OBR Film Room: Why Baker Mayfield Struggled And Processing A Path ForwardByJAKE BURNS Jan 12, 5:49 AM
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CLEVELAND, Ohio -- It's truly tough to believe we are here. I'm sitting down trying to write this, trying to explain to you how 2021 broke Baker Mayfield and potentially the Cleveland Browns' future. You can call that statement dramatic, but the reality is the Browns are now questioning a position many in the industry started to feel had been solidified by the end of 2020's playoff run.
The cliche "quarterbacks get too much of the credit and too much of the blame" will always hold true with me. I'm someone who values the nuance and process over the results. However, this sport is not processed in a singular frame of reference. I view quarterback play differently than you do, and you view it differently than me. We all bring our personal biases and experiences to the table and then we form our opinion.
That difference in consumption and analysis is why there is a clear divide happening right now among those who support Mayfield through anything and those who feel the Browns title window is now and they can't let another season of quarterback play happen as it did in 2021.
The root of the issue is that Mayfield has failed to be the version you started to grow comfortable with at the end of 2020. He was one of the key reasons, from Week 7 on, that the offense, and Mayfield, found success en route to a playoff appearance.
This is what all quarterbacks chase - consistent success. Find your best way to move the football for your offense, your identity as a quarterback, and repeat that formula. For Mayfield it was simple - Kevin Stefanski's scheme keeps it that way for the quarterback. Above all else, make the schemed throws, hit your downfield opportunities, manage the game without turnovers, and convert a handful of those "creation" plays when everything falls apart. Mayfield did most of this at a high level from 2020 Week 7 on, and it provided the light to a path forward after a disastrous 2019 and start to 2020.
While no deal was struck in the offseason between Mayfield and the Browns, they were clearly on the right path. Duplicate your success in isolated quarterback play in 2021 and the rest will take care of itself. The front office was starving for Mayfield to show that his formula was repeatable but the formula broke down early. Mayfield started strong in Kansas City before the final three drives of the game ended punt, punt, and an interception.
The Week 17 loss in Pittsburgh, including nine sacks, was the type of ugly ending that manifested the old fear of change and has forced us to look back and try to figure out if Mayfield is too far gone to come back from what is either just a lost year or something more.
This article will trend into the negative in Mayfield's game because in order to figure out how he moves forward, we have to pinpoint what has gone wrong for the fourth year quarterback through his career so far and in 2021 specifically.
There is proof Mayfield can find NFL success. There is recent tape of it. The problem remains in the consistency. He has to clean up these issues to move forward as not just the Browns' starter in 2022, but to re-establish himself as the future for the franchise at the position.
SETTING THE HALLWAY AND SEQUENCING
Now we shift to the study of where Mayfield's mechanics have led him astray this season. There are two areas that stand out to me: how he aligns his body to his throwing targets and issues he has getting his sequencing right in order to deliver the football with accuracy on a consistent basis.
The issues for Mayfield are certainly not isolated to just himself, but others across the league as well. Zach Hicks of Horseshoe Huddle did a fantastic study on Carson Wentz last year when he was traded to Indianapolis. While not every part of the Wentz study translates, a few key areas do.
The first is a concept known as "setting the hallway."
Hicks spent time discussing the concept with Dub Maddox who is the QB Coach and Offensive Coordinator at Union High School and has authored many books on quarterback play. He is also the founder of the R4 operating system that is tailored to improve quarterback and coaching decision-making.
Maddox explained, "The hips are where all movement originates from. The idea is that if you are a quarterback and you are scanning the field, you have to have the ability to rotate that front hip. If you put a camera on that front hip, that camera has to be pointed to the route space that you are throwing to. If your back foot is set up properly, then your front hip is set up properly."
"You have to kind of over-correct those right eye dominant quarterbacks and make sure they understand about that hip position and setting that vertical hallway," he added.
If you have watched Mayfield enough, you know his consistent miss is high and behind. More often on right side throws than the left side, but nonetheless, that is his issue. These throws were front and center this year but certainly not isolated to just 2021.
There are several that stand out this year and you can see how Mayfield is fighting his mechanics due to the poor lower body set. The second interception in the Green Bay game was a great example of this. Watch how he is fighting the lower body here and never gets the lead foot and hip working in the direction he needs to throw.
