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#1810953 10/27/20 07:57 PM
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Thanks Throw. I appreciate it. I usually like to gather more info and watch some tape before I post this, but I'll try my best.

Some facts:

--Raiders are 3 and 3 and of course, we are 5 and 2.

--Raiders score 28.5 point a game and we average 28.6.

--Raiders give up 30 a game and surrender 31.5

--The most important stat in football that leads to wins and losses is the turnover battle. We are plus 5 and they are minus 5.

--Raiders are 7th in passing yards per game and Browns are 27th.

--Raiders are 17th in rushing yards per game and Browns are 3rd.

--Both teams are bad at defending the pass. Raiders rank 28th and Browns are 30th.

--Raiders are 15th in passing yards per game and Browns are 5th.

--Browns are 2.5 point favorites and the Over/Under is 53.5

Key Matchups:

--The Raider OL is banged-up and we should be able to generate pressure on Carr.

--Brady had a lot of time to throw against LV and we should, too. However, they might blitz us a lot.

--I look for the Raiders to try and get the ball to Waller, their excellent TE and Ruggs, a speedy rookie WR. They will hammer Jacobs, who is a tough runner, at the Browns to keep us honest. I think they will sell out to stop the run and force us to pass. They might blitz, but their secondary is beat up.

--I think the Browns will try and rush Carr. He can struggle under pressure. I think we should try to beat their weakened secondary when we have the ball w/short, quick passes.

--I think both teams are similar in many ways and both are inconsistent. I think the Browns should win while barely covering. Disclaimer: I am not good at picking against the spread. LOL

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Waller is going to be a big issue. They really destroy teams with him as a primary weapon in the middle of the field.

They have talent at all 3 levels ... Ruggs deep, Waller intermediate, and Renfrow/Jacobs at the LOS


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Thank you well done.
We played these guys to a stand still 2 years ago look for Hunt
and Myles to have big games and get us the win.

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This is definitely a winnable game, but it is also prime for them to upset us, too. It is basically their strengths vs our weaknesses and the same for us.

This has the potential to be a total shootout and I think that the team that holds the other to a FG or two instead of giving up a TD every drive will be the one to walk away with the 'W'.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Quick question before I continue reading your post:


--Raiders are 7th in passing yards per game and Browns are 27th.

--Raiders are 17th in rushing yards per game and Browns are 3rd.

--Both teams are bad at defending the pass. Raiders rank 28th and Browns are 30th.

Is the first line you wrote on D or on O?

Last edited by lampdogg; 10/27/20 08:24 PM.

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Not sure where - but I mentioned Waller in a post about this game. I don't think we have anyone who can stop Waller. I can see an afternoon of frustration as every time they need a play, Waller will probably get a first down... I think Ruggs has a phenomenal career ahead of him, he's one of several rookie WR's who have absolute stud potential.

Surprised we are favored by 2.5 .... I see this as a coin flip and a bad call by the refs or a lucky bounce could swing this either way.


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Will we be able to run the ball?


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I did the offensive passing and rushing ratings first and then did the defensive passing and rushing rankings next. Note: All were based on Yards per game.

I was having a hard time retrieving stats. Two sites kept saying their system was experiencing problems. I noticed this when I saw the turnover numbers. So, I went to three other sites. I think all my numbers are correct, but I am not certain. I was getting aggravated because I was trying to hurry. I asked Throw if I could have this thread back, similar to how tab does the What I Saw thread. He said something like, "sure, just do it early." I usually like to spend a few days researching.

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Gotcha. you said passing instead of rushing for the D stats.

Thanks!


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Oh crap..............too late to edit. No wonder lamp was confused. This line is incorrect.

Quote:
-Raiders are 15th in passing yards per game and Browns are 5th.


Those are defensive rushing rankings. Not simply passing yards. Sorry about that. blush

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Originally Posted By: oobernoober
Will we be able to run the ball?


Good question. The stats say one thing and teams adjust. Let me ask you a question. If you were the DC for the opposing team, what would you focus on? Stopping the run or the pass? Would you blitz and try to fill the run gaps and also try and speed Baker up, or would you sit back and try to stop the passing game w/good coverage?

