DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2021 NFL Season 2021 NFL Draft Random draft thoughts

To your point about OL being a need:

Folks, don't be shocked if we go OG or C in the first, if the right player falls.
Conklin's deal is effectively through 2022, BUT he is a $15 million cap hit next year. Cutting him after 2021 saves us $6 million next year.

Also, don't be shocked if Tretter is traded after June 1st of this year. It would be a $9.45 million savings.... and being that he is still under contract for another year at a lower salary, that could be enticing to a team looking for a really good Center.

Lastly, there's Bitonio. He is a $10 million cap hit in each of this year and next. Cutting/trading him in either year, before or after June 1, gives us $10 million in cap space.

I don't see this FO trying to shake up all three spots in one offseason, but I could see us giving Conklin a new contract (he's only 26) and then replacing one each of Bitonio and Tretter this year and next (they're both 29/30). I think that restructures are the only way they both stay beyond this season, and those restructures would probably be their last contracts and we'd have guys ready to step in behind them.

p.s. second random Draft thought: IT'S DRAFT DAY!!


Not only that, but this ISN'T our Super Bowl!!

That's a good assessment. We already have Tretter's replacement in house, and he's seen some action and has done some good (albeit, playing out of position). We're also going to have to pay Teller very soon (or see to his replacement). Forbes is a wildcard, as he sat out last year. So our already expensive Oline is about to get significantly more expensive with an impending Teller signing.

Bottom line; I don't think anyone knows who we will pick. AB probably has a # of players on his board whom we may take but he doesn't know if they will be there because no one knows how the draft will unfold. Myself, I have faith in Andrew Berry to do the right moves for us. He has done a great job and is very intelligent as is evident by the way he has put our Browns together. Just a thought. I wouldn't be surprised if we draft one of the top WR's at #1 and then try and trade OBJ for a 2nd or 3rd. If it's a 3rd we could package that along with another lower pick to move back up into the 2nd RD. Lot's of talent there.

The reality is only Jacksonville knows who they are going to pick. Until they announce the pick, everybody else will react off of that.

Exactly Ball. I love to speculate and look at all the mocks but in reality you are exactly right. No one really knows what will happen. It's a lot of fun this time of year!!

I think the first 3 picks are a 98% lock. After that I think there is much more uncertainty. But Lawrence, Wilson, Jones have a very very high probability of going 1-2-3.

The likelihood of predicting the top five or so picks in the draft are much higher than predicting the picks as you move down the board. The further down the board you go, the worse the odds of the predictions being correct.

Peen is right that we don't "know" but there is certainly a higher probability of being correct.

Based on our team’s prior draft history with DePodesta with the team we will be picking a young, productive, athletic player in the first two rounds (Njoku, Peppers, Wills). In rounds 3-7 we will be picking an athletic player (Larry Ogunjobi) or a productive player (Harrison Bryant) and age won’t be as big as a factor.

(The years with Sashi in charge and last year's draft are what I’m talking about. The Dorsey drafts aren’t great references.)

Greg Newsome fits this criteria for the first round. JOK too. Jaelen Phillips.

Then again can you actually make an accurate comparison to how a teams draft strategy would be the same no matter where they stand?

If you're tearing a team down to the studs always trading back to gain future picks.... If you are trying to rebuild a team that's been torn down to the studs.....Or if you're trying to fill in a few remaining gaps in a competitive team....

Does the exact same strategy apply to your draft no matter your circumstances?

Yes.

The process is the process. The goal is to get good players. If you think that is the best way to get good players then you do it when you are rebuilding and when you are a Super Bowl contender.

The one thing I've seen cause the failure of some very successful people is their inability to adapt depending on a variety of circumstances. I'm not trying to say you're wrong in how they will approach this draft. You may very well be right.

I do however feel it's shortsighted to think that people won't adjust their strategy based on totally different circumstances.

Of course if new data is discovered you change what you are doing. But if you think you know the best way to draft quality players there is no reason to deviate from that process.

Exactly

Thought.

If the Browns intended pick is Jammin Davis Lb Kentucky.
They could trade back all the way down to 43, the 49ers 2nd pick, and see whatever future collateral or capital they'd offer in return,

and still find Jammin Davis Lb Kentucky, waiting to get selected.

And IF my thinking is wrong and they miss out on him, they won't have missed out on much anyway.

When in Dime, defensive backs account for over 50% of the players you have on the field at any given time, and almost 30% of all (22) starters.... so, that number isn't as far out of whack as you might think.

We started our draft off fine with the Newsome pick. What we do tonight will determine how successful our draft will be.

Urban Meyer = 3 National Championships

Warren Sharp = Who???

My random thought is that Cleveland did a great job putting this draft together. It really represents that city well.

Every year since Gruden/Mayock have been with the Raiders, I’ve thought “that’s a strange draft”

My opinion of Gruden as a head coach has declined year-after-year since he won his Super Bowl.

A line of thinking, like any year, that admits, starting a draft with a corner = succumbing to need with a bad player who is nowher near bpa.

