DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Defense... Wdwgfh? Part 2

Patrick Queen had a PFF grade of 29.8. I don't think I trust that grade

j/c

I'm not sure that the defense can be completed this offseason. I see constraints due to the need to preserve cap space for crucial re-signings of our own free agents. I keep hearing that the salary cap might be reduced because of revenue losses.

I think we can improve the defense but not complete the defense. Some work will remain for future offseasons. So, my approach would be to set some priorities and address those thoroughly.

We still need to get another DE to pair with Myles. I would make that #1. At pick 26 we arent likely to get one of the top ten pass rushers. Some of those guys haven't played a lot because of Covid or they have opted out or they are OLB's, not DE's. I would target a couple of guys just outside the top ten and probably reach for one of them at 26. I like Jaelin Phillips of Miami and I might like Ronnie Perkins of Oaklahoma more.

My second priority is the secondary. I would target multiple cornerbacks and safeties. The guys in the 2-3 round range when we pick that I like best are cornerback Paulson Adebo, Oregon and safties, Tulanoa Hufanga USC safety and Andre Cisco of Syracuse. Those two guys would add SS and FS depth to a depleted unit.

The third priority for me is the interior D Line. I would like to get more stout in that unit. Hufanga's cousin and fellow USC Trojan Marlon Tuilupolu has a very impressive skill set. I also like Tommy Togiai of Ohio State.

I realize professional GMs don't predetermine what positions they will draft at a particular slot. But the guys mentioned above will likely all be gone by the end of round 3. If Barry likes any of them he'll need to get them early.

I still have a man-crush on Zaven Collins but I think we can find linebacker help in the 4th round or later. Players taken in these rounds will have some holes in their game but could be developed over time and give us some S/T and sub package contributions now. Charles Snowden, Garret Wallow, Ventrell Miller or Tony Fields are the types of guys I'd expect us to look at.

yeah, Queen’s pass coverage was horrid all year. Teams targeted him at will. He’s good against the run though.

I'm responding to you, though you're not the only one....

Why do you put Dline over the secondary, in terms of priority? Is it because we now have an even bigger whole with Vernon gone? I just don't see how FS ever dropped from our #1 need (and #2, whatever it is, isn't close).

For me, its a macro point of view and not specific to any current year or team situation.....

Applying pressure on the QB screws up EVERYTHING. Timing, routes, mental reaction, footwork, arm release, body posture, WR responsiveness to recognizing broken play, etc.

Investing in the defensive line with applying pressure in mind should always be a focus, IMO. I think it allows the secondary to then react based on what they see in front of them and the movements/decisions the QB is forced to make.

Overall, investing in the trenches on both sides of the ball is always high on my list and our offensive line can limit the pressure applied as well.

To add to what I said, if you have a d-line that cannot consistently apply pressure, I don't care how good a CB might be, them continuously having to react to a new route adjustment if the QB has all day to throw will usually never be a winning battle on the defensive side.

j/c

When I think about an evaluation of Woods this year I get the same thoughts as I did last year when evaluating Baker at season's end.

Sure...there were obvious things that need(ed) to be better...but the circumstances were about as odd as they could get. To the point that one almost has to completely throw out the year that just passed and go back to why the guy is here in the first place and what credentials did he have/show to be here.

A near throw-away year for a reasonable and complete evaluation. JMO

I think Memphis's response was concise and addresses a lot of the reasoning for prioritizing "D-Line". I use quotes there because although it's obvious that DE is a line position, pass-rushing is the predominant function the Browns' need to improve.

In terms of positional value and market demand if you want a starting-caliber DE you will probably need to take him early. Once that's done I would use multiple high round picks to address the secondary. Those guys I mentioned as DB draft targets are generally ranked in the top 100.

We can argue about the unknown health status of Delpit and Greedy (I prefer not to). But I'm optimistic that one or both will be available to the team next season. I don't think Berry misleads with his comments. I understand that there is no advantage for him to overstate their recovery. So, I believe they will be available. We should still add more players on the back end. I would do so aggressively in this draft. Just not with the first round pick.

The only thing that may determine we take a different route in the draft is that pass rushers get drafted high. We aren't usually in a situation where we're drafting at #26. There could easily be five or six pass rushers already drafted by the time we make our pick.

Then the question might boil down to do we take the seventh rated pass rush in the draft or do we take the second best FS in the draft? At that point the choice becomes far more difficult for the talent evaluators.

