DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Sigh…the economy... Part 2

Are you trying to bring pure football into political threads? Crazy talk that is.

Caught covid, and threw ketchup on the oval wall. Priceless!

Ash, Maple, and Mulberry. Some is good, some isn't.... the mulberry will get burned, the Maple will go on the sawmill and get turned into live edge slabs, the Ash will get turned into posts & beams for my barn expansion.

Is that the place in Italy that's practically trying to give fixer-upper stuff away?

Mulberry is my casualty as well. Cut 1 inch thick discs out of the biggest part (about 15 inches in diameter) and wife is going to try to make charcuterie boards out of it. One thing that was crazy was how quickly the termites and carpenter ants built nests under the logs when they were lying on the ground. Practically overnight.

No idea, good question. But the euro is down a good bit, so it could just be timing.

That's true. I bought tickets for "Die Wiesn" and it was practically a 1:1 ratio. I don't remember the last time that was the case for the exchange rate.

Sigh... Now prepare for the Biden Recession.

If there is a recession, which I also think will happen, it won't be due to Biden's ineptness, nope the GOPer obstructionists and Trump will share most of the blame. But Biden is the man, so you will all blame him for it all and he should shoulder his fair share.

Trump caused the recession by not snuffing out COVID... just ask Kamala. If Joe would have been prez, we wouldn't have even had COVID.

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112...as-more-democrats-sour-on-him-poll-finds

Biden's approval rating in the poll is now at 36%. That's a 4 percentage-point drop from June, and inside the numbers, it's attributable to a 9-point decline within his own party.

For context, Donald Trump's approval within his party when he was president was never that low in the poll, not even after the Jan. 6 insurrection (77%) or the Charlottesville, Va., white supremacist demonstration (76%), at which one person was killed — and whose participants Trump dismissed as "very fine people, on both sides."

In this survey, four times as many respondents said they strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing than approve — 43% to 11%. And only 30% of Democrats said they strongly approve of the job the president is doing.

Not only are his approval ratings lower than those of any president at the same point in their presidencies since World War II, but he is facing inflation that's the highest it has been in decades as well as high gas prices.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that two-thirds of Democrats said they preferred someone else to be their party's standard-bearer in 2024, citing, principally, Biden's age.

My question is who would they get?

So they give Biden's overall approval rating and then cite Trump's approval rating "within his own party". Afterwords they didn't give Biden's actual approval rating within his own party. They simply provided what percentage hope they run a different candidate in 2024. So you think only those Democrat who "strongly approve" of the job he's doing would say they approve?

Do you even read these things before you post them?

It's quoted from NPR. If you have a problem with the source, take it up with them.

I took it up with the person who posted it.

Oh, the irony.

The same could be said about your extremist comment.

I mean, you would say that in an poor attempt at a rebuttal. But, that would be about it.

Of course it would.

It's an opinion piece, so I know one side will ignore it. But I'll post it for those who are interested.

It’s the (pandemic) economy

The impact of the pandemic on the U.S. and global economy was catastrophic. Economic historian Adam Tooze characterized its impact as being “the swiftest and most comprehensive contraction of global economic activity ever.”

There are clearly other factors at work with regard to the economic problems confronting the U.S. and rest of the world, but it is safe to assume that the present economic conundrums would not exist without the pandemic. President Biden is being blamed for issues that are largely beyond his control and not of his making. Inflation is the primary focus of most Americans, who are concerned about rising prices for gasoline, consumer goods and utilities. FiveThirtyEight found that inflation has had a significant impact on Biden’s approval rating.

The discontent over inflation is accompanied by fear of recession as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to respond to spiraling prices. The stock market has been volatile, plunging in reaction to concerns over an uncertain economy. Yet, unemployment is also historically low, and the American public is traveling again at pre-pandemic levels — a sign of consumer confidence.

Peter Goodman wrote in the New York Times about what has been termed a “force hiding in plain sight” — the economic shock of the pandemic. Goodman suggests that the present economic crisis is in reaction to the pandemic and has been exacerbated by Russia’s disastrous attack on Ukraine. He quotes University of Texas economist Julia Coronado as saying, “Pretty much everything in our lives has been disrupted by the pandemic, and then we layer on that a war in Ukraine.”

Supply and demand, which is fundamental to the cost of goods and services, were affected dramatically by the pandemic. People largely stayed at home. Jobs were lost and businesses were closed. Supply chains were disrupted. The nature of work and education changed. How people viewed their jobs and their future in the workforce was altered.

