DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2021 NFL Season Looking Back: Browns 14 Raiders 16 Postgame thoughts

We've won as many games as we've lost this season. Last year with the same coaching staff we made the playoffs. Stefanski and crew have won far more games than they've lost and I'm the one who can't see a pattern?

In four of the last four games Baker started he thew for over 50% for one of the last eight halves of football he's played. Do you see a pattern?

So , how's the weather on that Island of yours ..lol

I think this is the essence of a lot of people's angst with the play calling and playing not to lose. Against all expectations we were in position to win and instead of calling plays to win, we called plays 'not to lose' ... Being in that position with all the challenges we had faced is why I don't get the vitriol in many people's posts - but having gotten the team to a winning position the coaching ethos is absolutely apparent and frustrating.

I'm not on an island. It's not my fault that some on here actually felt that winning this game was expected and that they didn't do a great job under the circumstances. In the Dawgtalker pickem's 14 people selected the Raiders to win. 9 selected the Browns to win. Even with homerism involved the majority didn't think we would win this game. That's not an island.

And had they called a pass play and it had been intercepted people would be questioning why we left our fate in the hands of a third string QB rather than our best offensive weapon on the field, Chubb.

Steelers are about to backdoor their way into the playoffs....

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
More COVID issues in KC, which is becoming this week’s hot spot.

Chiefs’ WR Tyreek Hill, CB Rashad Fenton and TE Blake Bell are being placed on Reserve/COVID, sources tell @adamteicher
and me.

Other players likely coming but as one source said, “it’s a mess.”

Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
And so the status for Chiefs’ WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce and K Harrison Butker all are in question for Sunday’s game vs. Steelers.

You are right. And somewhere in there it probably said in that situation, it was best to get the ball out of your 3rd string QB's hands as quickly as possible and in to the hands of Nick Chubb, the best skill position player on the team at that time.

You mean something like that?

I don't fault the play call other than we had been running better to the left.

I haven't checked, but left may have been the shorter side of the field, I don't know.

If at random someone bet you $100 Chubb couldn't gain 3 yards on his next carry, would you take the bet? I would and suspect most would.

It's a sad, sad day when one needs to use the pick 'em distribution to justify an argument/position. How far we have fallen.

Yeah, the majority of Browns fans that didn't think we could win this game has nothing to do with how people felt before the game. I know what sad looks like. I just read your last post.

Not when the other team schemes for that very possibility - you know like 10 guys all going in the same direction as the runner.

I would not, but then I would play to win, regardless of whether it is my 3rd string QB or not. We had them right where we wanted them. All expected run, perfect opportunity to fake handoff in direction desired and roll back. Peel the TE off the edge and dump it off. High percentage pass. If drops it, oh well - they get 1 more play. Very low possibility of interception unless QB throws it right at the 1 defender. 2nd worst case is it is dropped or he slides down and takes sack. Best case, 1st down and game just about over.

888, I do not think we called plays “not to lose” . They called plays they thought would gain ten yards and at the same time would eat clock or force them to use their timeouts. I would bet that if you reviewed every nfl game this season that strategy was used dozens of times successfully. It did not work for us. No series of playcalls guarentees a first down and if we throw one or two incomplete passes they get the ball back with timeouts in their pocket.

One other thought. I can remember more than one game when we held a small lead, took possession late in the game and ran the ball successfully right down their throats. Ate up the clock! I do not know if we were playing “not to lose “ then, but it worked.

Except this thread isn't "pregame thoughts" it's "postgame thoughts" and you're choosing to chastise posters for having opinions about late-game playcalling by pointing out how people gave us little chance of winning before the kickoff.

The two things are not associated.

That's not necessarily a "win" or "lose" thing. It's a spread thing.

They had 2 timeouts only and used both by 3rd down. Exactly what we wanted with run plays on 1st and 2nd down - and we had gained 7 yards - most important to that point because it set us to run or pass on 3rd down. Playing "not to lose" was running on 3rd down. Playing "to win", in my estimation, was to scheme a high percentage pass play on 3rd down.

