DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Russia looks ready to invade Ukraine

Biden needs to sack up.

I wasn't really impressed by it either. I was more impressed in speech the gave the other day. I think Biden also fell short in the sanctions he could have used.

Maybe the only part we disagree with is I don't think anything Biden would or could say makes a difference in Putin's mind. Putin knows we just got out of a 20 year war in Afghanistan. Russia knows first hand the impact that has on your military. Putin doubts the resolve that NATO has in waging war with Russia. I think he's basing his actions on the current situation with European leaders and their willingness to take actions to actually stop him and not by sabre rattling or the lack there of.

Where I think Putin may be making a mistake is if he thinks the same thing would hold true of he attempted to invade a NATO country.

The only thing Putin understands is strength and sanctions aren't doing it. You also can't wait a month to see what happens, it doesn't work like that.

That could be. I think we absolutely need to have a red line for NATO countries, or the whole thing crumbles. If he crosses that line, it has to be a galvanized rain fire type reaction from all of NATO.

You're thinking is far too simplistic and trying to color everything Black & White as if it all has to fit inside a neat little box. That's not how "our turf" works. They are a strategic ally. They have things we need. They have tons of resources that benefit our nation. That makes it OUR TURF. Helping and aiding ANY aspiring/rising democracy is OUR TURF. Stopping asshat dictators from invading neighbors that are important to us is OUR TURF.

Beyond that, Ukraine applied to begin a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) in 2008. On 21 February 2019, the Constitution of Ukraine was amended, the norms on the strategic course of Ukraine for membership in the European Union and NATO are enshrined in the preamble of the Basic Law, three articles and transitional provisions. At the June 2021 Brussels Summit, NATO leaders reiterated the decision taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine would become a member of the Alliance with the Membership Action Plan (MAP) as an integral part of the process and Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy. As of June 2017, nearly 70% of Ukrainians supported joining NATO. The only reason they aren't in already is that back in 2010, one of the elected presidents decided he didn't want to be part of it, but that president was so poor that he has since fled the country.


By your reasoning, we'd still be on the sidelines in 1943.

if the anti-war protest is happening, Biden so far is doing as well as he could. right now cyber attacks is the best option, because there's a chance Russia's regime collapses on itself due to the war.

if my intelligence communities have any such pull, im cyber attacking russia, opening up all communication, unrestricting access to internet and flooding information out. im calling apple and samsung, telling to load up these c-130 planes with unlocked iphones and air drop them all over Russia.

No, Europe was our allies long before WW2. Let's just say our threshold for sending our young men and women to die in foreign wars are different. And war for resources is not my threshold. If the very nations currently getting these resources on a heavy basis don't care enough to send in troops, neither am I.

only military action right now is to push back. wait til the anti-war protest get really big then start hammering russian military bases through the sky.

That's because any "pain" from sanctions was already baked in to his decision. That sure as hell isn't Biden's fault. We look about as strong and resolved as we can "working with a team".

That's where this whole discussion between Pit and Prp, NATO and "Turf", comes into play. We can only be as strong as our weakest link if we're going to make sure all of Europe is appeased by the decision.


This says a lot:


Too much intertwined trade makes the ROW more leary of such a step. That's the only sanction that would return immediate pain and cut off Russia from all international banking and profits.

Where Biden failed (in his address) is insisting these other things, combined, are more severe than SWIFT (bs) and followed up with "give it a month or two and you'll see". Dumb statement as SWIFT is about as swift as swift can be.

So beyond these sanctions, which will do little to dissuade Putin and nothing to stop him, where do you go from here?

I think they were underway originally, and then 1,000+ people got arrested. I would love for information to be opened up and the Russian populace to push back, but I just don’t see it, unfortunately. He’s pretty Machiavellian when it comes to controlling his populace.

If there’s a movement we have to grow it. The more people hear that Putin doesn’t even have the backing of his own people, it’s gonna spread faster than COVID.

We’re in a digital age, so not even Putin has full control it.

side note... why did he look down at a sheet of paper to see who he had to call on next and why is she asking questions off of a sheet of paper?

Did I miss something?

It would be wonderful if there was an internal uprising. If Putin was usurped. But it will not happen. Putin is a ruthless, deadly dictator. He's also clearly unstable based on what he's doing and threatening now. If there is a way to spread mass propaganda and messaging throughout Russia - by all means try. I just don't see any likelihood it succeeds.

I agree the US and Nato and the UN should attack and send a message - however painful - that acts of war against countries and occupations will not be tolerated. It would send a clear message to China and Nth Korea. It should be swift and uncompromising.

All the time.

I really hope so, bro.

Like you and MGH I’m not sure. But it’s better than total war. But eventually we gotta hit them

https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-reports-nine-chinese-aircraft-155825304.html

Here we go…

This type of thing has been going on for a while now.

Yeah, im not necessarily being alarmist about it, but it’s not coincidental timing. I imagine the frequency of these will pick up and they will watch Ukraine closely. Im sure their confidence level is increased given how Putin is rolling into Ukraine now. If he expands into a NATO turf and the reaction is not one of a proverbial electric fence, I could see them green lighting going into Taiwan.

saw this on FB. not sure it is 100% accurate but... interesting information
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=5217091064970505&set=a.684015104944813


For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter? “
This is why Ukraine matters.
It is the second-largest country by area in Europe and has a population
of over 40 million - more than Poland.
Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialized country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defense industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).
Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world

There's no doubt the world is watching and will act in what they see as their own best interests accordingly.

There have been several times China has ramped up the invasion of Taiwan air space. The last ones that come to mind are April of 2021, and both June and October of 2021.


I'm not sure why actions being taken in a nation who is a member of NATO would be relevant. Taiwan is just like Ukraine in the fact neither are members of NATO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the country's business leaders that he expected "restrictions" on Russia's economy, but said Russia had taken a "necessary measure" by launching a large-scale military offensive against Ukraine.

