DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum AFC Playoff Chase Today (Discussion)

I agree with you. Keep the 1-0 approach going.

Which is the right attitude to have.. I'm just an analytical nerd, I like to play with the numbers and the possibilities.

LOL! this is the equation everyone has been dreaming about

NO Shoot! hey I just figured out something,

Not sure which poster, because I've got the rule I wrote down right in front of me,

wow just figured this out,

Which poster 8 posts before said... " if we split with the ravens then they look at division record.

And if the Ravens and Browns have the same division record the next thing ' ( this part is not next on the tie break list) is strength of schedule and the ravens had a tougher schedule so the Browns won't get in.

NO, the next tie breaker, of inside the same division 2 teams, is common games.

and in this version of common games there is no mention of 4 games minimum but wouldn't matter,
So I pick up my paper of the Ravens schedule, and my memory of the Browns year and start counting common games,
(now assuming AAAHHH! Eeeek, The only way it reaches here is if the BRowns do the same vs the steelers in week 17, that the Ravens do against the Steelers, TOMORROW!

UGH. but, if the Steelers beat the ravens tomorrow, then the Steelers can beat the Browns in week 17 and if the Browns beat the Ravens next week having both been swept by the
swept by the steelers,
swept the bengals
and split with each other ravens and browns, then common games is the next here is the list from ravens schedule, (so awesome)

they beat the Texans week 2, (we beat the Texans
they beat the Washington, (we beat the WFT's)

eagles, we didn't play the eagles, doesn't matter

they beat the colts, (we beat the colts)...

they lost to the titans, ( We still get play the titans this week!!!)
that's what's so cool,

they still have to play the cowboys, We beat the cowboys

they still have to play the jaguars, (we beat the jaguars

they still have to play the giants, ( We still have to play the giants,

they would still have to beat the bengals week 17, (we've already swept the bengals.

Wow, Joe Burrows injury hurt the Browns playoff chances, oh well.

So,

If you beat the titans, and the Ravens, you will only have to beat the Giants to make the steeler game not even matter in a tie break w/ the ravens
vs. all other teams 1 v 1 it's still a complicated.

Rule: in the same division...
Two clubs...
tie break....
1, head to head
2, in the division W-L-T
3, Common games W-L-T, < that's where my post is at, strength of schedule comes in later, sometime after #4 which I stopped writing at because it shouldn't get that far, but after (3, common games W-L-T)
4, Vs the conference, (afc) W-L-T

The oh shoot moment, is, if you split with the Ravnens, and Beat the Titans, who the ravens already lost to,
And if the Steelers beat the Ravens tomorrow,

Then, if you beat the giants... you locked up the tie break and the record, so far as matching up with the ravens, at that point,
if all that happened, and you beat the giants, then
the Browns could sit their starters for the steeler game,

ehh, it's fun as long as the Browns keep winning.

Bottom line, Beating the Titans, and Beating the Ravens on MNF,

and then equaling in week 17, what the Ravens outcome vs the Steelers tomorrow is,

Sigh. The Titans game is the tie breaker,

THE TITANS, GAME, IS, THE , TIE BREAKER. Oy Vey. (not strength of schedule) (I know, until the giants kickoff, but)

The TITANS GAME IS THE TIE BREAKER.

At the risk of being a Blow hard, the next two games on the Browns schedule, are definetly the biggest two games the Browns have played since 2007.

On a scale of 1-10 the Titans game is an Eleven.

on a scale of 1-10 the Ravens game on MNF is a Sixteen!

and
depending on the remaining schedules outcomes the final regular season game vs the steelers on week 17,

on a scale of 1-10 the Steelers game may end up a Fifteen!

"eagles, we didn't play the eagles, doesn't matter"

We just played the Eagles 1 week ago

I forgot, they must be a really forgettable team, Ravens and Browns both beat the eagles.

Why not root for the Ravens?

Browns win the next 4 games.
Steelers lose to Ravens and Colts.
Browns beat Steelers final week of the season.
Browns are division champs.

Shoot for the stars man! We need to drop the loser mentality.

