DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum AFC Playoff Chase Today (Discussion)

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Playoff Watch 1.0: In the driver’s seat
Franchise is hot and should finish the season with a winning record

By Barry Shuck Nov 25, 2020, 4:33am EST


https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2020/11/25/21611873/playoff-watch-1-0-in-the-drivers-seat


The Cleveland Browns are currently 7-3-0. No, that is not a misprint. Don’t touch that dial. The lunatics still are not in control of the asylum.

Not only are they 7-3-0, but they will control their destiny from this point on. Read that again: they control their destiny with an eye on the playoffs. This season, along with four division winners in the AFC, there will also be awarded an extra Wild Card spot for a total of three.

Before Sunday’s 22-17 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland was slotted in the eighth position. That is eighth out of seven spots. However, quite a bit happened on the field to assist the Browns’ quest of finally getting back into playoff mode. The Baltimore Ravens lost which owned the sixth spot, and now are slotted eighth. The New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins all lost. Each one was Cleveland’s competition for the post-season bids.

Will the Browns make the playoffs? Let’s examine what the other teams are doing, and who has the best chances of making the post-season.

AFC North Division

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-0-0

The Steelers defeated one of the worst clubs in the league this year, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Browns have the Jags on their schedule next week. Pittsburgh was up 17-3 at the half and limited Jacksonville to just 73 yards rushing.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 in the division and 7-0 in conference play and will come down to themselves and the Kansas City Chiefs for that elusive Number 1 seed. It is doubtful the Browns nor Ravens will catch them for the division crown. The Steelers play the Ravens Thanksgiving night in a must-see game. It is difficult to imagine rooting for Pittsburgh, but another Ravens loss would only help the Browns.

Remaining games are the Football Team, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Colts then Browns so there are some games they could definitely lose.

Last five games: 5-0. Toughest opponents remaining: Ravens, Bills, Colts, Browns

Post-season probability: 99%

Cleveland Browns 7-3-0

Beating the Eagles was expected. Wins over the Jaguars and both New York clubs are assumed .The problem games are against the good teams which Cleveland has had issues with this season. The good news, however, is that the Browns have the tie-breaker against Indianapolis and also play the Steelers the final game of the season. This may be a game that Pittsburgh doesn’t care if they win or not right before the playoffs and may prefer to rest their starters. So a cheap win is possible.

Baltimore Ravens 6-4-0

With another Baltimore loss Sunday 30-24 to the Tennessee Titans, the Ravens dropped from the sixth seed to the eighth slot. Their game this Thursday against the Steelers is critical. At 2-1 in the division race, a Ravnes win would bring Pittsburgh and Baltimore into identical 3-1 division records. Where they are hurting is their conference win-loss record currently at 4-4. This alone may prove to be their biggest hurdle because best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference is the second tie-breaker right behind head-to-head games.

Division Leaders
AFC East
Buffalo Bills 6-3-0

Last five games: 3-2. Toughest opponents remaining: Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins

Post-season probability: 90%

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 7-3-0

Last five games: 3-2. Toughest opponents remaining: Titans, Raiders, Steelers

Post-season probability: 69%

AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 9-1-0

Last five games: 5-0. Toughest opponents remaining: Buccaneers, Dolphins, Saints

Post-season probability: 99%

Philadelphia Eagles v Cleveland Browns
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
Wild Cards
#5. Tennessee Titans 7-3-0

Sunday: beat the Ravens 30-24. Last five games: 2-3. Toughest opponents remaining: Colts, Browns, Packers


AD
Post-season probability: 82%

#6. Cleveland Browns 7-3-0

Sunday: beat the Eagles 22-17. Last five games: 3-2. Toughest opponents remaining: Steelers, Ravens, Titans

Post-season probability: 74%

#7. Las Vegas Raiders 6-4-0

Sunday: lost to the Chiefs 35-31. Last five games: 3-2. Toughest opponents remaining: Colts, Dolphins

Post-season probability: 87%

On the Outside
#8. Baltimore Ravens 6-4-0

Sunday: lost to the Titans 30-24. Last five games: 2-3. Toughest opponents remaining: Steelers, Browns, Cowboys

