DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum OBJ, torn ACL

"I'll take 'Overthinking things and silly "hot takes" ' for $1000, Alex."

I don’t believe it but there are enough credible people who have said it that make me at least think about it.

There are people talking about it because he went down and we lit it up; it's the very definition of drawing a conclusion from anecdotal evidence.

Correlation is not causation.

This is true if people are just looking at this game. However, stats show that since OBJ has been here Baker is a better QB with OBJ on the sidelines. This is something to watch and see if it continues.

I am not saying OBJ has any fault in this. OBJ has shown that he is a great talent throughout his career.

I am not remotely ready to buy into that, but it would not be the first time we've seen it here. Every single time Josh Gordon came back, we saw it.... the offense would stall and sputter as it tried to get him the ball.

J/C

I’m not sure if this can relate to football at all, BUT I will say this:

I’ve played basketball at a high level and have played with a lot of different GOOD players. My role was always to score and produce on offense. For whatever reason, sometimes I don’t play as well with better players ... sometimes I’m more effective with “role” player type guys.

I don’t know why that is ... but maybe I didn’t like having to feel pressure to have them score TOO instead of just having the game come naturally

j/c:

OBJ's career as we know it might be over. I heard it will take at least a year to recover and then he still won't be the same if he returns next November. Hell, he might never be the same.

I don't think it's very cool to be throwing shade at a guy after he has just suffered such a catastrophic injury and we're not even sure if those numbers are correlated.

Nobody that I’ve read is throwing shade on OBJ. If anything people (me) are blaming Baker for his inability to work OBJ into the offense.

I haven't seen anyone on here blame Baker for OBJ's injury. It was a poor throw, but those things happen.

I was referring to the team being better w/out OBJ that is making the rounds on this thread and others. Maybe I'm wrong, but it just feels slimy to be talking about him in a negative light after he just suffered such a catastrophic injury. It seems to me that it might be more productive to feel empathy for OBJ and hope for the best w/Baker and the offense. But, if you guys don't agree.........I won't say anything else.

Not a single post has thrown shade on OBJ, you are right.

j/c:

Interesting take and it's been brought up here before.

Here are my thoughts, in no particular order:

1. I feel awful for OBJ. I really hope that he has a quick, speedy and full recovery. Really sucks what happened to him.

2. Some people - not necessarily on this board, but on social media - seem to be relieved or glad that OBJ is not going to play, which is the result of him being injured, and that isn't right.

3. Some people are theorizing that Baker did better because he wasn't trying to force the ball to OBJ or locking in on him too long. I don't know if that's the case yet, and I'm split. My inclination is that is not the case, but I see the evidence and analysts I respect who are wading into that area. So I think it is entirely possible and I will be paying attention to how he performs moving forward.

4. If Baker's performance regressed as a result of locking in on OBJ too much, that is his fault, not OBJ's.

5. OBJ is a talented playmaker, and we cannot refute his desire to win. We would not have won the Cowboys game without him.

I don't think anyone is throwing shade at OBJ. The shade is on Baker for not seeing the forest from the trees (or tree in this case being the stud WR).

Best case scenario is Baker learns to stop playing hero-ball with OBJ off the field and OBJ comes back next year and we have what we hoped for in 2019 (2 years later, regrettably).

No where near enough evidence yet, but man was Baker looking right past open receivers ever since last year. This year it was even worse, he was rushing through his reads and not seeing anything. I just want my QB to play within himself again.

Some people will find fault in Baker even when leads us to a SB Title ... smh

Where did that come from? Did you expect to?

I was responding to a post that made that claim and has since been edited.

Personally I think its the same as when LeBron James was the only good player on the Cavaliers and they always tried to force the ball to him. Now James was so great that he'd just dominate everyone and basketball is a different game but the pacing would slow down to a crawl because the whole offense focused on him and only him.

If you have an offense that is selfless and spreads the ball around it is much harder to beat them, nearly impossible if they're all JUST good enough. See the Warriors in their prime, the Patriots scrub WR's, RB's that won Super Bowls but weren't world beaters by any means.

Once you get into the realm of what's described above you start to create a system for your team. That idea is incredibly powerful. It means that you if you know what players fit your "system" you can draft for it and be successful for a LONG time, see the Steelers.

In our "system" that we're making, WR's aren't super important. I wish people would realize this. We don't need flashy players here, just ones that do their job, same at TE. The major strength is still the run game and we need to concentrate on that. However, our "system" as a whole is:

Run game
SHORT to INTERMEDIATE pass patterns NOT LONG
RPO
Play action
Dink and Dunk

Mayfield's strength is not the deep ball and long developing passing routes. Now he can hit those every once in a while if he needs too. We need to make the system fit the player's strength. In my opinion we need to stick to the above, upgrade the defense and sky would be the limit.

