DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Palus Politicus Retirement funds

OK Like I always say I am down the Middle. I lien right on some things and left on others. So could somebody on the left please tell me why I should keep leaning that way sometimes??? During the last 3 years the republicans were in office my wife's retirement fund made over $36,000 the last two years she has lost over $38,000. What in the hell is wrong with this picture???

I don't even look at our accounts anymore. Last time I did, wife's were down $35,000. Mine were down the same percentage.

For people my age, it should come back. No guarantees, obviously. For older people looking at retirement in the next few years........eh.

I believe the market has actually done better historically when Democrats have been in office.

I understand. Usually on those statements, or at least on ours there is a 5 or 10 year history.

Just look at that.

I am sure you allocate in various funds based on the risk you wish to assume. They are usually managed by people who know what they are doing. In a volatile market due to unrest and weak leadership in Washington you are going to see down swings.

The Dow Jones is also up 9.7% since Joe Biden took office (34152 vs. 31118 on 20 Jan 2021)....

VTI's Total Stock Index is up 8% over the same timeframe (216.24 vs. 200.08)

Not sure what you're invested in, of course -- but most people have made money in Biden's presidency.

But that money won't purchase 30% of what it would purchase just a couple of years ago.

So if you make ten more dollars, but those dollars are only worth 2/3rds of what they were before,
people can say you made money during the time.

Yeah - that's true -- if money was worth 30% of what it was a couple years ago, we would be in big trouble.....

Fortunately, you just made that number up.

Then how can retirement accounts be tanking across the country? This article was written in June, and there are similar articles from numerous sources leaning both ways.


https://www.cbsnews.com

The U.S. stock market rout that has put U.S. equities in a bear market isn't just reducing the net worth of billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. It's also taking a toll on Americans' retirement savings, wiping out trillions of dollars in value.

The selloff has erased nearly $3 trillion from U.S. retirement accounts, according to Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. By her calculations, 401(k) plan participants have lost about $1.4 trillion from their accounts since the end of 2021. People with IRAs — most of which are 401(k) rollovers — have lost $2 trillion this year.

This year's stock slump is the most severe market downturn since March of 2020, when COVID-19 erupted in the U.S. Historically, 401(k) investments take about two years after a market decline of this size to regain their previous value.


"Anybody who has to retire when the market is down is in a bad position," Munnell said.

"Younger people, you can kind of wait it out — these things have come back time and time again," she added. "But people who use their retirement money to support themselves really suffer in this kind of event."

Investor concerns about spiraling inflation and growing recession risks are weighing on financial markets. Reflecting those fears, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday fellow below 30,000 points for the first time since January of 2021. The S&P 500 is down 24% from its record high in January, while the Nasdaq is down more than 30% from its November peak, putting both in bear market terrain.

Bubble losing air
Retirement accounts are the main channel through which most Americans are exposed to the ups and downs of the stock market. Nearly three-quarters of all 401(k) money is held in stocks, according to a Vanguard report from 2021. This year it's been mostly down: The S&P 500 has sunk 22%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost nearly 13% and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen more than 30%.

To be sure, many Wall Street professionals viewed last year's run-up in stocks as a bubble fueled by speculators looking for a place to park new money. But that doesn't make the loss any easier to swallow for most workers, who lack the time, skill or interest to try to time the markets.

"One could argue that these recent losses are simply wiping out the extraordinary gains that occurred from mid-2020 to the end of 2021, so that people are not actually worse off than before the pandemic," Munnell wrote in a blog post, shared first with CBS MoneyWatch. But human nature being what it is, "the prior gains may have felt permanent, so the recent losses are no less painful."


More risk, less reward
For many low-income people, the growing popularity of so-called target-date funds has also made retirement savings more risky, Munnell noted. Left to their own devices, richer investors tend to choose riskier assets, like stocks. However, due in part to automated retirement tools, the lowest-paid participants today are slightly more likely to have money in stocks, according to Vanguard data she analyzed.

Among workers with 401(k)s, those with annual incomes under $30,000 a year had 81% of their retirement fund in stocks, while for those making over $150,000, the figure was 76%.


Target-date funds are a popular set-it-and-forget-it option for choosing a retirement plan, with more than half of all 401(k) participants holding a target-date fund, according to Morningstar Direct, an investment research firm.

But data shared by Morningstar show that the most popular target-date funds — mutual funds that hold a range of investments and that automatically adjust according to a "target" retirement date — have lost between 10% and 22% of their assets under management this year. (Those losses are due to a fall in stock values as well as participants moving money out of their accounts, Morningstar noted.)

Paltry 401(k) savings
With the median 401(k) account having a balance of just $17,700 before the pandemic, this year's market decline would lop off more than $3,500 in value. A would-be retiree with a balance of over $81,000 — which would put them in the top 25% of savers — would see their nest egg shrink to just $64,800.

Such figures underscore how much riskier retirement is today than for previous generations of workers, the vast majority of whom had employer-provided pensions that legally entitled them to a steady monthly payout after leaving the workforce.