In remarks aired Thursday on state television, Putin said:

"What I wanted to say first – the most important thing, so you all understand – what is going on was a necessary measure. They didn’t leave us any chance to act otherwise. They created such risks in the sphere of security that it was impossible to react in a different way. All our efforts came out to zero. […] They created such risks that it’s difficult to comprehend how our country could have continued to exist."
US and Western leaders have pledged harsh sanctions, with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urging the West to ban Russia from the SWIFT international payments system. Putin noted that Russia remained part of the global economic system, but warned of further "restrictions" to the Russian economy and called for business to work "in solidarity" with the government.

“It seems to me that our partners should understand this and not set themselves the task of pushing us out of this system," Putin said. "Nevertheless, for political reasons, these restrictions will happen."

US President Joe Biden is set to announce further sanctions on Russia in the next hour.

https://www.cnn.com/?refresh=1

russian business owners about to have a very surprised look on their face...

So, what are the odds that all the world's psychos decide they want to come out and dance in the street?

Second-tier tyrants cashing in on the world chaos?

Good chance this ish gets ugly.

Be quite something if Ukraine can bloody their nose

"What I wanted to say first – the most important thing, so you all understand – what is going on was a necessary measure. They didn’t leave us any chance to act otherwise. They created such risks in the sphere of security that it was impossible to react in a different way. All our efforts came out to zero. […] They created such risks that it’s difficult to comprehend how our country could have continued to exist."

Did he actually even say anything here?

Putin clearly didnt think Ukraine would push back like they are doing. like you said, even being able to bloody their nose would be something.


nope. but he's trying to maintain that narrative the last few weeks about being cornered and blah blah blah. saw some unconfirmed reports about officials inside the kremlin being surprised Putin actually invaded.

im telling you, all of this comes off as a guy who's looking at his own mortality and desperate to make some sort of lasting impact with his dream of a reunified Russia.

i hope we extend his life as long as possible so that he has to live in a world where the very opposite happened.

That would be awesome. but I don't speak that language. As mgh said, it would be great of Ukraine could bloody their (russia's) nose.

If/when things escalate - if/when russia starts cyber attacks on our power grid, I feel it would be time to act in a much more "meaningful" manner towards them.

Let the cyber attacks go the other way - towards russia.

That would be fantastic, but it may be hard to tell what is factual and what is disinformation for a while, or until we can get reliable independent information. Like the report of a Russian platoon surrendering, it may be too good to be true.

Putin getting overthrown and his body dragged through Red Square would be a lovely sight, but I'm not holding my breath.... and the rest of Europe needs to cure their Cranial Rectalysis and more needs to be done about this. Nobody, ever, that is starting a war, cares about sanctions. You go into it knowing that you're burning bridges. Those things aren't going to stop or deter you.

i agree with you. right now if you look on social, there's a bunch of reporters/companies offering free VPNs to people on the ground in ukraine/russia to report. a really good cyber attack would be for us to lift all restrictions on global communications in Russia. already anti-war protesters getting arrested in ST. petersburg, so fan that flame.

and not gonna lie:



if this is true i'd be pleasantly surprised. that means NATO is in lockstep with each other, nobody wavering. Turkey was the country i expected to look the other way, would be nice to be wrong about that.

yep. i doubt we see something like that as well. but if there's any sort of hesitation with russian soldiers pushing in, it has to be exploited.

at the very minimum, the moral authority to counter strike is already there. but if these reports are even halfway true, nothing will ruin Putin more than not even being able to control his own people.

Having meetings, that's about what they are good for.

The problem with the sanctions is they aren't as hard as it can get, but we have to have the allies on board to carry that out.

If you are the chancellor of Germany, and you are getting half of your energy from Russia, you aren't going to be all that eager to throw your country in to a depression of sorts. I know I wouldn't.

We'll see how it all plays out over the next few weeks.

Are they?

They didn't see this coming?

I'd say they've already laughed all the way to a Belgian bank. Not that it's Joe's fault.

We have an agreement to come to Taiwan’s defense.

Edit - my bad. We did have that but it expired. I thought it was reincorporated into the 1979 TRA, but it’s a watered down version which requires the US to provide Taiwan with weapon systems (of which I’ve been involved myself) along with the US maintaining the capacity to resist to force or any other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security…of the people of Taiwan.

So not unequivocal but definitely more than we have/had with Ukraine. We also have been selling them billions in our own weapon systems vs Ukraine which presumably has mostly Russian equipment, I presume.

honestly, yea bro. i think there's a lot of people inside russia who didnt see this coming. i think a lot of people - even pro-kremlin types - thought this was posturing.

I was worried about Turkey as well. They have probably the most respectable military in the vicinity of Russia as well.

I think I either read on here somewhere or saw on CNN that some of the Russian elites were actually shocked he went through with it.

yea its been making rounds on some of the live updates. hard to confirm of course, but thats a mini narrative currently out there.

aye refs if this isnt allowed, let me know. i just think its important for people to see what this crap looks like. ask anybody who was deployed early-mid 2000's in the middle east. this is exactly what aspects of combat look like. and this is just a tiny sample size.




Purp said something earlier that i had to really think about when it comes to NATO, or any sort of alliances. when you have peace this long, you start to question if the spending is worth it. we can talk about reckless spending, or HOW we're spending it, but hopefully this serves as an example that yea; alliances like this matter. the fact that people are seeing this for the first time in a long time is a testament to how well NATO has done being a defensive beacon/force. alliances like this really do deter a lot of bad actors.

nobody wants reckless, unlimited spending on defense. but Putin should be a reminder that there are people in this world who dont give a damn about words or sanctions.