DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Baker Mayfield Part VII: The Dawg Awakens

Here is an interesting stat to throw out...

Baker has attempted some of the least amounts of passes for a starting QB with 344.

Tom Brady 554
Herbert 504
Mahomes 502
Carr 496
Allen 494
Cousins 477

Baker has 40 less pass attempts than Lamar with only about 200 less passing yards and 3 fewer touchdowns
Baker has 111 less pass attempts and only 400 less passing yards than Big Ben and 6 fewer touchdowns

Baker will end up with around 3500 passing yards, 7.5 average, a 63% completion ratio and a 2:1 TD to int Ratio with a 90+ QB rating on about 400 attempts.

He also is now behind only Sipe, Otto, and Bernie on the All-Time Browns Passing Leaders list for Yards, and the same three plus Frank Ryan when you change it to TDs.
On his current pace, he will destroy both Sipe's & Bernie's numbers given the same time span. In four more years, he will sit atop all of the Browns record books.... merely doing only what he's done so far.

Edit to add: he also has a higher career passer rating than all of the above.

But, but, but.....

I'm a Baker fan, but when Graham, Ryan, Sipe, and Kosar played, DB's were allowed to play defense (hands and all), D-line were allowed to head slap, LB were allowed to clothesline WRs on crossing routes, and QBs routinely got murdered. Those guys would love today's NFL. Comparisons across eras, based on stats, are dubious.

Agreed but if you allowed all that in todays game someone WOULD get murdered. The players are much bigger, faster and stronger than they were 50-60 years ago. THe injuries would be much worse than they are now.

There were qb's putting up sick numbers then also. Fouts, Marino, Warren Moon, etc.

I never saw Otto Graham's era, but let me tell you the players in the 90s, 80s, 70s, and 60s were not THAT different than they are today. The mantra for defensive players back then was "mobile, agile, and hostile". It was a much more violent game back then.

Agreed and it was accepted. I remember those Oakland Raider teams of the Late 60's and early 70's. Guys like Deacon Jones, Butkus, Ray Nicthke, Chuck Bednarik and others too many to name. Those Chiefs Raiders games and Raiders Steelers games in the 70's were brutal.

Ce

Baker also is 17 of his last 29 games. + a road playoff game against the Steelers

This can't be correct!! We have more than a couple of posters who have anointed Burrow's as FQB and Baker as average or worse.

But seriously... Imagine how good Burrow's would be with the Browns WRs !

I do really like Burrows. I also really like the Bengals WRs. I think Baker and Burrows will both be very good for years.

LOL...let that sink in for a while. I mean, we have many who say we need to play Rashad Higgins more. I like Higgins well enough, but when we are clamoring for him to play more, that isn't saying much for your starters.

re: Higgins... I just want to be clear that I'm genuinely/honestly/sincerely confused about his situation. I have tremendous respect for Stefanski (and not a whole lot of respect for my own football knowledge). I just don't understand Higgins being a healthy scratch while a PS guy plays over him and then gets cut a week or two after. He did mention special teams, but the offense is struggling and that's a WR that has done good things for us in the past. I'm genuinely confused.

From a schematic/theoretical standpoint, I do wonder if Burrow is a better fit here. Burrows strengths seem to be seeing the field really well and making quick reads. Mixon is a very good 'back, but he's not Chubb (or Hunt for that matter).

Just speculation on my part ...

I actually see a guy like Garoppolo as perfect for KS system (as it is today). He probably makes quicker reads, is less aggressive in looking for big plays, probably less 'gunslinger', less outright arm talent. But he's also been plenty brittle while in the NFL which would be a big ? When JG was a free agent or available - I was desperate to have him. I thought he was going to be great.... He's been great when healthy. If you look at the wins when he starts for 49ers it's impressive. But he hasn't been quite as great as I imagined.

Baker on another team like the Saints or Rams would put up some big numbers for certain - imo. He's got every bit as much arm talent as Stafford.

