DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2022 NFL Season 2022 NFL Draft Draft trade up? trade down?

I feel like this is a pretty deep draft for WR and DE, and there's going to be a lot of value picking them in 2nd round.

My dream scenario for this draft would have us trading back with Detroit at #32, who is looking to move up to get a QB after passing on them with their 1st pick. I'd love to get pick #32 and their 1st next year, but if they balk at that, I'd be happy to get picks #32, #34, and their 2nd rounder next year (and maybe more!).

We could still get really good DE and WR prospects at #32 and #34, plus #44 to fill another hole (DT? OL? TE? LB?) or double dip with another WR or DE. Really whoever is BPA; and with the depth of this draft at DE and WR, that matches up really well with our needs.

Getting some draft capital for next year is important; I want Baker to succeed in the worst way, but if he falls flat next year and we need to move on, we need picks to either trade for an established starter or move up to get the rookie we want.

I agree. I don't see this as a great draft class, but a deep draft class. As you said, we should be able to draft receivers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds who won't be much of a drop off from the 1st round guys.

The Lions pick would definitely be Ideal as their pick could possibly be high next year.

I think one of the enticing things for us this year is we have and extra 3rd (comp pick) and 4th (from the Lions) rounders. Those are valuable possible trading chips. We could use one to move up a round for a targeted player, we could use one sweeten the pot on moving back and picking up a next years first, if a team is hesitant on trading, or maybe get value by trading one for one round higher in next years draft.


I agree and believe also this is a deep draft especially in areas of need. And I know I sound like a broken record , but I want one of next years QB prospects, not this year.

I don't want a QB from next year's draft. I want Baker to play at a level that makes him the long term solution for the Browns !!

Agree we are set up nicely for flexibility in the draft.

I think all but the most ardent Baker haters want that. Just some context to keep in mind, so if I say I would rather select a QB next year v this year, which is true, my first choice is to not have to select a QB at all.

I do think that is a looming possibility, so it is best IMO to be prepared if such a move is necessary.

Possibly. I think more possible to get towards the top of round 2, but hey, anything with-in reason is possible.

You bring up a good point. Maybe a team would do that. It might take more for the extra year you mention.

Like I said, nearly anything is possible. My feeling is at this point we are talking about the draft and team needs in the same breath. Free agency is where you address team needs. If you haven't done it there, you are behind the 8 ball to a large degree. First, rookies are unproven and history shows a good number of them never end up being the player teams had hoped to draft.

Second, few rookies come in and take the world by storm. It usually takes a season or two, so if we are counting on rookies to immediately fill a big need, we are probably going to fall short.

Hey - I'm on board.

This is easy. Bad draft except for WR, which is the position of glaring need. Don't trade up or down in Round 1. Just pick the best WR on the board at 13. If you want to move up in Round 2, fine. It worked with JOK.

I have always heard that receiver is one of the harder transitions to the NFL.

I get it. ……so do the trade anyways, I’ve stated a few times, if he works out, great don’t draft one next year. Now you have 2 first rounders to play with however u want.

Pulling this from a different thread because it has more to do with my feelings on this one:

I've been scoffing at this notion since it became a talking point. I've always felt like a lot of people see elite talent at the top, in any given category, and say "this is a ____ heavy draft".

"So are there more good WRs just because the top four are so good? Nope." (Talking to myself)

The more I think about it, the more I see the reasoning... for the simple reason that it, indeed, applies to "attainable talent" given your draft slot(s). It finally makes a bit of sense to me. If three or four teams draft WRs in the first round, they already have theirs, and now your competition at that position is severely diluted.

The sticking point for me is how I "tier" these players. It would be a lot harder to walk away from probable first day starter, probable #1, in some cases: probable "can't miss" star-in-the-league... in favor of "could be?" and trying to interpret upside against draft position. I don't think that's wise when the former is falling right into your lap... BUT, if you have a player targeted and believe that the only reason he's not tier one and going in the first round is because four already did, then I'm all for it.

Where this would impact my decision would be possibly trading down. And that would have to come at a big "discount".

I would trade down *if and only if* I get a 1st round pick next year as insurance for what may or may not happen in the QB department this year.