(I'll say, by rule, The NFL cannot have a Corner be the bpa, because a corner in an NFL game is like a steak knife, in a knife and gun fight.)

The best cornerback in the world, is still a cornerback.
by game play, the chess piece is not versatile.

I don't understand your aversion to cornerbacks, Throw Long. We need playmakers who can contain, if not shut down, the passing game. We gave up a lot of long pass plays last year. Plus, you sometimes have three on the field at once.

I feel like steak knives are pretty versatile.

Taking on JuJu without a good cornerback is like trying to tuck into a ribeye with a butterknife!

This next random draft thought starts this way. It may be a formula?

Pre Suppose. Making an assumption on points 1-9, a Guess.

1. pre suppose Terrence Mitchell was the best CB/DB on the Browns for the last 2 years?

2. Terrence Mitchell wasn't the best per play, or per matchup maybe on a scale of 1-10, a 7, 7.--- something.

3. T. Mitchell was the best though, because he took the field for more snaps and was more consistently available to play a game healthy on Sunday.

4. The Browns want corners who can be, on a scale of 1-10, an 8, 8.--- or better.

5. The Browns go ape/crazy with tunnelvision on adding corners who on a scale off 1-10 are hopefully 9, but are really 8.5-- +/-.

6. Corners who play at an 8.5+ hurt themselves making too many juke moves and since they become unavailable on game day end up less than.

7. Chasing corners that can play 8.0-9.0 becomes so distracting nobody can see committing long term to the 7.--- guy who is most effective because he takes the most snaps.

8. The whole thing becomes like pouring water into a bucket with a hole in it.

9. Maybe the Browns need to get some role players, (like point guards on a basketball team), some guys available to play all the snaps,
OR APPRECIATE THE ONES THEY HAVE ON THE TEAM, to end the process that becomes like pouring water into a bucket with a hole in it.

Hashtag could have posted this in 2006, or 2013, or-

I think I did.

The Next Browns Good Draft that Starts with a Corner, may be the first; I don't know; (facepalm)

Thanks for the further explanation. I am hoping this guy can play at a high level AND stay on the field.

And they make for a great prize, too!

Just for future reference you do not need to tell us your thoughts are random when you post.

ABC = Always bank cornerbacks.

Notice "National Championships". Nick Saban has 7 and was a mediocre NFL coach.

Also, drafting Etienne wasn't stupid because he is a good player, but it didn't make a lot of sense for the worst team in the league last year to spend a 1 on a RB when they already have a cheap, very good UDFA RB on the roster. It's not like that's the piece that puts them over the top. Their OL is garbage, and their defense is garbage. So let's take, in Meyer's own words, a 3rd down back.

They proved it themselves you can generally find a good RB in the later rounds. But instead they use a 1st rounder on a 3rd down back.

That was a literal LOL.

I don't either, fact, I'm ok if the Browns pick the next two picks on Cornerback, to = 3 straight to open the draft, IF it solve the problem.

1 problem is,
In Economics day #1 I learned what is called the "opportunity cost".

(The Opportunity cost, noun, is the thing someone didn't get, because they bought something else.
( If you have 5 dollars and can buy a 5 dollar steak or a 5 dollar pizza,
The one you didn't buy is the opportunity cost.
You buy the steak, you didn't get to eat the pizza.
or If you buy the pizza you didn't get to eat the steak.

I don't have an aversion to Corners, it's all the opportunity costs the team spends chasing them over the years that ends up like pouring water into a bucket full of holes.




That is such an Amazing POINT! BECAUSE, it's so important to understand,

No team in 50 years, ever shuts down all the other teams passing games, (anymore than NBA Playoffs are won by one team blocking all the other teams shots?)

No team in 50 years, ever shuts down all the other teams passing games, except maybe the 85 Bears, because it took more than 3 months for people to figure out what they were doing.

Can't chase the Zipper on a garment beyond the function to keep you warm.

Every team in the NFL throws 25 touchdowns a year, even the, (laugh) cept the 2020 NY Giants, (they didn't have a real NFL offense)
No team wins by holding others to 0' , if it's at the expense of, (at the opportunity cost of); having an offense of your own.

He won with Dungy's team.
I've never had a very high opinion of Gruden. Bloviating, as a term, comes to mind.

I agree. He doesn’t have many results to make me think he’s anything but an average coach

Mayock is the GM and his drafts have been questionable at best. Always reaching...

Again, I trust Urban Meyer over a no body media type. Travis Eitenne was as explosive in the passing game as he was in the run game.

I disagree Saban was mediocre as an NFL Coach. As a Defensive Coordinator here in Cleveland he had the best Browns defense I have ever seen from the Browns.

I always wanted him to come back to Coach the Browns but that ship has now sailed and I am fine with Stefanski.

The Biggest need on the Browns today
is still cornerback!
You can't put all your eggs into one basket of one player from Northwestern!

History shows, first round picks are often injured in camp. KW2.