Others have mentioned it multiple times - one potential issue with signing FA WR's is the lack of desire for a #1 guy to come and be part of the KS system. We are unlikely to ever have a 1200+ yard receiver with 100+ catches.

This year ain't over by any stretch. And re-watching the win vs the Ravens gives me lots of hope for seeing the best of Baker the remainder of this year provided there is no re-aggravation of his shoulder. And we will have all next year to see what he is/can be. In the first half - Baker was exceptional. In the second half he wasn't as good but he was not bad. Folks can look at stats all day - watch the replay. It says a lot lot more. Onwards. Upwards. Playoffs here we come.

The offenses run for/by Burrow, Stafford, Murray, Herbert are what they are in large part because of the ridiculous riches they have in pass catchers...along with talented QBs. We can't run those offenses because we simply do not have the horses to do so...even with NFL-level arm talent at QB. See below.

Every one of those QBs listed have receiving options whom the QB can trust to chuck it in their direction and expect a completion...or a DPI...or at worst an incompletion.

We HAVE shown in a few games that we CAN make the pass attack work at times...even with our various limitations. However, we also can "count" on untimely drops, untimely penalties and suddenly scared-to-conservative coaching plan...with a sometimes inconsistent, injured QB.

Clem said it earlier or elsewhere and I'll add/paraphrase by saying this "In the near future we may look back on this season and marvel at how the heck we did as well as we did."

did you really just mention matt stafford? part of his "ridiculous" riches of pass catchers included a guy we just cut because we somehow couldnt get him the ball.

yall really hellbent on blaming everybody but the guy who has the ball in his hands every snap. yall are the football version of maga hatters. its everybody faults but the guy in charge. and when things go right, its all baker.

this crap is sad.

since the "other" side constantly has our fandom questioned, imma start going at you homers with the same energy.

some of yall posters seem to be a bigger fan of one guy than the actual team. yall will throw the entire team under the bus for one dude just because of his draft status.

here's a FACT for yall: baker STILL looks like ass even after OBJ left. but hey, its not poor little bakers fault. poor baby, its all his receivers!!! and then its chubb and hunts fault!!! and his lame O line!! and joe woods fault for making baker mayfield throw pick after pick every game!!!

im a fan of the team first. which means baker gets critiqued just as hard as anyone else. just like i go hard in the paint when stefanski screws up playcalling.

its easy as hell to route for baker during gamedays. but during the week? watching you guys make excuse after excuse makes it hard to just buy into him. first it was OBJ, now its the ENTIRE receiving core?

that nonsense is laughable. this man had obj, landry, hooper, njoku, chubb, hunt, and one of the best O line in football. THATS an ridiculous amount of riches. baker mayfield has pass catchers AND a dominant run game, something a lot of other QB's in the league dont have. so yea, its really easy to go "damn, if burrow his THIS, what would he do here in cleveland?". you can do that with a lot of QBs around the league. what would watson do with this? lamar, stafford, ryan, etc.

hell, i can credibly argue that our record would be better with mac jones as our QB. imagine your defense getting 4 picks in one game, and still losing the game. imagine your defense holding teams to 17 points or less multiple times, and still losing.

here's something for you guys who refuse to critique baker properly: we lose that broncos game if he plays. and yall wouldve blamed all the injuries and other crap for why we lost. case and d'ernest won that game, but if baker starts, a great defensive effort would've once again been wasted.

lol, matt stafford and mcvay can get obj the ball, but somehow we couldnt? ok.

Swish - normally I like your football takes. On Baker there seems to be some sort of disconnect, and I will repeat what I used to say to Vers when he was here, what I have been saying to Pit recently, and for anyone else making claims that there is any Browns (or Baker) fan that thinks NONE of the passing issues and problems at QB are to do with Baker. Firstly - no-one ever, anywhere said or is saying that. I think everyone - no matter how pro-Baker they might be - says there are a combination of things that all influence Baker's play.... Including Baker. If you want to zero in and talk exclusively about his issues - then we can. If that makes you feel like we are being more balanced - by exclusively talking about Baker's issues - we can absolutely do that. I don't see how that's balanced. But we can do it.

