DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus War in Ukraine

If Israel is hindering our efforts to help the Ukranians, they could use a dose of sanctions.

No arguments from this corner.


We could be like Oprah all over the world: "YOU get some sanctions, YOU get some sanctions..."

j/c…

Question for people who know about farming on here (because I certainly don't): If the US made funds available to prop up the price of wheat and corn for this year -- is it too late for more crops to go into the fields for this season (say, in the midwest and plains)?

That's a good question that I don't know the full answer to.

However... Biden has toyed with finishing what Trump started and should follow through -- ending mandates for ethanol production -- it least chop it in half to about 7.5 billion gallons.

If there is going to be a grain shortage, and our fuel supply is going to be FUBAR anyway, no sense (never was any) in growing corn to shove in our tanks when people need to eat.

Good question. Some things to ponder, and I don't have the answer.

1. CRP ground. Fields the gov't. pays the owners to NOT grow crops on. Can farm owners that have ground in that program opt out easily?

2 There are limits as to how much crop you can get out of an acre. Meaning, you can't just plant more on each acre. You need more acreage to farm on.

3. Farmers can, to a large extent, determine WHAT they plant. It's a gamble every year, really. Looking at futures, guessing, hedging,, and hoping, really.

4 For many farmers, maybe most, they sign contracts with elevators/grain handling facilities where in they agree to sell X number of bushels to that facility at a predetermined price. If the price drops, they still get the contract price (good). If the price at harvest has gone up, they still have to sell at the contract price (ok, but not as good) Most farmers hold back a percentage to - well, take a chance, for lack of a better term, on prices being higher.

Just things to think about.

Winter wheat gets planted in the fall. Not sure when summer wheat goes in the ground, but assume late spring.

yo has GMOs affected yields in a positive or negative way?

Actually planting corn doesn't usually begin until early April. I don't know if that would be enough time to make the correction you're speaking of however.

This is the major one I was thinking about - but I wasn't sure how it worked. If you paid people to farm on those acres, instead of not farming on them -- would people still be able to plant crops there this year?

I didn't know about winter wheat, for example - where it sounds like you can't really do anything. But corn seems promising (but maybe the land would have already had to be tilled, etc. by now).

Anyway, just a thought - since part of the aid to Ukraine and the Eastern Europe could certainly be grains that are shipped to help offset food shortages there -- and in this way US farmers benefit as well.

I would have to guess in a positive way concerning production.

Another point I failed to make: Most farmers have already contracted for and bought the seed for this year by now.


On a side note: on youtube, there's a guy, Zach Johnson - has a channel called "millennial farmer". He's a millennial. Funny guy, many of his vid's are humorous, many are informative about a side of farming many people don't understand. He's apparently quite a large farm operation as well. If anyone is interested, you can see and learn a lot. Some of the vid's are a little long, but you can lose yourself for hours, if interested in that type of thing and all that goes into farming - the technology, the planning, the hoping, the contracting, the expenses, etc. And like I said, many of them are just funny things about what can and does happen on a farm.

Everybody is ignoring the other side of this equation, there will be a glut of goods that Russia normally buys too. I wonder if some prices will go down due to that? Or if it will cost jobs? idk, but something has to happen to the goods not being sent to them. But I can't imagine that won't have some effects on the rest of the world.

Actually crude prices dropped by 5% last week as gas prices continued to rise at the pump.

Exports

Russia was the United States' 40th largest goods export market in 2019.

U.S. goods exports to Russia in 2018 were $5.8 billion, down 13.1% ($874 million) from 2018 but up 8.5% from 2009..

The top export categories (2-digit HS) in 2019 were: machinery ($1.2 billion), aircraft ($1.2 billion), vehicles ($725 million), optical and medical instruments ($506 million), and electrical machinery ($349 million).

U.S. total exports of agricultural products to Russia totaled $193 million in 2019. Leading domestic export categories include: prepared food ($42 million), planting seeds ($20 million), tobacco ($15 million), feeds & fodders not elsewhere specified or indicated ($11 million), and live animals ($9 million).

