DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum AFC Playoff Chase Today (Discussion)

There are a handful of teams that are sliding up/down the ranking. Tenn, Balt started hot but are looking suspect. Miami has gotten hot. I think it'll all balance out by the end.

That really depends on how we get to 10-6 because I can see more than 3 of the WC teams at 10-6 or better.

If we had to go 10-6, the ideal way for us to get there is for us to lose to the Eagles, Giants, and Steelers and beat Jags, Jets, Titans, and Ravens.

That gives us the most benefit in the tie-breaker.. head to head tie breakers over Colts, Titans, and tied with Ravens.. and second tie breaker is conference record, that would make us 8-4 in conference.... but if we do that and go 10-6, people will be screaming because we lost to the Eagles AND Giants.

It could get hairy if there's a group up at 10-6. We would have to beat the Titans to ensure whichever team between them and the Colts that doesn't get the conference championship doesn't take the wildcard instead.

We obviously have to beat the Ravens to create a split head-to-head. For that matter we'd probably have to beat the Eagles to ensure the common opponent tie-breaker in the event the conference records are the same.

We already lost the head-to-head vs the Raiders.

Miami is such a strange wild-card simply because they;ve already played all their non-conference games, but they also lost to Seattle so in order for us to finish with the same record as them and have a possible tie-break situation, one of our loses would have to come from the NFC East (the Giants?). I'm hoping Miami's hot streak ends just as suddenly and wildly as it began

We can't lose anymore than 2 more games. 11-5 gets us out of the Tie-breaker world that we would lose. We just need to stay healthy.

Correct. If it comes to tie-breakers we are out. We only get in based on record.

Not with all teams if we beat the Titans we hold the Tie Breaker over Them and the Colts whichever one doesn't win the division

Only one of them will be in the wild card chase, the other wins the division. If it were today, we would need to be ahead of two of BAL, LV, MIA, and TEN. Having the tie breaker over TEN is not enough. We get in on record, the tie-breaker thing is already over. BAL, LV and MIA already have it on us.

I understand Las Vegas and Baltimore but Miami bothers me is it strength of schedule or what exactly puts them ahead of us ??

Miami wins tie breaker because of strength of schedule, the raider have the head to head victory over us. Honestly I think to have a chance to make playoffs we have to be 11-5 . I dont think 10-6 does it

Frankly, a lot can happen the rest of the season, so I think it’s too early to make iron-clad determinations.

Thats what I'm saying ...

With all the uncertainty surrounding us we have to take it day by day one game at a time. Heck, in a normal year with 7 games left it's tough enough never mind with what's going on now.

Or we could just enjoy having a competitive NFL team for the first time in a long time. If we make the playoffs ... Bonus!

Meanwhile Baker is taking an absolute beating in the media today both locally and nationally because he didn't put up better numbers in a wind storm in a win.

He is easily the most hated guy in the NFL, maybe all of sports.

I don't think he looked good at all. I thought Watson made a couple more throws than Baker did, and that TD drive they finally got was all Watson.

I do agree with you, though, that there are PLENTY of folks that look way too hard to find stuff to criticize Baker.

Who do the Patriots still have?
Pats have the Cardinals, Rams, Dolphins, Bills,

and the Jets are going to be BHurt for a win the last two weeks, they have Cleveland Home, and Pats on the road,
I'd hate to see the final 2 weeks turn out OIC, (only in Cleveland), and the Jets put the Pats in the playoffs in the spot the Browns had achieved.

Looking at the schedules briefly, it’ll be tough to think Miami won’t be in the playoffs. Pretty easy schedule and playing well.

I’d say the Raiders should also make it.

The more I’m looking at these schedules, the less confident I feel about us making it. Unless we upset Baltimore or Tennessee, we probably won’t get in

Miami does not win a tie-break on strength of schedule.

We have the minimum 4 required common opponents.

Cincinnati
Jets
Jaguars
Raiders

Though hoping the Raiders and The Bengals beat them is a bit of an ask.

We are 2-1 vs. common opponents with 2 games to go
They are 2-0 with 3 games to go.