Rookie year it is hard to really criticize too much because what expectations do you have for any rookie? Let alone one that joined the dysfunctional Browns?
- I would say he looked like his mechanics were sloppy sometimes. He didn't go through progressions well. He would zero onto a receiver and hold onto the ball too long. Nothing that anyone would really expect different from a rookie.
- Probably his biggest issue was immaturity and letting things off the field affect him.

Year 2 under Kitchens:
- He came into camp out of shape and under prepared. He looked and sounded like someone who thought he was going to easily continue a successful rookie season.
- He kept running into sacks.
- He had a ton of interceptions on stupid passes / bad decisions.
- He Had a ton of batted balls. Held the ball for the longest of any starting QB.
- Missed high on a ton of open receivers.
- All these things on Baker ... I also *think* he refused to take a QB coach? I think I read that here on dwg talk. but I don't know the truth of it. If true - dumb and arrogant.

Year 3 under KS.
- Really struggled to change and adapt to new footwork and mechanics early in the season.
- Got into a bad habit of double clutching.
- Threw high still early in the season. Got one ore more receivers hurt with throws that were bad decisions.
- Played really badly in 3 bad weather games. It's the AFC North - it's not totally unreasonable to expect your QB to cope with a little wind and rain. . . . I guess.
- Hard to find too much to fault for the last 9 games of the season where he graded out plenty good.

Year 4
- After two great games - he got injured.
- After the injury he sucked donkey ass for many games.
- He missed open receivers at a rate equal or worse than his year two under Kitchens.
- He's not been as bad as year 2 - but he started to get happy feet and panic in the pocket during times when Conklin and/or Wills were out.
- Year 2 and early year 3 and this year - He is bad (among the worst in the NFL) under pressure.


Let me know what I missed.

If you want to have a balanced discussion about all the influences that have contributed to Baker's struggle let me know. If you want to talk about the positives and records set his rookie year, his 9 games last year and two games he played this year without injury. Let me know. . . . To me those are all just as important or in some cases more important to discuss. just my opinion.

id take year 2 baker right now over 2021 baker. i know for a fact our record would be better with year 2 bake. interception and all. gimme that.

I somehow hit a key that posted the comments before I finished.

You call out the one extreme and then parrot the opposite extreme. For me, Baker does look like ass, but it's more nuanced than that. I don't understand many people's need to boil the Baker issue down to 1 thing. It is, has been, and always will be more complicated than that. There's a playcalling aspect, an injury situation aspect, a Baker's ability aspect, and surrounding talent aspect (and not necessarily in that order).

But to respond directly to your post, I think it does tend to be easier to land on the 'defend Baker at all costs/logic' side than it is to fall to the other side. Baker is unquestionably the best QB we've had in a LONG time. The only debate here, IMO is how many decades you have to go back in order to find a better Browns QB. Also, I'm only just now getting over my hesitation to align my opinion with the same people that were ripping Baker for putting up 40+ points in losing efforts earlier in the year.

up until baker, DA was the best QB we've had.

what does that actually mean? what are you saying? that because the other years sucked we should be ok with mediocre?

btw, im not being extreme? have you not paid any attention to posters who went from "its obj fault" to "well our receiving core isnt good"? if you cant recognize that clear pattern, then i dunno what to tell you. im only reacting to whats been posted around here.

i dont care how many decades we gotta go back to. i want us to win division titles and make actual playoff runs. the "well its better than previous years" just doesnt do anything for me. thats like justifying a husband/wife beating on you and going "well, atleast he/she didnt cheat on me like the last one". uuuuuuhhhhhhhhh.....

Regards the OBJ talk.

He was in a system where he needed to be in a spot. And he wasn't. I mean - decide for yourself if you believe the common noise that came out of Berea that supports that. Or not. But I think most everyone accepts OBJ [1] never wanted to be in Cleveland. [2] was not running the right routes consistently.

When he was released the #1 team I mentioned where OBJ would do well was the Rams. They have a different offense and they have a lot of talent.