I think we have a good chance to beat the Ravens. We looked really bad against them in the first game of the season. But that was KS first game as a HC, the first game the team played using (yet another) new system, the first game of Hooper, Conklin, Wills, and Bryant being part of the offense, along with a myriad of defensive players, and all this after a truncated pre-season with no pre-season games. The Ravens, on the other hand, had fewer personnel changes, were playing for the same coaches in the same system coming of a very good season. They were MUCH better prepared to compete. This is no longer true. Throw in that the Ravens have been beaten 4 times since then, the Browns have been beaten twice.

The Browns have, in my view at least, improved on several fronts over the course of the season. The defense, as flawed as it is, is playing much better in the last several games than the first several. The offense has forged an identity. Baker is stepping up into the pocket, reading the field better, and not making turnovers. The image of the Ravens out-classing the Browns on all fronts, an image prevalent at the beginning of the season and reinforced by that first game, is, I think, no longer valid. We will see next week, but I think the teams are more even than most people recognize.

Because it is much less likely that you are going to knock off a team out of the division lead who is already 2 games ahead of you with a short span of games left,

then that that other team in your division is going to finish winning out their easier schedule and knock you out of the playoffs altogether.
and The steelers just winning any one of those would also knock you out altogether,
Basically,it is, Who is easier to shove into 3rd place, the Steelers right now, or the Ravens right now?

But believe as you wish

Agreed. Now if Baker could just hit those open receivers a little more we would really have something!!

if the Browns win 2 of the last 5 games we have an 81% chance of making the playoffs and win 4 of the last 5 100% chance.

i bet that 19% comes in when those 2 wins are just against NYJ/NYG

Guaranteed.

I bet that math assumes the Cowboys, Giants and Bengals all have their original opening day starters at qb when they play against the ravens,
and Bengals against dolphins,

assumes the Texans though out of it, are still as motivated as opening day for their upcoming games twice against the colts, and against the titans,

or math assumes the steelers, undefeated, are no more motivated than on opening day

and doesn't take into account how teams like the Raiders and Patriots are going to put up a valiant effort when faced with elimination during their final game of contention.

Same as math probably thinks snow will stick to the ground or pavement without regard to the previous days temperatures, whether that ground was frozen the day before or retaining the suns heat.

I've seen ice melting, have drivin over puddles of melted ice when it's 1 farenheit outside with a little shunshine in January.

Browns and Ravens have definitely trended in different directions since their first meeting (not even taking the COVID situation into account). Ravens are beatable, Titans are similar... but both teams have the mentality of eating our lunch. First thing's first... we have to get as healthy as possible.

The league might have adjusted to the Ravens O, but I'm not so sure the we have the horses to do so. As we've seen so often, the Browns could be just what the doctor ordered for a faltering Ravens team.

Yeah, I think mentality is our biggest challenge over the next two games. Do we expect to win the game and conduct ourselves in a confident, yet focused way? This part really seems to be that last glass ceiling we need to break.

Agree with the last 2 posts here. Big challenges.

I actually think we are more likely to beat the Titans - we are coming in as underdogs, the band wagoners are all lumping on teh Titans.... when we play the Ravens there is a good chance we'll be favored or talked up because of the Ravens covid issues and struggles to win, and that'd be when we are typically ripe for being punched in the mouth and lose.

I think by the time we meet up with the Ravens they'll have this COVID disaster behind them (unless it keeps going a little longer). We'll be getting them as full-strength as we could expect at this point in the season.

I believe so too. But Lamar and those having gone through Covid protocol/sit outs will only have a very very short time back at practice before the game. I think 'the media' will think that's a huge disadvantage but I think the Ravens are such a well coached team I think they will be ready and fresh ... and desperate.

Steelers just did us a major solid. If they lose a game prior to week 17, they will rest their players and could give us a second gift.

Ravens are 6-5 ... they’ll be 7-5 coming to our place and we’ll be 8-4. That’s a massive game

Why would they rest their players with either 0 or 1 lose in week 17? Unless KC already has 3 by then, they would either be forgoing an undefeated season (ha) or risk losing out on the 1st place conference and the following by week.

