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Swish #1928935 03/09/22 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Swish
damn you know what kind of plays Stefanski can design and call with Willis? His physical style of play actually allows Stefanski to call more exotic plays just too keep the clock going. And his deep ball is gorgeous!!!!


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Nope. Thanks for enlightening me


“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

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“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

- Theodore Roosevelt
Swish #1929034 03/10/22 06:25 AM
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Cowherd is something.

Does not even mention a thing about Willis's experience or lack of it.

Knows nothing about Liberty's offense.

And he would draft him five. Good thing he has never worn a GM's hat.

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Originally Posted by bonefish
Cowherd is something.
.
A Tool.


The more things change the more they stay the same.
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I don't mind Cowherd. I think Browns fans don't like him because of his take on Baker. I like Baker, but right now, Cowherd is looking more right than wrong.

Willis looks pretty dynamic to me. I'd take him based on a admittedly small sample size. In football guys are expected to step right in....fair or unfair. I think football is starting to project players more as the do in basketball and more specifically, baseball. If Willis was a pitcher and still hitting 100MPH in the 7th inning of his games, be it HS or college, control or not, you can bet your butt he would be drafted inside the first 5 picks of the baseball draft.

I do understand that in baseball there is a mechanism to give the guy play time without actually playing big league games, but even then they don't stay there long.


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Originally Posted by bonefish
Cowherd is something.

Does not even mention a thing about Willis's experience or lack of it.

Knows nothing about Liberty's offense.

And he would draft him five. Good thing he has never worn a GM's hat.


The only hat Cowherd wears is a asshat.


I AM ALWAYS RIGHT... except when I am wrong.
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“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

- Theodore Roosevelt
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one thing with projecting a guy like this is obviously the talent level. but not just the talent he's competing against, its also the talent he's playing with.

so far i've gone through highlights and lowlights. one recurring issue is how quickly his line falls apart. that has a huge effect on any QB, and if it persist will cause the QB to not trust the pocket. he has a lot of Josh Allen/Watson/mahomes IN REGARDS to his confidence in his arm. so a lot of the times he just trust his arm too much to make a throw into any window. while thats a gift and curse, the undeniable positive is that he isn't afraid to risk it. one thing a QB can't do is be scared to throw the ball.

his presence on the field shows that he plays a lot bigger than 6'1. he's clearly athletic and built, so in a Stefanski style offense, the risk of injury is low even with him tucking and running more than normal. his biggest flaws when it comes to passing are also the easiest to correct. this is Lamar jackson with a superior arm and accuracy. competition plays a roll, but Wentz - while ok - went to a small school. so did Allen. Trey lance just got drafted 3rd overall, and he has less tape than Willis.

he instantly boost our ability to control the clock with a dominant run game. i think keeping hooper will provide him with 3 big targets to throw to at TE, making Hooper and Chief his go-to targets almost instantly. we need a big body WR for him, but we needed one anyway. and because injuries on the line always happen, he's more capable of escaping pressure and keeping plays open.

he needs time in an ideal scenario. however, because he's a dual threat, a stacked box because of him, Chubb, and D'Ernest would provide more 1 on 1 opportunities, where he as shown to be absolutely lethal exploiting those situations.


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“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

- Theodore Roosevelt
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After Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and even Carson Wentz. I think it proved that physical skillsets are more important than ever at QB. Impossible to know just how athletic this guy actually is unless you get him in your facility.

Hate it when hype guys don't/can't do the combine.

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I am not on the Malik Willis bandwagon. Freak athlete from small school with low college completion %? Wowing scouts after the season is over? Sounds a lot like Josh Allen ... and Josh Allen managed to do what (overwhelmingly) most college QB's don't do in the NFL which is become more accurate. Some of the highlights are impressive.... but I checked out his game log stats as well as watched the highlight reel stuff - they are underwhelming. I don't know how good or bad the rest of his cast around him were - but I'd pass on him. And I hope he is taken before we pick at 13 so that it gives us another option that drops to us.


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at best, he is a smaller version of Justin Fields.

as for the completion percentage/accuracy argument - I disagree. They can improve once they reach the pros.

Under 60% in college:

1. Brett Favre
2. Dan Marino
3. Russell Wilson @ NC State
4. Matt Stafford
5. Josh Allen
6. John Elway 2 seasons
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Carson Palmer

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To be fair, Willis impressed people way before this off-season. He was always mentioned as a potential first round pick.

mgh888 #1929088 03/10/22 12:06 PM
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There are two ingredients to the success of Willis.

Have a plan for him. And have patience with the plan.

Watch the Liberty offense. The passing scheme was simplistic. One schemed throw to make. If the guy was not open create with your legs. He was a superior athlete on the field. He could win that way. See it open. Then throw it. If not take off and get gains.