I only saw a little bit of the Rams game last night - I did see OBJ take a shallow crossing route and break it for 20 yards. Why he wasn't asked to do that in the Browns offense? Ask KS.

But that play - just like Brady's game winner on Sunday - wasn't exceptional or brilliant. Both plays were "routine". Brady was hailed with this brilliant TD winner that was a pretty similar play - a cross that had the WR break it for a big gain. Most QB's can make the same play - the scheme and the WR did the rest. OBJ catch and run was scheme and a good run by an athletic guy. Something 50% or more of the WR in the NFL can do. I'm not slighting either player or play - but let's not heap kudos and claim plays were exceptional when they weren't.... If OBJ made other great plays in the game I don't know, and I am not saying he didn't or couldn't. What I am saying in the Browns offense, he wasn't where he needed to be.

cause matt stafford is better than baker. they also throw the ball more because of no run game. im not asking for us to be a top 5 passing attack like the rams are. but are 25th!!!!

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team...ing/sort/netPassingYardsPerGame/dir/desc

god i love stats, since thats what we're gonna do now. 25th. ALL of us was hyping this entire offensive roster up, but now all of a sudden every playmaker we got is a bum.

would we still be ranked 25th if matt stafford was our QB? would the rams still be 3rd in passing if baker was their QB? you know the answer to that....

I know this is all about Baker - so I guess you might consider this relevant .... What impact do you think a torn Labarum and broken bone in Baker's non-throwing arm might of had? Do you think it helped or hindered? Do you think we are a 25th ranked passing offense without the injury?

Well Mr. Swish,
Long time no speak and Merry Christmas!.
Man I was watching last nights game just getting pissed off at every throw to OBJ. If you really look at the Browns Offense this year, I will go to my grave to say it starts with Stefanski. He is the coach and the play caller. Coach Kevin makes the decision to trot Baker out there every week when he was clearly limited. We have a backup QB for these reasons and some how, a battered Baker with a bad shoulder, bad heal..etc was better than a healthy Keenum. Coach Kevin for some reason has not put a premium on our penalties that we keep racking up every game.

Playcaller Kevin cant see that after his first couple of drives, the defense adjust to what the Browns are doing. If folks think, we usually score in the 1qtr, then our offense goes into the freezer. That is not by chance. Hell, when have you seen any bootlegs, draw plays..etc. Hell, even if we are going to run at these teams, when was the last time you saw the Browns use a unbalanced line. Or just say screw it, instead of the TEs, bring out 2 more linemen and just mash!!.. And dont say that cannot be done because the Pats did that exact formation to the Bills.

And that sorry excuse about not getting OBJ the ball was sorry, terrible and some High school football stuff. EVERY team in our division/conference can get their #1 receiver the ball except Kevin's offense!! Again, that is why Diggs left the Vikings. Kevin's offense is a run first, TE offense, not a WR offense. That is part of the reason why we look lost when we go 5 wide. Last night showed perfectly how OBJ can effect a safety with his deeo threat on the TD to the other WR(#12). Or cutting OBJ across the field against man coverage is how you get him the ball.

Yea, Baker has not looked sharp after his injuries but Kevin aint helping!!

yes, because baker in his first two games wasnt exactly lighting it up either. he got injured in the bears game. go look at his numbers prior to that.

nevermind, i'll do it for you:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401326130

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401326314

by the way, those games i remember mayfield missing dudes who were running wide open.
see, i was just arguing based on the eye test, now that we're using stats, good lord....

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc

you telling me jalen hurts and taylor heinicke is better than mayfield in QBR?

also, its funny you brought up injuries. tell me 888, did he look injured against the bengals? how bout when he was getting hyped during that steelers game?

everybodys injured. every team got people playing hurt. dont pick and choose when injuries are a factor and when they aren't. when bakers running down the field celebrating with the team when they score, i dont want to hear about injuries. baker mayfield has been well known for missing guys high and wide while healthy. so him missing guys high and wide and throwing picks cant be chalked up to injuries.

maybe we should treat him like khawi leonard, and load manage him.