U.S. exports of services to Russia were an estimated $5.1 billion in 2019, 4.8% ($237 million) more than 2018, and 7.7% greater than 2009 levels. Leading services exports from the U.S. to Russia were in the financial services, travel, and intellectual property (trademarks) sectors.


​Imports

Russia was the United States' 20th largest supplier of goods imports in 2019.

U.S. goods imports from Russia totaled $22.3 billion in 2019, up 6.8% ($1.4 billion) from 2018, and up 22.3% from 2009.

The top import categories (2-digit HS) in 2019 were: mineral fuels ($13 billion), precious metal and stone (platinum) ($2.2 billion), iron and steel ($1.4 billion), fertilizers ($963 million), and inorganic chemicals ($763 million).

U.S. total imports of agricultural products from Russia totaled $69 million in 2019. Leading categories include: snack foods ($8 million), tree nuts ($6 million), other vegetable oils ($3 million), essential oils ($3 million), and other dairy products ($2 million).

U.S. imports of services from Russia were an estimated $1.8 billion in 2019, 2.2% ($38 million) more than 2018, and 50.6% less than 2009 levels. Leading services imports from Russia to the U.S. were in the transportation, travel, and financial services sectors.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia-and-eurasia/russia#:~:text=The%20top%20import%20categories%20(2,inorganic%20chemicals%20(%24763%20million).

I know their economy is small, but 145 million Russians have to have a global impact when they are cut off from goods imported from around the world. Those losses or products have to be absorbed elsewhere in the global economy.

Hey Swish, what will 200 Million get them? Doesn't sound like much.

Wow, the Pro-Putin party now wants to say Biden is in bed with Putin? LMAO, you can't make this crap up. NUTS.



Lindsey Graham is hilarious. Have there ever been a more spineless political creatures than Lindsey Graham or Ted Cruz? These two will take any position they think makes them look good to the base. smdh.

Ah, the old trump line, "Some people have told me". I guess they all of a sudden forgot it was trump who said that putin was telling the truth while our intelligence community was wrong. Obviously those idoiots understand there are still fools out there who will believe them. Murica!

depends on the equipment. if we're talking from a defensive strategy, than 100 million in weapons is a nice boost. the kind of equipment will be key. you can get quality AA weapons in bulk for the cheap. combine that with ammo and rifles, and they're good. hopefully the equipment will be IBAs or IOTVs (body armor with plates), night vision, comms, etc. but that's a good chunk of cash for the ukrainian military.

we have to remember that 200 million doesn't sound like much from our perspective. but 200 million in ukraine/EE might as well mean the military won the lottery.

I don't see them getting drones capable of taking out tanks, anti-air missile/gun systems, or any/many military vehicles. IMO $200 Mill in small arms/ammo, MREs, body armor, night vision etc., is great and all, but not sure that it's the help they need.

Keep in mind they are also getting weapons from other countries as well.

I think you must consider that this is just in addition to what we and other nations have already contributed to their military arsenal. Requesting a united front on behalf of all NATO countires helps show a front of unity.

My problem with sanctions is that they wreck everyday people who want nothing to do with the people the sanctions are supposed to be condemning. The people doing the wretched things are usually rich and largely unaffected in their daily lives by sanctions. Meanwhile, people already dealing with a lousy situation with a repressive regime are now going to have an even harder time affording many everyday items.

I know politicians are pushing the good PR story of we're punishing Putin, but they're really punishing innocent people to distract from problems here (and Blaming Putin for those, too.) They needed good PR.

Who cares about the effect on actual people when there's a good story to tell?

But that's the way of the world, tell stories, gloss over anything that doesn't agree with one's preferred narrative. Make yourself look/feel better.

I know it is just part of the world aid arch and Pit. But they made it sound like they were sending equipment, I just wondered what they would be sending for that amount.

One fifth of an F16 wing.

I think in large part you're speaking about two different things. Yet in some instances I agree with you. Freezing the assets of Russian oligarchs, seizing their yachts properties and refusing to do banking with them hurt their rich much more than it could ever hurt their poor. As far as refusing to import their oil I think it's far more of a symbolic gesture that hits the poor the hardest. It's very hard for me to generalize and lump them all together into a one size fits all category.