Give these links time to load:

Hufanga
Adebo

Cisco

Bonus: Marlon Tuipulotu, I think he can two-gap but the dude has excellent athleticism for a DT.
Tuipulotu

Whether or not we go after a Zaven Collins is entirely dependent upon what we can do in Free Agency.

IF we can secure a DE opposite Myles, a DT next to Richardson, and perhaps one CB and one FS - and they don't have to be All-World talents, but just above average... then I see little problem with us then putting a premier talent at LB between all of that, and that would actually take us to another level as it closes a hole in the middle of the D.... BUT, before it can really be worthwhile to do that, we have to address the main things that make this defense go.

I'm a big fan of Collins. I hyped him in Pure Football before the Tulsa/Cincinnati game. I agree that if we address some of our other concerns in free agency then we may target him.

With that said, I hope we are not big buyers in FA this year.

I just don’t see how Collins is there at 26 after all the testing is done.

He won't be, we would have to move up to the 15 range.

Which is not a great idea because we need our picks now more than ever because we have players that are going to cost real money. Having cheap rookies is going to become a must real soon.

I mentioned that I don't want to go down a rabbit hole about Delpit but if the team has a firm understanding of his health that will also makes the DE vs secondary question easier to figure out.

I admit that my eyes are untrained about the nuances of drafting in general and DE in particular. My novice eyes don't see a lot of separation among the DEs, say from 7 to 12. What I like about Phillips is his fluidity and bend. What I like about Perkins is his combination of pass rush and impact on the running game.

I tend to agree, and it's not like we're "one player away". However, I'm a proponent of pushing more chips into the center of the table. Devil's advocate says Collins would be a cheap rookie, if you're giving away our extra 3rd and 4th for a can't miss that addresses a strong area of need - I'm all for it... and I think he's a can't miss.

Yeah, Collins is a bit of my own pipe dream. He’ll be gone before 20, at least.

I just see him as being a great equalizer to Lamar and the Steelers quick passing game too

1. There is no such thing as a can’t miss player.

2. If there is anything close to a can’t miss player he’s not available mid to late round.

Sure there are, they're drafted every year. The problem lies in correctly assessing a player as can't miss - to that end your point is true.

j/c

Link

I like several of the defenders mentioned at the bottom of this article. This is where I hope Andrew Berry does his shopping this year. Particularly, Witherspoon, Hooker, Tartt, and McMillan. There are other names on the list that I'm less familiar with except Ogunjobi.


Low-cost free agent signings that could make big impacts in 2021

Dec 26, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions defensive end Romeo Okwara (95) warms up before a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

By Brad Spielberger
Jan 27, 2021
We’ve written before about the dangers of NFL teams “winning in March.” Shelling out the biggest contracts for premium free agents does not necessarily lead to wins on the football field come September. In general, there’s an onus to overpay for the top players available each offseason as several clubs vie for their services, and more often than not those players have a hard time living up to their lofty new deals.

Still, it’s of course impossible — or impractical — to fill out a full 53-man roster simply through the draft. Clubs need to supplement their core of players with help from the outside, and quality pro scouting can go a long way in identifying the best fits for a particular team. The best additions can often be low-cost, one-year fliers on players coming off an injury, a down season or those who haven’t quite reached their potential. Maybe a player doesn't fit a particular system, or a simple change of scenery is necessary.



Every offseason, a handful of near-minimum signings end up making huge impacts, and this season was no different. Look no further than the four teams that just played in the Conference Championship games:

Kansas City Chiefs: CB Bashaud Breeland signed a one-year, $2 million contract for the 2019 season and followed that up with a one-year, $3 million contract for this season. Among all outside cornerbacks who saw at least 15 playoff snaps over 2019-20, Breeland’s overall grade of 82.2 ranks third, and his 84.7 coverage grade ranks second.

Buffalo Bills: RT Daryl Williams signed a one-year, $2.25 million contract for the 2020 season. Among all right tackles with at least 100 snaps in the 2020 regular season, Williams’ overall grade of 79.4 ranked ninth, his pass-blocking grade of 80.0 ranked fourth and his run-blocking grade of 76.9 ranked 11th.

Only three other right tackles finished with grades above 75.0 in both run blocking and pass blocking in 2020: Jack Conklin, Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Ramczyk.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He’s not so cheap this season playing on the franchise tag, but ED Shaquil Barrett signed a one-year, $4 million contract with Tampa prior to the 2019 season. Barrett has the most pressures in the NFL (157) among all edge from 2019-20. In 2019, he led the NFL with a staggering 19.5 sacks.