Admittedly, we'll likely end up 4-1 each and it will THEN come down to strength of victory/schedule (and they would win by a country mile)
But...they could lose 2 of them, sooo...

I don't think he played all that well either and said so during and after the game.

But the amount of abuse the guy takes is disproportionate to reality.

And let's face it, when it comes to Browns fans they'll never be happy unless you have a Mahomes type at QB. Browns fans would have run Brady out of town 10 years ago. In general, Browns fans are idiots.

The rest of the media is so fixated on the guy it's unhealthy.

“Generally” speaking... idiots....

Sometimes you talk too much.

I give up, ... there are some NFL Players that are only 23 years old, and I've been trying to study the NFL tie breaking procedures for at least 25 years, and I thought I understood it somewhat,

But I learned a concept today, so, I give up.

if 3 or more clubs have the same record in the wild-card,

1. (apply the division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2)

^ This from "operations.nfl. com not "nfl . com, soo-

Does that mean? If everybody is 10-6, that's 6-3 today, That the Browns are immediately slighted for being 3rd place in the afc north, while the colts, raiders, are 2nd place in their divisions, afc-south and afc west,
Even before the head to head is looked at.

Therefore meaning, as long as you're 3rd place behind Pitt and Balt, you'll never make the playoffs, in almost any year!

but if it's only 2 clubs that are tied, it's back to everything we've always understood.

Hmmm...didn't realize that either.

Guess we REALLY need to beat Baltimore and hope Pittsburgh does as well.

Even then it would come down to week 17. Yuck. Browns vs Pittsburgh and Baltimore vs Cincinnati.

I've brought this up a few times, because it is, in essence, a poison pill where the Browns are concerned.

However, it doesn't mean a second team from the same division can't get the Wildcard spot.

Here's the most important info that many confuse:


In other words, with two teams in the same division, the procedure (division rules are applied to two teams in the same division to resolve Wildcard eligibility and seeding) would eliminate one team for that round of tie-breakers only.

For the sake of making things easy to understand, we'll assume the Ravens hold tie-breakers over the Browns.


==================
Scenario #1: Baltimore, Cleveland, Vegas and Miami are all tied at 10-6... Cleveland is eliminated (because Baltimore wins tie-breakers vs Cleveland) from the discussion and procedures apply to other three teams.

The Ravens win tie-breakers and are granted first WC spot.

ALL THREE TEAMS then enter the next round of tie-breaking process. Cleveland was only eliminated from the first step and is still eligible in subsequent steps.

Cleveland wins tie-breaker over both Miami and Vegas and gets the second spot.

-OR- Cleveland wins tie-breaker over only one of these teams and gets the third spot.

-OR- Cleveland loses tie-breakers with both teams and misses playoffs (but at least not because to the stupid rule that defines best team in division in every round of determination).
==================


==================
Scenario #2: Here's how the Browns could get screwed...
Baltimore, Cleveland, Vegas and Miami are all tied at 10-6 (same teams and circumstances as above)... Cleveland is eliminated (because Baltimore wins tie-breakers vs Cleveland) from the discussion and procedures apply to other three teams.

Miami wins tie-breaker and becomes the first team to win WC spot.

NOW the cycle restarts with Cleveland again being eliminated by Baltimore.

Vegas wins tie-breaker and becomes the second team to win WC spot.

Cycle starts again with two remaining teams... obviously Baltimore wins the last spot as they hold division tie-breakers over Cleveland.
==================


IN ESSENCE Cleveland could conceivably own tie-breaker advantages over both Miami and Vegas and still miss the playoffs because of the "same division" poison pill.

Good stuff there ^

I'm going to root for the Browns and against anyone in contention for the WC...even if that means rooting for the Cheaters

I would guess I average less than a post a day.

OK, let me discuss your scenario #1, because I understand it differently.

Start with your line which reads, " The Ravens win tie breakers and are granted the first wild-card spot.

(All 4 divisions have 4 teams, the division winners were in first place in each division and got a Berth as division winners:
We then have 10-6 teams all in 2nd place in their original 4 team divisions except for the Browns, 3rd place-which equals out of consideration.

