His struggles weeks 1-6 couldn't have had anything to do with the fact that Baker had a new HC and had to learn a new offense with hardly any real practice time due to Covid? No that makes to much sense.
Circumstances that explain a situation (such as you did there) will quickly be forgotten...especially by those with much "cred" to lose regarding their initial and present evaluations of Baker.
It's no different than than the 4th Q comeback BS. Defense, crucial drops, fumbles, confounding play-calling and outrageous non-calls all contribute to that "stat". Browns fans in general are more knowledgeable than others...and should know better.
There was other stuff too like the changing footwork and mechanics, the 3 bad weather games with wind gusts up to 55 mph.
The devil is in the details.
By every measure Watson should be a clear upgrade - but then he would be over 2/3 of the starting QB's in the NFL. That doesn't mean Baker is trash or that those that only ever came to the board to comment on him after bad games, and were silent after good games, were right.
Last edited by mgh888; 03/24/2208:44 AM.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
If the offense doesn't look different then we have to start questioning Stefanski. In 2020 the Texans were in shotgun 82% of the time. Watson has been under center only 24% of the time in his career. Last year Baker was under center 54% of the time. My guess is that we are in shotgun in a ton more going forward. How does that effect the running game?
For his career Nick Chubb has averaged 5.6 yards per carry from shotgun and 5.2 yards per carry from under center. I don't think it will have a huge effect on Chubb's production. What will have a huge effect on Chubb's production is that he will probably be running the ball a lot less. Chubb's efficiency will likely go through the roof, which is hard to believe because he's already among the most efficient running backs in the league. in 2021 Chubb faced an average of seven defenders in the box (the most in the league). With Watson at QB teams will have to have more players in coverage. Chubb might, no exaggeration, average six yards per carry in 2022.
With the team being heavily analytically orientated the coaching staff will know they have to pass more because of how talented Watson is. In 2022 passing is much more efficient than running. In 2020 with the Texans Watson averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt. We were the best rushing offense in 2021. We averaged 5.1 yards per carry.
The thing I think we will see Watson doing more of is play action. Watson has 175 play action pass attempts in his entire career. Baker had 89 play action passing attempts in 2021 while missing three games. On those sparse play action attempts Watson has been very good (9.4 yards per attempt). Baker averaged 9.5 yards on play action attempts in 2021.
Another aspect that I anticipate changing pretty significantly in 2022 is the RPO game. Baker had nine RPO attempts in 2021. In 2020 Watson had 56 RPO attempts (9.3 yards per attempt).
Our personnel groupings will also be interesting. In 2020 the Texans had three wide receivers on the field 64% of the time. Last year we only had three wide receivers on the field 45% of time.
So this is what I would conclude. More shotgun but not 82% of the time. Less handoffs to the running back and more passing attempts. Watson will do way more play action than ever before. A lot more RPOs. More receivers on the field.
Is the play action more effective out of shotgun or under center? Or a wash?
Is a roll out more effective shotgun or under center? Or a wash?
The reason I ask is that for a shorter QB dropping back from the LOS helps. I forget the numbers but I've seen the numbers that show for a 6ft QB to see over a 6'6" OL he needs one more step back.... Or whatever the numbers are... Maybe it was 2 steps and 6'7" or 6'5".... My guess is Brees and Wilson who are similar in height were out of shotgun much more than Baker in 2021. I'm trying to figure why we would buck that trend. What is the advantage? Add the injury, you'd think SG would be beneficial there too.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
I believe the thinking is that play action is more effective from under center because the defense has less time to react to the potential handoff. The running back is coming downhill at the exchange point and closer to the line of scrimmage. If you're going to stop that run from getting positive yardage, a LB has to trigger and go. From shotgun, the RB has less momentum built up and is farther from the line of scrimmage, so the LB can wait a bit longer before committing to the run and is less likely to get sucked up and open a void in coverage behind him.
Not sure about rollouts. Probably more of a wash.
