DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2021 NFL Season 2021 NFL Draft Trade out of the first round?

How would anyone feel about trading out of the first round (26) if a really good offer is made? I am not talking if our #1 rated player by a significant margin is available, or trading back deep into round two. You have evaluated at least 15 players you like remaining at the time of your night 1 pick and the the spread is not very much from best available to the worst of that bunch.

Maybe a scenario where a team in the top ten of the second round, like say the Eagles picking 5th. They give us that pick and a first rounder in 2022 and an additional 3rd in 2022.

Not looking for crazy arguments, it has just been a long time since we have picked this high.

We lose the 5th year option. not worth it. teams are trying to trade back into the back half of the 1st round because of this.

If, of the players available, there isn't a significant difference in grade between them and who we feel we could still get at the pick we trade back to, then I am COMPLETELY in favor of it.

Gainging extra late round picks isn't too much of a big deal; those picks are throw-ins to level out a deal... but, gaining future 1st, 2nd, & 3rd rounders? That's absolutely what we need more of.

No way you are getting their 1st next year to only move up that far, sorry.

If they do offer it, you take that trade and try not to laugh.

it'd have to be unbelievable... I like the 5th year option

The Browns traded a first round pick the following year for a second round pick of a current year draft , straight up. IT was a long time ago and I think they used the pick to select Lawyer Tillman. I am also pretty sure teams have done this more recently but could be wrong.

You never know if a QB some team likes slips like a Matt Jones or whomever.

I think you have to strongly consider if you can pick up high draft picks, but inly if your highest rated player is not significantly higher than others you feel you could get early second round.

If I got a future first round pick I’d do it every time. It doesn’t even matter who is available. Future first round picks are lottery tickets and late first round picks don’t hit at a very high rate.

Actually you mean it's been a long time since the Browns have picked this

Low, not High, because the highest pick is the #1 overall pick.

lower picks are picks which fall afterwards.

This is not cool, at this point.

This idea may have been a good idea, and making the most out of a bad situation, several years ago.

What it says is two things, first, of your team.

If the Browns trade back from 26 to a later point in the draft, it is a referendum of what the Browns war room thinks of it's current roster as a whole, (a conglomerate), and that referendum
is a statement that all the Browns players are bad players. At least enough of them are,

enough of them are that the Browns' are desperate to bring in as many rookies as possible, (more than the draft allows, by adding more picks, (probably more chances to pick bad college players because they don't know how to pick the right ones at the right times)
--desparate to add more picks, to replace the terrible, uncompetitive players already on the Browns roster;
(Now is that the current state of the Browns? I say no.)

2nd. it's a referendum on the current state of your free agent situation, Obviously!
Obviously, trading back for more future picks, means you cannot find anybody, in free agency, to replace your leaving free agents, (at least anybody good enough to suit up and not be an embaressment)

3rd.
Trading Back in the draft from 26 to a later point shows you either don't trust someone else, or are incompetent enough yourself, to not be able to find anyone, out of the entire pool of college players, that you would know how to turn into a decent football player.

(So,

Since I believe, the Browns have talent on their team, and are able to find talent as a front office,
during this current year.

(to include, if you have any faith in the free agent signings so far,
and faith that someone like Delpit will ever play and be adequate to his selection last or 2 years ago.

Then trading out of the first round is a
colossaly Bad Idea.

Contrarilly, the Browns are Good enough, this year,

They should be doing the Oppisite, and Trading UP, into a high, / early / Top, First Round pick-

To Find that one player,
Just ONE, who can be the difference, that puts them

To Winning the Super Bowl, instead of finishing just 3 wins shy.

Based on the parameters you outlined, I am all for it, and believe the Browns will if given the chance.

Two things we do know:

1. A first rounder brings more value in trade than any other pick just due to draft slot and the 5th year option.

2. The Browns front office loves to accumulate additional future draft picks. Dropping say 10 spots could bring a 3rd for next year. Maybe a bit more.

Yes, all the indicators point to us being willing to do that.

Add in the fact we have additional picks this year that could allow us to move up, makes sense to me.

Trade back because we already have the ability to trade up?

( If I can just get 100 first round picks, for one draft 100 years from now, then who cares about the next 99 years. )

Completely against this. A team with a young, talented roster and a QB coming up on his option needs to go ALL in not be conservative and plan for the future.

What are the chances the 26th pick is a high level contributor?

Why not do both?

If pick #26 overall is pick #1 in the Browns draft.
Browns so often struggle with pick number 2 in any given draft, wherever it occurs,
then when they realize how bad they did, they kind of, wake up for pick number 3.

If they are good enough in their 4th year (CHUBB) just sign the player by the end of their 4th year, and if you can't and they a great player like Chubb there is always the franchise tag while you work out a long term contract ...

Moving up 12 spots will get you a future 1 and 3 plus maybe a 4th this year, 12 spots is a major jump and jumping into the 1st round makes it even more expensive ... JMHO

I think it would need to be a unique set of circumstances and for a team to covet a player on the board that we didn't want. But this is exactly what New England did for many years to maintain a dynasty ... adding future 2nd and third round picks and dropping a handful of slots to "still" get a guy you may have taken is a no brainer. I think this FO has shown the ability to trade - and has also shown that they have a clear value on certain players that would mean they won't trade.

