DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2022 NFL Season Looking Back: Browns 26 Panthers 24 Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game

This game is tough to talk about because of the animosity between some of us posters regarding Baker. Hopefully, we can keep the subject matter about football instead of board personalities.

By the numbers:

Carolina is a 2.5 point favorite.

ESPN gives the Browns a 62.5% chance of winning this game.

The last total I saw was 41.5.

The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games.

The Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

Key Stats:

Transferring stats from one year to another is risky business, but there are a couple that I find interesting.

On defense, last year the Browns were:

5th in yards per game.
5th in passing yds per game.
12th in rushing yds per game.

On defense, last year the Panthers were:

2nd in yds per game.
4th in passing yards per game.
18th in rushing yds per game.

I think those tendencies could go a long way in how both teams game plan. To add on to that, McCaffrey is healthy right now, Cleveland's DTs look weak, and JC Horn, a dynamic 2nd year corner out of S. Carolina was injured almost all of last year.

Conclusion: I think both teams are going to try and establish the run early on and really try hard to stay ahead of the chains. Avoiding penalties will be paramount for both teams.

When Carolina has the ball:


Panthers

--They will try to get McCaffrey involved as much as possible. Both as a runner and a receiver.

--Their OL was terrible last year, but they worked hard to upgrade it including spending the #6 pick on the best LT in the draft and bringing in ex-Brown Austin Corbett from the Rams. It remains to be seen how this unit will perform.

--They will try to work their WRs outside of the hashes and try more than a couple of deep shots in favorable down and distance situations.

Browns

--I would use JOK to shadow McCaffrey on a significant number of plays.

--I would try to pressure Baker w/blitzes. He was near the bottom of the league last year against the blitz.

--Roll coverage to DJ Moore because Carolina is lacking a decent TE.

--Disguise coverages. Give him one look pre-snap and another post-snap.

When the Browns have the ball:


Browns

--Establish the run w/dominant OL and RBs.

--Utilize quick passing game. Don't take sacks and stay ahead of the chains.

--Target TEs and backs on passing routes. Quick outs to Cooper. Use DPJ to keep defense honest on deep fly routes.

Panthers

--Stack LOS and trust secondary to cover receivers w/out rolling coverages.

--Utilize run blitzes.

--Pressure Brissett hard and try to rattle him early.

Why each team will win:

Panthers

They can win if they get up early and Baker gets hot. McCaffrey dominates game as a runner and receiver. They really slow down Brown's running game and make Brissett beat them. They must protect Baker.


Browns

They can win if they run the ball effectively and mix-in quick passing game. They will need to at least not allow McCaffrey to go crazy. Pressure Baker early and often. Get him off his game and he will take sacks. Keep game close and make it come down to Baker playing at a high level in the fourth quarter.

You enjoyed typing that last sentence, didn’t you?

Good breakdown, I’ll say what I’ve been saying every pre-game discussion the past couple seasons: just keep running the damn ball, and pass it enough (effectively) to keep their D honest.

Great breakdown. I think McCaffery will be the key. If he has a big game then chances for a Browns win go down dramatically. If the Browns can keep him in check I believe they win the game.

One Key is stopping, / probably stopping Baker, one thing I've noticed in the past is when Baker leaves the pocket, he rarely leaves it for the middle of the field, ... he may take the one step- step up toward the middle and still intend to make a throw, but if he's going to give up, ... if he's given up on the pass and intends to run he runs to on the outside, and he runs and gets to the sticks often, more than on occasion. So if you are intending to stop Baker, one thing is to remember his run gains, are on the edges primarily.

One key to victory may be if Chubb and Hunt run Angry enough.
And if the Browns defense could actually get a touchdown, not even a play set up on the one, because... the offense could always screw that up. But if the defense could actually score 6 in the end zone by somebody, anybody on the defense,
that would be a plus. It'd go a long way to help what one may expect to be a very very overmatched offense esp. passing.