Post-season probability: 54%

#9. Miami Dolphins 6-4-0

Sunday: lost to Denver Broncos 20-13. Last five games: 4-1. Toughest opponents remaining: Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills

Post-season probability: 39%

#10. Denver Broncos 4-6-0

Sunday: beat the Miami Dolphins 20-13. Last five games: 2-3. Toughest opponents remaining: Saints, Chiefs, Panthers, Bills, Raiders

Post-season probability: 2%

Final thought
NFL clubs who have a better win-loss record than the Browns:
Pittsburgh 10-0-0
Kansas City 9-1-0
New Orleans 8-2-0
Cleveland 7-3-0
(tied with six other 7-3 teams)
Looking Ahead: results that could help the Browns
Thursday

Steelers over Ravens

Sunday

Falcons over Raiders

Titans over Colts

Cardinals over Patriots

Jets over Dolphins

Saints over Broncos

Every game is pretty much a playoff game from here on out for the Browns.

If the Browns lose one more, Their Done, pretty much,

They are barely hanging in there, and looking around, not only,

Not only can the Titans and or Colts kick them out,
But the Bills and Chiefs, being out front, means the Dolphins or Patriots wouldn't be a div winner, and That could kick out the Browns.

Then, the Raiders, are probably ahead of the Browns unless they lose one spot in the W-L column.

Even the Patriots, could kick the Browns out eventually if they overtake the Dolphins, and the article didn't talk of them, (The Pats lost to the Texans last week, helped)

What's helping the Browns? (from the past?) Sweeping the Bengals, and the Bengals beating the Titans,

The Browns two closest adversaries, (aside from being behind the Raiders, and forgetting the colts a second, and hoping bad luck continues in baltlimore; if you forget those 3, the Browns two closest adversaries are the Dolphins, and the Titans)

So on that above note of sweeping the Bengals, let's hope the Dolphins, ... lose at the Jets, so they can split w/their 4th place team and hope the Bengals beat the Dolphins the following week.

(In the same way the Bengals beating the Titans helped the Browns,... The Browns beating, and not losing to the texans, did Not help the titans.)

Texans are a 7 loss team, they play the colts two more, and the Titans last game of the year, nice if the Texans win all 3 of those.

If it would come down to minium 4 common opponents with the Dolphins, they would be Bengals, Jets, Raiders, and "Jaguars". (Dolphins play at the Raiders week 16, the next to last week)

If the Dolphins win out,(get the div title and put the bills in the wild card race) and Browns and Bills are tied... after the clubs records vs the afc,, (today the Bills hold a 5-2, over 4-3, records vs the afc tiebreaker over the Browns 1 v 1. with more games to play.

j/c

We're 7-3 for the first time in forever ... I'm happy to take the rest of the season exactly like Stekanski - one game at a time and see where it goes. I didn't expect to make the playoffs before the season started and that isn't the be-all end-all for me this year. GREAT if it happens but ... Happy to just enjoy the ride.

Agreed I said earlier I had 3 Goals going in :

1. 8-8 Non Losing Season First Since 2007

2. 9-7 First Winning Season Since 2007

3. 10-6 + First Playoff Since 2002

Whose done?

They just have to have that attitude going into it, because there are so many chances for the team to miss out.
Whose? Who's, their, they're, hmm? The team in general.

(He caught! me.)

Who’s on first? Haha had to

I would bet a lot of money that a 12-4 team makes the playoffs.

11-5 would probably make it as well.

10-6 is anyone's guess.

I’m going to guess that there will be 1-2 teams that are 10-6 that won’t make it this year

It looks that way early, but we gotta remember a lot of the teams at 6-4/7-3 still play each other. Dolphins play Raiders and Bills. We play the Ravens and Titans. Raiders play the Colts. etc and so on.

Not to mention most of them play the Chiefs and Steelers still, so that will be some losses tossed in.

I can see maybe one 10-6 team missing (only cuz we're the Browns and that's the type of thing that would happen to us), but it's not likely, and super highly improbable for 2 to miss.

