DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Baker Comparisons

I was interested to try to dig a bit deeper into Baker's numbers and stats to see how he compares to other 3rd year QB's and also how he ranks compared to others in today's game. I was doing this for myself last night and decided to share ...

I know on the one hand stats do not in any way tell the whole story - and in some cases can be very misleading. Think of how many times a QB gets sacked - which might indicate a porous OL ... but in reality (like last year) be the result of Baker holding the ball too long, or running out of clean pockets and running himself into trouble. And obviously none of this discussion covers his ability to read a Defense Pre or Post snap ... nor does it reflect the speed at which he processes and can go through progressions. Those are really separate discussions that relate to how good Baker is or can be - not about comparisons to other QB's stats.

However with that said - I've seen people post how it took Brady, or Ben or Brees or whichever very good QB you name, a while to settle and "get it". So I was looking for a stats site that might give some context around that - and found what looks to be a really good resource, I'll post the link below. One of the stats I like on the deeper dive, is they also have a section for "Advanced Passing Stats" - broken into Air Yards, Accuracy, Pressure, Play Type. . . . I can't validate the accuracy of how they break all this down, and I haven't even looked at every aspect. . . . what I wanted to do was compare Baker's rating over the first 3 seasons, his completion % and when I saw 'Accuracy' in the advanced section, I wanted to compare his "Bad Throw" percentage to others... My thinking being that we see Baker play well and then make a horrendous throw ... or if we're talking about last year, he made several bad throws and then a good one! And how does this compare to other NFL QB's

SO.... Here are Bakers Stats:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MayfBa00.htm

Baker Mayfield
2018 - Cmp% 63.8 == Rating 93.7 == Bad% 17.2
2019 - Cmp% 59.4 == Rating 78.8 == Bad% 18.1
2020 - Cmp% 62.4 == Rating 91.5 == Bad% 16.7 (3 games only)

Interestingly if you break out 2020 games - it highlights how BAD the Ravens game was and how well he's played since.

BLT - Cmp% 53.85 == Rating 65.0
CIN - Cmp% 69.57 == Rating 110.6
WFT - Cmp% 69.57 == Rating 117.3

Bad Throws

So - comparing to others ** Note that the Bad Throw % is not available for every year, so older QB's whose first seasons (of starting significantly) I quote for completion and rating, I am forced to use their 2020, 2019 and 2018 Bad throw % numbers, I put an * by that stat. Not ideal but the only way to do it ... you would think that being older they would make less bad throws than when starting their careers, but there is no way to prove from this data.

None of these comparison stats prove anything - but I found it interesting and might generate some discussion. Certainly poking around that site is interesting.

Drew Brees.
2002 - Cmp% 60.8 == Rating 76.9 == Bad% 10.3 *
2003 - Cmp% 57.6 == Rating 67.5 == Bad% 10.7 *
2004 - Cmp% 65.5 == Rating 104.8 == Bad% 12.9 *

Russel Wilson
2012 - Cmp% 64.1 == Rating 100 == Bad% 15.4 *
2013 - Cmp% 63.1 == Rating 101.2 == Bad% 18.5 *
2014 - Cmp% 63.1 == Rating 95.0 == Bad% 8.2 *

Carson Wentz
2016 - Cmp% 62.4 == Rating 79.3 == Bad% 14.4 *
2017 - Cmp% 60.2 == Rating 101.9 == Bad% 17.8 *
2018 - Cmp% 69.6 == Rating 102.2 == Bad% 20.8 *

Tom Brady
2001 - Cmp% 63.9 == Rating 86.5 == Bad% 18.9 *
2002 - Cmp% 62.1 == Rating 85.7 == Bad% 20.6 *
2003 - Cmp% 60.2 == Rating 85.9 == Bad% 17.1 *

Sam Darnold
2018 - Cmp% 60.8 == Rating 76.9 == Bad% 10.3 *
2019 - Cmp% 57.6 == Rating 67.5 == Bad% 10.7 *
2020 - Cmp% 65.5 == Rating 104.8 == Bad% 12.9 *