"When the shift from defined benefit to defined contribution [plans] happened, that shift meant that the individual bore the investment risk," Munnell said. "When the stock market is booming, it's easy to forget that. But when the market tanks, you have to remember that."

Because they are picking the time period from January 1 2022 through June 2022 -- over which the economy did decline sharply.... (mostly due to the war).

DJIA was up to almost 36800 on Jan 1 of this year, then dropped to a low of 30000 in June (when the article was written) before rising back up to 34150 over the last two months.

well, the teachers union lost 3 billion

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022...pected-to-get-nearly-10m-in-bonuses.html
Ohio’s teachers pension lost an estimated $3 billion in the last year.

But Robin Rayfield, executive director of the Ohio Retired Teachers Association, which represents about 20,000 retired teachers, said that those who retired in the 1990s or early 2000s are living on little money —some as low as $1,700 a month — since the pension is based on their income at that time they retired.

Retired teachers are generally ineligible for Social Security.

“Inflation is killing them.” Rayfield said. “I look at those people trying to live on that fixed income. They’re going to have to make a decision about medicines, food, whether to heat the house. We were promised a retirement that would grow with us in our elderly years. Some people could go back to work, but not everyone. Not when you’re 75 or 80. It’s pretty difficult to find a job. And there’s only so much they can do.”

I've lost around at least $35,000 in the last 18-24 months and that is just a comparison of current value to the previous peak value. It doesn't even attempt to account for how much has been lost if growth was even slow-to-moderate.
Still, I keep contributing 12% and my employer continues to match at 4 or 5%, but it literally seems to just evaporate each pay period. The balance doesn't seem to ever go up.

I've got about 12 to 15 years until retirement, so I'm not panicking and I know that I'm still buying "shares" in that 401k and I've only lost "value" and not real money, yet, but still.... it is quite disconcerting to say the least.

Covid

Then I don't know where the problem lies, but I do know quite a few people that have taken beatings in their retirement accounts over the last few years.

I know I won't be retiring this year even though I turn 62, lol. I'm going to work for a while yet, God willing.....I am very fortunate that I have a job that I like and should be able to do into my later years. I've been working pretty much since my paper route at age 11. I'm not sure what I'd do if I didn't have a job.

Actually, with inflation, your statement is incorrect imo.

But, speaking of cherry picking numbers?


Bottom line, combined, wife and I are currently down about 45-47,000 dollars from 2 plus years ago, while still putting in what we used to.

Add inflation to that, Lord only knows ......

I like your truths, but they hurt the Republicans who always state the left can do no good. I was a Republican for 50 years...no more because of looney toons Trump.

JFYI- 1960 bought an item for $100- what would that item cost in 2022- answer $960 dollars. Make sure you are making your money work for you over time. Peace

Trump Trump Trump /purple.

my 403b is down $35k since Jan 1... thankfully I have some other investments that are doing fine and I've got several years before I need to start accessing my retirement accounts...

Yeah - since January 1st everything is down (there is a war and all) -- but Jan 1 was the highest the stock market had ever been in history, so these things happen.

As I said, things go up and down, but people only see what they have and for the vast majority, the accounts are down, be it in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands.

In the end, that is the bottom line.

Inflation is real. I don't see how the "Inflation Reduction Act" cuts inflation by printing up another $800 billion we don't have. You do realize that every time we print money, we devalue the money currently on the books, right?

To put inflation in real terms, I found the following article a good read. It breaks things down in to simple terms, and out on the street, simple terms is all one needs to know. After all, when you are out buying a burrito, you aren't thinking, or even give a rip what some Harvard educated communist is telling you about economics.

https://dailyreckoning.com/revealin...e%20official%20rate%20of%20around%201%25

It isn't going to do much - it is just a name (which was designed 100% to make the act more palatable to Manchin). 90% of the act is the following four things: US energy security, Slowing Global Warming, Eliminating Tax Loopholes on Billionaires, giving the government stronger abilities to bargain prescription drug prices. Everything else is dressing.

Inflation is being pushed by war-driven scarcity (which is affecting the cost of oil and natrual gas), and the drought in Europe which is affecting crop yields. There is very little that the US government even could do about either one (save letting Ukraine collapse). Since these make up a large portion of the Consumer Pricing index, inflation is high specifically in ways that are hurting everyday people.


It's ... slightly more complicated than that.

More importantly, we aren't printing any more money due to the Inflation Reduction Act -- we will actually print less money in the future, according to the Congressional Budget Office. (I tried to add a link, which is at: www.cbo.gov/publication/58366 -- but every link is showing up as a youtube video today?


I think that's basically the dumbest approach to learning about something.... Economics is slightly more complicated than buying a burrito - and the complicated parts do happen to affect you, as we are currently seeing.

Come on man, I think you know that I know it is more complicated. I hope you don't think I am some dumbass. That said, sometimes you have to break things down to the simple. If not, you can keep complicating the complicated, which is what I think some of these people keep trying to do.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that dollar in your hand doesn't buy you that burger anymore. The how's and why's don't really matter at that point. Do they? You are a young, smart guy. Don't get bogged down in the mumbo jumbo.