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thanks, lol... that was what had me puzzled


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I'm not the sharpest broom in the attic.

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You and me both!


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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Originally Posted By: oobernoober
Will we be able to run the ball?


Good question. The stats say one thing and teams adjust. Let me ask you a question. If you were the DC for the opposing team, what would you focus on? Stopping the run or the pass? Would you blitz and try to fill the run gaps and also try and speed Baker up, or would you sit back and try to stop the passing game w/good coverage?


I don't know much about their roster, nor their scheme, but just looking at their depth chart, I venture that they don't have the horses to try to do what Pittsburgh did. If they do, they're just going to leave everything exposed and get chewed up. I think they have to work to their strengths and hope for the best, kinda like our defense does.

I think they try to roll with stopping the run without bringing anyone into the box so they can drop more into coverage while mixing up who the rushers are.

I think their most obvious plan will be to try to win 1st and 2nd down so they have a shot on 3rd down.... that's overly simplistic, but I don't think they will be able to generate much pressure, so they won't be able to dictate many situations. They're just going to have to try to hang on... and hope is not a plan.


I do not think our run game will light them up, but it WILL command attention and respect; they won't be able to make us one-dimensional.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Thanks Verse. They seem a lot like us... Inconsistent. Capable of sublime heights and utter collapse. I saw parts of their games against the patriots and the chiefs and they looked like two different teams. If both our best show up it’ll be a hell of a game with a lot of points.

Not to get ahead but I’m just marveling at the fact that we’re going to enter the bye either 5-3 or 6-2 with some key players coming back and a stretch of very winnable games on the other side. I would have lost a lot of money of that bet.




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jc They beat KC. We should not treat them lightly.


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There did seem to be a lot of statistical similarities between the two teams, didn't there? Our big advantage is Turn over differential. They are minus 5 and we are plus 5, if that site's numbers were correct. That is significant.

Should be a high scoring affair and back-and-forth similar to the Bengal game. Of course, "should" does not equate to "will."

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Originally Posted By: oobernoober
Will we be able to run the ball?


Good question. The stats say one thing and teams adjust. Let me ask you a question. If you were the DC for the opposing team, what would you focus on? Stopping the run or the pass? Would you blitz and try to fill the run gaps and also try and speed Baker up, or would you sit back and try to stop the passing game w/good coverage?


The first one. Blitz and clog the run.




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LOL............I just re-read my entire first post. I was obviously rushing. Made so many mistakes. The number of grammatical errors alone would keep a high school English student busy for quite some time if they were asked to edit that abomination.

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Teams are very similar. Both can put up alot of points and both give up alot of points.
I believe this will be the first time picking the Browns to win. Hope this doesn't jinx us. The raiders who are 3-3 are the more desperate team, which makes this a very dangerous game. However in the cold rain and wind i think our running game wil be a little bit better than thiers.

Browns 27
Raiders 26


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j/c

One benefit for us: this game isn’t a 4:25 game and didn’t get flexed ... Raiders gotta play 10AM their time


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Jeudy is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Tillman is flanked out wide to the right. Judkins and Ford are split in the backfield as Flacco takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
I'm not the sharpest broom in the attic.
Ha! :-p


No worries on the stats, I figured there was something amiss somewhere in there that would get sorted. Annoying you can't go back and correct. Thank you for posting it up.

I hear what you're saying about what the opposing D-coordinator WANTS to do... but what about what he CAN do? We are a little banged up (so maybe this is a moot point) but there are plenty of D-coordinators that can WANT to shut down our run game all day, but might not have the horses to actually do so in a productive manner. I'm not very familiar with the Raiders (especially they're makeup on D). A good/easy day on the ground could go a LONG way in mitigating their own offensive strengths. This Browns team is built to take an early lead, and grind on a D with their run game. As the game goes on, our opportunistic D starts looking better and better.


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Although this is not a division game. It is a AFC conference game. Tie breakers may well be in play come season's end.

