DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum What area deserves our 1st pick?

Even though I believe the Pro Bowl is some what of a popularity contest I still believe that all the players that were voted in are above average talent in the NFL. I wanted to look at the few positions that I constantly hear for us to draft. Now I?m not trying to hide any agenda hear so I?ll come out and say who I want in the draft, Joe Thomas. Along with Offensive Line the other positions that I hear for us to draft are, Running back (Adrian Peterson), Quarterback (Troy Smith), Wide Receiver (Calvin Johnson) and Defensive Line (Alan Branch).

I took the Pro Bowl roster for each position and I looked up where each player at that position was drafted. Then I discarded the highest and lowest pick at each position and averaged the remaining players draft position to get a gauge on where some of the leagues top talent was being drafted.
*If a player was an UDFA then they were treated as being drafted after the last pick of the 7th round or 225. Also I should note I didn?t take into account for some drafts having extra picks between rounds but in the end it would only change the outcome by a % point so all my end #?s are +/- 1.

Offensive Tackles

Willie Anderson, CIN drafted 10th overall
Jonathan Ogden, BAL drafted 4th overall
Tarik Glenn, IND drafted 19th overall
Walter Jones, SEA drafted 6th overall
Chris Samuels, WAS drafted 3rd overall
Jammal Brown, NO drafted 13th overall
Average = 8.25

These were the tackles (Right and Left) that are the starters and reserves for the Pro Bowl. Now if I disregard Tarik Glenn and Chris Samuels, (the lowest and highest picks), and average the rest is 8.25. So an average the top talent at Tackle is taken in the Top 10 of the draft.

Now I?ll use the same formula for the rest of the positions.

Offensive Guards
Alan Faneca, PIT 26th overall pick
Will Shields, KC 82nd overall pick
Brian Waters, KC 225th overall pick
Shawn Andrews, PHI 16th overall pick
Larry Allen, SF49th overall pick
Steve Hutchinson, MIN 17th overall pick
Average = 43.5 overall pick

Centers
Jeff Saturday, IND 225th overall pick
Nick Hardwick, SD 67th overall pick
Olin Kreutz, CHI 67th overall pick
Matt Birk, MIN 180th overall pick
Average = 123.5

Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson, HOU 3rd overall pick
Chad Johnson, CIN 37th overall pick
Marvin Harrison, IND 19th overall pick
Reggie Wayne, IND 30th overall pick
Torry Holt, STL 6th overall pick
Donald Driver, GB 199th overall pick
Steve Smith, CAR 76th overall pick
Anquan Boldin, ARI 54th overall pick
Average = 37

Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning, IND 1st overall pick
Carson Palmer, CIN 1st overall pick
Philip Rivers, SD 4th overall pick
Drew Brees, NO 33rd overall pick
Marc Bulger, STL 1162nd overall pick
Tony Romo, DAL 225th overall pick
Average = 50

Defensive ends
Jason Taylor, MIA 67th overall pick
Aaron Schobel, BUF 47th overall pick
Derrick Burgess, OAK 65th overall pick
Julius Peppers, CAR 2nd overall pick
Aaron Kampman, GB 149th overall pick
Will Smith, NO 18th overall pick
Average = 51.75

Interior Defensive Linemen
Richard Seymour, NE 6th overall pick
Jamal Williams, SD 33rd overall pick
Casey Hampton, PIT 19th overall pick
Kevin Williams, MIN 9th overall pick
Kris Jenkins, CAR 45th overall pick
Tommie Harris, CHI 14th overall pick
Average = 18.75

Another position I don't hear about us drafting in the first is Cornerback, so I decided to look at that position also because it seems to be a debth problem there as well.

Cornerbacks
Rashean Mathis, JAC 39th overall pick
Chris McAlister, BAL 10th overall pick
Champ Bailey, DEN 7th overall pick
Ronde Barber, TB 70th overall pick
Lito Sheppard, PHI 26th overall pick
DeAngelo Hall, ATL 8th overall pick
Average = 20.75

Now I'm not saying this formula is the way Savage or anyone should draft but I do believe that it clearly shows that the more top talent are Tackles and Interior Defensive Linemen than any other position that the Browns are weak at. Even Cornerbacks are rated higher than the other "sexy" picks that I keep hearing for us to draft. I truely believe that the Browns need to draft Joe Thomas and if he is not availble we take Alan Branch. We need to work on both lines in this draft and we can work on the other positions in FA and next years draft. But that's JMHO.