Ideally that partner would be a below average team with a fairly high second. I would swap picks and maybe even throw in next years 3rd (compensatory) for that teams 1st round pick in 2023.

No first round reward in 2023, pound salt.

I think what it means is you get what would be a WR ranked as a first round pick in most drafts in round 2. I don't ave any idea how many WR's our FO has on their "top tier" list. I don't know how many WR's will have been picked by the time we pick at #13. All of that certainly plays a part in their decisions I would think. But I believe that if they have two or three WR's they think stand out above all the others by a significant margin and one has already been selected by our #13 pick they would most likely take a WR in round 1. If they have five grouped together at the top and only one has been selected by pick #13 they may wait until round 2.

For a team that is both in need of talent AND quantity for the WR room, I could see us leaning on both lines of thought.

Any player can be a 1st day starter. They just might not be as good.

In all seriousness, bust rates of 1st round receivers is fairly high. It isn't as high for 2nd and 3rd rounds. Those 2nd rounders may not turn in to superstar players, but many turn in to very good players. In the end, is that all that bad? I don't think so.

Yeah, but then you're playing a very dangerous game... Now you've traded at least three opportunities at a "sure thing" for the uncertainty of what the next 31 teams will do.

That's really the elephant in the room with this draft situation. Knowing how things play out before us is really simple (imo), one of these WR may be gone (plenty of mocks have us taking the first). We can be nearly positive that at least two of these guys will be available at 13.

We have no control how fast these guys go once other teams see the discount. If we have any inkling of passing in the 1st round we don't need to worry about 1-13, we need to worry about 14-43.

I don't know how you quantify "bust rate" but that would probably apply to all 1st round picks then, right?

If that's your draft philosophy, just trade out of the first every year.

Ceedee Lamb
Justin Jefferson
Brandon Aiyuk
Jamar Chase
Jaylen Waddle
DeVonta Swith

There's you "cream of the crop" from the last couple drafts. *all first round picks*

Over 700 catches / over 10,000 yards.

I'll take my chances.

Cool. Here is one article, similar to others covering my point.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nf...-receiver/ar-AAUgpGS?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Yes!

(Maybe not out but definitely down.)

I'm nearly always a proponent!

This draft happens to intersect (by far) greatest actual need, with (perceived) talent, AND probable availability. That's the triple crown in 1st round draft choices.

Sometimes you don't try to outsmart yourself. This FO won't.

And as to your article, Peen, he states his case clearly, and it's the real "meat" of the argument... The problem with effectively separating the anomaly (highly productive starter / star) from the norm (average production all the way down to BUST) is the real demon. My reply to you is that is true with every draft choice. It's amplified with every first round pick, from every position.

Nobody wants to draft a bust with their first pick, but it happens (in large numbers) every year. Where I'll agree with you is the position of WR and QB (especially since we've effectively de-valued RBs). But that doesn't mean great players aren't available, it just means (in many cases) you suck at evaluating talent.

If you're not sure ~ trade down! (Most years)

Though I never posted as much over the years. I have thought the same and agreed with you both about that strategy through the years.

Funny enough Fate, I posted the same thoughts about throwing in a 3rd or 4th since we have the comp picks, if that sweetens the deal to get that future 1st.

As a leader, one thing I preach is being proactive then being reactive. That term has obviously been around for years. My caveat before I say this: the saying it takes two to tango, and you need a willing trade partner. The proactive side of this is we are still waiting to see what to do with Baker. While we are waiting, we are preparing for next year by getting that extra 1st rounder so we can move up to make our QB pick. If Baker shows that he is worth that second contract, then now we have options with our two first round picks. If the QB class is strong, that means two positional players will drop. That is a chance to add two 5 year rookie contracts at positions of need/BPA.

Or it means we can use one in a trade to fall back (and start the cycle over for the following year) or maybe trade for a top player that wants to move on from his Unit.

The key to this is really we are using free money (picks) instead of trading our own base picks. A way to think about it, this is expendable cash instead of pulling money out of your bank account. More picks acquired, more chances to hit on those picks. Baltimore is a prime example of this over the years with comp picks they acquire. While it's usually not first round picks, they have received extra comp picks over the years to play around with. This gives them more wiggle room to work with. I would like to think this lessens the stress during the draft, b/c it opens up more options with the extra collateral.