Lockdowns meant that the home became central to day-to-day lives, which altered patterns of consumption and how the economy functioned. For example, going to movies and restaurants was drastically curtailed, even halted. The restrictions of everyday life during the height of the pandemic had an impact on how people viewed their day-to-day activities. Working from home, another pandemic-related change, affects issues such as office space, public transportation and the functioning of businesses that no longer connect to the pre-pandemic economic reality of going into the office regularly.

Understanding the role that the pandemic has played in determining the present economic state in the U.S. and globally, as well as the economic future, is key to determining responses to present crises. Biden has been criticized for putting too much money into the economy and thereby increasing the likelihood of inflationary pressure with his American Rescue Plan, but the plan was literally a lifeline for millions of Americans — who, in turn, helped stabilize the economy.

In addition, the U.S. just joined 17 other nations in responding to supply chain issues via the Supply Chain Ministerial Forum. This effort is a good example of a response to the international dimension that the pandemic and related crises are having on the U.S. and the global economy.

Familiar tools such as the Fed’s raising of interest rates are being used to respond to the rise in inflation. There are risks to this approach, but the calculation is that it is a risk worth taking. The issue of placing political blame on the Fed chairman plays an important role in the argument of whether there will be support for the Fed in its effort to raise interest rates and stop inflation from careening out of control.

As economic writer and scholar Sebastian Mallaby recently pointed out in the Washington Post, “If (former President) Trump or a Trumpist wins in 2024, he or she will probably attack the Fed at the expense of growth and jobs, even though the best thing the Fed can do for the economy is to deliver stable prices. Vacancies on the Fed’s decision-making committee could be filled by hacks with no stomach for the short-term costs of containing inflation.”

The economy is fundamental to how people view their future, and how they view their future determines how they vote. This does not mean that tough analysis on economic policy choices is not warranted. It is, but if that analysis is to be sound it must include an honest assessment of the circumstances surrounding the present state of the economy. This is an existential issue, because, while the medical response to the pandemic has changed for the better as a result of innovations, the pandemic is far from over. It is also a safe bet that there will be future pandemics that will impact the daily lives of Americans.

The present economic crisis is not so much about inflation as it is about trusting and empowering political leaders to act responsibly in managing the economy under difficult and evolving circumstances. That trust must be based on facts and sound analysis and not on a faux populism buttressed by disinformation. There is too much at stake to do otherwise.

William Danvers is an adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School and worked on national security issues for the Clinton and Obama administrations.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3573069-its-the-pandemic-economy/

Fed hikes interest rates another 75 basis points as recession warnings flash

The Federal Reserve announced another steep interest rate hike Wednesday, ramping up its efforts to bring inflation down from four-decade highs.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the panel of Fed officials responsible for monetary policy, said Wednesday it would boost the central bank’s baseline interest rate by 0.75 percentage points to a range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent.

The Fed has now hiked interest rates by 75 basis points twice over the past two months, a remarkably fast increase that is likely to slow the economy. All 12 voting members of the FOMC supported the rate hike.

Fed officials have hinted at another 75 basis point rate hike for weeks since the June FOMC meeting. The bank raised rates last month by 0.75 percentage points for the first time since 1994 after inflation surged higher in May than economists expected.

While the Fed’s rapid rate hikes have throttled the housing market, suppressed stock values and spurred a small rise in layoffs, they’ve yet to make a noticeable impact on inflation.

Consumer prices rose 9.1 percent annually in June and 1.2 percent last month alone, according to Labor Department data released this month. Though war-related supply shocks beyond the Fed’s control drove much of the June inflation surge, prices across the economy grew at much faster rates despite the central bank’s actions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other top officials have insisted the bank will do whatever it takes to bring inflation back down toward its 2 percent annual target, even if it means higher unemployment and a potential recession in the short-term.

He also acknowledged the Fed has little ability to bring down food and energy prices, but would continue to hike rates if inflation didn’t turn around.

Powell and many economists argue that allowing inflation to spiral out of control would cause a deeper economic downturn than one caused by higher interest rates. Without aggressive steps to fight inflation, they warn, price increases will eventually cause unemployment to spike, but give the Fed and Congress little room to support the economy with stimulus.

“The process is likely — highly likely — to involve some pain, but the worst pain would be from failing to address this high inflation and allowing it to become persistent,” Powell said last month.

Though the economy on the whole has remained sturdy, the pain is already growing for many households with little room to handle higher prices.

Surging food, gasoline and shelter costs have pushed many struggling households toward food banks and difficult cutbacks.