Knowing the Browns they will win next week and we will be sitting at 6-7 and Thomas and Branch will be gone.

Players drop and rise all the time. Ngata was the top DT last year and nobody thought he would last outside the top 10. Ngata was a pretty big boy.

<img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" />[color:"white"]

So if we don't take a QB until the 35th round, we'll still have a shot at him panning out <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />


And we won't win next week. Bite your tongue. Remember, we're starting Ken Dorsey *L*

I'm in the same camp as you. Thomas first, Branch second. Troy Smith isn't a top-5 player at this point, and I doubt he'll move up this quickly. We can also forget Johnson, as we're invested at WR right now.

All signs point back to Thomas or Branch. I'd much rather have Thomas, but Branch won't upset me (as long as they have a plan to fix the O-line).

By the way, it's good info on the pro-bowlers. It is a popularity contest, but they are obviously part of the reason their teams are winning. [/color]

[color:"white"]Here's some more positive pimpage for Thomas. He's the winner of the Outland Trophy. Here's the past winners of that award who've played on the offensive line:
Greg Eslinger
Jamal Brown
Robert Gallery
Bryant McKinnie
Chris SAmuels
Kris Farris
Aaron Taylor
Orlando Pace
Jonathan Ogden
Zach Wiegert
Will Shields
Mo Elewonibi (we're back to 1990 now, and I forgot all about this guy *L*)
Dean STeinkuhler
Dave Rimington
Mark May
Jim Ritcher
Ritcher is going back to '79. That's far enough <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

There are some great players on that list. Most of them not only panned out, but are or were premier players.[/color]

Pretty interesting statistics. I would really like to see if the numbers in previous years are consistent with these. I think it's a pretty known fact that the elite tackles come from the top of the draft, I don't think that there's much disputing that and that's what the number shows. The question is does Joe Thomas have what it takes to be a top tackle in this league? Not many tackles are worthy of a top 3 pick, so is he one of those guys?

Just out of interest, I wanted to take the same criteria that you used and look at the RB position:

Ladanian Tomlinson SD 5
Larry Johnson KC 27
Willie Parker Pit 225
Frank Gore SF 65
Tiki Barber 36
Steven Jackson 24

Comes out to 38

For us this year, it really depends on who is available. If Branch comes out, I think the two best options for us would either be him or Thomas (havn't really seen him much, just going on what others here say). If they both manage to be off the board, Peterson IMO would be our next best choice. However, if Branch or Thomas aren't there I would fully expect us to try to trade down. If that's not sucessful, we should draft Peterson. It's sad, but losing to Houston is probably the best thing that we can do for the future of this team.

As much as I appreciate the effort required to put something like this together, I put little to no stock in it. You've chosen to look at the o-line stat as a positive light but allow me to play devil's advocate with some "fun" stats of my own. <img src="/images/graemlins/naughtydevil.gif" alt="" />

Of the 6 Pro-Bowl tackles you listed, only one of them is young (Brown), and he's a guy who probably wouldn't have even be starting the Pro-Bowl if Pace were healthy. That set aside, from the age of those guys, I could also take the information you had, kick in a bit of my own, and twist it to say:

"Since 2000, only one first round tackle drafted has been a Pro-Bowler."

I'm not kidding either. Of the 15 first round picks spent on linemen since 2000, Jammal Brown is the only one of them to make an initial Pro Bowl roster. That's because not a single other one has been able to beat out the same guys who have made it for about a decade. Does that mean that I should use this information to speak about how useless it would be to invest a first rounder on an offensive lineman? Of course not. <img src="/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" />

The bottom line is that we can't use this information, as you suggested, to favor line over the "sexy picks". Each pick needs to be evaluated on an individual basis and made based on what we need. I happen to think Peterson's the best pick for us given how bland our offense is, but that's just my personal analysis. If Thomas should be the pick, there needs to be some logic behind it. I have gotten very sick of hearing "Best OL available!" or "All OL/DL and nothing else!" or even "Let's draft a guy we can plug in at tackle for the next 10 years". It's about more than just cliches.

