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So I think it was over the weekend, something happened.

The daughter of an important Putin advisor/ally was killed in a bombing. I'm pretty sure this occurred within Russia. The story is that a previously unknown anti-Russia group operating within Russia is taking credit for the bombing, and that their intended target was Putin's advisor (and not family members). There seems to be skepticism, though, that this group was actually the one behind it simply because not much is known about them. They kinda came out of nowhere.


Kinda funny, however, is Russia's official response condemning the death of an innocent and launching a murder investigation. It's funny in a twisted sort of way.


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at this point, its easy to think the russian government was in on this.


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Originally Posted by oobernoober
So I think it was over the weekend, something happened.

The daughter of an important Putin advisor/ally was killed in a bombing. I'm pretty sure this occurred within Russia. The story is that a previously unknown anti-Russia group operating within Russia is taking credit for the bombing, and that their intended target was Putin's advisor (and not family members). There seems to be skepticism, though, that this group was actually the one behind it simply because not much is known about them. They kinda came out of nowhere.


Kinda funny, however, is Russia's official response condemning the death of an innocent and launching a murder investigation. It's funny in a twisted sort of way.



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I doubt it's the case, but I did entertain the same line of thought that you mentioned. Basically, anything can be done to maintain public support...


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Putin ordered his military to increase in size.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-armed-forces-1b3a54763df874238478c1cd5d958fd5


Curious about what folks think about this. I assume this increase in size is to continue/bolster the campaign in Ukraine while presuming something akin to readiness in other areas. What'll be interesting is how this will be carried out. Supposedly, only volunteer soldiers are sent to Ukraine. I've also read that even Putin knows he has to walk a tight line between replenishing his fighting force and NOT implementing a draft... which would be extremely unpopular. As time goes on though, I don't know how much of any of that I actually believe.


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Skepticism rules my thoughts on this as well. This hasn't been going the way Putin envisioned and he has refused to even so much as call it a war. The Russian people are questioning what's going on now as well. They are seeing their troops coming home in body bags and don't buy into what he's saying at this point. I think the pressure is growing for him to put an end to this fast.


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Originally Posted by oobernoober
Putin ordered his military to increase in size.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-armed-forces-1b3a54763df874238478c1cd5d958fd5


Curious about what folks think about this. I assume this increase in size is to continue/bolster the campaign in Ukraine while presuming something akin to readiness in other areas. What'll be interesting is how this will be carried out. Supposedly, only volunteer soldiers are sent to Ukraine. I've also read that even Putin knows he has to walk a tight line between replenishing his fighting force and NOT implementing a draft... which would be extremely unpopular. As time goes on though, I don't know how much of any of that I actually believe.

the thing is that they're already having an unofficial draft. trying to get people as old as 65 to join, "highly suggesting" that prisoners sign up for a reduced sentenced, etc.

on top of recruiting mercenaries from the middle east. looking at everything that's happened so far, russia will make some territory gains, but then lose it because of trash logistics, self-sabotage efforts, and poor military strategy. hell, not even 3 months in, and they lost more troops than the US did in BOTH iraq and afghanistan combined.

it's not volunteer. it's voluntold.


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Good question.

From everything I've come to know (so take it with a grain of salt), I've wholly stopped paying attention to the words, laws, gestures, and any combination therein that come from the Russian government. Everything has an ulterior motive, even if that ulterior motive is nothing other than trying to confuse everyone else. Nothing they say can be trusted. This strategy was a problem from W all the way through Obama and Trump.

I actually think the Biden administration has meted out one of the better responses to Russia, especially during the Putin era. Hopefully they keep up with it. Not a whole lot of focus on the inner workings, gestures, and words of the Russians, but a quick declassification (done the right, normal way) of Russian movements to show what they are actually doing, and that information is shared with strategic partners and allies to create an objective picture that shows words vs actions. It adds a good amount of degradation to the Russian disinformation strategy.

To circle back to what you specifically posted, I won't pay the decree much attention until there are some sort of corroborating actions. If he does implement some type of a draft or conscription, I think it'll show that desperation has truly set in. The problem with new recruits going to an attrition-style battlefield is that they don't really know what they're doing all that well, compared to the vets. That would likely send casualty rates notably higher, which would garner more public dissent. The problem with Russia, however, is public dissent has to reach a fever pitch to garner any traction against a regime that demonstrates Putin's magnitude of despotism and draconian responses.