O ye of little faith.

Thought Pittsburgh really struggled against a depleted Ravens.

Why do you state as fact we'll be 8-4?

because I bet on us and I never win my bets m

I hope the Cowboys beat the Ravens too.

It seems more likely we will be 9-3 and they will be 7-5 when we play --- barring the rona, injuries, or weather

Ok, so playoff site, which has all these numbers, last week I looked at only 3, it was the dolphins "no playoffs" prob percentage and colts "no playoffs' prob percentages
they were like 51% and 53% but the Browns was way low, but if you add up the Browns and Ravens it was like 58%

So that's the level of setback the Browns vs Ravens loser will face as things go toward 3 way ties at 10-6, For what it's worth
after, the steelers Ravens game ended the others I think stayed the same
51%, 53%, but the Browns and Ravens added together went from 58% to 60%

The further the season goes along, and fewer chances for 2 win teams to beat 10 win teams, I think the real odds against both the 2nd and 3rd place teams of the AFC North getting in is more like 85-90% my guess.

not sure where you are looking for this info.

the browns are between an 81-83% chance to make the playoffs.

We really struggled against a depleted Jacksonville.

Glennon was an upgrade at QB imho.

We were depleted also.

For the last 20 years when the Steelers would come back from a deficit to beat us by 1-3 points nobody said they really struggled.

All that matters is 1 more point on the board at the end of the game.

Nobody will look back at history and see that teams struggled, refs messed up, teams cheated, etc. all they see is Ws and Lombardi Trophies.

For once I'm happy to be on the good side of "struggling"

I get a win is a win. It's just that struggling to beat the likes of JAX, PHI, CIN does not give me a lot of confidence for playing good teams.

If it is a case of playing down to lesser opponents while being able to rise up to better ones, then fine. I want to see the second half of that.

it's Playoffstatus com, does every sport,

It doesn't matter too much to me if the Browns are 81% to get in, because I know how much that can shift with just one bad week.

And I think we saw how good Baltimores defense looked against Pittsburgh yesterday,

But the Browns didn't have Nick Chubb on the field when they played Pittsburgh last time,

And ( I REALLY wish they would bring up Willies off the practice squad) if the Browns could find a passing game,
( I'm losing all faith to support Jarvis Landry anymore, it's just missed expectations game after game in my opinion)

I'm starting to think, If the Browns had a passing attack, they could beat anybody, they could win the freaking super bowl.

In the Opening day game loss to Balt.
The Tight ends were almost 100% on catches per targets and they didn't throw very often too them.

The Browns Offense, is like MC Hammer, with his first million dollars? (didn't he lose all his fortune real fast)

So, my point is, I'm starting to feel better that the Browns maybe, coulda woulda, could beat ONE, of the 3 tough teams,

Or , that maybe the Colts, dolphins, Patriots, stop at 9-7 or worse.

The question at this point becomes are we playing to the level of our opponents? I mean there are cases where no matter who you play, you only play well enough to beat them. That could be a poor team, a mediocre team or a good team.

I know we were throttled by both Pittsburgh and Baltimore but that was very early in the season. I also know we have beaten poor teams by slim margins.

But we are well into the season and I think we have to see if we have risen to the point that we win against good opponents. I'm not extremely optimistic about that quandary but it remains to be seen. Sometimes teams tend to find a way to win no matter the level of their opponents. Sadly that seems to be a trend the Titans have had to a large extent this season as well.

What I'm saying is there's no such thing as struggling to beat a team.

The Patriots are indisputably the best franchise of the last 2 decades in any sport, and maybe of all time, and they won a TON of games by 3 or less, and even lost to the lowly dolphins a few times along the way.

Each week is different. Every team in the NFL has world class talent. Matchups, mistakes, injuries etc.

You can't really compare each game week to week. Even if we TORCHED the Jags it would have no bearing on the Ravens pass rush flustering Baker the next like they did week 1.

The Titans are completely different style and will be completely different gameplan to beat them, not to mention hopefully Myles is back.

No use worrying about how much we won by, just that we found a way to win that week.