Consider how 2-3 weeks ago all the "experts" had the Ravens going 14-2 (or better lol)

We're still at a point where this is maybe not so far fetched. Playoff spots would be, seeded,

1, Steelers 13-3, lose to ravens Browns Bills
2, Titans 12-4 or chiefs, just a guess as the same record, beat colts jags lions packers Texans

3, Chiefs 12-4, lose to Broncos, dolphins, saints,

4, Whomever shakes out as winner of the AFC east is the only 10-6 that makes it, I'll guess, Dolphins, 10-6 division winner. (lose to Raiders, lose to patriots

5, Ravens 12-4 they win out, first wild card

6, Browns 11-5, they ("beat") the titans, and Steelers Jets and Jags, lose to Ravens Giants

7 Colts, 11-5 they sweep the Texans beat the Raiders, Jags, lose to titans and steelers.

Out, Raiders, 10-6 lose to colts and broncos

out Patriots 10-6, they beat the Cardinals, dolphins bills, chargers, rams, jets,

out, Bills 10-6 they beat the steelers, 49ers, Chargers, lose to Broncos, Dolphins, Patriots

out, Broncos 10-6 they beat the Saints, Chiefs, Panthers, bills, chargers raiders.

Four 10-6 teams out, Just One in.
Still possible, for a day or so.

Browns should beat the Jags today and move to 8-3. I like their chances of making the playoffs.

We not only should we have to. Losing today would be devastating to our playoff chances. Winning today with 2 against the Jets and Giants, whom we should beat, will give us 10 wins. That should get us in, hopefully. I don't think we will beat the Steelers, Titans or Ravens although the Ravens have looked beatable the last few weeks.

It’d be awfully nice if Atlanta or the Jets could win, though I doubt both

Atlanta demolished the Raiders today, you got your wish.

*updating again

we are still on pace to get into the playoffs from what I expected


We should win 6/8 of these games (2 more to go)

Houston/won
Philly/won
NYG
Jacksonville/won
Jets
Cin/won
Las Vegas/lost
Pitt


We will need to win 1 game against these teams to get in the playoffs. *accomplished

Indy/won
Pitt/lost
Baltimore
Tenn

I would expect that 10-6 gets us in the playoffs as the 7 seed.

we're currently fifth... if playoffs started today we'd play the Bills...

I'm disheartened.
Playoffs don't start today.

Ravens, remaining
schedule looks easy as fudge!

Browns, if the Browns lose to the Ravens, that's 5,
5 gimme wins for the Ravens who are 6-4

After the rescheduled pittsburg game,
they the ravens have Cowboys at home,

then the Browns, (if the Browns are planning on losing this one they may as well kiss any playoff berth good bye)

because that's 2 winnable, games and the Ravens are set to win their final 3

jags, Giants, Bengals, final 3 weeks,

Anyone know the Qb of any one of those teams?

Where are the Ravens losses going to come from? If the Ravens have a better record than the Browns then the 3rd place in the div. poison pill would put the Browns right back on the outside looking in.

It's why I say, the Browns, Don't have any more they can lose,

Browns have to, approach all remaining games as, if you lose you are out!

Incidentially... Browns, Mathmatically eliminated the jaguars today from the playoffs, according to the website I look at.

That Ravens at Steelers game is huge!

If the Ravens beat the Steelers.. the Ravens, could end up 11-5, even IF! The Browns BEAT the Ravens.

Which would put anything less than 11-5 for the Browns as Browns 3rd place in the div.

If todays game is any indication. Nothing is guaranteed.

The Jags are playing people down to the wire.

The Giants are playing for their playoff lives.

Its not that much of a cake walk.

Honestly, the Jags with Glennon looked way better than the past few weeks. He’s at least serviceable

Yes, I will not be donning the black and yeller and actively cheering for the Steelers.. but quietly, subtly, I will be hoping they win.. then I will shower and feel better about it.

I'm confused, while finishing 2nd in the division ahead of the Ravens would be great, the goal is to make the playoffs, correct?