After Baltimore gets in, they again go back to the original,
faced with 3 other teams in 2nd place of their own division, and the Browns in 3rd place in the AFC north,
so step 1, before any others are looked at,
Browns 3rd place- equals removed from consideration,

Because the Raiders would be 2nd place for the Afc west behind the Chiefs, 2nd place 10-6
Dolphins 2nd place Afc east behind the Bills, 2nd place 10-6
and Colts or Titans that didn't already get in as division winner would be 2nd place 10-6 behind the other for the Afc south.

NFL: Tie Breaking procedures, 3 or more clubs, from different divisions,
#1. "apply the division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest," ((((where i point to 2nd place/3rd place, as i understand it)))), "ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step #2.

Still #1. " The original seeding within a division upon application of the tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two wild card participants."
(written before they expanded to 3 wild cards per conf: beginning this year)

(OK, So the Browns CAN get in as a 3rd place team, because each round only eliminates one team at a time,
BUT, As I understand,
The Browns must have at least a half game lead, in W-L-T percentage over the 2nd place team in either the Afc west, AFc East, or Afc South,
OR,
Be 2nd place or better in the AFC North besting Baltimore or Pittsburgh this year. (ehh Cincinnati)

To the part of the your post I made white, I think I get where our understandings differ:

As I understand it, "that stupid rule 2nd place vs.3rd place is still the first tie breaker as long as they are dealing with 3 or more teams, and doesn't go away until they are looking at only two teams. I understand it as applying to teams from different divisions,

I think I get where you are coming from that that stupid rule only applies inside a same division, but the part I read it off of at operations.nfl.com was the section on wild card tie breakers, 3 or more teams, different divsiions, and it's #1.

I may be wrong.
Whichever one of us is wrong, it's going to be Something to watch, if these Browns can get there!

edit: Another way I may be understanding this wrong is if you are saying...
That once Baltimore gets in:
The Browns original 3rd place in the afc north is equal to other divsions, original 2nd place in their divisions because all teams ahead of any of them, once in the playoffs are no longer considered ahead of of any of them, and all the teams divisional standings would be remaining div. leader, ... but that's not how it reads to me.

Well, there is at least 1.

THROW - I think our interpretations are different because you are overlooking the fact that the slate is essentially wiped clean once Baltimore is in.

Once Baltimore is in (and, again, we're just using an example that says they win the tie-breaker with the Browns) the same division tie-breaker no longer applies. There is still a three team tie-breaker process, but there is no longer a same division caveat.

I was only, referencing the three team tie-breaker process; which is outside of the same division tie-breaker process.

Now that I read your edit, that's exactly what I'm saying. There is no "second or third place" consideration once the division leader has been established. Doesn't matter that you finished third as long as protocol is being followed each time a WC team is established. Once one of the teams (from a division with two qualifying teams) is awarded a WC berth, the next is no longer subject to the "same divsion" caveat.

Think of it this way: If your theory were correct, it would be very rare for more than one team from a division to have WC berths. In fact, the only way it would be possible is if they both had better records than the other teams. Yet here is the history of multiple teams going from the same division... Notice the nice little nugget where the Browns were eliminated in 2007



History of multiple teams from a division receiving WC Berth
Since the change to 4 divisions per conference in the 2002 NFL season, this has happened 6 times, twice in the NFC East, once in the NFC South, and 3 times in 3 different AFC divisions.

2006 NFL season: NFC East (10-6 Philadelphia Eagles, 9-7 Dallas Cowboys, 8-8 New York Giants *Packers, Rams and Panthers were also 8-8)

2007 NFL season: NFC East (13-3 Dallas Cowboys, 10-6 New York Giants, 9-7 Washington Redskins *in this case, all other teams were no better than 8-8)

2007 NFL season: AFC South (13-3 Indianapolis Colts, 11-5 Jacksonville Jaguars, 10-6 Tennessee Titans *BROWNS were also 10-6).