Look where the hallway is allowing Mayfield to throw and where he is actually attempting to throw it.
Against the Lions, there were a few examples of the issues again. The first interception on the day was as evident as it can get. Watch as Mayfield works back to his right, but the feet and hips never sync to the eyes upon throwing.
Here's the visual at delivery to show you the issues truly stem from the miscommunication happening between what the head is telling Mayfield to do and what his lower body is allowing. Look specifically at the front foot direction.
It's easy to blame these issues on 2021's injuries alone and move on, but these issues have been around for Mayfield throughout his career. While the injuries don't help, the lack of consistency in mechanics is what leads to those turnover-worthy throws that cost your team games.
In the 2020 season-opener in Baltimore, Mayfield had Odell Beckham Jr. up the hash on a bender route and the hallway issues popped up again. Watch him fight the lower half and leave this ball outside the window to the right side.
Again, look how his lower body hangs the upper body out to dry here.
Tracking back to 2019, Mayfield had two easy examples of this issue. Against the Titans in the opener where he leaves a ball outside his right side target again due to the poor lower half. You can see how it often happens when he scans left side to the right side and the feet just don't work quickly enough with the eyes.
Front foot down the middle of the field for a ball that ends up outside on the numbers. No way can accuracy consistently happen with this flaw.
One last example of a right-side issue in 2019 here as Mayfield is working off play action against the Seahawks. Watch the feet again as this is almost an identical look to the 2021 throw against the Packers.
There is very little chance for this ball to be accurate on an in-breaking or vertical route. Unless you find a way to overcome with arm talent and Mayfield lacks that ability.
Another focal point for Mayfield is the issues he will have in what is called sequencing. This is a popular sports term for many uncoiling motions - think swing sports like tennis, golf, or baseball. It also translates to those throwing motions like pitching or quarterback play where you generate power and accuracy through a repeatable uncoiling motion.
Aligning the sequence of a quarterback's body is a major coaching point for quarterback Guru Tom House and 3DQB, according to Hicks' research.
"You throw like a batter in baseball. In baseball, the first move that initiates is that lower body and that front foot. What good hitters do is called dissociation. In dissociation, it allows your body to carry efficient power through your body," House notes.
"Keep your hands on the ball and don’t move your hands until you feel that forward foot strike the ground. It creates a coil effect that builds up spiral spring tension in the core that can release as you separate your hands."
That is why Aaron Rodgers looks so effortless throwing the ball down the field. It is all about his sequencing. Everything is compact, it works in a fluid process from start to finish.
There are times where you will feel Mayfield struggling to bring his back half through in his sequencing. When he does get that hallway set, he will get into a similar problem that Wentz ran into where the timing is slightly off and the arm doesn't stay at proper pace with the front hip.
Watch Mayfield on a couple of throw examples. Watch how hard he is fighting to get the back half caught up with the front portion of the throwing motion and it causes him to have inaccurate outcomes.
Again, from 2020, as you can see the back half never gets through, elbow trailing the hip and it leads to a sailed throw. Consistency is the concern.
There are examples of Mayfield figuring this out. When he does get the lower body to catch up with his eyes, he can rip it with accuracy. Watch the quick shift in his base going from left to right here. Watch how active it is instead of the passive approach when he lets the ball drift. When he gets it all right, you can see a path to a repeatable formula. But, again, how willing is he to put in the work to consistently find that formula.
The failure to do so consistently is what haunts him. As we know, you can have 25 quality throws in an NFL game, but if five go sideways and turn into turnovers, then that will be how you are judged. The challenge is how often you can get the mechanics right. It takes insane muscle memory and for a quarterback like Mayfield, who has immense arm strength but not immense arm talent, he has to be buttoned up on the mechanics.
Some quarterbacks are gifted enough to have natural arm strength through a "flick of the wrist" but that isn't Mayfield. He has to generate it through his core and it takes every fiber of his body. When he does generate the torque necessary he can really drive it, but again, the mechanics have to be buttoned up. He can't miss on the hallway or the sequencing or his range of outcomes is likely to be poor.