I usually think of dropping back as what a QB does from under center so your wording threw me off there for a bit. You'd think the shotgun would be beneficial for protecting a QB, but to me our OL was better at run blocking, so the added threat of the run from play action under center could have been viewed as slowing down the pass rush. Also Baker seemed to drift back out of the pocket fairly frequently, and when you start further back an OL trying to catapult a rusher past the QB can instead send them into the QB. There might also be an element of while it easier for the QB to see, it's also easier for defenders to see the QB/exchange point.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
I get your breakdown and on the surface you have some valid points. In fact, what you put forth is exactly what you would expect the Browns to do with Watson in the fold - if he's in the fold - remains to be seen. IMHO though, you are completely ignoring Stefanski's trend and your expectation of having him totally changing his offensive philosophy is just wishful thinking. In 2018, Cousins was the 10th ranked QB in the NFL throwing for 4298 yds with 30 TD's and 10 ints. In 2019 with Diggs, Thielen, and Johnson at WR (better than what the Browns have for 2022) - Rudolph, Irv Smith and Conklin at TE (better than what the Browns have for 2022) - and a healthy Cook at RB, Stefanski in his first year as OC cut the passing game yardage by 17%, TD's by 4 and ints by 4. More importantly though, passing attempts by Cousins went from 576 in 2018 to 444 in 2019 - a reduction of 22.9%.
In 2018 passing yardage, Cousins was rated 10th and Watson was rated 11th. In 2019, Cousins was rated 16th and Watson 13th. Oh, just a side note - Baker Mayfield was rated 14th in 2019. The point is that as wishful as it might be thought that suddenly Stefanski is going to change the scheme he has run for 3 straight years of reducing the pass is wishful just thinking. IMHO, I expect Watson to struggle early due to the new system and adjusting to the scheme. Depending on the extent of those struggles I would expect Stefanski to push the offense more into his run first scheme and again not adjust to what the other teams are doing. I've watched Stefanski now for three years and he does not set his offense up to the skill sets of the players - they must play the scheme. As much as I will hate to see it - I expect pretty much the exact same offense he always runs no matter who is behind the center.
"You get what you pay for!" If KCC went out and made a blockbuster trade this off season for Derrick Henry because last year their run offense was suspect (which it was) and the feeling was the run game was what cost them the championship the last couple of years, the expectation would be that the Chiefs would run the ball now. The problem is that KCC has a head coach that has a history and a trend of being a pass first offense. Now to use Henry the way everyone expects him to be used, Mahomes would have to have hs passing attempts reduced by 23% in order for Henry to be used properly. Does anyone really believe that Andy Reid is going to take the ball out of Mahomes hand 23% of the time just because they traded for a top 5 running back? That he would change his offense so much because he acquired Henry?
Stefanski is just the opposite. His offense is ball control and is dependent on top 5 running back play. The problem with that scheme is that 1) skill sets are secondary to the scheme 2) the offense is predictable and vanilla 3) the offense is not built to play from behind. Just as I would be shocked to see Andy Reid take the ball out of Mahomes hand 23% of the time because they acquired Henry, I will also be shocked to see Stefanski take the ball out of Chubb and Hunt's hands 23% of the time because he acquired a top 5 QB. IMHO, he's not that type of coach where he adjusts to the skill set's he has on the field - hasn't done it in 3-years and I don't expect him to do it now.
"You get what you pay for!" The Browns bought a game control run first head coach that took one of the if not the highest paid QB's in the NFL in 2019 and cut his passing attempts by 23%. He came to Cleveland and took a former Heisman trophy winner who broke the NFL record for a rookie QB, on his 4th head coach in 3 years, that was expected to do everything that people are hoping Watson can now do and cut his passing attempts by 22% over a 2-year period. I expect the same fate awaits Watson.
One further point, the Browns traded for Cooper who has averaged more than 80 receptions per year in his 3 full seasons at Dallas. No player has ever reached that level in a Stefanski led offense (Diggs 63 in 2019, Landry 72 in 2020 - OBJ missed 9 games and Landry 52 in 2021). Unless the scheme is changed, the expectation should be that Watson and Cooper will not meet career averages.
If Stefanski runs the same offense he ran with Baker and Cousins with Watson then he should be fired.
well i guess that begs the question: if we insert Watson in 2021 browns, do we make the playoffs?
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
I don't think anyone would question Watsons ability.. He has special skills. As for fitting into Stefanskis Offense, I'm certain he will... Cosell I think calls it correctly.
But that's not the problem with Watson...
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe." Damanshot
One would have to believe that Watson would have won at least two or three more games.
Frankly, I don't get the KS trashing.
He has been a head coach two seasons. His first season he is coach of the year and we win a playoff game on the road against the Steelers.
I didn't hear anyone complaining about the offense.
Last year in my mind the season was an anomaly. Lots of bad things happened. KS played his part in that. But I see no reason to discredit him.
I am glad he is the head coach. I look forward to this season.
You can call an offense anything. What matters is if it wins games. When your running backs are Nick Chubb and Hunt. It would be foolish not to get them the ball. Especially when last year you are hamstrung by an injured quarterback. Saying he doesn't adjust to personnel is not true.