Matt Stafford
2009 - Cmp% 53.3 == Rating 61.0 == Bad% 17.4 *
2011* - Cmp% 63.5== Rating 97.2 == Bad% 20.8 *
2012- Cmp% 59.8 == Rating 79.8 == Bad% 19.2 *

Andy Dalton
2011 - Cmp% 58.1 == Rating 80.4 == Bad% 15.6 *
2012 - Cmp% 62.3 == Rating 87.4 == Bad% 18.3 *
2013 - Cmp% 61.9 == Rating 88.8 == Bad% * (no 2020)

Mitch Tribisky
2017 - Cmp% 59.4 == Rating 77.5 == Bad% 18.4 *
2018 - Cmp% 66.6 == Rating 95.4 == Bad% 18.4 *
2019 - Cmp% 63.2 == Rating 83.0 == Bad% 24.4 *

Deshaun Watson
2002 - Cmp% 61.8 == Rating 103.0 == Bad% 17.3 *
2003 - Cmp% 38.3 == Rating 103.1 == Bad% 16.7 *
2004 - Cmp% 67.3 == Rating 98.0 == Bad% 17.6 *

Ben R.
2004 - Cmp% 66.4 == Rating 98.1 == Bad% 18.3 *
2005 - Cmp% 62.7 == Rating 98.6 == Bad% 19.4 *
2006 - Cmp% 59.7 == Rating 75.4 == Bad% 12.1 *

Jared Goff
2002 - Cmp% 54.6 == Rating 63.6 == Bad% 17.5 *
2003 - Cmp% 62.1 == Rating 100.5 == Bad% 20.2 *
2004 - Cmp% 64.9 == Rating 101.1 == Bad% 15.3 *

Patrick Mahomes
2018 - Cmp% 66.0 == Rating 113.8 == Bad% 17.1 *
2019 - Cmp% 65.9 == Rating 105.3 == Bad% 18.3 *
2020 - Cmp% 67.8 == Rating 114.3 == Bad% 16.5 *

One of the really big things that jumps out at me is how Brees 'bad throw' stats are lights out better than any other QB.

Yet they mirror Sam Darnold’s.

Wait... I think the OP may have gotten a Darnold’s numbers wrong. They all mirror Brees’.

I will edit and correct. My bad - cut and paste

Are we really doing this?

Time expired to edit. Here are the correct numbers:

Sam Darnold
2018 - Cmp% 57.7 == Rating 77.6 == Bad% 19.3*
2019 - Cmp% 61.9 == Rating 84.3 == Bad% 17.8 *
2020 - Cmp% 59.4 == Rating 70.7 == Bad% 11.3 *

Didn't realize that both Watson and Goff had been in the league since 2002, boy how time flies. LOL

LOL - Multi tasking.... Can't fix now.

jc --

Got to say I am pulling hard for Baker to be the long-term answer. I've been watching a lot of "talking heads" the last week, and they hate him so much that I hope he proves everyone wrong. I watched talking heads excuse Lamar's inability to play from behind and win a game with his arm as "he'll get better" and as recently as this morning dismiss Sam Darnold's struggles and "butt stumble" as Adam Gase's problem and his lack of supporting cast, continuing to claim that they don't know what Darnold is yet. However, they are all very definitive on Baker ... Cowherd, Ryan Clark, Marcus Wiley, ... it's all written in stone that Baker sucks. And it's all because they don't like the guy and want to see him fail versus the other two where they are more likeable. I hope Baker uses that type of stuff as motivation to get better and rub in in their faces. Plus, that's what's best for the Browns.

The subject of this post, this comparison, to me doesn't actually say anything about the players. It speaks more to the organizations the players are drafted into. Some players take longer to develop and need a structure they can be developed in. Big Ben was not all that good his first few years. Like Baker he had no idea what was going on post snap. But they limited what they asked him to do, he had the athleticism to extend plays mitigating the fact he had no idea what was going on post snap, had a great defense, and won games. The stability of the organization and the winning games thing bought Ben so much time to develop into the player he became.