While I still have no clue how much equipment it will provide it would be a lot more Soviet stye equipment than it would be American equipment. They pay a fraction to manufacture their equipment than we do.

I was buying Russian made SKS-AK's back when Clinton was president for about $100 when similar American made rifles were running in the $300 range.

This is an excerpt from a story on Feb 26 where Blinken announces $350 million in aid to Ukraine-our third weapons shipment to Ukraine-this would make it our fourth for about 1.25 billion dollars.


In a memorandum to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Biden directed that $350 million allocated through the Foreign Assistance Act be designated for Ukraine's defense.

Ukraine has been asking for Javelin anti-tank weapons and Stinger missiles to shoot down aircraft.

On Saturday, Blinken said in a statement that this third authorization for weapons shipments to Ukraine was "unprecedented."

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-approves-350-million-military-aid-ukraine-2022-02-26/

You are right. Sanctions hurt the general population.

What's your alternative?

wait... what? That's not how that works.

1. we are not giving them money
2. we are giving them up to 200 million US dollars worth of military training or equipment.
3. The value is based on the US Dollar, not Ukraine's Hryvnia.
IE: If we send 10 Javeline missiles (valued at 1 million USD) it doesn't all of a sudden become 300 Javeline missiles because they entered Ukraine.
*1USD is the same as 30 Hryvnia

Spring wheat should be just starting to be planted... so theoretically you could plant more if needed if you also have the fields ready for it. I'm not as familiar with corn

Restrict things to specific individuals instead of entire countries. Quit making broad strokes decisions in response to specific situations. Quit using a symbolic grand gesture (or bill title/headline) to hide a bunch of awfulness.

imma give you a chance to reread my response. real carefully this time. i did not even imply that we were giving them cash. i know exactly how it works.

That might sound good if you gave me some examples, and I am specifically thinking of Russia, Ukraine and Putin.

25-30 years ago, I did a lot of hunting in your neck of the woods (Williams and Defiance counties), and there was an awful lot of CRP land. My friend got these plat books that showed where these uncultivated areas were and who the landowners were. If I remember right, the landowners had to allow public hunting on a certain percentage of that land. I wonder if all that land is still unused?

I don't have an answer for you.

I know I got booted from some 200 acres of field and woods because the land got gifted to grandson and son. He lives in Arizona. His dad used to allow me, his grandma used to allow me. In fact, his dad even ASKED me to hunt woodchucks there, as they can destroy/eat large amounts of soy beans.

This guys uncle, that farms it, and his brother in law, both said "Oh, he'd be stupid if he didn't let you out there." They both got back to me after talking with him and said "he's stupid. Said you can't."

How CRP works exactly, as far as taking ground out of the program, I don't know. How it works with allowing a percentage of ground to be public hunting, I do not know.

So, now Iran has sent missiles into Iraq near a u.s. consulate?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/missiles-target-us-consulate-north-001956123.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...officials-say/ar-AAV0LDf?ocid=uxbndlbing


Russia has turned to China for military equipment and aid in the weeks since it began its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, did not describe what kind of weaponry had been requested, or whether they know how China responded.


The development comes as White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan plans to travel to Rome on Monday to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi.

“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions, evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them,” Sullivan told CNN.

A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, Liu Pengyu, said he was not aware of any such request for assistance. “I’ve never heard of that,” he said in an email to The Washington Post.

“China is deeply concerned and grieved on [the] Ukraine situation,” he said. “We support and encourage all efforts that are conducive to a peaceful settlement of the crisis. The high priority now is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or even getting out of control.”

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, speaking Sunday in a television interview, noted that part of Moscow’s gold and foreign exchange reserves were in Chinese currency, Reuters reported. “And we see what pressure is being exerted by Western countries on China in order to limit mutual trade.”

“But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing.”


While Sullivan, who spoke on several Sunday talk shows, focused his remarks on economic aid and sanctions evasion, the officials said that Russia is running low on certain types of weapons. They declined to specify which kinds.

