DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2021 NFL Season Looking Back: Browns 10 Steelers 15 Post game thoughts

Or that people really love something and they want to dig into it and understand it more. Or it’s their job. Can’t be those. Definitely too much time on their hands says the message board poster with nearly 30000 posts.

This is for various reasons to spread out the defense, it is harder for the D to disguise their defense.

The alerting the DL to rush like hell, is not correct. The reason being is most empty sets are designed short yardage passes.


Instead of me talking about it, heres a better explanation

Reasons for empty sets

One thing I want to bring up from past stats.....see the difference in teams blitzing in empty compared to other sets?

And Baker to put it kindly hasn't been great in blitz situations.

I do have some further wonders and questions attached to this and Baker/Ski, but i'll leave it at this.

So, stats like wor mean something? That takes into account NOTHING other than when X plays over Y, wins are this.

Seriously? yards per route run means something? What? It means nothing. Like, this back ran a 4.4, that back ran a 4.6, plus, the first back only benched 225 12 times, but the faster guy only benched 225 10 times.

Those types of stats, legit, mean nothing. On 3rd and 3, this back got 2 yards, and that back got 3. Who cares? If looking at stupid stats means something to you, you must be a fantasy league guy.

Baseball - on 3-2 count, the pitcher throws a slider.....................big deal. On a 3-2 count, the batter hits a foul ball. Man, the stat people go way overboard.

At a home game,with over 10,000 in attendance, If batter A gets to bat with a runner in scoring position, 13% of the time he gets on base. But 59% of the time, he doesn't.

What?

Use the eye test. I don't care what your 40 says - how many times did you get caught from behind? Oh, you can bench 450? Cool. Why did the guy that couldn't bench 325 blow the hell out of you? it goes on and on. I know the stat guys have to do something to attempt to earn their money. Or act like it.

Stats like that are for nerds that never played, but get paid.

I'm more of a real life dude: Can you do it? I don't go in for stats like on 3rd and 3, this team has made a first 40% of the time running to the left, but 50% of the time running right.

It’s okay to not understand things.

I'm glad you are aware of that.

“ Use the eye test. “

You’ve been reading the post game thread. I would say this thread is based on the “eye test”.

…after reading this far, you would think everyone’s eye test thoughts would be pretty similar.

Why aren’t they?

I don't know what your point is. I will say this, in a post game thread after a loss, it is always and constantly a blame blame blame thread. I get tired of it.

There it is, in a nutshell.
This one had me LMAO.

Nicely played.


I'm no hater of 'analytics' in any way, but s# has become ridiculous, imho. AND- I love any chance to laugh at Amateur Armchair Statboys any chance I get... the same way folks poke at me when I geek out on high-end stereo, 70's ProgRock, or English Sports Cars.


Best chuckle of the night.


*EDIT*
My post sat (as a draft) for an hour+ while I caught up with the NY/KC game. When it was time to share, I took a quick peek at it before hitting the 'submit' button. At that moment, I had no idea that I was dropping into an active 'hot spot.'

I'm outta this.
Y'all have fun amongst yourselves.

My point was stats are valuable for many reasons….edit* I do want to add that some stats can be useless

And what I am saying as a generalization ( not directed at you) is most people’s eye ball test is full of malarkey.

Also agree with u about the blame thing

Yes, I’m posting a lot tonight…sorry.

OCD just reminded me of a post. We are 4-4. I said before the season started that 18 of the last 20 years whoever had the best division record in the AFC North won the division and went to the playoffs.

So while we are last in division, we are still 4-4 with only one division game (0-1) played. Still plenty of meaningful football left. We are just on high alert now to win these division games.

First of all it's WAR, wins ABOVE replacement, and if you think they "mean nothing" go check the correlation between team wins, player salaries and WAR. Or how closely their predictions deviate from expected outcomes. Or, you know, read a basic book on statistics and stochastic processes to figure out any odds more complicated than a coin flip.

Wait, never mind, correlation, expected values, stochastic processes.....those are terms for nerds (they might even be made up!). Don't need nuttin but addition and subtraction on ma fingers.

After all, those scientists, engineers and physicists never were worth much anyway. They haven't had to figure out deeper meaning or reasoning behind things in order to more accurately predict future outcomes in their advantage. Nope. And applying that concept to sports to find hidden values to extract and find minute ways to gain advantages over opponents is probably pretty dumb too.

Shoot, look at that Isaac Newton fella. Dude just needed a noggin, his eyeballs and an apple to figure out gravity. Pssh - statistics. Stats are for losers.


I know right?! The human eye has the ability to see all, and the human brain has the ability to perceive everything perfectly clearly, without biases or limitations, every time always. Same goes for that feeling I get in my gut. Or it could be heartburn.

P.S. There's a reason people who think like this are QUICKLY going the way of the dodo bird in front offices and coaching staffs in the NFL. Everybody thought Bill James and Billy Beane were buffoons and "nerds" before they weren't and every organization in MLB decided to literally adopt and mimic their processes too.

Hey - honestly - stats can lie too. Even advanced stats. But they're a helluva lot better than "use the eye test". You still need a heavy dose of expertise on the sport and understanding of how to interpret the stats along with some good old common sense. But, no, stats definitely DO "mean something".

The bad OL grades are a story not many are talking about from Sunday. The Steelers DL had their way with our OL most of the day.

We desperately miss Hubbard IMO

They say 70% of all statistics are made up on the spot by 64% of people that produce false statistics 54% of the time they produce them. At least that's how the old joke goes. But seriously, I do think that sometimes when I read these PFF grades here because their grades for some players make me think "WTF were they watching?". And then I wonder if there are other sites that fact-check PFF.