It's time for the Browns to commit to Baker and continue to develop him. There is no magic solution at QB coming for the Browns. They are going to win too many games.

I really hope Baker wins in a shootout this week, tosses 4+ TDs, and has an amazing game. Want to see him shut these talking heads up. These guys want to see him fail so bad. Cowherd is so invested in this outcome that he dedicates a lot of air time to Baker. Come on Bake, let's shut him up.

And before the criticize police come after me, I am going to judge Baker harshly. I am going to complain about bad play. I am going to make statements like he sucks (if he does) or I wonder if he is ever going to get it. I am going to make a lot of people like FATE angry with my ridiculous statements. None of that will change the fact that I don't think he's a finished product, can get better, and that the organization needs to lock him up long-term and let him develop into the QB we all think he can be.

Brees is done. he is terrible

Well I think it speaks to the fact that many great QB's take more then 2 or 3 years to get to their ceiling ... I mean I posted some of the best of the best their - it wasn't Blake Bortles and Colt McCoy ....

And I nearly made a comment about how nothing can reflect or take into account the chaos and dysfunction that Baker has known since he became a Brown ... but didn't want to get the thread off topic.

Comments about how other successful QB's were limited in their first years is another good point - Wentz more so than anyone I can think of played well early in a system that didn't ask him to throw the ball over 8-10 yards very often.

Brees is or was the most accurate QB to play the game.

Darnold can't or wont get the ball downfield... Checkdown Charlie Frye in the offense that he runs. It was pretty evident last night. And mentioned by the announcers.

Why you calling me out bro? All I ever did is call you crazy for saying he should be benched! Remember? Like a week after you said we need to give him two more full seasons?

"Baker will be fine, we need to give him time!"

(Lose to the Ravens)

"BENCH HIM!"

I said maybe benching him would help take a step back for him. I thought the context was evident in my original post about the topic that it wasn't a punishment or a forever thing. When you pointed out that wasn't the case I clarified it in subsequent post. I don't mind being called out for acting like an irrational fanatic because I can be at times, but I didn't think it was that kind of a take.

But ultimately I'm calling you out because I knew you would read it and respond, and I think it's fun to call people out on this board and see their reactions. I find this board to be an endless source of entertainment, and I like to do things to keep myself entertained.

Mostly just busting your chops. Lol. Fair enough bro.

I'm here all week!

try the veal its delicious

Well, the veal saltimbocca, other veal dishes are cruel.

I tihnk Mayfield is most simiar to Brees.

People seem to forget that Brees wasn't good for the 1st 3 years of his career, and San Diego drafted Rivers to replace him because he had been bad. Rivers' rookie year was the first year Brees was really good. It takes time with a lot of guys, especially on teams with a history of losing and ones who change coaches like socks.

QUOTED FOR TRUTH.

I liked the comparison to Aikman during the game, Aikman never had to do to much because of Dallas’s run game.

Absurd comparison. Brees throws w/anticipation. Baker does not. Brees reads coverages quickly. Baker does not. Brees understands tendencies. Baker does not. Baker has a much better arm than Brees. Brees has a much bigger football brain than Brees.

They are not even close to being the same player.

Brees sucked his 1st 3 years.

IMO Mayfield pays a lot like Brett Favre. But I’m just assuming their numbers are comparable.

I know this was simply a typo, but it seemed funny to me as I read it to myself. Because, Brees is the same player as Brees.

A completely different offensive line (5 new starters) changed Brees from average to very good between years 2 and 3.

Their first three years:
Brees: 58% completion avg.
Mayfield: 62% completion avg.

Year 3 - 11 TDs 15 INTs. 67.5 QB Rating. San Diego goes 4-12 and earns the #1 overall pick. Draft Eli Manning and trade him for Rivers and a bunch of other picks.

Then it was the next year that they brought in the new OL and Brees lit it up.

Right. He was good, but definitely not right away. Not like Brees didn't have nay help at all seeing that Tomlinson was drafted the same year.