I hope Phil Savage drafts based on what this team needs, and not what all the adages tell us because maybe then, we can at least consider the "sexy pick" in Peterson, because he really would be a sexy option for a team in dire need of playmakers in the running game.

Good post FA, and an excellent reason to take LT Joe Thomas if he's there for us. In addition, there is apparently a lot of quality at D-line and OG in this year's draft.

OL

[color:"gold"] Free...it depends on who is available at the time we pick.

If Joe Thomas is available and the Browns are picking #3, it would be a no brainer.

If Savage is determined to Oline and Joe Thomas is gone by the time we pick, trading down makes sense as Joe Thomas is the only OLine guy that looks to going in the top 10.

I have made no secret that I feel the Browns must focus on building the offensive line via the draft and getting away from a free agent dominated Oline.

Hopefully Savage will focus on the trenches on both sides of the ball as well as the corners. [/color]

Those are the two names that I see.....I want the guy who will start day one and have the most impact.

If whoever we draft doesn't start opening day, one of Savage or Romeo needs to be canned the Monday morning after.


If the guy isn't NFL ready(as much as can be expected from a rook) I don't want him. We can no longer draft guys who can't help day one....at least in rounds one and two.

They better be playing.

RB, D-Line....

get troy smith in the 2nd round...

Spectre,
You speak of Logic when it comes to our first pick. How logical is it to use our first pick on a guy that couldn't stay healthy in college. We had enough running backs that couldn't stay healty and we finally got rid of them. Right now both Joe Thomas and Adrian Peterson have had good college careers but they both are prospects and there is no guarantee that Joe Thomas will be the next Orlando Pace or the next Robert Gallery, just like there is no guarantee that Adrian Peterson will be the next LT or the next Lee Suggs.

But when you look at this team right now, Running back is not our top need. You say our offense is bland, well it starts with the line. Fix the line and everything else will fix it self.

Do you think Willie Parker is that great? Or is it the fact that he has such a great line that gives him huge holes to run through? Where is AP going to run when he has the defensive line tackling him when he is handed the ball?

I have had a man crush on Thomas every since last season... He may be the first Browns Jersey I buy IF we do get him... If he is gone and Alan Branch doesn't declare, I could appreciate the Adrian Peterson pick...

Sadly enough, B Sleazy has jaded the #3 pick for Mr. Calvin Johnson... Best player in the draft or not, there would be mutiny of the utmost porportions in Berea if he were chosen with or without Joe on the board...

As bad as our CB position has been this year, I think Savage looks at the Lines and chooses to pull the trigger on the greatest need there... IF Branch does declare, I would HATE to see us grab him at #3 if we can shop the pick around and indeed, there should be some suitors then as that means that Adrian Peterson AND/OR Calvin Johnson are there... it is going to be interesting to say the least...

PLEASE guys, DON'T F' This one up!! Let's go Texans!!

Now I am all about that ! <img src="/images/graemlins/thumbsup.gif" alt="" /> .. Thats why I had a problem with the reach in 2005 with the " Pool " pick ! In fact I had a problem with the whole 2005 draft ! <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" />

[color:"red"] If whoever we draft doesn't start opening day, one of Savage or Romeo needs to be canned the Monday morning after.
[/color]

<img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" />

Classic!
For me, take Thomas or Branch..

Why is that funny??

We need players who can help right away.

Something has to be screwy if top picks can't start on this team.

Living where I do , I just don't get enough College Ball .. I hear a " Branch " talked about a " Whole " bunch .. Haven't seen him play this year .. Talk to me !!!!!!

Why U think I find it funny?
U always say that.
Wimbley didn't start from game 1 did he?

Branch...6 ' 6 330 ..DT aggressive, physical and can stuff the run..he'd make a good NT for our 34 .

I guess these are the reason <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/rofl.gif" alt="" />

Wimbley not starting from day one is a good example. Why Romeo had him sitting and not learning sooner makes me wonder about his decision making.

The fact Wimbley turned out pretty good takes the pressure off of savage...at least in this case and makes you wonder about Romeo.

At least it does for me.