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Zolenssky should have every military unit, town, and village play a message on the battlefield, drop leaflets, or put leaflets all over the path the Ruskies are taking. The offer should be to surrender and live or to switch sides and become a citizen of a great democracy after the war. Place the Russian dead and destroyed Russian equipment in their path too. They would probably turn half his army.

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Olde Schoole.

Deep leaflets from planes.

You're showing your age.
Nowadays, this is done in tweets.


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Originally Posted by Clemdawg
Olde Schoole.

Deep leaflets from planes.

You're showing your age.
Nowadays, this is done in tweets.

Tweets? I don't understand bird languages. smile


We don't have to agree with each other, to respect each others opinion.
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Originally Posted by Clemdawg
Olde Schoole.

Deep leaflets from planes.

You're showing your age.
Nowadays, this is done in tweets.

Do you think Putin allows those soldiers access to TWEETS? Or did you just want to litter the battlefield with free phones? wink


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Originally Posted by OldColdDawg
Originally Posted by Clemdawg
Olde Schoole.

Deep leaflets from planes.

You're showing your age.
Nowadays, this is done in tweets.

Do you think Putin allows those soldiers access to TWEETS? Or did you just want to litter the battlefield with free phones? wink

Paper can't be hacked or blocked. It tangibly drops into your hands.


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Heavy fighting rages in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied south

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine claimed to have destroyed bridges and ammunition depots and pounded command posts in a surge of fighting in the Russian-occupied south, fueling speculation Tuesday that its long-awaited counteroffensive to try to turn the tide of war was underway. Russia said it repelled the attack and inflicted heavy casualties.

The clashes took place in the country’s Kherson region, where Moscow’s forces rolled up major gains early in the war. But Ukrainian authorities kept the world guessing about their intentions.

While independent verification of battlefield action has been difficult, Britain’s Defense Ministry said in an intelligence report that several Ukrainian brigades had stepped up their artillery fire in front-line sectors across southern Ukraine.

The port city of Kherson, with a prewar population of about 300,000, is an important economic hub close to the Black Sea and the first major city to fall to the Russians in the war that began six months ago. The port remains at the heart of Ukraine’s efforts to preserve its vital access to the sea, while Russia views it as a key point in a land corridor extending from its border to the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized in 2014.

Occupation forces have spoken of plans to hold a referendum on making the Kherson region a part of Russia and have pressured residents to take Russian citizenship and stop using Ukraine’s currency.

Ukraine’s presidential office reported that “powerful explosions continued during the day and night in the Kherson region. Tough battles are ongoing practically across all” of the area. Ukrainian forces, the office said, destroyed ammunition depots and all large bridges across the Dnieper River vital to supplying Russian troops.

The Ukrainian military also reported destroying a pontoon bridge on the Dnieper that the Russian forces were setting up and hitting a dozen command posts with artillery fire.

Russian state news agency Tass reported that explosions rocked Kherson on Tuesday morning — most likely caused by air defense systems.

Alluding to the talk of a major counteroffensive, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Monday that one “won’t hear specifics from any truly responsible person” about Kyiv’s intentions, “because this is war.”

The British said that most of Russia’s units around Kherson “are likely under-manned and are reliant upon fragile supply lines” while its forces there are undergoing a significant reorganization.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov maintained that its forces stood up well and that Ukraine lost hundreds of troops, tanks and other armored vehicles in Monday’s action. His claim could not be independently verified.

Ukrainian independent military analyst Oleh Zhdanov told The Associated Press that “it will be possible to talk about the effectiveness of Ukrainian actions only after large cities are retaken.” He added that Ukrainian forces had breached the first and the second lines of defense in the Kherson region several times in the past, “but it didn’t bring about results.”

“The most important thing is Ukrainian artillery’s work on the bridges, which the Russian military can no longer use,” Zhdanov said.

The war has ground to a stalemate over the past months, with casualties and destruction rising and the population bearing the brunt of the suffering during relentless shelling in the east and south.