All I am trying to say is Brees is a 1st ballot HoF player, but he was bad enough his 1st 3 years that they were going to replace him. Someone said Baker is comparable to an extent and other said they aren't even close to the same player. HoF Brees and current Baker, obviously not. But 1st 3 years Brees and 1st 3 years Baker......I'd say they are similar, with Baker getting a slight edge. Baker has more weapons for sure, and he definitely needs to improve, but is currently at 93.7 QB rating, 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Not HoF numbers, but not bad by any means.

Once Brees got settled into a system and got some protection he was lights out. We will see what we have in Baker once he is in one system for more than a season. Hopefully this is the system, because I think it suits him beautifully.

Good god - thank god we don't have that bum here! He'd get run out of town by week 4.

We have people seemingly unhappy with Baker's play and he's got a QBR (ESPN's funky system) that's 11th in the NFL and a tradition Rating of 97.3 and 20th in the league despite posting an appalling first game 60+ rating.

I doubt Baker ever gets close to the player Brees became in terms of decision making and speed of processing/progressions .... but then I am pretty sure San Diego never thought Brees was going to get there either and that was at the END of his 3rd year, not after 4 games of his 3rd year (and his 4th HC etc).

This time next year will be enlightening, for sure. A full season in the system, a full offseason to improve on the knowledge and comfort of being in that system... and not just for him, but for the entire roster. Everyone around him will be elevated by having another year in the system and only rookies and free agents will have the steep learning curve.

It really should be night & day.

j/c:

A couple of comments. A qbs success can not be counted on just because another qb started off bad. That is such flawed logic. I remember back in the day on the DawgTalkers board about how so many would compare Tim Couch's stats to Elways in the first 2-3 years. Dumb logic.

Hell, we can point to all kinds of guys who started off bad and remained bad. Either way, it's an invalid comparision.

Secondly, I think Brees is one of the greatest qbs of all-time. Me saying that Baker does not possess the same strengths as Brees does NOT mean that I want Baker benched or traded. I don't think guys like Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Big Ben, Steve Young, Eli Manning, Boomer Esiason, Phil Simms, etc, etc are comparable to Drew Brees, either.

Baker is not respected all that much by those who cover the game, including a lot of dudes who actually played in the NFL. Y'all act like I am crazy for questioning how good he is. I'm not alone and those guys know more than we do.

Here's the bottom line. Baker isn't playing bad. He is not playing good. We'll see if the Browns choose to give him a huge contract or not shortly. I say he has a lot of proving to do, no matter what you guys say.

Sigh....

No one said because Brees started bad that Baker will be good. I was just pointing out the fallacy that they're completely different quarterbacks when Brees started out worse than Baker has. Baker has had four head coaches in less than three full seasons and need some time in one system to grow. Brees struggled when San Diego was changing coaches and took a few years to grow into himself and become the player that he is now.

Not many quarterbacks start out like Mahomes. Odds are Baker will never have the career the Brees has had, but it is also proof that players can improve and get better even as extremely as Brees did.

And again with the comment about him not being well respected. You are taking a few comments from a couple people and applying that to a very broad spectrum. There are tons of people who cover the game and played that do respect Baker as well.

So Verse, start naming names....Lol at the payback.....

Mr. Contrarian, you get yourself so tied up in Baker Bashing it’s ridiculous. Is he the second coming of Brees, maybe, maybe not. No one is calling him an elite QB at this time, but functional is a whole lot better than anything the Browns have had in 21 years, and I am willing to set the knives aside and let him develop in the same system for a while.

Baker has had himself a nice season so far.

Why does he need to be compared to anyone else? Why can't he be his own man.

I didn't resort to name calling. I stated my opinions, which have been proven right time and time again.

I was the one who pointed out his lack of pocket presence a couple of years ago. I was the one who said he processed too slowly. I was the one who said he struggled reading post-snap coverages. I was the one who said he held the ball too long and was responsible for many of his sacks. Folks on here degraded all those points. Now, we have video and statistical evidence to support everything I said. Instead of acknowledging those things, some of you are resorting to calling me out again. I'll continue to give my honest opinions despite what you guys say.