Actually I think they are at least to some degree. Nothing changes the fact we had 19 players on the covid list and we started our #3 QB. The roster didn't improve over the course of the game. What happened was that against all odds our team managed to hang in there for as long as they did. But games are decided by a full four quarters, not a partial game. Sometimes a team plays over their heads. You have 2-10 teams beat 10-2 teams. As of late there have been quite a bit of upsets all across the league. Now that doesn't mean that the 2-10 team is better than the 10-2 team.

What we did was take a team that should have been defeated rather soundly and managed to hang in there and stay in the game for almost all of it. The problem became when at the very end what was expected to happen, happened. Being a fan in the heat of the moment can alter your way of thinking. And it is disappointing that we couldn't hang on until the end. But when looking at all the circumstances with our roster, wasn't that the more realistic expectation?

I suppose people can say we should have expected to win with a third string QB if they would like. I think people can say they expected us to beat the Raiders because we hung in for so long. But to me it's far more about allowing yourself to think we were actually fielding a team that wouldn't most likely come up short at the end. But i can see why.

Yes there was a 3 point spread. But then we can look at the prediction thread in this forum. There were as many or more that thought we were doomed from the beginning. That probably would have been a better example.

I mean we're stuck in a rut of "guard rails" that we established long ago, most based on analytics (imo).

That said, I'm mostly talking about defense -- and it goes back almost two full seasons now -- playing "math" instead of playing to win. Remember all those blown leads last year that nearly resulted in losses? This year a few have.

As far as the Chubb run, sure I'd take that bet, most days.

I don't even have that much of a problem with the run as I do the series. We're playing to "burn the clock" when it was impossible to get the clock under 2:00 anyway (without a 1st down). Is that extra 25 seconds what gets them in position for the FG? Probably not as 2:00 is an eternity anyway. So... run, run, run.

What would I do? Definitely pass on first or second down, high percentage, TE screen has been working well.

If it's 3rd and 3, and you want to run Chubb... here's a thought... DON'T line up with only one WR and both TEs in tight, FB in the backfield! Is there anyone on the planet that didn't know we were running?? They had nine men in the box because they had no reason to believe it would bite them. Four LBs available to cover two TEs and a Fullback IF we decided to pass.

It seems like we always put the opposition in the best situation to succeed without them even having to do any thinking!

Fixed it.

When I took the raiders for my pick, they were +6.5. or, the Browns were -6.5. I certainly didn't feel, with all the covid cases on the Browns, and a 3rd string qb with no starts for the Browns - that we would win by 7 or more.

I don't know where you got the 3 point spread.

j/c...

I'm allowing myself to get hooked again...what a sickness.

Ari Meirov
@MySportsUpdate
The #Packers placed WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Green Bay plays on Saturday vs. Cleveland.

Camryn Justice
@camijustice
Packers HC Matt LaFleur said he doesn't anticipate LT David Bakhtiari or CB Jaire Alexander to play in Saturday's #Browns game.

That was the change in the point spread on the national betting line. But you're right. Are you saying you expected the Browns to win given those circumstances?

We just need Aaron, Davante, A. Jones, Dillon, and the Smiths to be put on the list and we have a chance.

It’s hard to understand your point because you sometimes change your argumentation whenever you’re countered with reasonable questions. We’re discussing our approach late in games when we have a a good winning possibility. Some of us argue that we’re a little bit too conservative and therefore throw away good opportunities. Both the offense and the defensive has these habits in my and many others view.

With better results comes higher expectations and therefore our coaching staff also needs to adjust there game plan so we play as a winning team the whole game, not only parts of it. As underdogs it’s acceptable with a mix results but if you’re going to take the next step and challenge the big guns you need consistency and a more brave approach.