If the Browns offensive guru(s) are so cutting edge, it would be easier to remember those recent games... aww screw it.

I'm trying to say they didn't use Landry and OBJ together on the same drive or even really on the same day

How hard is that, they're supposed to both be really good.
I suppose I'm going to be told to blame Baker, what about the Coaches.

Do you remember one day, one game, or one drive, where they both came up big at the same time, used as a duo even, not a "one off" while the other has to take a seat and watch?

I don't remember once, and that's all last year, and 6 games this year.
Just seems to me 31 other teams would have found a way, I don't get it.

You're failing to factor in opponent.
Nobody gets to simply decide "I'm going to use this guy this time" or "well, I will use both evenly".

If you aren't factoring in who was playing and how they were playing us, you aren't looking at the picture at all.

The most likely reason is that we haven't played anyone that is so bad that both are nearly always effective. Defenses roll coverages, the take away routes, they actually win in coverage often even against great WR's... it is never so simple as "I'm just going to use both on this drive"

I'd prefer that he said that because it's a ludicrous idea, but that works too.

::waiting for people to twist this in 3.... 2.... 1.... ::

I won't twist it. I like what Baker said and I think he is right. In fact, that was my message yesterday when I was trying to explain why we might not want to be talking about it.

I do think Baker has shown that he has matured a lot this year. I think that helps w/the team's focus and keeps those nasty reporters away.

I too think Baker handled that question wisely

I think so too. A little humility, another year in the NFL, and I think Stefanski has been good for him too

For one.. I am upset about losing OBJ. we are NOT a deep enough team that we can just move on to the next guy without a care, especially if he's elite at that position.

Yep. "Baker did not deny that he is better off without OBJ".

Our fanbase is stupid. We have an elite WR and fans want to trade him because Baker forces the ball to him.

Lighbulb moment dear ones.

How about coach teaches Baker to stop forcing the ball and instead throw to the open receiver. Ya know, the one that isn't double/triple covered.

It's a coachable moment.

Seems logical.

I totally agree with you, but it was Stefanski that said they were wanting to get OBJ involved early on in games.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...early-in-games/

I'm not sure I'd argue with you if you said this doesn't qualify as forcing the ball to him. Does seeing 1-1 coverage vs OBJ and giving him extra attention in those cases constitute forcing the ball to him?

This is good to see.

Good for him!

OBJ looking great so far.

j/c:

Can we have a realistic discussion about Odell Beckham Jr.? Terry Pluto

CLEVELAND, Ohio – The NFL is not a fantasy league. It’s hard not to view it that way in the age of statistics, computers and analytics.

We often hear, “The numbers don’t lie.” I will add this: Except when they do lie.

Or as veteran NBA agent Ron Grinker once told me, “That’s accurate, but not true.” He meant a $10 million offer from a team over three years was accurate ... but the contract was actually paid out over 15 years. So it wasn’t truly $10 million for three years. It was much less because the value of dollars diminish over time.

What does this have to do with Odell Beckham Jr., the subject of cleveland.com’s Bark Week?

Our staff is doing a great job of breaking down various stats of what happens when Beckham is on the field with the Browns and when he’s not.

An interesting one mentioned by Mary Kay Cabot was Baker Mayfield having 10 TD passes and seven interceptions with Beckham. The final interception was in Cincinnati, his first pass of the game to Beckham – the receiver suffered a torn ACL knee injury on the play.

In the remaining games, counting two in the postseason, Mayfield threw 20 TD passes compared to two interceptions.

ESPN had several stats showing how Mayfield was far more effective without Beckham and with Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins as the main two receivers.

That passed the eye test. Much like in 2018, Mayfield seemed more comfortable and effective QB when Beckham wasn’t on the field. You can debate why that could be case and perhaps how that can change.

But I see those numbers as being accurate and pointing toward a bigger truth.

FANTASY & REALITY

Those who like raw numbers look at Beckham as the player who was eye-popping in New York early in his career. Then they factor in some flashes of that Beckham in Cleveland, such as the Dallas game early in 2020 when he scored three TDs. That included a dazzling 50-yard run and a 37-yard TD catch.

But I have the same concerns about Beckham as the day the Browns traded for him – durability.