In other battlefield reports, at least nine civilians were killed in more Russian shelling, Ukrainian officials said, from the Black Sea port of Mykolaiv to the northeastern industrial hub of Kharkiv, where five were killed in the city center.

Amid fears that the fighting around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant could lead to a catastrophe, a U.N. atomic energy agency team set out on a mission to inspect and safeguard the complex. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of shelling the area over and over.

Nikopol, a city just across the Dnieper from the plant, again came under a barrage of heavy shelling, local authorities said, with a bus station, stores and a children’s library damaged. And a Russian missile strike targeted the city of Zaporizhzhia, about 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the plant, Ukraine said.

In other developments:

—The first ship carrying grain from war-torn Ukraine for people in the hungriest parts of the world docked at the Horn of Africa port of Djibouti as deadly drought and conflict grip East Africa. The grain is going to Ethiopia.

—European Union ministers debated ways to ramp up weapons production, boost military training for Ukraine and inflict heavier costs on Russia.

—German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his country is well prepared to tackle a possible energy shortage because of Russia’s squeeze on European gas supplies. Russia has cut off or reduced the flow of natural gas to a dozen EU countries, raising fears ahead of winter.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...inIcvjjofWkjxF_P1nYMC9jHX3U0YEy-y4-fTN74


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Originally Posted by PrplPplEater
Originally Posted by OldColdDawg
Originally Posted by Clemdawg
Olde Schoole.

Deep leaflets from planes.

You're showing your age.
Nowadays, this is done in tweets.

Do you think Putin allows those soldiers access to TWEETS? Or did you just want to litter the battlefield with free phones? wink

Paper can't be hacked or blocked. It tangibly drops into your hands.

Russia has air superiority in that region so dropping paper leaflets from planes is not an option.


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lmfao maaann....

Report: Drunk Russian soldiers in Kherson fired assault rifles at FSB officers in deadly incident

https://www.yahoo.com/news/report-d...ficers-in-deadly-incident-001518057.html

When Viktor Zolotov, director of the Russian National Guard, briefed his boss, President Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday on the status of military operations in Ukraine, one remark in particular stood out.

“I especially want to emphasize that we feel the support of the population in the liberated territories,” Zolotov told a stone-faced Putin.

In reality, Russia has been struggling to rally the support of its own troops, according to internal government documents obtained exclusively by Yahoo News that detail drunken acts of insubordination six months into Putin’s invasion.

The documents include an incident and homicide report by the Russian Investigative Committee’s Military Investigations Department for the Black Sea Fleet regarding a June 19 incident in which three Russian soldiers were shot and killed and two others wounded in a gun battle with officers of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor agency to the KGB, at a bar in Kherson City, on the banks of the Dnieper River.

The city lies at the epicenter of an oblast that has been occupied by Russian forces since late February and which Ukraine yesterday appeared to launch operations to recapture. Details of that operation are hard to obtain, as Kyiv has announced a media blackout of ongoing military activities. But videos posted to social media show a series of Ukrainian artillery strikes on military installations, weapons and ammunition depots and key bridges have continued throughout the last 24 hours. In response, Russian air defenses have been activated throughout the oblast.

Kherson Stremousov, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson, has fled the region and even recorded a video Tuesday from a hotel in Voronezh, Russia. Meanwhile, there have even been unconfirmed reports of gunfire in the Pivnichny and Tavriiske neighborhoods of Kherson.

Russia’s equivalent of the FBI can at least attest to gunfire in Kherson city two months ago — between Russians.

According to the Investigative Committee’s report, at about 8 p.m. on June 19, Igor Yakubinsky, Sergei Privalov and D.A. Borodin, three officers attached to the sub-division Military Task Force No. 9 of the FSB entered the Food Fuel cafe on Ushakova Avenue when they discovered two contract soldiers, Sgt. Sergei Obukhov and Junior Sgt. Igor Sudin “idly spending time, consuming alcoholic drinks,” according to the Investigative Committee documents.

The FSB officers remonstrated with the enlisted men for drinking while in uniform. Obukhov responded by removing his sidearm and firing rounds into the floor, the report stated. Privalov tried to grab the gun, whereupon Sudin started spraying the security servicemen with rounds from his AK-74 assault rifle, as Privalov and Yakubinsky returned fire.