I think those numbers about the panthers, can all be dismissed.
The, not covering the spread, the defensive stats, ... 0-7 against the spread,
Carolina 2nd in yards per game, 4th in passing yards per game. as a defense.
I think you can totally throw that out because I think Sam Darnold was way worse than Baker Mayfield will be as their @uarterback.

Carolina 0-7 ats, because if we think in general Sam Darnold just doesn't get the job done, so he wouldn't have been. so that can be thrown out.
Carolina 2nd in yds per game. .. If Darnold was awful, then Carolina's opponents didn't have to do much, and didn't have to do much in yards, because if they could win with a little, they probably would and then run it instead of pass it too.

Carolinas defense 4th in passing yards per game.
Same reason, if Carolina didn't pass for much, then their opponents didn't have to pass for much, and after they took a lead could run it and hold the leads. So I think you can throw both of those stats out.

I think one stat that is often overlooked,
Is how the effectiveness of your own teams offense, to sustain drives and score, so much helps the same teams defense
and therefore the inability to do so, soo hurts the same teams defense

because ya keep putting the defense back out there, and keep putting the defense back out there, and even if they get stops and turnovers, if your offense can't do anything with it. It's self destructive.

An offense that knows what the heck they're doing, can be a defenses best friend.

So as always, a key to winning is the Browns offense playing really well. Good luck with that.

Nice thread Vers !

Could this be more of who has the better Special Team ?

Lots of talk about the QB's the O's and D's about this game.

Just wondering about the ST's part of the game.

What are the chances of Nick Chubb having 60+ yards receiving, and near I40 total yards and a touchdown combined in this game? He did in the playoff win.

I think a real key to the game is which teams DTs will show up

Carolina has a couple unproven DTs much like the Browns.. They just cut a high potential draft pick
Daylon Nixon from last year. They also just signed Henry Anderson at DE
Brian Burns is no joke. He will test Jedrick Wills.
No one is talking about Jack Conklin. He still is iffy for Sunday. That is huge if he can't go.
The Browns had issues In pass blocking last year

The Panthers added D'onta Foreman at RB.he might get a decent share of touches
If the Panthers are gashing the front 7.McClafferty is the straw that stirs that offense
But Ruhle might steal a page from the Browns and go run heavy with Foreman giving CMC a breather

You would put JOK to shadow McCaffrey on a significant number of plays.

I would put Taki Taki on McCaffrey on a couple of plays, as Bait.
Then Blitz Taki Taki at/after the snap, and Jam Somebody in there for the interception. ( I thought he was open, Taki can't cover the pass.)

I believe Cincinnati Baker is coming and he will beat us like a red-headed stepchild. But for the Browns to win, I think they have to dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball, shut down the panther's run game, and put it all on Baker's shoulders. then pressure him like crazy. I don't think it will work, but that's what they need to do. If Baker gets hot, the run game isn't going to save us. You can't give him any time to think or adjust, stay in his face the whole game. MG and company are the only ones who can save this game IMHO.

Special Teams are always important, bro. Most of us are high on York and it seems like our punter will be better than the Scottish Shanker. I worry about our punt returner. Hard to say about the coverage teams at this point. Carolina lost Zane Gonzalez in the last preseason game. I don't know anything about their punter. I would say field position might be a bit more important than usual in this game due to what I think both teams will want to do offensively.

Good synopsis. I think we could see a lot of jumping passing lanes like the chargers did a few years ago. Take away that first read and make him feel some heat.

I’m more worried about our offense being able to score 20 points

My only issue with that is it sometimes seems like KS goes to the game planning meeting and says, " What's the plan?", they give him the details and he replies "OK, so that's probably what they expect us to do, so run something else."

If we're to have any hope, at all, we have to hope that Preseason QB play doesn't directly translate to early regular season play.

Brisset was horrible, Baker was not. Brisset threw zero TD's and one INT, Baker threw two TD's and zero INT's.