Higher interest rates are boosting borrowing costs on credit cards, some automobile loans, and other loans without fixed interest rates, squeezing families on both sides of the balance sheet.

U.S. gross domestic product also fell during the first quarter of 2022 and economists say it’s likely GDP declined again in the second, meeting what had long been a rule-of-thumb definition for a recession.

While economists say the strong job market is a reassuring sign for the U.S. economy, some believe the Fed has already pushed the U.S. to the precipice of a recession and should slow down its fight against inflation.

“From here, it is possible that the Fed slows its tightening pace, reassured by the likely peaking of inflation and pullback in inflation expectations as oil prices have fallen,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Advisors, in a Wednesday analysis.

“However, with the labor market still a picture of strength, wage growth still uncomfortably high and core inflation set to decline at a glacially slow pace, the Fed certainly cannot stop tightening, nor can it downshift gears too much.

https://thehill.com/policy/3576406-...asis-points-as-recession-warnings-flash/

White House says Biden will make decision on student loans

The White House said on Tuesday that President Biden is mulling whether to extend the pause on federal student loan payments and whether to forgive student loans on a broader scale ahead of a pandemic-related moratorium on payments that are set to resume on Aug. 31.

“He’ll make a decision,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. “I’ll let him speak.”

She noted that Biden told reporters last week that “the end of August” is his timeline for making a decision. Biden in April extended the pandemic moratorium on federal student loan payments and interest accrual through August.

“The president understands firsthand how burdensome this can be for many Americans … across the country,” Jean-Pierre said. “That’s why he took the action that he did when it came to pausing repayment.”

She said she didn’t have anything more to share on loan cancellation.

Other White House officials have been mum when asked for updates on whether Biden will forgive any amount of student loans by executive action.

Top economic adviser Brian Deese said he didn’t have anything new to share on student loans, adding on Tuesday that “the president spoke to the timeline on this issue.”

A Department of Education spokesperson told The Hill on Tuesday that the administration is still assessing whether to extend the payment pause but that borrowers will be communicated with “directly” about the end of the freeze.

“The Department of Education will continue to assess the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economy on student loan borrowers. We will communicate directly with borrowers about the end of the payment pause when a decision is made,” the spokesperson said.

The statement follows Wall Street Journal reporting on Monday that student loan servicing contractors have been told to not send billing statements.

Before Biden announced the last extension in April, the Department of Education had asked companies to not send out notices about resuming payments.

The pause on student loan payments was first enacted in March 2020 under President Trump and has been extended multiple times since.

The White House has previously indicated that it is nearing a decision on broad student loan debt forgiveness, zeroing in on canceling $10,000 per borrower, but has not yet reached a final decision.

The administration in June announced a plan to discharge all outstanding federal student loans borrowed by former Corinthian Colleges students, providing $5.8 billion in loan cancellations to 560,000 borrowers. The group loan discharge applied to all former students who attended any campus owned or operated by Corinthian Colleges Inc. since the company was founded in 1995 through its closure in 2015.

https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...den-will-make-decision-on-student-loans/

I feel like he'd have to extend it beyond the midterms at least, for political purposes if nothing else.

if he doesn't extend it, it will definitely help fix the recession because people will have to start paying their student loans again.

j/c…

?

I think that's his best play. Cancelling student loan debt is going to be a polarizing move, but deferring repayment (again) until after the election quietly satisfies people sufficiently as far as I am concerned. For a while at least.

inflation exists because there is too much money in the marketplace and the average American has too much money. Because of that, the feds & Dems are scrambling to raise interest rates to oppress everyone financially.

Once everyone is properly put back in their place, the Democratic party can run on issues that make you feel like the govt is helping you. Ironically, the Democratic party is really the one who took from us in the first place.

Worst Inflation% in US history

20211 Joe Biden - Democrat 9.1%
2021 Joe Biden - Democrat 7.0%
1981 Jimmy Carter 8.9% (switched to Reagan and went down)
1980 Jimmy Carter 12.5%
1979 Jimmy Carter - Democrat 13.3%
1978 Jimmy Carter - Democrat 9.0%
1975 Nixson - Republican (end of gold standard) 9.1%
1974 Nixon - Republican 11%
1951 Harry Truman Democrat 7.9%
1947 Harry Truman Democrat 8.8%
1946 Harry Truman Democrat 18.1%
1942 FDR - Democrat 9.9%
1941 FDR - Democrat 9.0%
1920 Woodrow Wilson - Democrat 15.6%
1919 Woodrow Wilson - Democrat 14.6%
1918 Woodrow Wilson - Democrat 18.0%
1917 Woodrow Wilson - Democrat 17.4%
1916 Woodrow Wilson - Democrat 7.9%

Weird. I could swear some of these were progressive ideas, But Manchin and Schumer are the bill's sponsors... Hmm? It's almost like they are pitching something to progressives with progressive talking points, meanwhile, I bet the text and how it all works is not so much progressive. We'll see. I don't trust Manchin any farther than I could throw him.

