DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

If that's how you want to see it. I think social media and regular people are forcing this late aid and change of view from governments around the world. I find it fascinating because I've never seen anything like it.

j/c...

It's extremely rare that somebody attacking another country is as committed to the cause as the people defending their own country.

From yesterday...

Chris Murphy
@ChrisMurphyCT
Just leaving classified briefing on Ukraine crisis. A few takeaways that I can share:

1/ Confirmation that the Russians have fallen behind their timeline. Ukrainian resistance has been fierce and there have been multiple Russian equipment and logistics failures.

Chris Murphy
@ChrisMurphyCT
2/ DoD and DHS are pressing hard for Congress to end the continuing resolution and get a budget passed. There is no way for our national security agencies to be nimble enough to support Ukraine if they are operating on the 2020/21 budget.

Chris Murphy
@ChrisMurphyCT
3/ The ability to keep supply lines running to Ukraine remains alive, but Russia will try to encircle and cut off Kiev in the next several weeks. The fight for Kiev will be long and bloody and Ukrainians are rapidly preparing for street to street combat.

Chris Murphy
@ChrisMurphyCT
4/ The U.S. and allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his oligarch allies, but to seize those assets as well. This is likely a further step than Putin’s inner circle anticipated.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1498477863804313600

I also think that there were so many fake videos created at the beginning of the invasion that was trying to inspire people to stay and fight. The first 2-3 days it seemed like every 10th post on Twitter turned out to be CGI, from 2014, or a video game.

Except I don't believe the Ukrainians need any motivation to stay and fight. Not all will - but those that will, aren't responding to social media posts. As has been mentioned a few times in many places - Ukrainians are a tough breed. As are the Russians they face. The difference is one group live in a democracy and have more access to freedom of information - the other is under what is essentially a dictatorship.

[quote=Milk Man]These tweets are from 23 minutes ago...




This is exactly what I was talking about when I posted my skepticism on what's being reported/put out via social media. One article has this massive convoy on Kiev's doorstep, another one said it hasn't moved because it's stuck.

I'd take U.S. Intelligence word for it. Also, "on Kyiv's doorstep" is a relatively subjective term. You can also track the convoy....

Good question on UAV strikes. Given my familiarity with them, I’m quite surprised they were carried out effectively. As far as I know, most UAVs that are capable of striking are all weak, slow flyers who would pose zero threat to armed enemy aircraft. We were so effective using them because we flew them in areas where we had clear air superiority or air supremacy. I’m a little shocked, frankly, that Ukraine was able to use them in an area where the opposite is the case.

You are so much more well versed on such things than I am. I'm glad you share the input of your experiences so I can gain such information.

Pretty much each and every of your posts on here have been a treasure trove of info.

Thanks man. I don’t know about all that. I just think you happened to touch on something I actually know something about (aerial weapon systems).

j/c...

Aight, Apple and Samsung just need to air drop a bunch of unlocked iPhones and android smart phones with preloaded crypto wallets, and the Russians will surrender.

Hopefully, I kept the right one quoted.
This doesn't make sense to me. Russia has its own oil. LOTS of it, and this convoy is pretty much just leaving Russia to enter their neighbor. This would be like Cleveland attacking Chicago by going down I-90.

So, either this is pure BS, or somebody is deliberately hindering the Russian logistics from the inside... which would still be very surprising.

Never waste a perfectly good crisis, even if it isn't yours.
There's no reason those agencies can't get their job done on a budget from ten years ago.... except with the way government budgeting works, they all want more than they had the year before, and if they don't spend every penny they got his year, they won't get even that much next year.

I think it may be a matter of logistics more than anything. Sure Russia has oil. Kyiv isn't very close to Russia and those tanks take a lot of fuel. How much fuel do you think the convoy left Russia with? They may have planned for this to go much quicker than it has and not have enough reserve fuel on hand.

That’s the damn truth… we award wastefulness and punish thriftiness.

I always use this comparison: you have two kids that go on separate road trips (same distance and expenses).

Kid 1: “Hey Dad, I know you gave me $200 for gas on the trip but I only spent $150! Here’s your money back.”

Dad: Great! Next time I’ll only give you $150.

Kid 2: “Hey Dad, I know you gave me $200, but I had to buy a hood ornament along the way because Mom told me to, even though I didn’t want one. It still cost me only $175, total. So I spent the rest of the time driving around the neighborhood until the tank was on E, so then I used the rest of the $25 to make sure I spent it on everything.”

Dad: That’s unfortunate. Next time I’ll give you $250 to make sure you have enough.

I can’t speak to the veracity of the reports, but I will say, if true, that’s not going to get any better when they face urban warfare.

j/c

A thought I've had: Russia had some 190,000 troops amassed prior to the invasion.

We don't know how many they used in the first days, but reports are now they've sent 80% in, probably because Ukraine was holding up much better than the russians thought they would.

Putin keeps escalating.

I feel he won't stop. Bombings are becoming more numerous, yet still no break throughs. If this 40 mile convoy of vehicles/troops/tanks, etc, get stymied, I don't see putin stopping, I see him escalating even more, despite the fact that basically all the players in the world are against him (other than belarus, north korea, and 1 other I don't recall). China is not supporting this from what I've seen/heard.