In a nutshell... for the Browns to win, those two sets of stats have to be reversed.
Their passing D is every bit as good as ours, and was statistically better than us last year.
Even if they're weaker against the run, Stefanski has shown in the past against teams like the Chargers that he won't go run-heavy just because the opponent is bad against the run. Even if the run is working, we'll stay balanced - for better or for worse. Given that, QB play *WILL* be a factor, and whichever Pass D of the two very evenly matched Pass D's that is most able to capitalize on mistakes will likely be the difference.
On the flip side, we've all seen highlights of Carolina just chewing up other teams in the past with CMC... they are not afraid to run the Hell out of it if it is working. Our DT situation WILL be tested. I think they'll respect our ability to set the edges with guys like Clowney out there.

If neither O is able to move the ball well enough to put up 7's, however, then York is going to be the MVP.

I say we keep it boring on O for as long as we can (use our whole stable of RBs). If that's the whole game, then go us.

I would hope we can get pressure on Baker w/o blitzing. Sit back with good coverage and let Myles and Clowney go to work, maybe blitz folks on obvious passing downs. IMO, we need to key on CM (JOK and Harrison can really earn their game checks here). That's the guy that can make for a long day for us.

I don't think the Panthers are fooled into thinking they can stop a combination of Myles and Clowney. I look for them to use much the same O strategy I see people recommending for the Browns. The running game, mainly up the middle and the short passing game. They will do that in an effort to back off the blitz to make the Browns pay for blitzing. If they can do that effectively it will open up the ability for Baker to take some shots downfield. How well the Panthers OL will play is somewhat of a mystery. But I certainly agree that expecting their rookie LT to stop Myles is a pipe dream. But I think they know that and will provide him with some help in that department.

I also think they realize that Brissett has his limitations and as such will focus on the Browns running game while using single coverage on the Browns WR's. I know that Cooper is still a good WR, but as I have shown his stats have gone down over the past few years and last year they went down drastically over his 2020 season. He was relegated to the Dallas #2 WR position in 2021.

So as it pertains to what we will see form both teams I think they will be near mirror images of each other. The only real difference is that if the Panthers can use the short passing game to loosen up the Browns D we will most likely see more shots taken downfield by the Panthers.

The special teams as was mentioned may very well end up being the key factor in a close fought game. I think the Browns have a very big advantage in the kicking portion of special teams and have no idea who has the advantage in the return game.

Here is a link that is a preview of the game from a Panther's site.

https://www.panthers.com/news/panthers-browns-week-1-game-preview-matchup-series-connections-stats

Well, in Columbus, the key to the game will be to get to your local pub early since the Bengals will be shoved down our throats all season. This game is all the media has been talking about since Mayfield got traded to Carolina. How is it NOT on in Columbus? SMH

If Cincy was not playing Pitt then I think we would be on here in Columbus. I'm in the same boat.

Let the Panthers get receivers wide open and then their QB will throw it to the covered guy.

I don't think that is accurate. I do however believe many think Baker is capable of leading Carolina to a victory over a team led by Brissett at QB. That doesn't take a savior. It would only take above average performance for one game by Baker. Nothing savior like.

For the most part we agree. If you break the roster of both teams down, the Browns are clearly better in many phases of the game. On paper the Browns should be the clear winner. So I don't think we're far apart on this.

Stefanski was addressing a question about how important it was that Baker knew a lot about our team. He kinda downplayed it, but it has to be a concern for the Browns. He can give them a lot of tendencies on certain down and distances. That should help the Panthers on both sides of the ball.

On the other hand, we know Baker, too. I suspect we will try very hard to keep him in the pocket because Baker has stunk from the pocket. We will try to pressure him early in the game because he tends to fold when facing pressure early in games. Can't let him get on a roll because he does much, much better once he gets into a rhythm. Disguise coverages because he is slow to recognize coverages. Keep the game close because his 4th quarter numbers are at the very bottom of the league.

It will be interesting to see which side prevails in this battle of "knowing the opponent."

Garrett and Clowney have shown “tendencies” to disrupt the plans of OCs, and maul QBs while doing so. So, we have that going for us.