The quarterback room and the receiver room will be different this year. Hooper is gone(thank goodenss). We still have an excellent OL. We still have Chubb, Hunt, and D'earnest. Njoku IMO will see more touches.
I do not expect us to throw away the run game. Why would we?
I do expect to see us use different personnel groups and formations especially 11.
yea i dont get it either. i was frustrated with his inconsistent rhythm of play calling, but we had open receivers and easy plays that could've been made with a more accurate QB.
just looking at the 2021 schedule again, both steelers L, the first baltimore L, and the raiders L would've been won if watson was the QB. thats 4 games right there that would've made us 12-5. i'm not gonna be a homer and say he would've won the chiefs or chargers game, or the packers game even though it was close.
but those 4 games i mentioned are W's with average QB play. that right there would've been a division title and a home playoff game. and all the crap about KS wouldn't even be a discussion.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
If Stefanski runs the same offense he ran with Baker and Cousins with Watson then he should be fired.
I agree. However, the chance Stefanski runs the same offense he ran with Baker and Cousins is zero point zero.
Stefanski's comments yesterday down at the Oweners Meeting:
From Zac Jackson....
Stefanski acknowledged that there will be a transition period for the offense given Watson’s mobility and his ability to operate from the shotgun. Stefanski didn’t talk specifics but said the Browns coaches have already begun studying Watson’s past games and developing specific concepts that may have been successful in the past.
“I think (exactly what it looks like) remains to be seen, and I think that’s our job as coaches year in and year out as your roster evolves,” Stefanski said “You better evolve. You (can) have different running backs, different wide receivers, but certainly when you’re talking about the quarterback position, you better do what that player does best. And that’s what we want to do, ultimately. I had a lot of really good conversations with Deshaun from a football perspective with the coaches, and I think we have a good plan moving forward.”
I get that we have Watson, but we also still have Chubb. I hope that our run/pass and shotgun vs under center meets somewhere in the middle of what Watson is used to, and what we have done under KS.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
“I haven’t had a (full) offseason yet with players,” Stefanski said. “Year 1 was the (COVID-19) shutdown. Year 2, as you know, was a little bit different (most Browns offensive players did not attend voluntary workouts), so I’m looking forward to having a normal offseason.”
I thought it was a little interesting that Stefanski equates a 'normal' offseason as one where players show up to both mandatory and voluntary. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but it sounds like a dig at what the offense did last year.
Or maybe it's nothing. The Athletic is a great subscription.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
KS has been accused of poor play calling. Not sure that's the case.. Might he have called plays that he thought an injured Mayfield might make work? Isn't that possible.
Personally I am also glad he's here. But I do think the team overreacted to a bad season brought on for the most part by injures to key players.
We should/could be a juggernaut this year with Watson. As long as we get some receivers...
#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynahan
"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe." Damanshot
If Stefanski runs the same offense he ran with Baker and Cousins with Watson then he should be fired.
I agree. However, the chance Stefanski runs the same offense he ran with Baker and Cousins is zero point zero.
Stefanski's comments yesterday down at the Oweners Meeting:
From Zac Jackson....
Stefanski acknowledged that there will be a transition period for the offense given Watson’s mobility and his ability to operate from the shotgun. Stefanski didn’t talk specifics but said the Browns coaches have already begun studying Watson’s past games and developing specific concepts that may have been successful in the past.
“I think (exactly what it looks like) remains to be seen, and I think that’s our job as coaches year in and year out as your roster evolves,” Stefanski said “You better evolve. You (can) have different running backs, different wide receivers, but certainly when you’re talking about the quarterback position, you better do what that player does best. And that’s what we want to do, ultimately. I had a lot of really good conversations with Deshaun from a football perspective with the coaches, and I think we have a good plan moving forward.”
This was my point. Stefanski is too smart not to change.
If Stefanski runs the same offense he ran with Baker and Cousins with Watson then he should be fired.
With an injured Baker or pre injured Baker?
Yes.
Look... I was a Baker fan up until the end, but even Baker's potential ceiling isn't as high as what Watson is gonna bring to the O.
There is no level of sucking we haven't seen; in fact, I'm pretty sure we hold the patents on a few levels of sucking NOBODY had seen until the past few years.
That's really not what I'm saying. I think it would be hard for anyone to make a legitimate argument that Watson isn't an upgrade at the QB position from strictly a player aspect.
My position is that trying to point out that a coach was calling certain plays has nothing to do with a QB's injuries or limitations isn't a legitimate argument. One only needs to look at the difference in 3TE sets from 2020 to 2021 to see adjustments were made after Baker was injured. My comment was more about Stefanski being forced to use what he had to work with than any "set in stone" claims people are making.