Obukhov, Privalov and Yakubinsky “died on the spot,” according to the documents, while Borodin and Sudin were “hospitalized with injuries of varying degrees of severity at Federal Naval Clinical Hospital No. 1427 of the Russian Defense Ministry, located in Sevastopol,” in occupied Crimea. A fourth FSB officer, unidentified in the documents, fled the site.

Obukhov, 28, and Sudin, 31, both belonged to a Russian military unit known as the 8th Artillery Regiment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The shootout, which is now subject to a criminal case under the purview of V.O. Savchenko, an official in the Military Investigations Department, is the latest example of problems involving military discipline among Russian soldiers in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Reports of Russian soldiers’ alcoholism have been rampant in Ukraine and morale has suffered as Putin’s war drags on without achieving its primary goal of regime change.

In Kherson, especially, Russian occupiers have been the targets of presumed Ukrainian guerrilla activities including assassinations and patrol ambushes. Earlier this month, Sky News quoted a local Ukrainian journalist in Kherson who told the outlet that in the suburbs of the city Russian soldiers parade around hammered, “a bottle of alcohol in one hand, a machine gun in the other.”

_________________________

for those who need a summary, russian soldiers continue to be outed as jokes, and the wheels continue to fall off internally.


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Too bad Putin still has his finger on the button. It’s going to take a high level hit to remove the beast before he presses it.


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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Ukraine seems to be beginning to cash in on the work they've put in degrading Russian logistics/supply. Their counteroffensive seems to be going well, though there are reports of heavy costs in terms of casualties.

Russia seems to be unable to focus on more than 1 area at a time, allowing Ukraine to capitalize when Russia shifts it's A team (or at least what's left) to it's main priority.

Reports that Russia is now getting equipment from North Korea. Jeez....


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I'd say at the current time your synopsis is accurate. I just can't help but wonder that with Russia having so many more people and the ability to send more and more troops the battle of attrition over the long haul won't take its toll on Ukraine. I'm just wondering how long Ukraine can afford to take on heavy casualties with a much smaller manned military.


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I read somewhere that they've been laying back and letting Russia over-extend itself while they were going to work on supply lines and strategically degrading Russia's front line. Now they're trying to cash in on those body shots.

The article in Forbes I read about Ukrainian casualties was about a specific battle for Kerhson. To your point, they're going to have to limit those costly wins if they're going to successfully push Russia all the way out. Most of the reporting is actually being done on Russia and its ability to maintain a capable fighting force.

I've noticed that there is tremendous hesitancy to report any sort of negative news regarding how Ukraine is doing, and anything is that is reported is very measured. My hope is that is because they are actually doing that well. They do seem to do a really good job of dictating the pace and flow of the conflict now that Russia has established static lines.


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That lack of details you mentioned is also what I've seen. That's why it makes me have to guess and wonder the details of what's going on with the Ukraine side of things.


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Ukraine military needs to keep leaving those cases of vodka in easy reach for those new Russian recruits to help even the odds.

That strategy seems to be working as good as any..!




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It does appear that the Russians are experiencing hefty issues when it comes to manpower issues, as there have been multiple reports that they are looking to recruit out of prisons, and raise the cap on recruitment age. I think I also saw they were trying to get the wounded back into battle. Here is just one article to bolster that:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...er-shortages-us-intelligence-2022-08-31/

I like you, was somewhat confounded when this was reported, because, like you mention, Russia has put a lot of resources and focus into the size of its military forces.

I was actually talking about this with some colleagues of mine and we noted the potential areas of asymmetry which play in Ukraine's favor:

1. The main military focus of Russia is Ukraine, but with their military size and prowess, they also have other areas that require their attention (Syria, drills with China, the shear land mass of their country, the Pacific, etc.). Ukraine can just focus on Ukraine.

2. Where the war is being fought. Russia is close to home, but it is not at home. It's still the invasive force. This requires a lot more manpower to not only man the front line, but also to supply the front lines. They have really struggled on this logistics front. Their lack of efficiency and proper planning means they need to throw more manpower at the situation now than if they had properly done so in the first place.

