DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum The Top 3 Picks of 2018 and Their 5th Year Option

Could the Browns and Jets move on from Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold? The fifth-year option deadline looms

Oct 23, 2020
Dan Graziano
ESPN Staff Writer




First of all, the Cleveland Browns are not about to bench Baker Mayfield for Case Keenum. They are not at that point. If you're thinking it's likely because of the prior relationship between Keenum and Browns coach Kevin Stefanski from their time together with the Minnesota Vikings in 2017, I'm here to tell you that you're overthinking it.

Based on the conversations I've had this week with people close to that situation, the Browns' coaching staff still believes in Mayfield. They recognize he had a lousy game on Sunday at the Pittsburgh Steelers; but he didn't practice much last week due to a chest injury, he took a hit early in the game that exacerbated it and he was playing against one of the league's best defenses. The team believes he will bounce back.


That said, though, the rest of this season is a very important one for Mayfield and his future in Cleveland. Next offseason is decision time for the Browns.






This is Mayfield's third year in the NFL. Rookie contracts are four years long, but contracts for first-round picks include a fifth-year team option that has to be exercised or declined between Years 3 and 4. By the first week of May 2021, the Browns have to decide whether they want to pick up Mayfield's option for 2022. Based on the way fifth-year options are calculated under the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA), his 2022 option salary will likely be in the range of $25 million to $26 million.

And here's the kicker: The new CBA mandates that beginning with the 2018 draft class -- of which Mayfield was the first pick -- the fifth-year option is fully guaranteed at the time it's exercised. Previously, that option was only guaranteed against injury until the start of the league year to which it applied. For instance, the Chargers exercised the 2021 option on wide receiver Mike Williams, their first-round pick from 2017; but as long as he is healthy, they can still back out of it at any time prior to the start of the 2021 league year in March. Starting with Mayfield's class, that's no longer the case, which means it's going to be tougher for teams to commit than it used to be.

Now, if Mayfield turns things around, has a big year, the Browns make the playoffs and everybody's happy, sure. No-brainer. They pick up the option and maybe even start talking about an extension with him. But if he continues to struggle and they aren't sure about him as their franchise quarterback in the long term, can they really commit -- in May 2021 -- to paying him more than $25 million in 2022 cash and cap room?

The New York Jets are in the same situation with Sam Darnold, who was the third overall pick in that 2018 draft. There's no way for them to be sure about Darnold at this point, and there might not be any way for them to be sure about him in May. Their current coach (who could be gone by then anyway) and general manager weren't there when the team drafted Darnold, so they have no attachment to him that predates their 2019 arrival. And the Jets are 0-6 and the favorites to end up picking first in a 2021 draft in which Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is viewed as a can't-miss franchise savior. Are the Jets going to want to commit -- in May 2021 -- to paying Darnold more than $25 million in 2022 cash and cap room?


Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were the top quarterbacks taken in the 2018 NFL draft, but both have struggled with consistency. Ron Schwane/AP Photo

Recall that five quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2018 draft. After Mayfield and Darnold, Josh Allen went No. 7 overall to the Buffalo Bills, Josh Rosen went No. 10 to the Arizona Cardinals and Lamar Jackson went No. 32 to the Baltimore Ravens. Jackson's option decision will be a no-brainer, as he was the league's MVP in his second year, and the improved Allen certainly looks at the moment like a keeper in Buffalo. Rosen no longer carries a fifth-year option, having been traded to the Miami Dolphins and subsequently released. (Rosen is now on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' practice squad.)

So of the five first-round quarterbacks in 2018, it seems possible -- even likely -- that three will not have their options picked up. All three were top-10 picks.

These are bad misses. The fifth-year option was created in the 2011 CBA, so decisions have been rendered on seven drafts' worth of first-round picks -- 2011 to 2017. In those seven drafts, there were 19 quarterbacks selected in the first round. Of those 19, 11 had their fifth-year options picked up. The other eight? Well, it's a list on which you really don't want to find yourself. In chronological order, the names are:

Jake Locker (pick No. 8, 2011 draft, Titans)

Christian Ponder (No. 12, 2011, Vikings)

Brandon Weeden (No. 22, 2012, Browns)

EJ Manuel (No. 16, 2013, Bills)

Johnny Manziel (No. 22, 2014, Browns)

Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32, 2014, Vikings)

Paxton Lynch (No. 26, 2016, Broncos)

Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2, 2017, Bears)

Bridgewater, of course, had his option declined because he suffered a catastrophic knee injury and spent a couple of years working his way back. He is now the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers and having a nice year. But the rest of these guys were either cut or had their options declined because they didn't turn out to be good enough.

When teams miss on a first-round quarterback, it's tough to recover from. When they miss on quarterback in the top 10, that's extra disastrous. Arizona seems to have survived it, but only by punting on Rosen and picking another quarterback (Kyler Murray) No. 1 overall the following year. If the Browns and Jets decline the Mayfield and Darnold options in the spring, odds are they'll be starting over with fresh options at the position. Don't Have a Quarterback Island is a perilous place to be stranded.