Odell is gone. That changes things on both sides. Odell even if he doesn't catch a pass; he always had to be accounted for.

This week's game preparation will be different. The offense will be retooled. Not sure yet if Teller will play. Hodge is due back. Higgins will start. Jarvis has been gutting it out. Coming back from a hip surgery and dealing with a cracked rib. DPJ will probably get some snaps. Hooper probably will remain out. Njoku and Bryant will be in the mix.

So the offense will have to find how they plan to adjust. My guess is they will go for balance. Use all receivers, backs, and TE's. Make the Raider defense figure out how to defend us. They are designed to have one look with many options off that look. Show another look and again have many options off that look. KS likes to make defenses guess.

We have gotten filleted in pass defense. We either have to get more pressure or cover better. Something has to give there. Carr can struggle under pressure. And we have not added players in the secondary. So we need to dial up pressure maybe blitz a little more.

Both teams are capable to win this game or lose it.

So as often is the case in even type games turnovers may well decide the outcome.


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Perhaps Njoku can fill the shiny decoy role? He certainly looks the part, and if he can catch a few big passes early and look like he's heating up that could loosen things up for others. I say it this way because I don't have faith that Njoku can be a staple in our offense.

If they decide to figure out if Bryant's last game was a fluke or not is fine by me as well. Let DPJ run the track meet, and have Higgins and Landry do their thing as well.

The strengths/weaknesses of Raiders D will also dictate if we try to hurt them through the air or with the short stuff.


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I just did a really quick search on the Raiders' defense. This looks to be a pretty good article. There is some offense sprinkled in, but I think some of their defensive issues are explained.

Quote:
Raiders’ defense reverts to old ways, gets ravaged by Buccaneers

Tom Brady capitalizes on ‘tough week’ for pressure-deficient Las Vegas Raiders vs Buccaneers
WADE VANDERVORT


Maurice Hurst turned around and offered to help Tom Brady up after he slammed the veteran quarterback to the Allegiant Stadium grass early in Sunday’s game.


The Raiders’ defensive tackle appeared concerned about the Buccaneer legend’s wellbeing in a moment more fitting of celebration than caution. It would end up being Las Vegas’ only chance to celebrate getting to the six-time Super Bowl champion on Sunday afternoon, as it didn’t touch him a single time for the rest of the game.

The Raiders couldn’t get near either Brady or his passes in a 45-20 loss that dropped them to 3-3 on the season.

“We didn’t get enough pass rush today,” Raiders coach Jon Gruden said afterwards. “If you let Tom Brady stand there and survey the field, he’s proven it for 20 years, and now he’s proven it for 21 years, that he’s one of the best.”

Brady had his best game since joining the Buccaneers with 369 passing yards and five total touchdowns — four passing, one rushing — at the expense of the Raiders, which looked more deferential of a long-time Raiders’ villain than determined to stop him. Brady wiped away all signs of progress the Las Vegas defense had shown recently.

There was hope brewing that a long-struggling Raiders’ stop unit was on the path to respectability after mounting pressure and coming up with big plays in key moments in a win at Kansas City its last time out. Even in their last loss, at home to the Buffalo Bills, the Raiders’ defense improved as the game went on to give the offense a chance at a comeback.

None of that happened on Sunday as the Raiders continually let Brady pepper passes to the likes of Chris Godwin, who had nine catches for 88 yards and a touchdown, and Scotty Miller, six catches for 109 yards and a touchdown.

“It was two different styles of offenses to compare than to just say we did one thing more last week than we did this week,” Raiders linebacker Cory Littleton said. “It’s just a different game plan, different team and we didn’t get it done.”

The Raiders’ defense didn’t start terribly. Las Vegas forced punts on three of Tampa Bay’s opening seven drives — the problem was, they gave up 24 combined points on the four others — and Gruden banked on it being able to do it one more time going into the fourth quarter.

Facing a fourth-and-1 from the Tampa Bay 17-yard line, Gruden sent in the field goal unit to cut Tampa Bay’s lead to 24-20 instead of keeping the offense on the field to try to tie the game. That ended up being a costly mistake, as Brady rallied for an 11-play, 67-yard touchdown drive to make it a two-touchdown game and mostly bury the Raiders. Included on that possession were a trio of third-down conversions that had Gruden grousing.