As to the many points about how many players we need - I'd think there is a reasonable chance we use some of our lower/mid round picks to jump back up to grab a targeted/coveted/valued player whether we trade down or stay put at #26. We could even jump up a few spots from 26 if there is DE or LB we covet still there in the low teens/early 20's.

If we can get a 1st and a 3rd in 2022 + say a 4th in 2021, I trade, I look at it this way, that will give us 4 2nds this year (Greedy) (Delpit) #37 and #59 now that is a good draft, and looking at 2 1's in 2022 is the cherry on top and the only negative is losing the 5th year option on one player ...

Getting future first round picks is huge. Imagine trading for a future first and the pick becomes the third overall pick like it did for the Dolphins. Then you get to trade down from that spot and reap the benefits for years or draft a player that would never be able to get.

The further down in the first round you pick, the less value that pick holds. At #26, to get a next years first round draft pick from your trading partner, you would have to move WAY back in the draft to get it.

You won't get a next years first and third round picks by moving from #26 to #38. That's just not logical. You won't even get a next years first round pick for #26.

While it's not a steadfast rule, it a guideline. According to the draft value chart, the #1 overall pick in the draft is worth 3000 points. By the time you get to pick #26, it's worth 700 points. No, this pie in the sky dream you have about the compensation you can get for a trade down at #26 would never happen.

Not all first round picks are created equal.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

If they want in the first round they will pay to move up 12 spots or they won't get in ... thats logical

Take a look at the draft value chart I posted. Then, show me anywhere that a team ever got a future first round pick for the #25 or lower pick in a trade down scenario in the draft. It doesn't, hasn't and won't happen.

This is correct. If we are trading for a future first we aren’t getting much back besides that future first. And it has to be a team making a pretty big leap. Which goes to show that the 26th pick is not very valuable because it’s not much different than drafting in the second round.

I respectfully disagree ... Let me add if a team wants a player bad enough the draft trade chart goes out the window ...

I just wonder if the team would really trade out of the first night of the draft on the night we finally host the NFL draft. Talk about letting the air out of the (hopefully) post-pandemic party balloon. It probably shouldn't be a consideration, but it might be.

Then please site an example of where any team has been given a future first round pick for a first round pick in the 20's prior in a trade down scenario..

While I agree on the whole - picks in future drafts are widely accepted to be worth/valued as a round later. So a future first is considered to be equal to a 2nd round pick this year. A 2nd rounder is considered as a 3rd round value this year etc.

So it's unlikely but not impossible. Again - it depends who is there, what value we place on them and what value another team places.

Let's just look at a trade from last year that proves your and my point:

"New England traded its first-round (No. 23) draft pick to Los Angeles for the Chargers’ second- (No. 37) and third-round (No. 71) picks."

That Patriots fell back further than what was proposed we do, and only got an extra 3rd back.

No way are you getting a future first, especially from a team that looks like it will be picking in the top 10 again next year - sorry Pastor.

It's just not going to happen, and if it does, you take the trade 100/100 times. Unfortunately, BoB is no longer the GM of any teams in the NFL, so it's probably not going to happen.

That's fine then I tell them find another trade partner and pick the best DE/CB available ...

I will once again go back to my post above. Can you cite any precedent in the era of modern football where a team has given up a future first round draft pick for a #25 current draft pick or below?

I don't ever recall that happening and as of yet found no evidence that it has. You see, at #26 you are only seven picks away from drafting in the second round as it.

If a team wants a player that bad then they aren’t waiting to 26 to trade up for him.

If we wanted a future first we wouldn’t be also be getting a second round pick. A trade for a future first would be something like the 26th pick for a future first and a mid round pick in 2021.

So the past dictates what is possible in the future?

I said it was unlikely. But it could happen. In this draft a WR or a QB that a team covets and wants to ensure they draft and secure the 5th year option .... Unlikely but possible. As Crfs just wrote, you won't get a 2nd and a future first, but the future first would be the main part of the comp, coupled with a mid round pick.

If you want to do it just by the numbers and ignore the possibility of a team coveting a player - #26 is worth 700 points. A future first - viewed as an equivalent to a mid round 2nd, is somewhere between 500-350 points. There is room and the numbers work *in theory*... if you accept that future picks are de-valued by about a round.

I haven’t paid attention to the middle rounds, but it would depend on the talent/depth of the 2-4th rounds

Mostly I agree. Trading back only happens if we are good with any number of players who we have grading out about the some, and in that area of the draft, it's possible for several players to grade out fairly equally.

I still think we will look to add picks for next draft, but that can happen with the 3rd and 4th rounders.

After all the free agents are signed, and late pick-up's after camp cuts, we probably only have 4-5-6 realistic slots open. I can't see us drafting 9 players when knowing going in we will probably cut 3-4.

It makes sense to push a few in to next year.
Then again, maybe this is the year we use all of the picks we can to move up in various rounds.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Like many of the crazy theories we see on here year after year before the draft.

I'll repeat myself. We should stay at #26 and let the draft come to us. JMO