Limit McCaffrey and keep Baker in the pocket. I have no idea how we might do both at the same time.

I did like your idea the other day of using JOK as a spy on CM. Not all the time because that can be exploited if over-utilized, but JOK has explosive athleticism and tackling skills that would be suited to that role.

It depends upon whether the Garrett & Clowney we get is the pair that destroyed the Bears or got walked all over by the Chargers. It could go either way.

The only thing I remember about the Charger game is being stiffed by the refs on the PI call on us, when we had a two-score lead and the PI shoulda been on the chargers

We have great players in the secondary, a difference-maker in JOK and DEs that can run over a qb

Good points, lamp.

In my last post, I spent more time on how we could exploit Baker's weaknesses and I believe those things have a good chance of happening. I do have to say this.......they need to disrupt Baker early. His best games occur when he gets rolling early and gets in a groove. His confidence soars and he gets very streaky. We saw it against the Bengals a few times in the last couple of years.

j/c:

If there is any team that knows Baker's strengths and weaknesses best, it's the Browns. Apply pressure to Baker early and often, try to force him to his secondary and tertiary reads, and get him into his own head to unnecessarily create turnovers and inaccurate throws.

I expect to see a lot of Chubb and Hunt (maybe some Johnson sprinkled in) with short yardage throws w/ high YAC potential. I think Njoku will see a bevy of targets and we'll see how that equates to overall efficiency.

Apparently, the weather might be a concern although it is too early to tell at this point. If so, that reliance on the running game and short/intermediate passes may become more amplified.

Speaking of the weather, the Browns might be receiving a break. It's extremely hot and humid in the Carolinas this time of year. We've had a ton of days in a row in the 90s w/high humidity. I was worried how the weather might adversely affect the Browns. However, while Earl is quite a ways off the coast, it's affecting the weather in the Carolinas. The latest forecast is for a high of 79 degrees w/a 69% chance of light rain showers. The winds are predicted to be around 7 mph. Good football weather and we don't have to worry about the Browns be adversely affected by the heat and humidity.

Unless their HC is a moron, he knows the Browns will try to pressure Baker early. I look for that to be countered by a short, quick passing games on the part of the Panthers and some straight up the gut runs. I think it's going to be quite the chess match.

I also think we need to cut down on the penalties. It was a problem at times in the pre/season, and even in 2021

I think the biggest key, or deciding factor, is which Baker Mayfield shows up.

Our RB1 seems to agree:

Keys to Browns win, Garrett MUST dominate rookie LT of Panthers. If you can't get to Baker, read his eyes and bat down passes. Control McC with JOK, you called it- spy him nearly continuously. On O- JB stays true to form- no turnovers, throws smart passes....we run and run some more. ST- our rookie kickers smokes them in rain.....just win baby- long time since opening....Go Browns!!!

Solid post.

I mentioned blitzing in my first post. Here is a little tidbit. I was watching NFL Live this afternoon and they were talking about Lamar Jackson and his contract. Mostly, things were positive, but the host said that he did struggle against the blitz last year. She said the only QBs ranked lower against the blitz than Lamar were the rookies and Baker Mayfield. There are some qbs like Mahomes that you dare not blitz, there are others that you do blitz. I think we can blitz him a few times w/one of our DBs when we are in Quarters.

He probably learned in Indy because his first year there he played behind the OL that was so bad that the great Andrew Luck retired early because he was beat to hell and back. It's a shame about Luck. Truly.

I think the Colts OL got a lot better in JB's second year there. And I bet there was a large discrepancy between the sacks he took between the first year he played most of the season and the second year he played most of season. I think Luck played the year in between. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Sometimes it might be wise to look beyond the raw numbers that folks trot out as gospel.

Myles on a rookie LT being able to tear up a rookie

Hopefully Clowney on the right side getting in as Baker is rolling right.. due to the breakdown on the left side

And JOK just ripping it up ! because he isn't letting Baker know which way he's coming.