So the teams still in the race who can mathematically catch us:

Browns 8-3
Dolphins 7-4
Colts 7-4
Ravens 6-4
Raiders 6-5
Patriots 5-6

Browns have Titans, Ravens, Jets, Giants, Steelers... three tough games, Browns need to win 1 of them (preferably the Ravens) and not lose to the NY teams. Likely finish, 11-5.

Dolphins have the toughest road, still have to play Bengals, Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, Bills... Very likely they will lose at least 2 or 3 more games. Likely finish 9-7.

Colts have Texans twice, Raiders, Steelers, Jags.... Probably good for at least 2 more losses. Likely finish 9-7, maybe 10-6. We hold the tie-breaker over them.

Ravens have Steelers, Browns, Jags, Giants, Bengals... Pretty easy finish after the Steelers and Browns. Likely finish, 11-5.

Raiders have Jets, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos... A couple games there but not a real hard finish. Likely finish 10-6. Out

Patriots have Chargers, Rams, Dolphins, Bills, Jets... Still a good chance they lose at least 1 or 2 more games. Likely finish, 8-8.

So we finish:

Browns 11-5
Ravens 11-5
Colts 10-6
Raiders 10-6
Dolphins 9-7
Patriots 8-8

And the 3rd wild card is whoever has the tie-breaker between the Colts and Raiders.

don't be confused any longer just get this,

The loser of the Ravens at Browns game, has a
HUGE MONGOUS probability to miss the playoffs, altogether
55%,

Because the best most likely, for the Loser of the Ravens Browns Monday Night game, is 10-6,
and 10-6 3rd place, loses all 3 way tie breakers,

and after the winner of the Ravens at Browns MNF game gets in, 5 of 7 playoff spots are used up, 2 remain,

and There is almost no probabilities that that loser of the Ravens at Browns MNF game is either behind 9-7 or worse,
or Tied, in a 4 way tie at 10-6 with two spots to go
and the other 3 teams would be the 2nd place teams in the AFC West, AFC South, and AFC East,

Which means that head to head and other tie breakers won't even come into play until spot #8.
There are only 7 Spots.

And I know the Titans and Colts split, head to head, for fisrt place in the AFC South, but the week 1 win by the jaguars means the Colts best div. record by the end is 4-2, the Titans, 3-1 in the division could still end up 5-1 in the division.
only chance we have of the colts being the div winner if they catch the titans is if
the titans lose to one of the jaguars or Texans.

... forget all that,

The question was,
" While finishing 2nd ahead of the Ravens would be great, the goal is to make the playoffs, correct?

I'll answer, Read it this way..

"While breathing is great, the goal is to stay alive, correct?"

Read it that way.

At 8-3, the #Browns now have a 74.0% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN FPI

https://twitter.com/Jake_Trotter/status/1333429914108825601

Never give this organization an excuse to say "Hold My Beer".

You got that right. I am looking at the two games against the New York teams no differently as those against the Titans, Ravens, & Steelers.

I'm Sure, I convinced myself in 1999 that there was a greater than 74.0 percent chance I wouldn't have to watch the Browns lose to the steelers 29 of the next 31 times.

I'm sure Fans were convinced there was >74.0 percent chance The Browns would win more than one game with new, accoladed head coach Hue Jackson in 2016, but there were so many injuries.

I'm sure after the injuries went away and the Browns were healthy, few thought there was a greater than 74.0 percent chance that they'd follow that up with a(n) 0-16 campaign with a 2nd year of the same plan,

and that He would be head coach on opening day of 2018?

I'm sure there are Browns fans who historically know how much an overcoming feat beating the Steelers the final game of this year is going to require?

And the same for Beating the Titans on the road this week,

And the same for Beating a semi healthy Ravens team on Monday night football in Cleveland Browns' fan mostly empty stadium.