The first one was particularly upsetting to the coach as the Raiders had a chance to force a three-and-out on a 3rd-and-13 play before Brady dumped off a short pass to running back Leonard Fournette, who took off and dove for the first down.

“We had them right where we wanted them and they converted a checkdown,” Gruden said. “That’s frustrating.”

A blown coverage and holding penalty paved the way for Tampa Bay to get the next two third downs. Gruden couldn’t help but wonder if the game could have been different with starting defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette, both of whom were out with coronavirus-related issues.

Arnette tested positive during the bye week while Abram came into contact with right tackle Trent Brown, who tested positive on Tuesday, without enough time to fully go through the NFL’s quarantine protocols. Las Vegas caught a break in the other four players determined to come into contact with Brown — offensive linemen Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, Denzelle Good and Kolton Miller — all being ruled eligible after five straight days of negative tests.

But they were rusty after not being able to participate in practice, as the Raiders’ running backs were held to an average 2 yards per carry. Unlike Brady, Carr was constantly under duress with the Buccaneers managing five quarterback hits to go with three sacks by linebacker Devin White.

“Football is a game that needs to be practiced,” Carr said. “When you don’t have guys out there for the week, it hurts.”

Carr praised his offensive line for doing the best it could despite continually adverse situations. Las Vegas lost Sam Young, Brown’s replacement, to an injury in the first half and Jackson to an ejection right after Carr found Darren Waller for a 2-yard touchdown to make the score 24-17 early in the second half.

Television replays didn’t show Jackson doing anything too aggressive in a post-score scuffle, but Gruden said the officials told him that the league headquarters in New York had access to other angles.

“The job we were able to do today against the No. 1 defense in the NFL with everyone missing practice until today and getting to play in the game, it’s impressive,” Carr said. “That’s just me being real, but was it good enough? No. This is a production-oriented business.”

Carr produced in a big way at the onset of the game to put the Raiders up 7-0, taking the offense down the field on only six plays before a 20-yard touchdown pass down the slot to Nelson Agholor, who was his favorite target all day. Agholor wound up with five catches for 107 yards — including a 44-yarder to set up the Waller score — but had his first pair of drops of the year in the fourth quarter, both of which were costly.

The first contributed to Gruden’s decision to kick the field goal as Agholor couldn’t grab a floater that hit right in the middle of both of his hands on second down of the drive. The second drop came on a pass that was a little high from Carr, but still sailed through Agholor’s hands and into the diving body of Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

That happened on the first play after the Buccaneers made it 31-20 on a Godwin touchdown reception, at the Raiders’ 25-yard line. Two plays later, Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones ran in a touchdown and the late-scoring rush to make the final score a rout was on.

“We practice great, now we have to correlate to playing great in these intense game time situations,” Littleton said. “Everyone is capable of it and we all plan to strive and do these things.”

Littleton insinuated that Brady’s stationary, pocket-passing style was harder on the Raiders than the mad scrambling of the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, whom they were able to harass into mistakes. Gruden wrote off some of the defensive miscues as being a product of a “tough week,” but vowed to make changes regardless.

That puts the Raiders’ defense back in a familiar spot, exposed and left looking for answers.

“We’ve got to rush forward,” Gruden said. “We’ve got to do a lot better job than we did today.”


https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-po...gets-ravaged-b/

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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Originally Posted By: oobernoober
Will we be able to run the ball?


Good question. The stats say one thing and teams adjust. Let me ask you a question. If you were the DC for the opposing team, what would you focus on? Stopping the run or the pass? Would you blitz and try to fill the run gaps and also try and speed Baker up, or would you sit back and try to stop the passing game w/good coverage?


First off, nice initial breakdown, Vers. I love these threads.