Green Bay Packers: Another right tackle in Rick Wagner was a smart, shrewd move for Green Bay. While he was not a true bargain-bin signing, Wagner signed a reasonable two-year, $11 million deal with the Packers. The key is they let longtime stalwart RT Bryan Bulaga walk, and he signed a three-year, $30 million deal with the the Los Angeles Chargers.

Wagner’s overall grade of 75.6 was exactly 14 points higher than Bulaga’s 61.6, and his pass blocking grade of 78.3 was over 13 points higher. He also outperformed Bulaga in run-blocking grade by 13 points.

The are several other examples around the league in recent years of low-cost signings that made a big impact. Here are just a handful from 2020:

Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas (two-years, $6.145 million)
Washington Football Team CB Ronald Darby (one-year, $1,047,500)*
San Francisco 49ers CB Jason Verrett (one-year, $3 million)
Indianapolis Colts CB Xavier Rhodes (one-year, $3 million)
Arizona Cardinals T Kelvin Beachum (one-year, $1,187,500)*
Las Vegas Raiders WR Nelson Agholor (one-year, $1,047,500)*
* Veteran minimum

It’s wonderful to look back in hindsight and appreciate these moves, but how do we identify them beforehand?

First, there’s the very important context of NFL learning curves by position. PFF's Timo Riske investigated how each position adjusts to the NFL, and notably, edge rushers and tackles tend to have the steepest learning curves. A rough first year or two could lead to a decrease in snaps. Then a player is fighting just to get back on the field — but the talent could still be there.

Let’s start with Shaquil Barrett, a picture-perfect example of the value of PFF’s grading system.

Over the 2017-18 seasons, Barrett only recorded seven total sacks. However, his 55 total pressures on just 425 pass-rush snaps produced a higher rate of pressures per pass-rush snap than Cameron Jordan, T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, J.J. Watt and several other notable edge rushers.

The example of Ezekiel Ansah demonstrates the other side of this opportunity cost. Ansah had 398 pass rush snaps and 57 total pressures over the same sample, but he more than doubled Barrett's sack count with 15. Ansah signed a one-year, $9 million deal with Seattle.

Of course, being a first-round pick compared to the undrafted Barrett also influenced the value, but the two players produced more or less exactly the same, except Ansah got home with twice as many sacks. As a result, he got more than twice the contract. Ansah has 2.5 sacks since then, while Barrett has 27.5 (both had dealt with injuries in recent years as well).

Who could be this year’s Shaquil Barrett? Another undrafted free agent edge rusher — Detroit Lions ED Romeo Okwara — performed quite similarly in PFF’s stable metrics in 2020 as Barrett did in 2018, actually outperforming him across the board:

Player Pass- rush grade Pass-rush grade on true pass rushes Pass-rush grade w/o play-action Pass-rush win rate
Shaq Barrett (2018) 73.3 83.3 76.2 17.3%
Romeo Okwara (2020) 85.9 90.9 88.0 19.5%
Barrett was and is a much better defender against the run. Okwara is a bit of a pure pass-rush specialist, but he could be a cheaper option in 2021 free agency compared to guys like Yannick Ngakoue and Matthew Judon that ends up providing more value for his new team.

BIG IMPACT ON FEW SNAPS/TOUCHES
How a player is used can, of course, make a big impact on how well they produce. Certain playing styles can lead to higher-leverage snaps. For example, deep threat WRs can go through a rough patch with drops, like Nelson Agholor in Philadelphia.

An interesting name here who has very little usage thus far in his career is Tennessee Titans WR Kalif Raymond. While Agholor was a first-round pick, Raymond is another undrafted guy, and he’s much smaller at 5-foot-8, 182 pounds. Still, Raymond is one of the true deep threat specialists in football. Over 2019-20, among all wide receivers with a minimum of 10 targets, Raymond’s average depth of target ranks sixth at 17.9 yards. His 19.8 yards per reception also ranks sixth.

Raymond's three drops on 16 targets in 2020 led to a receiving grade of 54.2 on the season, down from 76.8 in 2019, but Nelson Agholor’s 2019 receiving grade was quite similar at 55.1. Again, we understand that Raymond would also need to see a major uptick in snaps and targets, but the value in simply taking the top off a defense cannot be understated. Raymond has to be accounted for deep down the field every time he’s out there.



BETTING ON POSITIVE REGRESSION OR IMPROVED HEALTH
Certain positions simply experience more variance than others. Cornerbacks and safeties have the lowest year-to-year correlation in wins above replacement compared to every other position — and by a decent margin.