And I'm here to tell Browns fans, that, if the Browns only plan on beating the Giants and Jets, and if there is a log Jam of teams in the AFC at 10-6 which there likely will be,

That 3rd place teams in a division, (loser of the Ravens Browns MNF game), and (Patriots today)

Won't get in, because, this year, The Dolphins and Bills are, "both good"

The Raiders and Chiefs, are "both good"

The Colts and Titans are "both good"
and
The Steelers and (Ravens at Browns MNF winner) are "both good"

So when there is a log jam at 10-6, with the
Bills, Colts, Raiders, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, and Titans, (7 teams) at 10-6 or better, and only (2) of them can be division winners, (Chiefs and Steelers the other 2)

then a 5 way tie with 3 spots to fill
means still a 4 way tie with 2 spots to fill

and means still a 3 way tie with only 1 spot to fill,

which means any team 3rd place in it's division, (only the "loser" of the Ravens at Browns MNF matchup,

will still be eliminated from playoff contention of all ties involving 3 or more teams from different divisions of the same conference, before any other, 1 team v 1 team tie break is considered.
before head to head
before AFC record
before, anything else, except overall record.

So unless you plan to have at least a one game lead on all those other teams, (11-5) then the log jam at 10-6 would put the, (Ravens at Browns Monday Nigh Football; loser)
On the outside looking in, start to finish,
Even if it's the Colts who you beat, head to head.

because 2nd place in the AFC South, -colts
is by rule the winner over 3rd place in the AFC North (-ravens vs browns on MNF loser.) .. if the tie is 3 or more teams.
Which is trending very likely.

exactly. I actually think the Giants are dangerous .. they have decent weapons on offense. Jones being out would hurt them of course.

If we can’t beat the Jets to make the playoffs (which may be the case at the time) then we would have to own that one

Actually , quick thought, Browns vs. Ravens Mathup MNF in two weeks
will be

The Single Biggest Regular Season matchup for the Browns
since the 2nd steeler game of the 1994 playoff year,

(not remembering the details of the 2001-2002 playoff year) I'm still confident in that statement.

Huh? Did I miss a rule change? There is no preferential treatment for finishing second in your division. You either win the division or you go into the WC pool with everybody else.


We haven't played the Titans yet but it benefits us if the Titans win more games (excluding against us) and win the division pushing the Colts into the WC race. We already own the first tie-breaker against the Colts, which is head to head.

It may have been the different thread (remaining schedule) where we discussed this two weeks ago, but you are wrong,
we all looked at the rules and as long as the tie for a wild card selection involves 3 or more teams,(from separate divisions) the very fist thing that happens is all but the highest ranking (division ranking) i.e.2nd place before 3rd place) are removed from the discussion in each round of discussions involving 3 or more teams.

https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/
(^look at, 3 or more teams from not the same division)

if it's just 2 teams tied at a certain record, you are right, but if its' 3 or more teams, each time they look, then the 3rd place teams vs 2nd place teams in their respective divisional races will instantly be taken out of the picture.

I didn't learn this until last month and I've been thinking I knew for at least 25 years.

Thanks for clearing that up. I had not heard of this rule.

That said, I still believe that if we win any 1 of the tough games left and BOTH of the NY games, we get to 11-5 and we are probably in. Even if we don't beat the Ravens. I just don't see 2 of the 3, Raiders, Dolphins, Colts getting to 11-5.

Whoa! This just might be the first time that's ever been said in response to a TL post!

Mike Tyson, is that you? lol

Well if that's the case then we might be screwed. Still at least a 50 percent chance the ravens wind up with a better record than us. If we win the second game and split with them but end up with the same record then it comes down to division record. If our division record is the same as theirs then it comes down to strength of schedule, which I believe we would lose because thier schedule was not as weak as ours. I believe having the Patriots and chiefs on thier schedule would be the difference. Figures the one season we have a chance at making the playoffs the AFC is ridiculously competitive. Besides us the colts, raiders, dolphins, Bills, ravens and titans are all heavily immersed in the wild card race

JC

Still too many variables to really try to figure this out.

Just win as many as we can and see where the chips fall is my attitude.

Win out. Always need a goal. Might as well.

This division is murder compared some of the others out there.

Mine likewise. I don't think we have the juice to beat a surging Titans team or even a COVID-infected Ravens team...even if at "full" strength. We just aren't that team yet.

I'm not saying we don't have a chance here...I just think that those teams will out-physical us and when that's happened this year, we've really struggled.