikely, most coincidental, most meaningful) moment of your life. If you are living an average life — then there are 200,000 similar things happening every day in this world. And probably half of them are even more extreme. So every day, 100,000 things happen that are scarier than anything you will ever expereience, and sadder, and more ironic, and happier, etc. etc.

If you read all the stories of these events, it would be totally overwhelming. The brain isn’t good at contextualizing all that experience. We aren’t prepared for this, because — until recently — the daily world for most people only consisted of a local community of 100s or thousands of people.

I don’t know that the media is purposefully lying, or has a particular objective. The internet (and the interconnectivity of the world) is new, and hard to deal with. Their job is to get every notable story out there — and when the story is big — it can quickly become overwhelming.

I don't know either. But one thing I notice about such things. When you have someone in power claiming children are immune and how it doesn't effect children, you will have those who know better coming out strongly to show that it isn't true, when it isn't.

Yeah - “children are not affected” is pretty hyperbolic.

Children are dying by the thousands is also hyperbolic — and I want to agree with you — scientists haven’t said that. And the News Media (at least responsible members — media is so hard to define these days) haven’t said that either.

Where I think Vers is correct - is that the endless stories about Children dying can make it appear that it is thousands of Children dying per day. When in fact the individual risk to a Child who gets Covid is relatively low.

OTOH, they also close schools during flu outbreaks - and Covid-19 is more dangerous to kids than the flu. I don’t know what the right risk/reward is.

I tend to leave that up to healthcare professionals.

I agree - though when you talk about multi-month shutdowns, I think professional economists should also play some role.

I think the scientists and doctors are doing their best - under very trying circumstances.

I think the shutdowns were, without a doubt the right policy.

I think if we could have got more people on board (which would have required us being less polarized as a nation) - we could have saved 100K lives - and been back to something that is closer to normality now.

I think that shutdowns are really really hard on a lot of people (both economically and personally) and that we shouldn’t discount the need for people to see each other and live lives.

I think maybe we should translate some of our newfound compassion to how we treat prisoners...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/super-healthy-19-old-college-161300588.html

This is why I don't talk about population percentages for individuals.
This kid shouldn't have died but he did.

My mental approach is that for each individual patient (whether it is covid or something else life threatening) is that their survival is either 100% or zero. My job is to do anything and everything I can to push that patient toward the 100%.

On a related note, these percentages being referred to have been out there for a long time. And while exact numbers were not always mentioned, it was thrown in our faces over and over that the mortality risk significantly increased with age.

I don't know how much I posted here in the Spring, I was a little preoccupied, but I spent a lot of time trying to explain to people that, yes, the older you are the more likely you are to get really sick, but this is not just a disease of old people. Telling people that this week I have a 50 year old and two 40 year olds on the vent, or that now I have a previously healthy 24 year old on the ventilator.

So when I hear this president tell us that young people don't get sick, then have a young person on the brink of death or read a story like above, I frankly get pissed off. And I will leave it at that because this is not the political and if I keep going on, you will 2 pages on the federal governments mismanagement and lies related to covid.