Injuries can impact this heavily, of course. Washington Football Team CB Ronald Darby is a prime example of the peaks and valleys that occur at wide corner in the NFL. Darby earned a 71.1 PFF grade in 2018, followed by 43.0 in 2019 and 78.3 in 2020. He was recovering from a torn ACL in 2019, which likely impacted his ability to plant, change direction and generally play an athletically demanding position at a high level. He struggled all season long but was back to his old self in 2020.

San Francisco 49ers CB Jason Verrett is another example of a great player held back by injuries, but there are also players like Indianapolis Colts CB Xavier Rhodes that benefited from playing more zone as opposed to man coverage.

There are a handful of cornerbacks that could fit this mold. Here are five notable names sorted by difference in 2019 and 2020 WAR:

Player 2019 WAR 2020 WAR +/-
Quinton Dunbar .446 -.173 .619
Nickell Robey-Coleman .356 -.028 .384
Kevin King .182 -.191 .373
Daryl Worley .199 -.126 .325
Gareon Conley .269 0* .269
*Conley missed the 2020 season

Gareon Conley’s absence in Houston was very apparent, as the Texans cornerbacks ranked 25th in coverage grade as a unit for the 2020 season. They also allowed the third-worst expected points added per play in the NFL at .244, only better than the Lions and Jaguars.

CONCLUSION
In an unprecedented offseason with a decreased salary cap, identifying low-cost players that could make significant contributions in 2021 is more important than ever. The middle-tier of free agency will be most heavily impacted, as the upper echelon of available players will likely still get their due. But after that it’s all about finding surplus value over cheap contracts.

The teams that do the best in this regard could have a serious advantage over the rest of the NFL, especially considering that this was already the case in a normal year.

More 2021 Low-Cost Contributor Candidates
WR Breshad Perriman
WR Kenny Stills
WR John Ross
WR Kendrick Bourne
WR Keelan Cole
WR Willie Snead IV
HB Marlon Mack
TE Anthony Firkser
T Cam Obinson
T Ty Nsekhe
T Ty Sambrailo
T Cam Robinson
G/C Ben Garland
G Denzelle Good
G Jon Feliciano
OL Matt Feiler
CB Cameron Sutton
CB Ahkello Witherspoon
CB Troy Hill
CB D.J. Hayden
CB Mike Hilton
S Bradley McDougald
S Malik Hooker
S Deon Bush
S Jaquiski Tartt
S Rayshawn Jenkins
LB Raekwon McMillan
LB Eric Wilson
ED Samson Ebukam
ED Barkevious Mingo
ED Tarell Basham
ED Kerry Hyder
ED Tyus Bowser
ED Jordan Jenkins
DI Mario Edwards Jr.
DI Roy Robertson-Harris
DI Christian Covington
DI Larry Ogunjobi

I know and thank you.

Myles Jack dropped to 36.

Guys that "there's no way they make it to 'x'" tumble way past 'x' every single Draft.
We got Wills at 10 when everyone was certain he was a lock to go Top 5; I seem to recall other players that everyone felt were Round 1 locks falling to the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

So much depends on what teams do before the Draft. Teams have holes now, but they're going to get more holes, and some of them big... and, they're going to plug others in Free Agency. This offseason, that is compounded even further by a Cap that will DECREASE. Teams that thought they had guys locked up are going to be making hard decisions and letting talent go; other teams will be snatching that talent up and filling big holes. Parity is about to get a reshuffle.

Not saying you'll be wrong in the end, but saying that absolutely nothing is for certain, especially once you get outside the top 3.

Collins = Not very fast. Don't see how he helps against a running QB like Lamar.

I think a LB like Nick Bolton or hybrid S/LB like Owusu-Koramoah provide more value for Browns D.

I don't know enough about either/any of them, but if Collins isn't that fast relative to the others, we don't need him. We need speed that can hit. We need size that can cover.

Simply: we need a guy that can chase Lamar and cover Kelce. That should be easy enough to find, right??

Myles Jack had major injury red flags.

My are points that you can’t count on a guy to fall if you are drafting at 26. And that trading up from 26 to get a guy is not a wise investment.

oh, you can't count on it, for sure; but you also can't outright say it won't happen, especially this far out. It may not be *likely*, but it can happen, especially in a year with extra volatility like this one. Heck, in addition to all of the above, there's also the guys that opted out of their seasons, but also won't be going back.

Add in that a number of teams rely far too heavily on things like the Combine and you can get a bunch of teams making really poor choices. There is a TON that can happen where he easily falls to 26..... but, as was mentioned, if he's slow, we don't don't want him, anyway (which could very well be the thing that makes him fall - right past us).