The 'Nay' voters...



The democrat that voted against the bill's passage was TX Rep. Lloyd Doggett

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2022/roll400.xml

What is the purpose - are people going to start threatening these individuals?

I'm not sure I understand the question, SB. Should voters not be interested in how their representatives voted on a particular bill? This is fundamental.

An informed voter strengthens democracy and holds their elected officials accountable no matter your political leanings.

Dope!

I really didn’t mean to go down this rabbit hole, but deducing all that from student loans is quite something. It’s also a policy that he didn’t put in place but has just been extended from the previous administration.

I do understand the correlation you’re mentioning about inflation and democratic administrations, but your last prior example is from 1981 with two administrations between there.

There’s also an even deeper rabbit hole to discuss the cost of education in and of itself, but that’s for a different thread.

Regardless, the point I was originally making was what objectively would likely happen.

I see what you did there…

j/c:

America goes into RECESSION after second straight quarter of negative growth but Biden insists: 'We are on the right path'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ks-second-straight-quarter.html#comments

And McConnell is not happy about it because he got outplayed.......

McConnell assails Manchin's surprise economic deal after Democrats stripped his leverage to block it

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell bashed a nascent agreement between Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Democratic leaders that revived swaths of their agenda on Wednesday.

"Democrats have already crushed American families with historic inflation," the Kentucky Republican wrote on Twitter. "Now they want to pile on giant tax hikes that will hammer workers and kill many thousands of American jobs."

The agreement between Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer resuscitates various Democratic initiatives that were considered dead only two weeks ago. The 725-page bill — titled the "Inflation Reduction Act" — would empower Medicare to negotiate prescription drugs, extend financial assistance for people to buy Obamacare health insurance, and finance a variety of climate and energy programs to transition the US from fossil fuels.

Manchin released a statement announcing the deal less than five hours after 17 Senate Republicans, including McConnell, joined every Senate Democrat to approve a $52 billion bill to strengthen the semiconductor industry. These are computer chips powering smartphones, medical devices, and other high-tech items facing pandemic-related shortages.

McConnell had previously threatened to hold up the semiconductor legislation if Democrats tried advancing their health, climate, and tax bill. The latter measure is getting passed with only Democratic votes in the budget reconciliation process, allowing them to skirt GOP resistance.

"Let me be perfectly clear: there will be no bipartisan USICA as long as Democrats are pursuing a partisan reconciliation bill," McConnell tweeted a month ago, using another name for the bill.

Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a confidant of McConnell, sought to downplay the prospect that Manchin and Schumer outmaneuvered Republicans on the so-called chips bill. The Texas Republican was among those who gave it a thumbs-up.

"I always assumed if they had the votes to pass reconciliation, they would do it," Cornyn told Insider on Wednesday. "And there's nothing we could do to stop them."

Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana accused Democrats of double-crossing them. "They sucked Republican votes up like a Hoover Deluxe and then got their votes and then bam, announced this new tax increase," he told Fox News. "We look like a bunch of – well, I'm not going to say what we look like."

The semiconductor bill now heads to the House, where House Republicans are starting to line up in opposition. Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, said Senate Democrats had been "deceitful" for drawing GOP support on the chips bill, then announcing a broader agreement to revive Biden's agenda.

One prominent House progressive said she could understand if Republicans were angry at Manchin. "We've all been there," Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington told reporters.

https://www.businessinsider.com/mcc...RTFl_gPpZ_hO73jJ3S6PjtFbO6yGE_WPukp4w2H4

Crocodile tears.

I don't think either of us are crazy about Manchin. But let's look at how this all went down. Had Manchin voted with Democrats the first time around, the Republicans would have blocked the bill that got the 12 semi conductor plants. I hate corporate welfare. And I don't like it this time any better. But I will say that I consider us having our own ability to produce semi conductors a matter of national security.

It seems none of the Republicans knew there were back room dealings between Shumer and Joe Manchin. As such many of them joined with Democrats on the semi conductor bill because they thought the other bill was dead. Then only hours after Republicans helped pass the semi conductor bill they sprung this on them. And it all went down right about the time I thought the Democrats didn't have any idea how this game is played.