It's worth noting that there are players who have had their fifth-year option declined and played well enough that the team signed them anyway after their fourth year. None of the quarterbacks on this list falls into that category, though. You have to look at guys such as running back Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints) and cornerback Kyle Fuller (Bears) as players who did well enough in Year 4 to get their teams to reconsider their willingness to commit.

Trubisky entered the season with a similar opportunity, but he appears to have lost it. The spotlight shines brightest on the quarterback position, which means the decisions are the highest stakes. The Browns and the Jets will have to see a lot over the rest of the campaign from the guys they drafted two years ago in order to feel good about picking up Mayfield's and Darnold's options.


Other notes and things on my mind around the NFL this week:


The QBs aren't the only ones with interesting fifth-year option decisions.

The pick between Mayfield and Darnold in 2018 was New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who is out for the year with a torn ACL suffered in Week 2. By the end of his third year, he will have missed 17 of a possible 48 games for a team that during his time there has a league-worst record of 10-29. The GM who drafted him could be gone by the time the option decision is due. The coach who was there when the Giants drafted Barkley is already gone. Are you picking up a fully guaranteed 2022 option on Barkley in May when he is coming off a torn ACL?



One thing that works in Barkley's favor: The fifth-year option price for running backs is significantly lower than it is for quarterbacks. Projecting based on the formula in the new CBA, it looks as if Barkley's fifth-year option will come in somewhere between $8 million and $9 million. That's not a crippling amount if, by May, the Giants feel good about Barkley's recovery. Consider that they've already invested a fully guaranteed, four-year, $31.915 million rookie contract in Barkley, what's another $8 million or $9 million between friends?

The Giants' other option would be to sign Barkley to a contract extension in the spring, though it's tough to get a player to sign when he is coming off a year lost to injury. Players generally prefer to sign when they're coming off good years.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/3017...-deadline-looms

And now I have to ask, if we don't pick up the 5th year option, what would Plan B look like ??

My only worry is that we have a shot at a bonafide starter this offseason (it would be via FA... there are some rumors to put this within the realm of possibility). Then what?

yeah - that is what i would like to know. who?

Newton
Fitzpatrick
Trubisky
Tyrod

some real goodies out there.

I think, depending on how these last eight games go, we will definitely pick up the option. I think the only way we DON'T pick it up is if we absolutely 100% determine that he is not only not our future, but also that we can guarantee that we got a better system QB to fill in for less.

Basically, unless the coaches see absolutely zero chance of developing him into what this system needs, we will roll with him simply due to the difficult nature of finding someone better.

There is the middle option, too: we pick up the option, then spend the latter part of Year 4 renegotiating an extension based on how he has been doing up to that point, which would be a much larger book of work. Given that there is almost zero chance of him NOT being the starting QB for 2021, barring a catastrophic injury or Charlie Frye level play, he will get the bulk of 2021 to continue to grow a second season in the same offense.

I can't see the Browns giving him the 5th year option at this point, yet keeping him as the QB for his 4th season and making a decision after next season ... But, that all depends on the final 8 weeks of this season, if he plays great and leads us to the playoffs then my opinion and those of others could/would change ...

You're usually much more positive than this.

Baker is going to be one of those guys who unfortunately needs a little more time than people have patience for. When the light bulb goes on it's staying on and it's going to be great.

I'm very worried about Berry making a very dumb decision after his presser this week.

j/c...

I don't have an argument either way, Baker's play has put his @$$ firmly in "wait and see" mode.

My question is whether a $25 million commitment is really that much?

This won't copy/paste very well, so I'll just add the link... the slated salaries for 2022 are outrageous!

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2022/

Who's going to come in and play better than Baker?

Dak "If Healthy" Prescott

Before the injury I thought he was the only realistic upgrade, and I would be ok with that choice.

I don’t think Stefanski and Berry will survive if they dump Baker.

There will literally be no one to replace him with. It would be one of the dumbest things they could do.

If they don't want to extend him or pick up his option, that's fine. But he's the guy. There are no other guys out there. He works hard, has a plus level arm, and has shown flashes that he could be great. You don't walk away from that.

No fanbase in the history of the world loves to churn through players like Browns fans. And Browns front offices too.

If the Browns do end up dumping him they will reap what they sow. It will haunt them for years.

Stay the course. He's close to breaking out.

Stay the course.

My fear is we have a 32 year old inexperienced GM that is going to make a very dumb decision.

It'd be hard for me to imagine Baker not getting the fifth year option. The salary is not guaranteed unless the player is injured.

Jacoby Brissett?
Marcus Mariota?
Jameis?
Alex Smith?
Mr. Biscuit?
Jimmy Garoppolo?

All of the above names will likely be available next off-season. At this point I wouldn't take any of them over Baker because of his time spent in the offense (and with the coaching staff) and his upside. I would love to have one of the above names as a backup next year instead of Case Keenum.

It'd be hard for me to imagine Baker not getting the fifth year option. The salary is not guaranteed unless the player is injured.

And here's the kicker: The new CBA mandates that beginning with the 2018 draft class -- of which Mayfield was the first pick -- the fifth-year option is fully guaranteed at the time it's exercised. Previously, that option was only guaranteed against injury until the start of the league year to which it applied.

Since this would seem to be a case of a decision made by Berry