So, again, the question for Mayfield is how often can he get those mechanics right. He has to be insane about them. Brees was wired this way. Manning as well. Those who didn't have insane arm talent but made up for it with those repeatable mechanics (plus some other variables we will get to).
Hicks made a great point in his article about quarterbacks who have the arm talent to make those poor platform throws with accuracy. Those who can get away with things Mayfield simply cannot.
He spoke with QB Coach Steve Calhoun of Armed and Dangerous QB. Calhoun is a top quarterback trainer who is an instructor with the Manning Passing Academy and has helped train multiple NFL quarterbacks (most notably Jordan Love).
"Move and reset, not move and throw off of one foot." said Calhoun. "There’s only one Pat Mahomes, and only one Aaron Rodgers."
That's the biggest thing with off-platform throws. Can quarterbacks with great arm talent do them? Absolutely. The problem, though, is the body loses so much strength and accuracy when not properly synced up.
Players like Mahomes, Allen, and Rodgers can make absurd throws without being properly synced, but even they would agree that it is better to reset and throw than to throw off of one foot.
"I get into great discussions with my quarterbacks who want to do more off-platform." said Calhoun. "I say 'let’s go watch some NFL film and get a percentage where they actually threw off-platform or off of one foot.' It’s maybe only seven or eight times a game where quarterbacks truly throw off-platform."
Off-platform throws are great for highlights but they are not a consistent way to play quarterback in the NFL. A more productive and efficient way to approach the game is to slide, reset, and deliver an accurate throw with a proper base.
The final sentence there is Mayfield's path in the NFL as it comes to mechanics, but he has to commit to them and spend time with someone who will help him find that repeatable approach.
DRIFTING IN THE POCKET
As we can all recall, Mayfield had a poor tendency to bail clean pockets in 2019 and when 2020 arrived you could sense his urgency to fight that poor habit. Mayfield worked to overhaul his pre-snap footwork in 2020, but with the desire to hang in the pocket a point of emphasis, Mayfield formed a new habit that wasn't helping the offense.
When he reaches the top of his drop, you will see Mayfield drifting to one side or the other where his eyes are working through progressions. While it seems harmless, it is a propensity that puts pressure in Mayfield's lap that he creates and you can see his offensive lineman frustrated with not knowing where he will be on any given drop.
The game in New England, which was rough all around, provided several examples. Watch here as Mayfield pushes left where his eyes are carrying him at the top of his drop and how he has to overcorrect the steps and causes him to be late and pressure created.
Again, the eyes are working left side, Mayfield drifts left and never climbs the pocket, the high side rush is waiting on him as he drifts.
Much like the hallway and sequencing issues we just spoke about, Mayfield has to clean up how he works inside the pocket. He can't drift himself into pressure or sacks. He has to hit the designated drop point and work those pocket processes with clean footwork. If you drift, you put your passing windows at risk and make life tougher on your tackles than it already is.
BROKEN PROCESSING
As with the physical part of the game we just covered for Mayfield, the mental side took a serious hit in 2021. This is where the biggest single season regression happened. These have been well-documented throughout the season on the OBR Twitch Chalk Talk sessions, but there are quick examples that show you Mayfield left too many plays on the field. Plays where his processing is slow and he either creates a negative play or passes up the right option for a weaker one.
Mayfield's first interception against the Packers in Week 16 is a clear example. Stefanski wanted to attack the single-high Packers defense with a popular Yankee Concept that puts a vertical and horizontal burden on the defense. Stefanski was wise and mixed in some shotgun run play-action with it.
Mayfield has to decipher the role of that single-high safety. If he gets nosey and bites on the deep over route from Rashard Higgins, he can take the post shot. If he squats over the top, then the over becomes the route to throw. Here is the decision-making point.
Darnell Savage, the Packers free safety, has turned on the post quite clearly here. The backside cornerback clearly is tied up with Donovan Peoples-Jones which leaves Higgins wide open. The ball is thrown over the top.
Here is a look at the play from both views.
We saw this is clear evidence in the Week 17 game in Pittsburgh where Mayfield missed the open drag route from his backside tight end in order to throw a tight window comeback on the sideline.
He also passed up two open options on a 3rd and 2 when at the top of his drop only to take a sack. More signs that late in the season Mayfield was failing to see the coverage clearly.