Part of ability is availability. The reality is Beckham has had major problems staying healthy. Consider the following:

1. In his last two seasons with the Giants (2017-18), Beckham missed 16 of 32 games. In 2017, he suffered a high ankle sprain and then fractured the same ankle. He played five games. In 2018, he had a major quad injury and missed the final four games.

2. He played all 16 games for the Browns in 2019, but rarely practiced because of various injuries. He had hernia surgery after the season. The 2019 season was only the second time in his seven-year career he’s played all 16 games.

3. In the last four years, he has had knee, ankle and hernia surgeries. He has missed 27 of 64 games. That means he’s missed 42% of the games.

IS HE THE SAME PLAYER?

Beckham recently posted a tweet reading: “As quick as we all forgot ... is as quick as I’ll remind ya ... Players with at least 6,800 rec yrds and 50 rec TDs in their first 80 games: Odell Beckham Jr., end of list.”

Those stats are accurate. But they break down this way:

1. In Beckham’s first three years (2014-16), he had 35 TDs, 4,122 yards.

2. In his last four seasons (2017-20), it’s 16 TDs and 2,708 yards.

The reason for the decline is primarily injuries. He’s missed a lot of games and often played through pain. I’d argue that he is not the same player as early in his career, and the numbers do show that.

HOW WILL HE COME BACK?

In the past, an ACL injury could be career-threatening. That’s not the case any more. Everything from surgery techniques to rehabilitation has improved. It’s a reasonable expectation that the Beckham will return to the field.

But is it true to say he’ll be the same player as earlier in his career, even though he’s not especially old at age 28? It’s hard to answer the question, other than it would be more likely to be true if he hadn’t suffered all the other injuries before the ACL.

It’s tempting to imagine what a healthy Beckham from those early years would do for the Browns. But I find it hard to count on him playing at that same (2014-16) level. Maybe part of that opinion is colored by my view of the Browns having unselfish receivers led by Jarvis Landry, who has missed only one game in seven seasons. Landry was out for that game because of COVID-19 protocol, not injury.

Rashard Higgins has been one of my favorite players since being drafted in 2016. I’m intrigued by Donovan Peoples-Jones, believing he can turn into a deep threat without needing a lot of passes thrown in his direction. Other receivers can be added via free agency or the draft.

Is Beckham more of a luxury or a necessity, especially at $12 million and his injury history? That’s a question the Browns need to ask.

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2021/02...erry-pluto.html

And to clarify, his cap hit would be almost $16M in 2021. Not $12M. (According to Spotrac). And it would be nearly $13M in dead cap to cut him outright, which doesn't make financial sense to do.

I realize that the beat writers need to come up with things to write about, but I really dislike when people that are supposed to be fans of our team start a public opinion campaign against one of our better players.

The writers are supposed to be the fans of the team?

What he is getting paid, his injuries, and production since being here are legitimate concerns. I won't get into the Baker connection because I'm not sure how reliable that is but its been noticeable so far as well.

People can get butt-hurt over this all they want but these are realistic issues that need to be addressed.

I don't think the team cuts him because it would be financially stupid to do so just to save $3M when there is possible upside on the guy if he is 100% healthy. Now, maybe if the Browns were in some terrible cap situation and they had no choice, but we're not there. Also, when he is 100%, he is our best WR by a long shot. But he's not been 100% for the past 4 years and that trend should be troubling to everybody, fans or beat writers.

I don't think the team trades him because of his injuries, salary, and production the past two years. A team might not want to give up much and we probably prefer not to sell "low". Maybe one team takes a stab with him and want to go for it all, but I'm not certain that is the case.

My guess is we try to restructure his deal for 2021 and give it one last go w/ Beckham to see if it can work.

The local beat reporters should be, yes. At the least, they shouldn't be primarily fans of other teams.



I think it's mountains from molehills. They're issues, but I think they're blown up into being more than they actually warrant.

Folks can keep getting their skivvies in a bunch over him all they want, but the issues seen were all early in the season... and, they were last season. They aren't issues any longer until they are. Like you said, he is NOT going anywhere because financially it makes no sense at all, so he WILL be here which means there isn't much to say or do but wait to see how he fits himself into things this summer/fall.

Restructure.... that I can see happening, but that won't happen without extending him.
In the end, any issues with the offense trying to run through him fall on the QB and the coaches because OBJ can't throw it to himself. I don't think this coaching staff is averse to learning from themselves on what works and what doesn't and I think they are plenty capable of coaching the QB to stop looking to get bailed out by OBJ.

Basically....it's a coaching issue.

Why should the local reporters be fans of a team? That would seem to be a conflict of interests.