If I were the DC, I would take note of what happened last week and the overall footage on Baker where he still struggles in making adjustments to the blitz and calling out hot routes. I would also capitalize on the fact that Teller is still out. In similarity to what our game plan was with the Bengals last week (which I wish we freaking adjusted!), I think that they realize they struggle in coverage, so the initial hope is to try and get to the QB, rather than to focus on sound coverage.

I would definitely start off by testing him with pressure.


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Trying to discern from the article Vers posted, but it sounded like Brady had all day to throw vs negating the pass rush by delivering quickly. If that assumption is correct, it predicts a very good day for the Oline, and Baker. They seem to be middle of the road in defending the run, so maybe their gameplan could be to sell out vs the run, and hope for the best vs the pass... but I dunno if they come away feeling confident in that gameplan after watching their and our past games.


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I read that article above and I started thinking more about the KC game they played vs New England. I think it makes me rethink that maybe they will not blitz us as much.

From what I gathered, they ran the "Cover 5" defense that the Patriots used against Mahomes and I don't believe blitzed more than once or twice the entire game (can't confirm that). They knew Mahomes was outstanding against the blitz, but struggled with processing the innovative coverage style that the Patriots rolled out against him.

They didn't get to Brady either, but, like Gruden inferred, Brady is absolutely top-notch at picking apart coverages, if given the time. I think Vers and I discussed this a few weeks ago, but I actually think Brady is marginally better at reading coverages than Manning was. The lack of pass rush ended up burning the Raiders.

Baker has struggled when it comes to adjusting protection and hot routes when it comes to the blitz, but he has struggled more IMO when it comes to reading the post-snap coverages where safeties move almost right at the snap (Fitzpatrick and the Bengals safety in Game 1).

Now, if I'm the Raiders DC, I think it might be a better plan to show blitz packages, while rarely rushing more than 4 and rotating coverages (from Cover 2 to 3, or 1 to 2, etc.). Keep the looks complicated while getting guys back in coverage and not leaving players wide open.


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Being able to run more, effectively, can blunt some of the blitzing. We may have gotten better last week with a tight win. Hoping we sweep, draw, screen and such. Roll Baker more.

This should be doable if we get the secondary out of their squat and watch coverage. Carr can hurt us, anybody can.


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There is a lot of good discussion going on in this thread. I appreciate the "thinking aspect" that guys are adding to the thread.

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It would be nice if we had Chubb and Hunt together for this one ... We need to keep their O on the bench, TOP is so important ...

Last edited by PastorMarc; 10/28/20 01:00 PM.

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Originally Posted By: PastorMarc
It would be nice if we had Chubb and Hunt together for this one ... We need to keep their O on the bench, TOP is so important ...


Long, grinding, drives that keep their O off the field and exhaust their D.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Carr is going to Carr-ve us up all day... Best we can hope for is that our D gets in a few INTs, and our O capitalizes.


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Carr can be as bad as he is good (3 Picks would be nice) and Garrett be in his face all day smile


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Carr is another qb who doesn't handle pressure very well. He gets lost in the pocket at times and will turn it over. We need to get after him. He's dangerous when he gets on a roll early and has time to throw. Streaky.

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j/c - I see Garret kept out of practice today. No indication he won't play but not a good thing if he is knicked up.


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Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Carr is another qb who doesn't handle pressure very well. He gets lost in the pocket at times and will turn it over. We need to get after him. He's dangerous when he gets on a roll early and has time to throw. Streaky.


I think this is a game where we need Richardson and Ogunjobi to step up BIG and generate pressure in his face. Even if they don't get the sacks, they need to restrict his space to step up while giving him something to worry about.


Browns is the Browns

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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Posts: 5,620
Nothing concerns me more in this game than Waller. We have made average TEs look like Kelce. Waller is way more than average.

I mentioned this in the most recent post game thread. I have visions of Sandejo trailing Waller by three yards play after play, only to dive on the pile when someone else brings him down. Between him and the LBs (*cough* Takitaki) I can see Waller with a career day, if Carr has the time to find him.

Any play caller that does not go after Sandejo on a regular basis needs to find another job.

Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,104
V
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Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,104
Where has Adrian Clayborn been? I know he had a hip injury but did he go to the IR?

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