Hubbard by himself would have faired much better ,

twitter.com/EdGreenberger/status/1454919197029449731

Be interested to hear from those that say Baker was not good enough to win the game.

Hubbard is gone, and probably for good. He's a free agent this offseason, so it's a safe bet he isn't getting a new deal from us.
Alex Taylor, Blake Hance, and James Hudson are NOT on his level, nor are they ready, or capable, of being a legitimate fill in for him.

Conklin is now gone for several weeks, at best.


If Berry doesn't trade for whomever is at the top of Bill Callahan's Wish List, you can take that as a silent acknowledgement of the Front Office waving the white flag on this season.
You can't tell me that with the number of 1 or 2 win teams, none of them run a zone blocking scheme. Identify who you want and get on the phone and pry them away. It's worth a 3rd round pick, easily, to secure that right side.

The game was close. I think you could make the argument that everyone was good enough to win the game.

The issues with Baker run much deeper than this game. He has something wrong upstairs. He doesn't handle pressure well, on the field or off, imo. I think the weight of expectations, the weight of his future contract, and his being scared to make a mistake have led him to where he is now.

Or it could be as simple as he just doesn't understand where to go with the ball after the snap. Maybe he just doesn't get it. OBJ is open so many times during every game. Why he doesn't take those throws is a mystery that is baffling.

I don't think the Browns win another game this season. They don't believe or trust each other or their coach. Body language is awful.

This season could not have gone any worse.

IMO, the stats support what's being seen on the field. Fluky though they might be, they support a (correct) narrative.

If OBJ is running open all over the field, why isn't he getting higher PFF ratings? Beating his man is taken into account in those ratings, right?

Yes, we control our destiny. That frightens me.

"Receivers who consistently beat man and zone coverage, win contested catches or create yards after the catch will grade well in the PFF system. Receivers who fail to separate, fail to catch the ball consistently or fail to create after the catch will grade poorly."

This tells me if OBJ was consistently beating his coverage he would be graded higher. I'm not saying these ratings are the be-all-end-all, but the narrative of OBJ doing his part and Baker not would make more sense if there was something concrete behind it.

I agree. Now we're to the point of MMQBs dissecting every play to say "see -- look, O'dell open again!" I'd imagine you could do that with every WR.

Meanwhile, Baker hits him with a near-perfect pass inside the 5 yard line and OBJ goes up with one hand as if the other arm is handcuffed to his belt buckle. 2:52 left in the 4th, would have been a 39 yard TD. There is a time and a place for those antics (not really), trying to come from behind late in the 4th is not one of those times. Tired of watching that.

I would not describe that pass as “near perfect”.

But would you describe it as catchable?

... catchable for a guy that has made his name on making tough catches?

I definitely think OBJ held up to not get crushed.

To put it in the words of Norm Macdonald

“He’d love to go and we’d love to have us see him go”

Yeah, well... good enough to go up with both hands and make a game-changing catch.

Meanwhile, injured QB staring directly into the sun with Highsmith coming from one side and Watt from the other -- about to Bake themselves a sandwich.

Total fail by a "game-changing" WR who all but refuses to make a catch unless it will show up on SportsCenter.

We can all nitpick about this play or that, there is no chemistry between these two... and frankly, I've seen nothing all season to indicate that Baker should "trust" OBJ.

Peyton Manning talked about trusting your receivers a lot last night on the Manningcast. He was saying that Tyreek Hill has had a few key drops this season and that Mahomes shouldn’t shy away from him because of that and should probably try to get him the ball more to show he is confident in him.

Baker should trust OBJ because he is a player on the field that is trying to help the team win. Whether he is physically capable of getting him the ball on time is the bigger question.

Bottomline. Get the ball to open receivers on time and you will do well.

60% of the time, it works every time.

I wasn't sure how to pull up the correct clip here....on the ball that looks to be a tad behind the receiver...the endzone view.

That is a perfect throw. Note the defender from the right as viewed. had bake led the receiver, he would have led him in to a tremendous hit.

How is he missing the dude wide open in the center of the field 15 yards ahead of him? it’s just odd

j/c...

Lol.

It's not Linear! If Baker can't take a snap from center and hand off with his left hand he's hurting the offense.
IF Baker can't make the millon mile per hour fast ball into the tiny window up the middle that he's used before like vs the giants last year to get back to the one yard line, if he can't make that pass, (or won't because he's afraid of an interception, or won't because it hurts to torque his torso that much) then he's hurting the offense.

If no one can attempt passes down field on a regular basis that would hurt the offense.

Baker is not as able to do as much as Keenum could, last Sunday and probably won't be until, Next year at the earliest, Next September.

Keenum would be better than Baker in abilities, but maybe not interceptions and red zone decisions, It's not linear
Lauletta would be better than Keeenum, in arm strength, but not experience.
Lauletta would be better than injured Baker, but it's not injur.. I mean it's not Linear.

Baker Is limiting what they can do. His injury is too. There are only bad options, this is the best bad option available. And I mean Keenum, (cough, or maybe Lauletta) when I say that.

Rashard Higgins needs to be a bigger part of the offense. What are we doing out there.

In the Minnesota Win, Kareem Hunts determination saved K. Stefanski from bad decisions in playcalling, with that run late in the first half.

There has been a pattern of not scoring points in the 2nd half, going back to before the start of LAST year.
In 2020, they scored a lot in 2nd quarters.

The next game is about Turnovers, and Stupidity.

FWIW, I found the summary tweet from OBR FB to be spot on. Baker, overall, was meh. WRs let him and the team down. Others also played a role in the loss.

Ahhhh,,,just drop in, stir some stuff, then hold up your hands and bow out....lol...I tried to add a wink...just kidding my man