Well a raw rookie playing OLB instead of DE was new, so I think Rac was just wanting to see if KW would transistion without blowing a fuse..his play dictated he could handle the transisition..now Jackson started at ILB ..so that showed something..I think our first pick next year will start..

I didn't think Branch was that tall ... 6' 6" ????

i dont know. we could put the SanDiego Chargers in Browns uniforms and they would finish 5-11

I think if we are sitting at 3 in the draft then there are only two choices I would be happy with. Thomas or Branch. You can make an argument for Peterson but without addressing the line that seems like a wasted pick to me.

I agree 100%. I'll be upset if we don't spend all of our first day picks on some combination of OL and DL.

That's what I'm thinking Peen... I mean look at the guys they would need to beat out for the position.. It's not like we are asking for a rookie offensive lineman to come in and start for Denver... we are asking for a rookie OL or DL to come in and start for the Browns... if a top 5 pick can't do that, then it was a bad draft pick... I feel almost as strongly about our second round pick but would be willing to give that person until the 3rd or 4th game to break into the starting line up....

And I'm like you, I'm not expecting them to come in on day one and dominate... just contribute and be an upgrade over what we have.... I expect the mistakes to happen...

Hell, our vets do that week in and week out... What really would the difference be? Romeo's rationalization in that one area baffles me.. Always has...

I'll be upset if we dont....talk about glaring holes....1st round pick I'm to the point I dont care if it's O-liner or D-line, just be one of the two, I do believe it will be D-line and Branch...2nd round guard, third round Best player at either side...

Wimbley started early in the season. Wasn't it game two? He also played a huge portion of game one. What you are saying about RAC is wrong. He did play him.

He has also played other rookies. The ones that appeared ready. Wimbley has played. DQ started. Frye started. Leon started. Now, even Leon Williams is playing. I think that certain rookies don't play because they just aren't very good.

I understand that it will be more convenient for you guys to run RAC out of town next. Just like the situation w/Mo...it's easier. That one worked out well....didn't it?

This franchise is in a world of hurt and anyone who thinks we are making progress is delusional. We have a long, long way to go. I wonder how many more coaches will lose their jobs before it sinks in that the ownership of this team is as bad as it gets. And I wonder how long it will take before people begin questioning Savage's methods for building a football team?

Should I add----------In my humble opinion? <img src="/images/graemlins/naughtydevil.gif" alt="" />

I thought I made it clear that either Romeo or Phil should be run out of town.

The Wimbley example is one that mitigates Savage a bit..Edwards is one who doesn't.

My point is I don't think Phily and Romeo are that close in their thinking. I think we would go in different directions in both drafting and coaching(if Phil was a coach). They seem to be opposites.

You can blend oil and vinegar with some care, but in time, they will separate.

I don't know which one is right, but knowing the power set-up, it isn't hard tp predict which guy will get the axe first, just as you do. Unlike you, I am not certain that is the wrong move.

What I know is I don't this GM/coach set-up. At least in my eyes, this one isn't working and is doomed to fail because those guys don't seem to be on the same page in thinking or style.

I just get the feeling that if Romeo was in charge of the draft, we would have drafted many different players. If Phil was the coach, we would be playing an entirely different brand of ball.

WE should end up drafting 3-5 area. Your top 7look to be.
Calvin Johnson WR
Brady Quinn QB
Adrian Peterson RB
Joe Thomas ot
Gaines Adams DE/OLB
Jamarcus Russell QB
Alan Branch DT

Now this is not going to be a deep draft from the early looks. So if u draft high u gotta be certain and only Calvin Johnson and Gaines Adams are players that u can be pretty sure of what u are getting. Everyone else has some questions that wont be answered until senior bowl and combines. Troy Smith Fans "Forgetabout it"

There will also be a lot of teams looking to move up in this draft. Atlanta will make an attempt to come up for Calvin Johnson. The Bills need Branch desperately and they are always willing to move up to get the player the want. Anytime you throw in players like Adrian Peterson and Joe Thomas teams are gonna be willing to come up for them. Atleast the option will be there to trade down. Dont think we will but its an option.