His comments posted above already show he is planning to adapt the offense to Watson's skill set. A coach has to work with the players he's been given and the limitations that injuries dictate. One must also consider the limitations that those injuries on the OL played into all of this. You can't run an O that you lack the tools to execute.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
I'll play...if Baker didn't get hurt and OBJ wasn't a cancer...and the Hammer didn't muff the punt against the Chiefs...we would have won the Super Bowl.
I think Stefanski has a great scheme. I also think that there is some misinformation being given. It sounds true on the surface, but is leaving out key details that change the results substantially. I think that this incorrect information is being given to protect Baker and put the blame on others. People can cite stats from Minni, but they refuse to include some extenuating factors about the injuries to the receivers that year. And they are certainly ignoring how Zimmer mandated that the team stop passing the ball so much and rely more on running and the D. Deliberately making a man look incompetent when he is not is not a very nice trait.
With all due respect, a trend is a trend. I also find it very interesting that a defense for his coaching in 2021 is an injured WR group, offensive line injuries, RB's missing games, and poor QB play but when it comes to Baker none of those things had anything to do with his play not even considering he was playing injured and not to mention the subject play calling. Secondly, who the hell is responsible for setting the lineups for the games. It might be hindsight now but considering the struggles Mayfield was experiencing almost on a weekly basis, who is the person who has the responsibility for him playing? This constant BS that Baker said he was healthy and Baker was medically cleared to play has nothing to do with the decision to keep playing a freaking player that was on the field with multiple injuries and wasn't performing up to expectations. What the hell do the Browns have a head coach for if the players are going to decide whether they play or not.
The constant defense of Stefanski for his screw ups in 2021 and the placing of the season woes on a QB that he - the ultimate decision maker - gave the green light to play week after week when he knew the player was playing at less than 75% is disgusting. Now I get to read post after post bashing Mayfield for everything that went wrong in 2021 except for the weather in Cleveland while excuses run rampant for what Stefanski had to deal with and he'll be better in 2022. Hmmm, something that Mayfield is not getting an opportunity for since he was the fall guy. The ultimate decision maker bears no responsibility and obviously only carry's the job in title alone.
In this forum alone, there's constant posts about Stefanski winning coach of the year in 2020 and 2021 was full of problems and it's expected that the 2020 Stefanski will be back in 2022. Wow, and he didn't even have an injury that effected his coaching in 2021. Mayfield though, screw the fact he QB'd a team that was 1-31 when he arrived and led that team to a 2nd round playoff in 2020 in his 3rd year. Never mind that the last 3/4's of 2020, Mayfield was a top 5 QB in the league. In 2021, he regressed while playing 14 games with a serious injury that also caused numerous less serious injuries that effected his play but none of the other team issues had anything to do with Baker's performance or the ultimate decision maker not being held accountable for a single week of trotting a player out there that he knew was struggling because of injury and other team issues. Oh wait, Mayfield was the person making the decision whether he played or not - Teflon Stefanski doesn't decide who plays and bears no responsibility for anything that happened in 2021.
Well, now the Browns have their franchise QB. Everything is great now and the Browns are Super Bowl bound. That is of course being dependent on Teflon Stefanski changing his scheme. If he doesn't, don't worry, Stefanski and the fans will find someone else to blame but it won't be the ultimate decision maker - he's already chased away Diggs, OBJ and now Mayfield - who's next?
On a side note. I watched Browns games with a very close friend for over 30 years. He passed away three years ago. Quincy is younger but damn he reminds me of my friend. His takes. His voice even. So i listen to Quincy every day. It reminds me of discussions I used to have.
do we think schwartz is gonna be able to take a step forward this season? what about DPJ?
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
I think he can serve a role on the team. Great speed that can stretch the D and help open things up for other receivers who are more natural receivers. I think he went a round too high, but I don't hate the choice. I know he took a lot of grief on here [the Alternative Universe] about the pick, but man, that throw should never have been attempted. You don't lead a receiver into a crash course w/a free running defender that far downfield. I just think many fans miss out on the subtleties of the game. With that said, I think Schwartz might develop, but I see him more as a complimentary guy than anything else. Of course, I've been wrong many times.
Hey Fate..... I have a question for you. Did Schwartz contribute on Special Teams during the season? If so, how did he do?
Hope you don't mind me chiming in. Schwartz did not have any catches or run backs on special teams. He had 10 catches for 135 yds and 39 yds rushing with six carries. Might have something to do with his concussion. Wouldn't say he contributed on Special Teams.
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