The national betting line had nothing to do with your first post about this when you said "on dawgtalkers pickem" 14 people took the raiders. That doesn't mean what you think it means.

It's really hard for me to get on the defense when we are 5th in the NFL in ypg, 12th in points, and over the last 8 weeks we have averaged giving up less than 20 points and we are only 4-4 in those games.... and that includes our one game of giving up 45 points... If you take that one out, we are averaging giving up 15.5 points per game over 7 games and we are 4-3... Really hard to pin this on the defense.

Look at this game, the defense made the INT in the crucial situation to win the game, the offense just needed to get 1 first down... and they couldn't do it.

I said you were right or at least tried to. I said the prediction thread would have been a better example. Now what more do you want than that?

Now, back to my question. With 19 players on the covid list and starting our third string QB, under those circumstances did you think the Browns were going to win this game when you made your picks?

There would be some - somewhere for sure. Because some people aren't honest with themselves. It's the same with hindsight draft picks ... I can't speak to those people and I'm not worried about those people, I am simply telling you what I see as a problem. Before the play ran I wanted a play action pass and I would have lived or died with that play call quite happily even it it was an interception, a sack a fumble or an incompletion. Making that one play for 3 or 4 yards - virtually guarantees a win.

So the missed tackles on the play that allowed them to get into position to make the field goal is on the coaching staff?

And if they had allowed Mullens to pass and it was intercepted are you saying people wouldn't be asking why they didn't put the ball in the hands of our best play maker, Chubb?

You see, if and when the plays called work, it's not a problem. When the play selection fails it's always a problem. I would say it may have been better to have ran left instead of right on that play but putting the game in the hands of your best player on the field isn't something i'm going to question the coaching staff over. I'm also not going to blame them for a couple of missed tackles.

Play action would have been a viable alternative. I'm just not sure that means the play that was called was a bad one.

DC...my comment about playing NOT TO LOSE is directed at the coaches calling the defenses, not players. The players responsibility is to carry out their assignments and to give the effort needed to complete their assignment.

It's a shame those coaches missed those tackles that allowed the Raiders to get in FG range.

You revert to individuals when I and many others talks about our overall conservative approach.

Nothing wrong with giving our best offensive player maker the ball in a crucial situation but what’s wrong is to do it so often that your opponents often can read your 4Q game plan as a open book. I was 100% sure more then 30 seconds before our third attempt on our last drive that Chubb would run with the ball, and I think it’s fair to say that the Raiders coaching staff made a similar assessment. Our line up was so predictable that it was painful to watch the outcome. That’s 100% on our coaching staff. The best person inside our organization to change those habits is our GM. If he gives Stefanski a license to be more adventurous then our game plan would be less predictable. Just so there is no misunderstanding, I don’t say the game plan itself is bad just that sometimes it’s a little bit too easy to see what’s coming.

Regarding the defense I’m more then happy with what they produce but when the game is in it’s late stages our line up have a tendency to become static and little bit scared. I don’t like that because the best defenses often do the opposite and attack or blitz when there’s only one or two more plays to go.

When I make picks on the spread, I don't look at who I feel will WIN the game. It's fairly simple.

can someone go spread covid to the Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers? lol jk.

if they all lose, we can be back in first place with a win against Green Bay

I'm going to put this game in the rear view mirror after this, but this just occurred to me. I was aware that Myles Garrett was injured, but still playing. I have to believe that Joe Woods knew Myles was hurt too, but he still did not dial up anything more than a token CB blitz on a 2nd down in the Raiders final drive (that I saw). Putting pressure on Carr should have been paramount at that point in the game, and instead we dropped 7 into a rather crappy umbrella / zone D.

Oh well ... I'm done ... on to Green Bay.

yep

Just clicking.

Yeah let’s fire the coaches, that’s always done wonders for us.

You'd think so. But here we are!

Losing an AFC game is always a worse loss than losing an NFC game in the regular season for an AFC team under the current rules.