He didn't work well off his first read to his second read in 2021 as well. Not that he has ever been as efficient as we would hope in this area, it was obvious he started to force throws. On this squirrel route from Jarvis Landry against the Ravens, the cornerback is sitting on the route's outside breaking course, and Mayfield never comes off the route. He leaves it inside and it is intercepted, but watch how open the middle of the field dig route is if he simply comes off that first read.
We all remember the missed flat read here in Week 4 where Mayfield rolls out right side off the play-action fake on 3rd and 2. Demetric Felton, in flat motion, is wide open in the flat the whole time Mayfield rolls out but he never processes him in front of his face and takes an eventual sack.
It's not just the downfield processing I am worried about, but also the immediate answers he misses as well.
Mayfield is simply unable to work through things quick enough with pressure in his lap to know what his quick answers are either. Watch these two examples. First from the Cardinals' visit to Cleveland on a 4th and short where Mayfield never processes his backside flat route as a replacement to the Cardinals' right side pressure.
Another example is this inside pressure situation where Mayfield could drop it off to his running back releasing out the backfield but he panics himself into a sack instead of throwing a pass with touch to an open receiver in front of his face. This is how limited athleticism quarterbacks make plays above expectation. Play with immense anticipation. Not an easy play, but one he needs to make to prove himself a long-term answer.
I also have concerns about Mayfield learning from previous mistakes. Watch these two schemes from 2019 when the Browns visited New England and then again in 2021. You can tell Belichick and the Patriots defense knows if they show Mayfield a man-to-man coverage look that he will forget all about the placement of the corner on routes breaking outside from the No. 2 receiver. These two look familiar?
It is no secret that Mayfield will have to win from the pocket for long-term success. If he is to do that for the foreseeable future then he has to clean up these processing errors and prove he can decipher defenses at a higher level. He simply has to get to a better level here. I actually can't emphasize enough how important it is for Mayfield to improve in this category if he ever is to become that upper echelon quarterback many hoped he would.
Following the promise we started to see here in 2020, there were major steps back in 2021. The Browns are stuck figuring out whether this can really be fixed - at least with some consistency.
THE PATH FORWARD
The path forward truly starts with the Browns committing to Mayfield. There were positive signs in the language general manager Andrew Berry used when discussing the quarterback earlier this week.
“I think it is easy to forget this point of year that what we have seen with Baker over the past several years, obviously he had his most productive season in this offense under Kevin as early as last year. We have been with Baker for a long period of time at this point. We know his work ethic, we know his drive and we have seen him as a talented passer in this league. We are looking forward to him getting healthy and continuing to make improvements. We expect him to bounce back next year.”
There is a path to success for Mayfield at the NFL level. He displayed much of that path through his play in 2020 from the mid-point on. He’s given us a recent glimpse. The league has been attacking Mayfield’s weaknesses since his arrival as a rookie. He must adapt.
For the best foot forward, Mayfield must clean up his mechanics and tendencies prior to the ball leaving his hand. He controls that outcome. He has to own the mistakes made so far in his career and commit to a process for improvement.
He has to make those schemed throws he missed too often in 2021. He has to trust his eyes and stop the double clutching on answers sitting right in front of his face.
The Browns have every right to worry about the physical side of Mayfield's game, but there needs to be a consideration if the physical side this year did more damage to the mental side and whether he can get back that confidence that appears to be waning. By the end of the year he was a shell of his previous self.
Tom House talked about this exact issue.
"(Losing confidence) is something that is not unusual. It happens in baseball, it happens in golf. It breaks your heart when you watch it going on because you can only do so much until they reach out. It usually takes a village to help these kids navigate the waters that they are in now."
In the past, Mayfield has declined the notion of needing a private quarterback coach or to rework his mechanics. Is Mayfield willing to reach out now given the issues we see? Is he willing to chase the help he needs this off-season to give him the hard truth about who he is as a quarterback? If he’s willing to swallow some of that ego and pride, he can resurface as a quality quarterback, but the ball is in his court.
If the Browns can get Mayfield back on track with an improved set of pass catchers then the offense will trend back toward the dominant versions we saw not too long ago. If you get a repeat of 2021’s results then it does not bode well for anyone’s future.
The pressure is on.
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