I shudder to think what putin is willing and capable of doing, and the effect it will have on the world as a whole, Ukraine in particular.

im telling you bro, dude definitely has that "if i cant have it, no one will" vibe right now.

Need to go OLD school, Putin vs Zelenskyy 1 on 1. Fight with honor.

Putin is only 5'6. He has short man syndrome.

but he's KBG so there's probably a shank in his tie or something.

Actually, since he’s honing in on Kiev, I’d prefer he go 1 on 1 with the mayor of Kiev instead.

I share that sentiment, arch. My hope is that - if the column does get stymied - that his domestic/internal support unravels. That might also make him more dangerous though.

If, IF what we are reading/hearing that:

Tanks, vehicles, transports running out of fuel.

Food running out.

Russian soldiers sabotaging their own equipment....

Etc.

Putin has an ego unrivaled by anyone currently............I can't see him, as it stands (without a multi nation defensive and offensive attack) I can't see him backing down. And I doubt many in the russian gov't. would stand up to him.

I don't understand it all.

Dude's worth an estimated $200 billion. He's 69 or 70. He doesn't have decades left (especially with what's going on now.....)

I mean, how much power, how much money, does he need or want? He won't be around to see his legacy, and probably wouldn't want to be around because it won't be a good one.

Most of any military convoy is logistics vehicles. Of that 40-mile stretch, probably only 4 miles worth is combat vehicles (tanks, troops transports, etc). The rest would be fuel haulers and trucks with food & ammo. Think in terms of the Red Ball Express.
Basic Warfare 101 is your supply & logistics. No army, ever, since Napoleon, goes into battle without STRONGLY making sure they are supplied.... ESPECIALLY making sure you don't run out of supplies in the first 5 stinking days.

Again, this is either the absolute DUMBEST invasion EVER, the reports are bogus, or there is a bunch of internal disruption (potentially sabotaging).



I mean, for the primary assault column to bog down on lack of food and fuel AT THE FREAKING KICK-OFF would be like the Allies invading Normandy, but leaving everything back in port in England. It makes no sense at all; not this early in a campaign.

I wonder if intelligence knows Putin’s exact location.

thats what happens when men believe they are entitled to buy, invade, or destroy anything and everything they want. that unlimited ambition, keep it going til you drop mentality.

the strongest men in the world are those capable of self-restraint. unlimited power and control only leads to self destruction. i'm guessing power is even more addicting once you're facing your own mortality and legacy.

pretty sad way to go.

I'm wondering if there aren't some oligarchs/military higher-ups with real concerns and access to some polonium. He could be taken out by some Russian who doesn't want to see the world glowing green.

Putin has his list of demands to call off the entire invasion.
He is threatening but holding back.
He is currently sweating the entire world, waiting for those demands to be agreed to.
He laid waste to the second largest city as a warning.
I don't think he wants to lay waste to Kiev as it is the city Nikita Khrushchev built.
He waits.

That's my guess.

Are you suggesting the world give him what he wants?
That worked really well for Chamberlin

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...reign-currency-01646176225?siteid=yhoof2


Putin signs decree to prohibit leaving Russia with more than $10,000 in foreign currency
Published: March 1, 2022 at 6:10 p.m. ET
By Associated Press

The move comes in response to the sanctions the U.S. and allies have imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, which this week tanked the ruble and sent Russians flocking to banks and ATMs

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree that prohibits taking more than $10,000 worth of foreign currency in cash and “monetary instruments” out of Russia.

The move comes in response to the crippling sanctions Western nations have imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, which this week tanked the ruble RUBUSD, 0.90 and sent Russians flocking to banks and ATM in fear for the fate of their savings.

Developing: Apple pauses sales in Russia, adding to its other actions related to Ukraine invasion

Other measures Putin ordered this week included obligating Russian exporters to sell 80% of their revenues in foreign currency, prohibiting Russian residents from providing nonresidents with foreign currency under loan agreements and from depositing foreign currency into foreign bank accounts.

Belarusian president displays map suggesting Putin plans to attack Moldova

Grayson Quay, Weekend editor
Tue, March 1, 2022, 5:23 PM·1 min read

Russia may be planning aggressive moves against the Republic of Moldova, according to a map Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko displayed during a meeting of his country's security council.

Lukashenko is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He seemingly allowed Putin to use Belarus as a staging ground for his invasion of Ukraine and is reportedly planning to commit his own country's troops to the conflict.

The map, which Financial Times Moscow bureau chief Max Seddon shared on Twitter, shows Ukraine split into its four operational command districts and features red arrows that appear to indicate planned troop movements.

One of those arrows originates in the southern Ukrainian port city of Odessa, which Russian troops have not yet reached, and terminates on the other side of the Moldovan border.


In January, Ukrainian intelligence warned that Russia could initiate false flag operations in Moldova to justify intervening in the pro-Russian separatist-controlled region of Transnistria, according to Al Jazeera.

Transnistria, a narrow strip of land with around 400,000 inhabitants, is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, but the Moldovan government has exercised no authority over the breakaway republic since 1992. Russian troops have been stationed in Transnistria ever since.

In 2014, after Putin seized control of Crimea, the head of Transnistria's parliament requested to join Russia, BBC reported at the time.




https://www.yahoo.com/news/belarusian-president-displays-map-suggesting-222320415.html

You got that from what I said?
Hmmmm...