2011 NFL season: AFC North (12-4 Baltimore Ravens, 12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-7 Cincinnati Bengals *Titans also had 9-7 record).

2013 NFL season: AFC West (13-3 Denver Broncos, 11-5 Kansas City Chiefs, 9-7 San Diego Chargers *in this case, all other teams were no better than 8-8).

2017 NFL season: NFC South (11–5 New Orleans Saints, 11–5 Carolina Panthers, 10–6 Atlanta Falcons *in this case, all other teams were no better than 9-7).

For an unrelated reason, I visited the 2020 browns season on wiki well known place, and if you want to see what they say,
Browns 2020 season, go to the very bottom, (I tried to copy and paste but, ehh I don't understand it, )

They explain every teams position, with a footnote, and there are 3 footnotes explaining each time the div, tiebreak is used to eliminate the Browns, round after round, before other teams were considered.

Because they are 3rd place in their division, so if you don't believe nfl.com maybe wikipedia displaying the process can spell it out

https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Cleveland_Browns_season

What you're reading on Wikipedia is a real life situation as I described in Scenario #2. That does not change any of the facts in Scenario #1.

I'm not making it up or misunderstanding the rules. Maybe it's too hard to explain, I tried my best with the above post.

You work through protocols and berths are awarded ONE TEAM AT A TIME. After each berth is awarded, you start over at square-one. Once Baltimore (or whoever holds tie-breaker in our division) "gets in", the stupid division rule no longer applies. Period. End of story.

The stupid division rule always applies as long as there are 3 or more teams still tied when they go back to square one as you call it. Period. End of story.

I don't think the Browns are getting in the playoffs.

I guarantee the Browns are not getting in the playoffs, this year unless, they either, (cincy gets back in, Not happening),
Achieve 2nd place above Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the Afc north,

Or have at least a half game lead in winning percentage over 2(two) of the other 3 divisions 2nd place teams. Look,

1, 2, 3, and 4, can = divisions
A, will = divisin winners, B=2nd place, C=3rd place, etc.
<1> <2> <3> <4> can = sequence or placing
X, will = a random division that has the highest win% of remaining divisions 1,2,3,or4,
(+ - 1/2 ) will = winning percentage.

There are <7> playoff teams, they will be filled in this order.
<first>,1A,...2A,...3A,...4A...
then XB (with the best record/tbreaker)... wins the first wild card

Then the next wild card spot will go to
... XB <2nd place> unless XC = greater than, we'll say at least (1/2 winning percentage over any other remaining "TWO" Xb's

because, in this case
if 2C is tied with XB...
and 3B= (-1/2 or more) and 4B = (-1/2 or more)...

Then XC, and XB, are only two teams, "tied and in the tiebreaker" ( and the division rule does not apply ) yay \0/

but... if...(whew) if, if 3 teams are still tied it will always apply.
All I was trying to do was make this chart.

1A... 2A... 3A... 4A...

XB...(2B)...3B(-1/2) ... 4B((-1/2)...

... 2C(+1/2)... is the only way C gets in,

Exactly

Too much to worry about right now.

Let's start by at least being 10-6 and see what happens with the Raiders, Dolphins, Colts, Ravens and Titans.

It could be worse. A 5 or 6 win team is getting in in the NFC over much better teams.

we will make the playoffs. We may lose in the first round, but, I'm pretty confident we will be the last seed. (barring injuries or mass covid issues)

Eagles, mathematically could get to 10-5-1.

I think the Eagles, can get to 7-8-1, if losing to the Browns,
or 8-7-1 if they beat the Browns.
Seahawks, saints, skins, Browns and ? Giants?,
I'll look again.

who cares

In week 7 the Browns were in position to be in the playoffs if they were that week.

Since then the Browns have been out of the playoffs.

I don't think the Browns get in the playoffs without a win over Baltimore at home, or Pittsburgh at home, at least one or the other.

I don't know how the Browns beat either of those teams without passing touchdowns to wide receivers.

(There are already injuries, Beckhams inury is huge.
Chubbs injury was Huge,

The same with Teller, Hooper, and Hubbard.