3. Manning the battlefield asymmetry. Russia obviously has a lot more tanks and a lot more of your conventional weaponry, columns, movements, etc. This in and of itself requires a lot of manpower just to move, let alone to fight. However, all the Ukrainians need is a guy with a mounted, shoulder-fire weapon to destroy a tank manned by 3 people. It seems like this might be compared to the Vietcong vs US Armed forces dynamic.

In any event, I hope that they both retake ground and especially trigger the "demoralization" factor for the Russians. At some point, I hope more and more of their front line troops just start to ask themselves "why the eff are we here????"


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This is pretty funny. Ukranians trolling Russians with their own recruitment video. Starts at the 23sec mark.



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That's awesome.


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Last edited by OldColdDawg; 09/10/22 11:51 PM.

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That was a good video. Really shows the clunkiness of the Russians in terms of their logistics and agility.

I do have to imagine Kherson and Crimea is an ultimate goal and will be more difficult. With Russian forces already allocated there, I’ll be interested to see what their plans to retake it are.


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Ukraine is doing great for a relatively small country....they CAN'T sustain manpower losses for long period. Unless they have thousands of volunteers....who fills the void when a guy or gal is wounded, killed, or captured. Who knows....their manpower has a limit.


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Good video, get real. I watched it and it showed three vehicles destroyed on road- looked like SUVs- and a tank ran around and a SQUAD of guys watched a flag go up....a US local national guard company would be more impressive- and most active duty guys LAUGH at NG troops.


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Huh?


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Originally Posted by hitt
Ukraine is doing great for a relatively small country....they CAN'T sustain manpower losses for long period. Unless they have thousands of volunteers....who fills the void when a guy or gal is wounded, killed, or captured. Who knows....their manpower has a limit.

Asymmetric warfare with really good Western-supplied weaponry can carry them quite far.
We bled the Soviet Union dry that way in Afghanistan. It's proving even easier to do to Russia in Ukraine.


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... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.

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The big Russian bear is being exposed. Putin wants Russia to be a "super power again". Like his buddy, Trump- "Make America Great Again". My biggest fear- Putin is dying and he wants what he wants. What is keeping him from using "tactical nukes"? JMHO, we are the only country to use nukes/ what keeps him from using them to save face? Pray it doesn't happen.


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This whole thing is crazy, had to post it from fox news:

Putin's call for Russian conscripts will require arms Moscow doesn't have, NATO chief says

https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin...-arms-moscow-doesnt-have-nato-chief-says

the difference between projecting strength and actual strength is being broadcast for all to see. i keep saying it and will continue to do so: this aint Nam. this aint WW2. modern warfare is not fought like that anymore. this is what happens when you're stuck in your ways, you become incapable of growth. now you out here buying equipment from - LMFAO - NORTH KOREA, still trying to recruit mercenaries from other countries, your own FULL time soldiers are jumping ship or getting they asses beat, and so many other failures.

seriously, how trash you gotta be that you can't even keep supply lines in tack and you literally live RIGHT BY the country you're invading? that should be the ONE advantage you have that's a layup. but nope, fumbled that too.

and once again, gotta threaten nuclear strikes over and over again, because the reality is, Vlad and the Russian military got exposed as frauds.

as i've said, this aint Georgia and Kazakhstan.


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Protests are breaking out across Russia over Putin's call for troop mobilization order.....



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oh yea, this is the difference between having allies and flying solo dolo.


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Putin's Generals need to end this.


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Originally Posted by OldColdDawg
Putin's Generals need to end this.

they should, but i wonder if they're hoping that someone else does it for them. if they do it, could be civil war, nasty fight for control of the state. someone else does it, say a strike or staged battle, can play off a peaceful transfer of power, and maybe avoid serious domestic decline and keep stability.

but whatever happens internally, i don't care. thats a russian problem. nevermind ukraine, the russian generals needs to be worried that Putin would try to drop one on his own country.


“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

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But this time he said he's not bluffing when it comes to nukes.


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It's more their style to say he came down with a serious disease which requires hospitalization, and then 3 days later, he's dead.

They could also take a page out of his book and talk about how he fell from the top floor of the Kremlin, or fell overboard during a fishing expedition.


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