“If Beijing is offering any type of military assistance to aid Moscow’s war in Ukraine, the spillover effects on U.S.-China policy could be vast,” said Eric Sayers, a former adviser to the U.S. Indo Pacific Command and now senior vice president at Beacon Global Strategies.

“It would abruptly end debate about pathways to working with Beijing. More importantly, it would push Washington to accelerate retaliatory and decoupling actions toward China, and create new pressure on companies now doing business in China,” Sayers said.

China buys certain weapons from Russia, especially advanced fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missile systems, said Taylor Fravel, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Chinese defense.

“As far as I know, China does not sell any weapons systems to Russia,” Fravel said. “In other words, Russia has enabled China’s military modernization but China so far has not contributed much to the development of Russia’s armed forces, apart from the profits of Russian weapons sales, which can be reinvested to improve Russian capabilities.”

China has sought to balance political support for Russia, including blaming the United States and NATO expansion for the war, with upholding principles such as sovereignty and territorial integrity, Fravel noted. So if China provides “direct material support” to Russia’s war effort, he said, “it would be a watershed moment.”

Michael Kofman, director of the Russia studies program at the Virginia-based nonprofit analysis group CNA, said Russia’s request, of which he had no independent knowledge, appears to reflect the fact that “this war is costly and over time will prove exhausting for the Russian military.”

On the day Russian troops entered Ukraine, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said Beijing would not send arms to Russia, taking a jab at U.S. efforts to muster military support for Ukraine. “There’s a difference in methods between China and the U.S. on this issue. … I think Russia, as a powerful country, does not need China or other countries to provide it with weapons,” Hua Chunying said at a news briefing.

Moscow’s apparent turn to Beijing comes as senior U.S. intelligence officials last week described to Congress how Russia and China were more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s.

“It continues to be the case that they are getting closer together,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Tuesday, testifying before the House Intelligence Committee. “I think there’s a limit to which it will go, but nevertheless, that remains a concern. In terms of the impact of the current crisis, I’d say that it’s not yet clear to me exactly how it will affect the trajectory of their relationship.”

During the same panel, CIA Director William J. Burns noted that the China-Russia partnership has strengthened in recent years. He added, however, that he thought Chinese President Xi Jinping “and the Chinese leadership are a little bit unsettled by what they’re seeing in Ukraine.”

China has also been cautiously watching how close the European Union and United States have been in lockstep on the Ukraine crisis. Chinese officials have “valued their relationship with Europe and valued what they believe to be their capacity to drive wedges between us and the Europeans,” Burns said.

I'm onboard with freezing assets of specific oligarchs.

I've been trying to come up with something beyond that to replace "sanctions." The concern is what can be done without igniting an already volatile situation and sending it nuclear.

I'm contemplating some sort of NATO Task Force to go in and apprehend war criminals (Putin and anyone else authorizing the targeting of hospitals.) I don't think we want to go the assassination route because we'd lose the veneer of legality. The question with the "world police" option is who would fill the power vacuum? Would we end up in another Middle East situation where we're stuck supporting ineffective regimes indefinitely? Would China stand by for anything like that? How do you get good leaders in place without being seen as meddling? or good leaders period? We can't seem to do that here at home. There's also the question of what would the response be if arrest attempts failed.

Effectively blowing up a national economy is disturbing. Not only are you increasing hardship for innocents in Russia, you're destabilizing the global economy. And what is it really doing to the people it's supposed to be targeting? Not much anything. Making them angry. Giving them something to entrench nationalists with-"Look at how those foreigners are starving your children."

I don't know if we could do anything more likely to create anti-western/anti-capitalist zealots. "Look at those wicked Americans. They think everything is about money. They don't care who gets hurt."

(Quotes are best read in the voice of Victor Drazen from 24, at least that's how they sounded in my head)

Another approach might be trying to find ways to empower everyday Russians who are fed up with Putin.

I don't know the answer. It just seems that blanket, large-scale, economy crippling sanctions are an especially inhumane one.