Of course - you don't need to know how a computer works to get on the internet -- but that's a long way from saying that the people who design computers are brainwashed.

Inflation is happening now - and will continue to happen - and that is a good thing because the world with deflation is much worse than the world with inflation.....

People are complaining because inflation is relatively high now -- especially compared to the last 20 years -- but it's not even historically anomalous. There is also a tendency for the price of goods to change faster than your paycheck, which means that people feel pain now before pay catches up. Fortunately unemployment is historically low so pay will catch up.

My individual investment account is down quite a bit, probably 18-20%, but I also dumped a ton into it over the last couple years buying a lot of company stocks during the pandemic at low prices, and waiting to see them rise, some have some have continued to fall. I have about 13 years before I will be dipping into it, so I am not too worried, but still trying to pump cash into it.

It is also my "play account" it's where I take higher risk investments, and shots in the dark sometimes. It's like going to Vegas, you only bring what you are comfortable losing.

The 401k and the IRA aren't doing great, but not as bad, as they are mostly comprised of mutuals and retirement date funds.

JMHO, like the big L said, things go up and down. You might need to check what funds you're in...who's managing your money. And, what their cut is. Personally, I'm in oil pipeline stocks- bought when oil was -80 bucks, they go up and down- yet give you great dividends. Oil ain't going away for decades- then I'll be dead. Bulk oil and grain etc carriers are good too. Good luck

And there it is in a nut shell. The hows and whys don't matter as long as you can blame it on who is in power at the time. Because explaining what's really going on would be getting bogged down with mumbo jumbo.

This kind of inflation is not "a good thing" for people on a fixed income.

I don't need to worry about retirement investments, I know how the cycle works. I worry about toilet paper and chicken. The problem with inflation escalating at rates like we've seen is it becomes a "reset"... Prices never return to anywhere near where they were before the cycle began. It's not an "ebb and flow" situation, it's a 30% hike on the things we need (food and consumables) the most.

That's fine for all the young pups; I'm sure time, pay increases and changing habits will help to see your way through. For those nearing or in retirement, this is anything but "good".

Except 'Peen didn't blame anyone. He did make a reference to "printing money", maybe there are some that think that's a good thing, I don't know. You guys are dressing him down for simple common sense, that's bad enough. Don't try to make it look like it's his point of view is partisan because he doesn't need a chart, graph or economics lesson to see what's going on.

How is it "printing money" if the money coming in is income generated by taxing large corporations? And yes, glossing over the hows and whys of what's happening makes one only focus about when it happened and who was in charge when it happened. You don't need a graph or economic lessons to see what's going when people say let's ignore everything but "it's happening".

lol

Never mind

Just look around and listen to the Republican talking heads. And listen to the voters they influence. This isn't complicated. When people don't understand how things work it gets manipulated. That seems to be the goal here.

Got big plans for the weekend, eh?

I can't imagine being 90 and budgeting 1500 a month for bills etc and having to deal with inflation where my bills increase to 2000 while living on a check for 1790.

these retired people are going to be in a world of hurt...

You gotta wipe that bird's a$$ before you throw 'em on the barbie!

I can't imagine being 90.

Just noting that social security is indexed to inflation (based on the consumer price index), so will increase to keep up with costs:

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v67n3/v67n3p73.html

Of course, the response is sluggish compared to the continuous increase of inflation - the original version of Build back better was supposed to improve this by strengthening SSI, but it was one of the programs Manchin nixed:

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/...g-supplemental-security-income/?agreed=1

"SSI’s maximum monthly benefit in 2021 is just $794 per month, equivalent to roughly three-quarters of the federal poverty level for an individual. As such, SSI benefits are not enough to protect disabled people and seniors from poverty, nor are they adequate to ensure that beneficiaries can meet even basic needs. By contrast, the average fair market rent for a modest one-bedroom apartment in 2020 was $1,063 per month—134 percent of an SSI beneficiary’s monthly benefits."


"President Biden committed to raise the monthly SSI benefit to 100 percent of the federal poverty level—which would push benefits up to $1,073 in 2021"
***this did not happen


what happened was...
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/SSIamts.html

The table below shows the monthly maximum Federal SSI payment amounts for an eligible individual, and for an eligible individual with an eligible spouse, beginning with the amounts for July 1975. For 1976-83, the amounts shown became effective for July of the stated year. For 1984 and later, the amounts were effective for January.


2022 5.9% (increase) 841.00 (individual) 1,261.00 (married)

AHH The good old days.

I have no idea how you arrived at that figure. I know people drawing lots more than that.

What is the highest amount paid for SSI?

The maximum benefit depends on the age you retire. For example, if you retire at full retirement age in 2022, your maximum benefit would be $3,345. However, if you retire at age 62 in 2022, your maximum benefit would be $2,364. If you retire at age 70 in 2022, your maximum benefit would be $4,194.Jul 26, 2022

https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01897

Ssi is a different than regular social security

Ah, I see. Thanks.