[color:"red"]My point is I don't think Phily and Romeo are that close in their thinking. I think we would go in different directions in both drafting and coaching(if Phil was a coach). They seem to be opposites.
[/color]
Of course they're opposites, they are different personalites but what does being different translate into what players are selected?
I already told you Phil consults his coaches even after he's scouted and they discuss WHAT positions/players fit the need and Phil goes and gets them.
I don't get where you're coming from.
Now as far as veteran players Opie might have a different viewpoint..he might devalue the worth of a player based on work ethic /attitude(underachiever..see Warren)..and see a future draft pick from that player..

I see you ignored that this is not the case. He may not have started the very first game but he played in that game and he played from then on out. You still using this as an example?

You make no sense.

Did he start from the beginning or not?

I don't care what position our 1st round pick plays .... all I care about is that he plays like a 1st round player.

I'd rather get a 1st round talent in the 1st than draft for a "needed" position and grab yet another bust. Besides, this team needs damn near everything. <img src="/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" /> There are almost no positions that are so well stocked with talent that a major upgrade isn't possible.

We need Guards, Tackles, A QB, a RB, possibly a WR, DEs, NT, S, OLB, CB. Give me a great player at any of these positions and I'll be happy.

Phils first draft sucked.
2nd draft I think he got 3 starters in D'qwell, Wimbley and Leon Williams and Wilson is probaly our slot receiver next year. I still think Baba was a steal and will compete for a starting job next year along with Minter. Thats a hell of a draft.

He has that kind of success with OL and DL and we are really looking good.

landing Cribbs as an UDFA was pretty sweet also.
FA Russell was a good one. He is phils best signing to date.
JJ really come on late and was worth the money.
I wont complain with Bentley crap happens
Making a move for Hank was a smart move.

He has made some bad decisions like Baxter, Big Ted, Andruzzi, and McGinnest
Then you have Shaffer and Coleman.

So its a mixed bag.

Recent Career Tackles Sacks Interceptions Misc
Year Team G Solo Ast Total Sack YdsL Int Yds IntTD
06 Cleveland 15 42 17 59 10.0 57 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Career Totals (Full) 15 42 17 59 10.0 57 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

Wimbley has played 15 games..

The split stats say 15 games total and 14 as a starter.

split stats

Are you serious? Can't even backpedal out of this one so your going to nitpick your way to looking like foolish.

If you are going to use the fact that he didn't "start" the very first game as a reason to question RAC's thought process, to further your opinion that he doesn't know what he's doing, you are GRASPING at straws.

[color:"orange"]Well my guy has always been Joe Thomas since the beginning of the season. I didn't want to think about it cause we were far from be able to pick him.

Now we are painfully close. Det/Raiders will be 1/2 no doubt. We are tied with Tampa but because of tie breakers its not heads up...its strength of schedule I believe we are #4 not #3 - my fear is that Gruden needs a LT as badly as we do. And our dream LT will be gone unless he goes for Calvin Johnson. That of course is assuming we lose to the Texans.

But you are right Interior DL stud and LT are two rare positions. Good athletic 300+ lbers are rare in a big mans game. Joe Thomas, Branch and the RB Lynch are my 3 guys I would like for us to get with JT way ahead on my list.

JMHO

Ya .. Wimbely was definetly a step backwords .. as was DQ .. HORRIBLE PROGRESS THERE ... *LOL* ..

were either delisiunal or not filled with BITTERNESS .... one of the two ... <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />



Yes we do ... Thanks to [color:"white"] bOtch and the Don ... [/color]



I find it VERY VERY IRONIC that U give Randy Lerner all the BLAME and he has been the owner for an entire year longer than the current coaching staff ... and Randy had been involved in football with his Dad for about 5 yerars prior to his becoming owner .. and he has HIRED A TOTAL OF ONE HC AND ONE GM who have been around a total of 2 years and your all ready calling ofr new ownership .. *L* ..

just like Opie needs some time .. so does Randy ... to bad Opie didnt do what u wanted .. cause then he'd be getting all the rope in the world .. BAD OPIE BAD OPIE .. where is Andy when u need him .. *L*



theres all ready some concerns .. but this DRAFT and FA period will go a long long way in my opinion of the guy ...

to bad u wanna judge him 1/2 way through the book ... let him FINISH the RE-BUILDING before u condem him and Randy to hell ...

Bitterness is a bad bad thing ..