I like Baker. He has a cool personality and has proven this year he is tough as hell. I want him to be great for us. But I was just looking at some stats, and, well, Jared Goff is better. Prove me wrong. He has had a better best season, he has gone to a Super Bowl and at least stat-wise, he is having a better year this year with the lowly Lions. I am not saying this to promote the idea of trading Baker for Goff. I just think it is a scary measuring stick of where we are at QB.

j/c...

Not ideal.

merry christmas bro!!! you need to hit me up more!!

NDC, i have to shoot myself bail here, because i got roasted on this board being the first one to critique stefanski hard on his playcalling this season. i been called that out. so i have no disagreements on that.

that being said, baker still has to execute. even with stefanski, baker has missed guys too many times this season. too many times it hasnt been a playcalling issue but an execution issue. i rightfully trashed stefanski because his playcalling is erratic, and doesnt allow any unit to get into a real flow. the question is whether or not stefanski doesnt trust baker, or he does and this is just scheme he desires to run.

we wont know that until after the season. this is why i said multiple times id take year 2 baker all day everyday right now. cause atleast baker was letting the ball FLY. man we couldve used a lot of that this season. but, stefanski clearly likes his conservative play calling. ok, its a HUGE PROBLEM. if youre gonna be run heavy, your passing attack has to be down the field, not everything short.

but, baker has a problem getting the ball to his receivers even with shorter routes. he has a hard time throwing a screen ball. or a flat route. his throws has been historically high and wide even before injury. is it a height problem? accuracy problem? mechanics? inability to read a defense?

my hope is that that baker truly goes on a 2nd half run like he did last year, and all this crap at the beginning of the season is forgiven. but who knows. we can speculate all we want, but its about what stefanski and berry do after the season.

I'm merely pointing out that claiming Baker is the whole problem suggests replacing Baker is the solution. We've had quite a few attempts at getting the 'right' QB and have failed miserably every single time (and that wasn't DA... dude was a flash in the pan). Mediocre, as bad as it is, is better than hot garbage.

I don't listen to the apologists that were complaining about OBJ... and then complained about the WR corps in general to excuse Baker's play. While the play of the pass-catchers is an aspect in the offense's struggles, using that as an excuse for Baker's play is ridiculous and doesn't deserve a rebuttal.

I do think we could probably use another 'good enough' WR. That could be Schwartz with a year under his belt, but I doubt it.

I do think our 'go-to' catching TE shouldn't have as many drops as Hooper does. Him and his contract really frustrate me on Sundays.

I'm hoping Hudson can step into the role Hubbard occupied because I think Hubbard is done here (which is a bummer).

I think Stefanski needs to do a LOT of self-evaluation and improvement as a playcaller if he's going to cling to that role.

Similarly, Baker needs to figure out what he can do this year, and he needs to get healthy next year and diagnose his lack of decisiveness in the pocket. The Kurt Warner video showed that he STILL has some room for improvement in his technique (his footwork, no less, which was being drilled into Baker when AVP showed up).

So you think any of that excuses his performance in seven of the last eight halves of football he's played? Well of course you do. So do some other people.

It is rather odd that when he lit it up in the first half in the Ravens game nothing indicated his injuries bothered him or his production. But as soon as things go south we hear, "But he's injured".

If we're actually going to break it down big picture as you suggest, in a sixteen game season that's only about a 2.5 passes per game difference.

This was as of a month ago....

JC

Like most, I think there are a lot of factors involved. However, that stat seems skewed. Do the break it down my drop% or something? We don't throw as often as most of the teams at the top.

Regardless, I don't think we're at the top of the list. But drops don't always show full picture of efficiency and productivity (separation, blocking, etc.), but it does give a idea of the basic skill a receiver should have.

Show me anyone, anywhere that said Baker didn't play as well in the second half of the Ravens game because of injury. . . . Oh, you can't because no-one said that. You are making chit up. Again.

As for the second half and how Baker played. I suggest you go watch the game and tell us what you see instead of looking at an alleged stat and thinking that tells the story.