He was not asked to throw from a pocket. There was not 2 to 4 routes being run where he had find the open guy.
He did not have to worry about reading the defense while avoiding pressure.

He did not have to throw with anticipation and throw guys open. He was rarely throwing into tight windows.

The competition he faced was a long way from the SEC where you are not always the best athlete on the field.

The Plan. Bring him in behind a starter. Let him sit and learn. As you develop him you bring in players to fit the scheme you will evolve to.
Like the Ravens your scheme is built into his skills.

He is a better passer than Lamar was. But Willis still must develop pocket skills. How to move in a pocket and keep eyes on the routes.

How to begin to recognize NFL defenses. Develop chemistry with the team and receivers. Develop ball placement in a NFL route trees where you see combination routes in space. You can not always roll out and take half the field away.

Willis will learn running away from Liberty competitors is not like NFL speed.

Patience. He is going to look bad at times. He will turn it over. He will have games like Fields against the Browns. You have to keep to the plan.

For those who think he can come in a save the day. Be ready to wait for that day. It will come but it will take time.

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Originally Posted by bonefish
...

He was not asked to throw from a pocket. There was not 2 to 4 routes being run where he had find the open guy.
He did not have to worry about reading the defense while avoiding pressure.

He did not have to throw with anticipation and throw guys open. He was rarely throwing into tight windows.

...

These are the things behind Baker's biggest criticisms over the years. If what you're saying is true, why would be flush a 1st down the toilet just to sign ourselves up for the same weaknesses (except this time, it would be on a player with even less of a resume than Baker).?


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Baker was way ahead of where Willis is now.

But Willis has more upside because of what he can do with his mobility.

At the same time like I stated. He has to be developed.

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Originally Posted by Hammer
at best, he is a smaller version of Justin Fields.

as for the completion percentage/accuracy argument - I disagree. They can improve once they reach the pros.

Under 60% in college:

1. Brett Favre
2. Dan Marino
3. Russell Wilson @ NC State
4. Matt Stafford
5. Josh Allen
6. John Elway 2 seasons
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Carson Palmer

You picked 8 guys spanning nearly 40 years. I guess there are some others too - but that's not a large sample size. And even then I don't know that these players disprove my point?

Brett Favre NFL career - 61.9%. --- NFL career 62%
Russell Wilson final college year he was 72% --- NFL Career 65%
Elway had 2 season at 64% and 65% in college. --- NFL 56.9%
McNabb - not great, but had 2 seasons at 61.7 and 62.5% --- NFL 59% career.
Palmer final season 63.2% ---- NFL 62.5% career.


The more things change the more they stay the same.
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Originally Posted by Hammer
at best, he is a smaller version of Justin Fields.

as for the completion percentage/accuracy argument - I disagree. They can improve once they reach the pros.

Under 60% in college:

1. Brett Favre
2. Dan Marino
3. Russell Wilson @ NC State
4. Matt Stafford
5. Josh Allen
6. John Elway 2 seasons
7. Donovan McNabb
8. Carson Palmer

I don’t understand how completion percentage = accuracy.

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How do you measure accuracy? Is it quantifiable? Please enlighten.

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lets say stefanski's overall conservative game plan continues, who has a better chance of thriving in that system? Willis or Baker? Stefanski seems to be a control freak with the play calling, and Baker doesn't have enough say so on the field as he should.

Willis allows Stefanski to mold a QB from scratch. Stefanski already doesn't trust Baker, and it's not like we don't see teams draft a QB in the 1st round somewhat regularly even if there's an OK starter on the team.

i think Baker is still the undisputed starter week 1 even if we draft Willis at #13. there's so many different ways it could ignite Baker and this team in a positive way. and if he self destructs, it proves he wasn't the guy. i dont think we should trade up for him, but if Berry decided to move up a couple spots, that's fine. let's be real, Baker hasn't proved he can be the franchise QB. since that's an unknown, it makes since to draft a QB in the 1st round because at least the unknown has a higher ceiling.

i really wanted a WR or DT at 13. but if Berry decides that Willis is worth the cost, i'll be excited too. Baker can be a good QB, but for whatever reason, i don't see him and Stefanski being a natural fit.


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Originally Posted by cfrs15
I don’t understand how completion percentage = accuracy.

You don't understand why people use completion % as a way to correlate a QB's accuracy? Or you want to try and split hairs about the only meaningful data that is available because it is not perfect? And given some of those QB's listed and the correlation between College completion % and NFL completion ... what would you suggest we use as a metric for accuracy in light of the fact none of us will have watched every throw a QB has made.


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Originally Posted by Hammer
How do you measure accuracy? Is it quantifiable? Please enlighten.