I'm willing to bet my mortgage that Trevor Lawrence won't fall to #26

Hafanga looks good in those highlights.
Adebo's looks like a lowlights video

I like Cisco but didin't h hurt his knee?
What's the status on that?

Tuipulotu looks like a nice effort player but nothing special. Day 3 pick

Of course, these clips don't represent their whole body of work but, OK.

Cisco does have the ACL it may help us come draft day. Medical evaluations which we don't have access to will inform the team of his recovery timetable and assist in slotting him.

I actually liked Dorsey's thinking on drafting Ward over Bradley Chubb. It was very analytical of him. But I now believe he was wrong. DLine and team speed utmost importance.

Get used to seeing 4-2-5 as the Browns base defense

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2021/01/...lb-snap-counts/


One of the decisions Andrew Berry, Kevin Stefanski and the Browns staff made in the past offseason was to deliberately spend less resources at the linebacker position. That’s part of why Joe Schobert is now in Jacksonville. Based on how Stefanski and defensive coordinator Joe Woods deployed the players in 2020, don’t expect a significant investment in the off-ball LB position in 2021 either.

Like most of the rest of the NFL, the Browns used a base defense that had just two LBs on the field. The 4-2-5 or even the 4-1-6 as a base formation was the dominant deployment. Those two made up over half of the total defensive snaps in the NFL in 2020.

For the Browns, it was even more pronounced. Per John Kosko of Pro Football Focus, which tracks personnel on every snap, the Browns defense under Woods broke down like this in 2020:

4-3-4: 267 snaps (24.8%)

4-2-5: 721 snaps (66.9%)

The rest was primarily 4-1-6 though some heavy packages on short-yardage and red zone situations also factored in.

The linebacker snap count breakdown:

B.J. Goodson – 848 (78.7%)

Malcolm Smith – 559 (51.9%)

Sione Takitaki – 434 (40.3%)

Mack Wilson – 372 (34.5%)

Jacob Phillips – 169 (15.7%)

Tae Davis – 25 (2.3%)

Interestingly, Woods actually used three LBs significantly more than predecessor Steve Wilks in 2019. The Browns had a span of seven games in 2019 where there were more than two LBs on the field exactly once.

The relative lack of depth at safety compared to linebacker in 2020 likely contributed to the increased usage. With Grant Delpit, the team’s second-round pick and projected top safety before an injury wiped out his rookie season, coming back, the Browns could lean more on using one LB more than three in 2021.

I would caution against using what we did this past season as an indicator of what we'll do next season.

Yes, we are not likely to invest heavily in a free agent LBers unless we can get a true 3-down guy that can cover TE's, but the formations we ran aren't an indicator of preference in personnel as much as they are simply playing the in-game matchup game of who we currently have versus whomever our opponent was in a given situation. We didn't play the same packages in the 1st Qtr when the score was 0-0 as we did in the 3rd or 4th Qtrs when we had a one, two, or three score lead.

In either case, we do need ONE Linebacker that can be out there on all three downs and effectively cover big TE's (and maybe chase Lamar).

4-2-5 has been the base defense for the entire NFL for about a decade now.

If this Browns Wire article contains any kernels of truth and, i think it does. Then a prospect that might fit this scheme well is someone I'm giving a nickname right now...the Heavely Devil. AKa, Divine Deablo safety, Va. Tech. I think he last unti at least round 4, wher I think he would be good value.


https://nflmocks.com/2020/12/30/inside-war-room-2021-nfl-draft-defensive/

One of the more overlooked safeties in this year’s draft is Virginia Tech’s Divine Deablo. This past season Deablo became the first safety in school history to be named All-ACC after he posted 55 tackles and four picks. While he was definitely a productive defensive back in college, there are some questions on him having the skill set to play safety at the next level.

The biggest concern with his pro potential revolves around if he has the fluid hips to hold up in coverage in the secondary. Due to these concerns, he will likely slide into the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft and hopefully is picked by a team smart enough to understand how to use him. The wise way to use him would be to shift him into a nickel linebacker role. This move makes sense for Deablo as he has the size to make the transition (6-foot-3 226 pounds), tackling ability, and coverage skills to make this transition.

As of 2019, NFL teams that regularly incorporate the 3–4 defensive alignment scheme as a base include the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, and Arizona Cardinals.

I say you draft that guy based on his name alone.

Heck, I’ve even thought about going 4-4 against the Ravens lol