This is helpful... click the top of category OnTgt%... under the Accuracy tab.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm


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Originally Posted by FATE
Originally Posted by Hammer
How do you measure accuracy? Is it quantifiable? Please enlighten.

This is helpful... click the top of category OnTgt%... under the Accuracy tab.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing_advanced.htm

That’s one way.

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Some names pop up in some surprising spots (Garrapolo, Goff, Tua... and then Lamar, Allen, TB12)


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Originally Posted by mgh888
Originally Posted by cfrs15
I don’t understand how completion percentage = accuracy.

You don't understand why people use completion % as a way to correlate a QB's accuracy? Or you want to try and split hairs about the only meaningful data that is available because it is not perfect? And given some of those QB's listed and the correlation between College completion % and NFL completion ... what would you suggest we use as a metric for accuracy in light of the fact none of us will have watched every throw a QB has made.

I understand why people use it. I also know a lot of completion percentage is related to what offense you are running in college. Of course a screen heavy offense is going to produce high completion percentages. Does it tell us much about the QB? Not really.

As far as metrics we can use today as people who can’t watch every throw? The easiest answer is to read/watch people who have watched every throw. PFF (which costs money) and Pro Football Reference have stats charted from people who watch every game. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is a big one people use nowadays.

If completion percentage is an accurate representation of accuracy then we have a lot to worry about with Baker Mayfield as his as cratered in the NFL.

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Originally Posted by oobernoober
Some names pop up in some surprising spots (Garrapolo, Goff, Tua... and then Lamar, Allen, TB12)

Those names make sense. Garoppolo, Goff, and Tua have a ton of schemed open receivers that are easy reads and easy throws. The other guys are good.

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Originally Posted by cfrs15
Originally Posted by oobernoober
Some names pop up in some surprising spots (Garrapolo, Goff, Tua... and then Lamar, Allen, TB12)

Those names make sense. Garoppolo, Goff, and Tua have a ton of schemed open receivers that are easy reads and easy throws. The other guys are good.

The other guys are 28th, 24th and 23rd. Something doesn't make sense.


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Also, to add to your point of "scheme", the fact that Jimmy G also leads the league in YAC per completion speaks volumes for engineering an offense around his strengths... on time on target. Too bad he makes so many stupid mistakes when it matters the most.


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Originally Posted by FATE
Originally Posted by cfrs15
Originally Posted by oobernoober
Some names pop up in some surprising spots (Garrapolo, Goff, Tua... and then Lamar, Allen, TB12)

Those names make sense. Garoppolo, Goff, and Tua have a ton of schemed open receivers that are easy reads and easy throws. The other guys are good.

The other guys are 28th, 24th and 23rd. Something doesn't make sense.

I read his post wrong that’s my bad.

Allen and Brady threw down field quite a bit last year.

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Yep. Brady and Allen are #1 and 2 in Intended Air Yards... Brady approaching 6000.


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Originally Posted by FATE
Yep. Brady and Allen are #1 and 2 in Intended Air Yards... Brady approaching 6000.

Look at me making factual statements without looking at the actual stats!

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So, while we're riffing... If we look at Intended Air Yards Per Attempt, we see Baker Mayfield at #5... ahead of Brady and Allen.

So, is that because he doesn't see "schemed open receivers that are easy reads and easy throws" or because we don't "scheme" that well enough? Both?


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Originally Posted by FATE
So, is that because he doesn't see "schemed open receivers that are easy reads and easy throws" or because we don't "scheme" that well enough? Both?

You tell me. poke tongue (this was a sack)

Also, I believe cfrs had posted the stat before about how the Browns had the second most plays with 3 open WRs.

I also remember Baker throwing into double or triple coverage to DPJ resulting in an INT against the Packers when Higgins was coming across underneath for what would've been a ~35 yard gain.

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To me, he's Lamar Jackson, but less elusive and takes a ton more big hits. I'm not sure Lamar Jackson works if those two things were the case.

Willis could work out great. Or he could go the way of Jake Locker/RGIII.

I almost want to say he kind of reminds me of Josh McCown. Has talent, but inconsistent. Tries to do too much and gets obliterated fairly frequently. Nice guy. Guy you want on your team, but probably can't actually rely on to be "The Guy" on your team.

I don't think he'd work well here. With all the hype and where we'd likely have to take him if he even lasts that long, this fan base probably wouldn't be patient enough to wait until he's ready. I'm not sure I'd want factions forming in the locker room and fans clamoring for the backup.

He could be good, but he'll probably not end up in the best situation.


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Is this the "double or triple coverage" you were talking about? Because that was a perfect throw that likely would have ended up winning the game for us. 4th Q comeback even.


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That is not the throw.

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Hammer the game has changed in a small period of time making it almost impossible to compare via completion %

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